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PaperclipPerfector  25d ago (text post)   2393 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for March 23, 2025

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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How do you think that Trump determines which goods will have tariffs when, and at what rates? Some non-comprehensive possibilities:

  • He's being coached by lobbyists representing special interests which stand to gain.
  • Advisors are doing some kind of analysis to inform the tariffs - like "We import more of [Good X] than we export, so we must tariff it", or "We have a trade deficit with [Country Y] so we must tariff them"
  • They are a bludgeon to get other things - Trump or advisors care more about concessions than the tariffs themselves.
  • "Vibes" or something similar is the deciding factor - a dislike of [Good X] or [Country Y] turns into tariffs without better justification.

Equifax doesn‘t have my current residential address on file, which has caused me to be denied for a credit card application. (They also, weirdly, have my current legal name on file as a “former name”, despite all banks I'm with having my current legal name on file; this has not proven an issue for lenders, however.)

Equifax has completely refused to add my current residential address to my record. In reply to my sending them (after they requested this over the phone) legible, color, double-sided, current copies of both my Driver License and Social Security card, they sent me a letter requesting the same documents again; when I called them to ask what was up, they stated vaguely that they were “unable to validate” the documents I sent, and the representative I spoke with claimed to be unable to see any specific reason for this failure.

I contacted the CFPB, who (despite the shutdown) claimed to have forwarded my dispute to Equifax. I never heard anything back on that channel.

I contacted my state Attorney General's office, who contacted Equifax on my behalf, and eventually forwarded me the letter they got in reply from Equifax, which demanded the same documents (social security card plus driver’s license), asking me to let them have a crack at it:

… in order for this Office to take any action, it will be necessary for you to forward to me the requested documents (see enclosed [letter from Equifax]). This information will assist in the circumstances of your complaint.

I'm going to send this attached letter to the AG office; is there anything else I should add?

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A long time ago @Lewis2 made the following accurate (I think) sociological assessment:

Long afternoon naps and constantly falling asleep in front of the TV (or at least, constantly watching TV) are traits I would associate with lower and lower-middle class suburbanites and urbanites. Most of the older men I know are (semi-) retired farmers, small shop owners, professors, or blue- and white-collar workers who saved enough to be solidly middle class. These old men still help with the farm, cut firewood, paint the siding, clean the gutters, mow the yard, garden, hang out with their friends, golf, do a bit of carpentry or mechanical work, and so forth. Even in their old age, they’re typically still quite a bit stronger than their wives, which enables them to continue doing the more moderately physically-demanding tasks for longer.

It caught my attention back then because the first sentence is a perfect description of my father, even though he technically counts as a more or less solidly middle class suburbanite. It made me think about the everyday lives of the plebs and the various ways this life trajectory is markedly different from that of the classes above them in the social hierarchy. I’ll offer some arguments about this here, as I don’t think this would be valid content in the culture war thread.

One sociological observation I’ve read on dissident blogs is that the plebs and their rulers have radically different notions of retirement and leisure. Middle-class and upper-class youths are conditioned from early on to have low time preference, so they generally have at least a vague idea that a proper life goal for themselves should be a comfortable retirement spent travelling and doing other fun stuff after a long and fancy career. This, on the other hand, entails that their youth is to be focused on studying, busting your ass, networking, building connections, learning marketable skills, keeping up appearances. It’s obviously no fun, but it’s still necessary.

For the pleb, such considerations don’t appear, one obvious reason being that high time preference is the norm for him. The argument that he should plan ahead for a long and happy life would seem laughable to him and doesn’t even occur to him. The lives of plebs are uncertain and messy. As far as they’re concerned, the time to have fun, feel unburdened and do what you want is in your youth, because you cannot be sure about what comes later. In other words, their lives are generally front-loaded.

If you also consider that the only jobs available to the plebs are the shitty menial jobs, whether they entail physical labor or not, this means that the plebs doubly exploit themselves: they perform shitty jobs that heavily tax either the body or (in the case of shitty office/cubicle desk jobs and the like) the mind while at the same time routinely endangering their health: eating crappy processed/fast food all the time, binge-drinking, using all sorts of shitty illegal drugs, abusing prescription drugs, smoking, staying up late and not having enough sleep in general, partying, developing addictions etc. The combined effect of all of this is that the pleb turns into an overall wreck by the age of 50. What does this mean exactly? Your knees and back give out, and your liver and heart are all fucked up. Just moving your arms around can be painful in itself. In general, you’re in constant pain, and can call yourself lucky if you don’t get addicted to painkillers. Even if you have a nice garden/backyard, you can no longer cut firewood, paint the siding, clean the gutters, mow the yard, garden, do carpentry etc.

You never had much intellectual or spiritual curiosity to begin with, and the goyslop/prolefeed you’ve been watching all your life on the TV or your phone has rotted your brain as well. And when you stop working and retire, you lose the one source of daily stimulation and sense of direction and purpose you still had. This is the thing that explains “long afternoon naps and constantly falling asleep in front of the TV”. Never in your life did you read literature or had any interest in history, culture, arts etc. and it’s not like you’ll start to do this when you’re old already.

You become bitter and irritated, staring into the void of the abyss as Nietzsche described it. Most of the friends you used to have are now dead, crippled or sick and require regular care. Once you retire and your children reach the age when they no longer need to be looked after and it’s no longer necessary to organize events where they can play and hang out with other kids, you no longer have much of a reason to interact with your acquaintances of the same age, and your social circle erodes and eventually disappears. This is why elderly male social alienation/isolation is a big issue.

Again, all of this experience markedly differs from that of the middle and upper classes. I assume many of the regulars here belong to these classes and yet not have a general awareness of this, which is why I posted it here. (I don't think it belongs to the culture war thread.)

So the word is that the S&P500 is going to return pretty low returns for the next 15-20 years due to excessive P/E ratios that’d show there isn’t enough earning being done to justify the valuations. People are saying expect annual returns of 4 percent or so. Can this really be true? I’m the kind of guy who just wants to invest in a simple ETF and forget about it. Until now I’ve chosen the SP500 for that, now wondering if I should be doing some rebalancing, but don’t want to sell during a downswing.

It's not just people talking. Vanguard forecast 2.9% - 4.9%.

Source (from last week)

for the next 15-20 years

Nobody knows what's going to happen in the next 5 years, let alone 15-20.

Would you expect anyone to predict the world we live in today from 5 years ago?

Now stock markets are all about prediction and so we have to make bets based on what we think will happen. But it seems extremely bold to make such a long-term prediction that nothing big will be discovered in the next 15 years, there'll be no epoch-shaking events! I also think big things in AI are imminent and being realized, 15-20 years is a very conservative timeline for transformative development on that front.

AI is going to destroy cataclysmic amounts of value in so many middlemen sectors (like almost all of SaaS) as productivity surges and the jobs market craters. Hard to pick winners or losers; capitalism itself might radically change or vanish entirely. I’ve purchased some land and a small place in a remote-ish corner of NW Europe where my spouse has some connections, have something somewhere random in the US, and a relatively conservative portfolio in the market (although my work and being an American abroad makes all but the most basic strategy almost impossible). Weird things are about to happen.

Seems like so much hinges on AI takeoff. Makes me nervous because so far there has not been any productivity gains. I know it’s still early though.

Anyone have good reading on a hypothetically optimized placebo effect?

From Wikipedia:

The administration of the placebos can determine the placebo effect strength. Studies have found that taking more pills would strengthen the effect. Capsules appear to be more influential than pills, and injections are even stronger than capsules

If the person dispensing the placebo shows their care towards the patient, is friendly and sympathetic, or has a high expectation of a treatment's success, then the placebo is more effectual.[42]

Also neuroticism is a predisposition factor that enhances placebo effects

I have a feeling there are many more factors to this, but I don’t really want to go through numerous dry textbooks to find it… maybe there’s a meta study I can find

Why has the rule enforcement been so lax ever since we moved from /r/themotte? Or is that a false impression?

I want to go with “false impression.” It’s hard to see the BLR-era Motte as a bastion of law and order. People were furious about Floyd, Rittenhouse, COVID, etc. On the other hand, I sampled a random thread and was pleasantly surprised. So I don’t really trust my intuition here.

There is one big source of tension for me. I only want to ban people for flagrant offenses, but I also only want to warn them for rare ones. That kind of ties my hands when a user constantly shits out low-grade violations.

I've only been a mod since the migration to this site, but my personal experience doesn't match yours. My impression is that things are as they were, though I understand better what an uphill task moderation can be by virtue of being one.

As @roystgnr notes, even a small forum like this is too large for a small team of moderators (unpaid! working out of the kindness of their hearts!) to catch violations by reading every single comment. I'm too gainfully-employed to manage these days, and there was a time when I read every single comment posted.

We rely heavily on reports and user sentiment.

We also have rules that need a lot of subjective interpretation at times. This can be taxing, especially when we usually try to give substantive explanations for moderation actions instead of "get rekt". Mostly. Paradoxically, more minor and subtle violations demand more from us than gross ones. The average user isn't seeing the blatant spam.

Whenever I notice a public complaint that a rule isn't being enforced, the conversation goes something like

Complainant: "Why didn't you mod this?"

Mod: "Why didn't you report this?"

Complainant: something in between "Oops!" and "It's not my job to educate you!", depending on whether they're about to improve or just flame out.

Obviously from a normative sense I'm on the side of the mods here, because asking volunteer users to report violations as they see them is less burdensome and more scalable than asking volunteer mods to proactively police every comment posted, but from a positive sense maybe being more isolated now is making the system work less well? Judging by vote scores, even here many people have trouble understanding that the standard is not supposed to be "click the down arrow if you disagree", and I suspect "don't report rule violations if you don't disagree" is a equally popular misunderstanding. Reddit always provided an influx of people of all political persuasions who stumbled onto the subreddit, which was probably a good source of not-all-false-positive reports that's dried up here.

I'm a fairly active reporter, only a small percentage of things I report get acted on, and the exchanges when I complained in the open that no action was taken were maybe about 50/50 between very late responses insinuating that it was unreasonable to expect action to be taken quickly, and dismissals with either no particularly coherent reason given or some form of messenger-shooting ("we get lots of people wanting their outgroup to be moderated more").

What rule do you think is not being enforced enough?

Not OP, but in my view the least enforced ones are "don't wage the culture war" (typical violation: "how do we best organise to end immigration?"), "write like everyone should be included" (typical violation: "$outgroup behaviour is a disgusting perversion and I am tired of pretending otherwise") and the one against "boo outgroup" posting.

I agree with this.

Maybe this is better suited to the Wednesday Wellness thread, but what is a good workout routine for an overweight forty year old man? I actually love lifting. I did power lifting in high school and would love to do the “big four” (bench, squat, deadlift, overhead) in addition to assistance exercises. There are so many plans and progressions out there. It’s overwhelming.

I appreciate the advice you were already given. Stronglifts 5x5 looks like a great program. My question is how you guys keep this kind of routine up for any extended period of time. You're giving up 45 minutes or more to drive to the gym, get changed, wait for your spot to be empty, lift weight for 5 sets, then repeat a couple more times for other spots, then drive home, 3 times every week. Do you lift alone? How do you make it bearable? I'm not having fun when I do it and it really hurts that it's cutting into my already limited free time. I just feel like it's a bit overvalued in comparison to something like deciding to spend more time cooking at home, which I find to be a lot more fun and tends to save you money.

My question is how you guys keep this kind of routine up for any extended period of time.

Suggestions:

  1. You might just not like the Stronglifts format. I used 5x5 when I started, and it's very valuable for getting started, but rarely have I gone back to it over the decade since. Mostly, I find something like the Bulgarian Lite method, where I'm trying to hit a PR on something. Rarely do my lifting sessions last longer than 45 minutes. When they do, it's normally that I am enjoying them.

  2. You might not like barbells. Try kettlebells instead. They're easy to store and use at home, they encourage a certain degree of "owning the weight" and focus on reps and density rather than increasing weight, they're a little more explosive and athletic and fun than the classic powerlifts.

  3. There's no real reason you have to or should keep the same routine for longer than three to six months. You're likely to start to stall out after more than twelve weeks on the same routine. At that point, you should always be switching to a new routine, whether that's the same format with new lifts, the same lifts with a new format, something other than weightlifting entirely, just something new that you're stoked on. In the past year or so I've focused on the barbell clean and jerk, the moonboard, the kettlebell pentathlon, push pressing a 97lb kettlebell for 32 consecutive reps, hitting a max on the Landmine Jerk, and for the last four months on BJJ. I still mess around with the other exercises in between, but I'm only ever focused on advancing one at a time. When I start getting bored of one, I move on to the next. I'm 33 and I'm not making the olympics in anything so what does it matter if my progress is slower? I'm getting strong and having fun.

  4. You might like more of a social/class format like Crossfit. Crossfit is where I started lifting, at any decent box you will get good at the big lifts, and I think most of the people talking shit on it are either fat or not nearly as strong as your average Crossfitter.

  5. Home gym master race.

Because it isn't overvalued, it isn't expensive, it doesn't take up much time done right. Lifting weights and working out is massively undervalued, it's the best thing you can do for yourself. Strength is the master trait that makes everything else easier. Rock climbing, when I took it up, was easier because I was strong; BJJ is easier because I was strong when I started; team sports and living your life in general will be better and easier. The only thing it makes worse is getting dressed.

I never actually tried Stronglifts. What I tried for a few months last year was the basic beginner routine. It actually resembles Stronglifts a bit, I guess. I just liked how straightforward Stronglifts looked while still having the exercises I liked from the beginner routine.

There were fun parts about it, actually - I like overhead press and chin-ups, I am okay with bench press and barbell rows. Deadlifts and squats are things that scare me, because the weight is high enough that you could be seriously hurt for a long time if you mess up. That kind of goes for bench press, too. As I started putting on more weight, I started getting less confident in my form. With bench press, it was warranted. I took a look at some more videos and found that my elbows were too far out to the sides, and that you need to basically curve your lift a bit to do a proper rep (which was disheartening, because I had to go down in weight to do the proper reps). But I was never confident enough to put much weight on a squat or a deadlift, especially after I did increase my weight according to the guide for deadlifts and came away with a horrible tailbone pain to drive home with. I don't think I ever did more than 170 for squats, and maybe even less than that for deadlifts.

Seeing you write about kettlebells does sound fun. There are actually kettlebells at my gym. I've never seen anyone with one in the section they're in. Do you recommend a workout? Can you actually get stronger with a kettlebell? What about lower body stuff, can kettlebells do that? As I've said, I seem to prefer jogging over most resistance training, so maybe kettlebells would be more fun than barbells. There's also the benefit that I don't need to spend hundreds of dollars and allocate a ton of space for kettlebells.

I am open to class formats. I took Tae Kwon Do when I was a kid, and it wasn't boring. I didn't really get along with the other kids very much, but you don't really need to to have fun sparring or hitting a bag. Increasingly, the class got worse as I grew older. It started seeming to be for mostly young kids, and as I got taller and stronger, the only sparring partner was my brother, and the brutality of those seemed to increase over time, along with the weird feeling of bitter rage holding back inexplicable tears in my throat after a spar, usually after I perceived that I had lost or after having taken some blows with some high amount of force (not exclusive to him, I felt the same thing losing in a tournament). I never got injured since we were padded up and kept the hits to the pads. We stopped going due to loss of interest once I was 16 and my brother was 18.

That being said, I think most classes are usually the aerobic kind of thing, right? Hopefully there are some classes that actually build muscle and aren't 99% women.

So a class that has significant big lifting mixed in is CrossFit. You get competition, you get teaching, and you get lifting and cardio.

For Kettlebells any of the classic Pavel programs from Enter the Kettlebell will work and are simple to follow. Start with a 35#/16kg if you're a normal size man, and work to get to a 24kg/53# in a few months. Stick to the 24kg until you can complete the 100 snatches in ten minutes test. By the time you get there, you'll be in pretty good shape and pretty strong, go back to barbells and you'll be shocked at your strength in the DL and squat.

Okay. So I have to buy just two kettlebells, then?

You really just need the 16kg to get started, then a few months later the 24kg.

If you catch the bug like me you'll end up with a bunch over the years.

Don't buy an adjustable they're shit and gay.

Is this what I should start with? Not seeing any other real in-depth description of Program Minimum from Enter the Kettlebell.

Idk that version looks annoying to me.

https://theswissbay.ch/pdf/Books/Fitness/Pavel%20Tsatsouline%20-%20Enter%20The%20Kettlebell%21%20Strength%20Secret%20of%20The%20Soviet%20Supermen%20%282006%2C%20Dragon%20Door%20Publications%29.pdf

If you don't want to just pay the $10 or borrow it from the library. At any rate the basic concept is something like: Do a bunch of KB swings, do a bunch of Turkish Get Ups. Don't worry too much about doing "more" reps, and don't add weight, just try to do the exercises and keep your muscles under tension. Both Swings and TGUs are exercises where you have to focus on form and they're easy to pretend to do. The program minimum will not take long each week, will work your whole body, will accustom you to lifting weights. If you can master the swing, it gets you ready for everything else, it's the basis of the clean and jerk, the snatch, all the fun stuff.

https://www.amazon.com/s?k=16kg+kettlebell&crid=V6L0W7O31JJ9&sprefix=16kg+kettl%2Caps%2C268&ref=nb_sb_noss_2

Buy literally any cast iron 16kg kettlebell. I splurged on Rogue MiUSA ones, but that was after I already loved kettlebells and had spent a ridiculous quantity of time working with them so I didn't mind spending extra, and I was ordering enough stuff from Rogue to get free shipping. I also have some random enameled ones I got at a local store 14 years ago, and some off-brand Amazon ones in heavier weights I ordered because I got free shipping. AVOID GETTING KETTLEBELLS MEASURED IN POUNDS, GET THEM IN THE CLASSIC 8KG INTERVALS. I started with 50#ers I picked up at a local store, and it didn't matter to me at the time, but years later it pissed me off because the classic benchmarks are measured in KG and mine were always a little off.

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Sweet, thanks. I'll take a look at the Program Minimum lifts somewhere. Hopefully there's a video. I don't want to buy the book. I'll check at the YMCA if they have any kettlebells there. Seems to me like a 35 pound kettlebell is a lot safer than loading up hundreds of pounds on your back and lowering yourself, but I might just not be creative enough coming up with failure scenarios.

I did 3 great chin-ups the other day. I was proud. Someday I'll be able to do 5, hopefully.

It's simple. Put the gym in the garage.

Different things work for different people. Like any other behavioral change, it's nearly impossible to have a single across-the-board strategy that is going to work for everyone. Some that I've heard of or have worked for people I know:

  • Pick a gym on your way to work (if you're lucky and have one available), so if you take a shower there, it at least cuts out the extra driving time, and every time you drive by, it's a reminder

  • Spouse or other training buddy; some people like the 'accountability' of committing to meeting with someone else at a particular time

  • The various suggestions around turning something into a 'habit'; I know a bunch of people who like the whole 'atomic habits' thing

  • Similarly, whole groups of folks like SMART goals; there are various ways to track your numbers, and you can pick a method that helps you get a 'win' nearly every time you go

  • "Change your identity"; I've heard that various folks feel like they just have to change their self-perception. "I'm a person who does X."

  • Rational analysis of costs/benefits; they say that if exercise were a drug, it would be the single most effective drug we've ever had at increasing a whole slew of health measures; a particular one that some people care about is old age quality of life, they really want to be able to play with or pick up their grandchildren or whatever

  • There is some research on this, and people have tried to put together some conceptual scaffolding; might be worth checking out. I learned about some of it here and here; I'd also pay attention to the discussion on flexibility and versions of "slack"

  • Obviously, life is full of tradeoffs, but instead of looking at the next highest value use of your time, think about how you could identify and trade off some of the lowest value uses of your time

A training buddy or a spouse would fix the problem entirely, because I like talking a lot and you can talk all you like during a lifting session. I think, also, if I had a home gym, there would be no problem either because there would be no or very little wait and you could put on a podcast or some music or an audiobook (or fall back on conversing with your training buddy) and you would be in your house after the workout instead of having to drive home. Another way to solve it would be to have an actually fun hobby for resistance training like rock climbing. With rock climbing, every session can be something to remember. But lifting weights at a gym alone is the worst, most boring time sink to me in a way that cooking, doing flash cards, reading, flossing and brushing my teeth, or showering is not. Even mowing the lawn is more compelling. Jogging on a treadmill is more compelling, though not by much.

I wear headphones at the gym and always have a podcast on. When my wife first started coming with me, I didn't wear them, because we were talking more, I was teaching her, etc. Now, we still talk a bit here and there, but I'm usually listening or doing flash cards or something on my phone between sets. She literally brings a laptop and sends work emails or reads books or whatever between sets. It does help that it's not a super high traffic gym (and we go when it's lighter in the morning), so there's not a lot of pressure to hurry. I've seen people who seem to be on actual voice phone calls, which is mildly bad gym etiquette, but they've all talked at low volumes, so I haven't really minded much.

I would observe that these are pretty mild concerns in my mind. Like I said, we go in the morning, and for me, it's almost as much time for my mind to wake up and just get my body going for the day. Would I instead be sitting around, having a cup of coffee, reading something, and not really doing much while I'm really just sort of slowly getting my mind awake for the day? Why not have a cup of coffee at the gym, listen to something, and also move my body/get some exercise in instead? By the end, I'm alert and ready to go for the day; in fact, I kinda feel less good during the day if I don't go to the gym in the morning. Exercise literally is a hellova drug, just one that is really really good for you.

I really feel like these mild concerns can be pretty easily overcome, even by just finding a training buddy... at least, once you've decided that you are going to incorporate it into your lifestyle. The much bigger barrier is, "Am I going to do this?" not, "How am I going to slightly improve the quality of this?"

You're right, the continuous decision to dedicate yourself is the bigger barrier. When I find a new job, I will consider it after I've settled in and everything.

You use headphones, not earbuds? Wireless, I take it? Does the sweat ruin them? Do you ever do aerobic activities wearing them? How much did they cost, and how often do you charge them?

My ears struggle with earbuds; I've tried several over the years, and I have particular features that make them hard to work for me. Both earbuds and headphones are commonly seen in the gym. Yes, mine are Bluetooth. I haven't noticed the sweat cause any problems, specifically. I've had them for several years; actually got them for free. I did replace the pads on them not too long ago (~$10 on Amazon), but I don't think sweat was significantly accelerating their deterioration. I do wear them when on a bike or stairmaster. I don't run much, but I can imagine that if you don't have a good fit, they might move around a bit when running. I do see other people running with headphones, so it seems doable. I usually charge them with my phone every night. I know I don't need to charge my phone every night, and I don't think I've ever run out of battery on my headphones (even when using them for a lot more time just doing stuff around the house all day; maybe when I was traveling and just never remembered to plug them in). I just have a habit of doing that every night, since we started keeping our phones outside of the bedroom at night, we just stash them away where they charge before we're getting ready for bed.

There are a couple exercises where I'm reaching overhead that they kinda almost get in the way, but it's almost never a problem that I can't easily manage. That reminds me, you talked about having to wait for equipment. There are a lot of strategies for that, but just having some basic flexibility in what you're doing is super helpful. As you learn more, it's easier. Pretty sure you have no chance of getting a squat rack for a long time today? Ehhh, just do split squats today and come back to what you had programmed for squats the next time (massive aside, but I preach front squats over back squats). I know some people are overly anal about their programming, but that's pretty pointless unless you're competing. It's probably better to have a variety of sort-of-similar exercises in your toolset anyway.

The program that worked best for me (a man in his twenties) and my dad (a man in his fifties) was Stronglifts 5x5.

In both cases we made fairly rapid and sustained strength gains, it requires practically no thinking since you just slot your stats into a spreadsheet and it plans your progression out for you. Don't make the mistake I did and think you can skip ahead a few weeks at the start because the weight seems kind of small, it goes up pretty damn quick.

You can also transition straight into Madcow 5x5 when you're up to intermediate lifting.

Also I would also second the motion that cardio be added to your routine in some form, stretching is also a good idea but I've never been able to get that habit to stick, so I would feel something of a hypocrite. From personal experience I would say that getting enough protein, sleep and making sure to actually listen to your body and not push yourself beyond your limits is often enough to prevent injury, I say this as the weightlifter that has had the least injuries among all the weightlifters I know.

I'd consider adding some basic cardio like a daily 30 minutes walk if you aren't getting that in already.

For big four lifting there are basic resources like the book 'Starting Strength' which contains beginner routines.

On top of that I would actually look into pilates and stretching.

Maybe not all of these things at once as it would be overwhelming, but incrementally look into them. Sadly I'd probably look into stretching before I looked into heavy lifting if you want to save yourself injuries.

I'd consider adding some basic cardio like a daily 30 minutes walk if you aren't getting that in already.

Depending on how your schedule works out, breaking it up into several short sessions might even be better for you.

For big four lifting there are basic resources like the book 'Starting Strength' which contains beginner routines.

To supplement that I would add The Barbell Prescription: Strength Training for Life After 40. It's a bit like Practical Programing, but for the 40+ crowd. I would also recommend some type pulling, probably chins or pull-ups, to make it a big five.

What are your go-to news sources?

I always feel a step behind when it comes to the current administration’s actions. It usually takes about a month for the real substance—beyond the initial outrage-driven headlines—to reach me, along with the actual reasoning behind any given policy.

It also seems like much of the discourse is happening on Twitter, which is frustrating. I have a deep disdain for social media and have no desire to be more online than I already am.

Have to give a shout out to The Motte and the people that run it. It's a great resource.

I'd appreciate any recommendations you might have!

Realclearpolitics is a decent link aggregator, along with Realclearpolicy. You may get some mileage out of the other sites, too.

Similar to urquan, I'd mis-quote Twain. A man who reads nothing is uninformed, a man who reads the newspaper is misinformed.

For political news, I recently started watching Straight Arrow News on YouTube. Their whole deal is that they follow each news item with information on how the left and the right are spinning it. This is, of course, just as susceptible to partisan bias as any other news source, but generally the bias they present each side as having does seem to reflect what I notice about the bias each side is having (this, itself, is susceptible to confirmation bias on my part), and I think, at the very least, learning of the partisan biases along with the actual news information is helpful.

For similar reasons, I recently started watching the show Rising from The Hill, which follows news items with commentary by 2 commentators, one leftwing and one rightwing (the former seems to change often, while the latter is almost always Robby Soave, a libertarian from Reason magazine).

I use the Boring Report. Its an aggregator of MSM articles that uses AI to strip out everything but factual information about the events. It's not perfect, it does glitch out a fair amount and does things like only displaying the text of the site's cookie policies and stuff like that, and I wish it had better filtering options. You can click through to the articles its based on if you want to read the deceptive editorializing or see the unrelated photos. https://www.boringreport.org/app

I've been considering giving Ground News a try, but I'm still on the fence. I'd love to hear from any current users of it.

It's just an aggregator, though, which means it's no more of an improvement over its sources than statistics allows. It tries to help readers avoid left-vs-right bias, but I'm not sure what can be done to avoid journalism's more general biases toward clickbait, outrage porn, novelty, oversimplification, etc.

For the current administration's actions -- I'm not sure there is a news source that could keep you genuinely informed without just being outrage one way or the other. Things are moving too quickly for anything other than surface-level takes. The Trump administration seems to be doing the policy version of a gish gallop, where there's not enough time for anyone to form an opinion about any policy before the next big one drops. How people feel about that will depend on their politics, but it's certainly a strategy that's working in terms of drowning out opposition.

My response has been to disengage from political news. I get secondhand reports from friends and family on whatever drama's happening on Twitter and whatever the headlines are saying, but I don't read political news at this point. I used to always keep abreast of what was going on and even enjoyed talking about current events with people, but it's been so chaotic and so impossible to understand that I'm just numb to politics.

It's not what you asked, but my honest advice would be that there's no way to be more informed without becoming extremely online or devoting your life to exploring executive actions. The feeling you have is real, and it's shared by just about everyone.

I'm going to buy a house in Southern California (LA area) sometime in the next 3 years. I'd like to time the market a bit, and I'm wondering if anyone has any insights to what housing prices might look like in the Trump admin?

My naive analysis is that prices will trend downward for a couple of reasons:

  1. if immigration goes down then there will be more supply and prices will go down,
  2. interest rates have gone up recently, and that drives house prices down, and the market is still catching up to this trend (I'm more concerned about the overall price than the monthly payment for various reasons).

I'm going to buy a house in Southern California (LA area) sometime in the next 3 years.

If you're purchasing a house outside the city, my first concern would be wildfire risk.

That's a good point, thanks. I'm guessing that insurance costs are up, and it'll be hard to get a reliable quote before actually purchasing.

What I've seen over the past few years is that higher interest rates don't drive house prices down at all -- instead it causes would-be sellers to wait it out. You'll see a dearth of supply.

On number 1, I don't think less immigration will have anything to do with LA home prices. Illegal immigrants (and most legal immigrants for that matter) are not purchasing multimillion dollar homes in Los Angeles.

On number 2, I do think house prices are still adjusting to higher interest rates and that means prices still have further to fall. The problem is this doesn't apply to all geographies; California in particular is its own fucked-up brand of real estate. Rent control, the continuation of Prop 13, and horrendous inability to build new housing in CA skew the market so badly, higher or lower interest rates seem almost a non-factor. Now with that said, if you think a recession is likely in the next few years, which I think is a real possibility, I would expect mortgage rates to fall as the fed cuts rates. So while you may not see home prices fall, you can end up with a 4 or 5% mortgage rate instead of a 6 or 7% one.

My prediction: home prices in CA stay flat or fall very slightly. Buyers are priced out due to price leaving a smaller pool of buyers able to afford homes. However, the demand for LA real estate is so strong, even this limited pool of buyers will keep prices propped up. That, coupled with the low tax rates caused by Prop 13 (and the downstream effect of homeowner's not needing to sell due to low tax rates and thus limiting the supply) keeps prices steady. I do think tariffs and the chaos of the Trump admin may cause economic damage leading to rate cuts, so you may be able to snag a cheaper mortgage.

But who knows. California real estate is insane and we're living in a wild political time. If you have the money today, I wouldn't necessarily try to time the market. Just buy the house you can afford in the area you want to live in. Or rent. Renting in CA is an awesome deal compared to anywhere else in the US.

On 1, I will caution you that if Trump follows through on his promise for more high skill immigration but deporting illegals, house prices will not fall- illegals live in shitbox apartments or in trailer parks, not in houses, but high-skill immigrants are competition for housing stock.

This isn't really a question, but I'd like to announce that I'm effectively retiring from the Motte. I'm not doing this because I don't like arguing or haven't enjoyed my time here, but simply because I've started working on a personal creative project that's going to be taking up the time that I would have spent reading and responding to posts on here. As I'm still working a day job, I don't think I can maintain my presence here as well as pursuing what is effectively a second career. That said, if it proves to be a big success and I can retire from my day job, I'll likely come back - or alternatively if it turns out to be a massive failure and I become a bitter, jaded recluse I'll also come back.

Good luck man, hope it's awesome.

Best of luck to you!

I'll miss your commentary but I support this choice. Good luck with your project, and please succeed or fail quickly so you can get back here sooner.

Question- in the unlikely event Heim theory(fringe physics) turns out to be true, what does that look like in practice? Honorverse type hyperdrive? I know the only reason anyone pays attention to it is the promise of faster than light travel but I can't find a wiki-type overview in English or a romance language.

Knowing nothing about it I tossed a few queries into ChatGPT including your question. I won't just post it but I find LLMs useful for this kind of thing, in particular if you're willing to fine-tune questions.

Unfortunately I'm in no way literate enough about it to converse in any interesting way

Have you ever seen a neurotic bleeding heart black woman? seems exclusively like a white phenomenon, sometimes Hispanic and Asian.

Yes.

Yes, many second-generation African and Caribbean immigrants from an upper middle-class, college-educated background have this personality type, just the same as their peers of whatever race.

I'm not sure where exactly the "bleeding heart" line lies, but my (black) MIL is extremely neurotic and fairly liberal in her politics.

Would she cry over a wounded bird or a refugee?

Probably not cry. But I think she would be upset at either of those things.

Anyone who's been seriously hungry and slept hard should at least have some feeling there for a refugee (not one, of course, being housed in a hotel on taxpayer money). And some see a wounded bird and all they see is unanswered pain. Somebody else can see that same bird....and feel the glory. That last of course is a Terrence Malick line.

Does anyone knows of scientifically proven ways of rapidly learning to draw if you have absolutely no talent or experience? Talking about pencils initially. I know about the "drawing on the right side of the brain" already

I know about the "drawing on the right side of the brain" already

Before I read this sentence I was already preparing to mention it. Any reason why you'd need something else? For me, it unlocked a "non-verbal" mode in my brain that I didn't even know it could do.

It is 50 years old. So there may be something better out there.

If you're looking for something more modern, Jake Spicer's You Will Be Able to Draw series seems pretty highly regarded.

Yes there actually is.

The three things that matter are quantity, speed and deliberateness in that order. You want to be drawing as much as possible as quickly as you can(this is sort of related) while trying to acchieve an objective/criteria you are trying to improve in.

What you want to improve in at first is line control and your visual spatial sense. So having a line you want to put down in your mind and putting that line and its length exactly where you intend to relative to other lines.

All drawings start off as a collection of lines.

Lines are actually often called curves and you want to master the S and C curve, putting the inflection points at the right place etc.

The other part is recognizing what curve or line make up the parts of the form you want to translate on paper.

The actual practice is, depending on your personal interest and mental fortitude, either drawing random objects in front of you or (pictures of) naked people (lets face it, pretty women).

For quick early motivating success do objects.

Shit out a couple of dozen quick sketches of these things a day, focusing on one or two of the skills I named earlier. Watch a couple of Proko YouTube videos to get some pointers.

You will be able to greatly impress your friends in at least three months and be better than most "artists" in a year. You will never be satisfied with your own skill.

Additional things;

Drawing is not tracing a shape. Drawing is a form of information compression, the better you are the less lines you need to convey what you are drawing with the least bits(lines) as possible.

The confidence and elegance of the line is paramount. Lines shouldn't overlap, be shaky, or be something other than the permitted curves.

Never erase anything just start over if needed.

Draw lines in one steady stroke.

Never draw from memory, always use reference. The only way to learn to draw without reference is a ton of related reference work.

Never spend longer on a picture to make it more pretty after you have the shape and form down. This is much harder than it sounds and one of the biggest impediments to improvment.

This is how you scientifically improve your drawing ability. There's a million other skills of course, you can never master all of these. Shape is the most important though, and shape is all you need to be a great artist.

Shading, perspective, texture, weight, composition, colour, flow. All important but far far easier to learn(with the exception of perspective) and a huge info hazard for young artists imo. These are all things that you will eventually want to learn, but theres no cheat code like with shape, where you can put yourself head and shoulders above others very (relatively speaking) quickly. And the learning habits you build up from shape and form practice will be critical for these too.

Most artists use these as a crutch, putting makeup on a pig. They can make pretty pictures, but they will stagnate with a terrible foundation.

The reason most artists don't learn shape and lines is that it's really hard and requires extensive deliberate practice. The vast majority of creatively inclined people are more interested in expression and creation than improving their craft.

You learn to make very pretty fragments by doodling and drawing what comes to mind. This is very inefficient and you will never catch up to these people in the domain of aesthetic doodles.

You need to be prepared to draw a lot of ugly shit. It's like any other skill, only that it's so broad most people can get by with avoiding it and starting off making pretty little doodles but never outgrowing that. Most visual artists are actually very self conscious about this.

Edit: below you mentioned you wanted practice katas. The practice Katas of drawing are fairly unpleasant and demotivating to do, which is why they aren't taught to beginners. But yes, it is drawing something like the same teacup twelve times on one page in 10 minutes. Deliberately repeating and refining the lines from the previous tea cup.

The practice Katas of drawing are fairly unpleasant and demotivating to do, which is why they aren't taught to beginners.

Can you point me to them. I am engineer without any kind of creativity. I learned how to sharpen freehand and did the challenge of the gods on the original god of war. Can't be more unpleasant than that.

The rest sounds suspiciously like what drawbox peddle. Will give a try.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=3sWBc3qUet0 - Line drawing. I had great success with this.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=BKiopm83L8c - Lots of good exercises

I would personally also recommend the beginning figure drawing course by proko

But don't be afraid to just fill up an A4 page with whatever thing you want to draw that day. Choose a random object on your desk and draw it until the page is full. Organic shapes are better. People are best, but you can't step right into that one without watching a few videos or having someone teach you some basic principles. Never use a ruler.

What kind of drawing do you have in mind?

Studio drawing is really simple and straightforward, you just look between the thing and the page, and keep changing what's on the paper until it looks like the thing. I recommend charcoal.

getting something that is in front of me on paper, and getting something that is in my head on paper. Nothing fancy or abstract or cartoonish.

I don't know if there's any research into especially fast and effective methods for learning to draw. Art education is in general not very interested in finding out, since there isn't a shortage of people who can draw well enough with the current methods.

A drawing course will include something like the following:

  • A shaded sphere
  • Cubes in one and two point perspective, a hallway in one point perspective, the corner of a rooming two point perspective.
  • Negative space drawings. The space around a tree. The space around a set of easels. This is pretty important, and one of the things someone might not encounter by looking up individual topics. Especially, whenever there is an edge, you have to decide if the figure or the ground is darker/lighter, and provide contrast. Speaking of which
  • Contrast! Always figure out a way to have reasonably high contrast.
  • A draped cloth, preferably in charcoal. Preferably large. My drawing instructor made us draw everything on 18x24 inch paper. That's extremely tedious with pencils, but lovely with charcoals and pastels.
  • Basic anatomical proportions -- proportions of a face, proportions of a body, how many heads high is a person? How many eyes across is their face? DaVinci's human in a circle.
  • Some still life drawings, preferably with some reflective surfaces, perhaps silver, perhaps glass.
  • Preferably a landscape; some classes have students drive to a better location for this.
  • Figure drawings. The model might move every minute for warm ups, and then stay put for 20 minutes for a longer study. Sometimes after a few classes they stay put for over an hour, to allow a more finished drawing.
  • Critiques.

In my head there should exist some form of katas to do and practice to get better - the way they exist for everything else.

Keeping a sketchbook?

Ah, the good old drawing the rest of the owl-method.

Indeed. And since all the students surround the owl in a circle, you should also draw a slightly different angle than anyone else. Only you will know what your angle is, exactly. The teacher might make a mark or two and comment that since their head is near yours but not superimposed, those marks they made might not be exactly right.

The science of practice is going to have an effect no matter what kind of thing you’re learning. Variable practice, spacing, retrieval, elaboration. For instance, it is always going to be better to do 5 reps of A, 5 of B, 5 of c / d / e, all in one “session”, then just sitting down to do one technique for an hour. Always. And it is better to attempt to retrieve the technique out of your mind than looking back at notes; better to elaborate upon it with thoughts and examples and scenarios of your own; better to draw something you find interesting than otherwise (hence the nudes of art history); better to draw and then check your results like a test. And it’s going to be better to try fit in two or three short practices a day, rather than one long one every three days.

So, what are you reading?

Still going through my backlog.

Time is the Simplest Thing by Clifford Simak. Interesting read and I appreciate the additional character added by the zeerust.

City is undoubtedly showing its age but it had a big effect on me.

Oooh, I haven't read City yet but it's a comment much like yours that got me to check out Time is the Simplest Thing in the first place. I'll have to check it out next time I get a chance!

More than halfway through Kiki de Montparnasse. It's okay. I don't like any of the characters though.

Finished Uncivil War: The British Army and the Troubles. Found it interesting and a sufficiently unique perspective. Goes on a lot about how a core problem was the refusal of the British Army to really take action against Loyalist militias due to lack of resources and competing demands from height of the Cold War NATO to keep sufficient troops in Europe to counter any possible Soviet large-scale invasion. In addition to all of the usual problems often seen in COIN operations. The British Army didn't seem to spend too much effort on the problem-class of, unit builds up some local relationships, then rotates out after 6 months, new unit rotates in and has to start the relationship-building thing from scratch. Possibly inter-linked with the issue of apparently British Army divisions having their own independent identities and cultures not necessarily tightly linked with any other Army Division.

Also started and finished Blue Dawn which I found from the thread 2 weeks ago. I think I generally like the genre of Red-team action fiction, and I liked the Kelly Turnbull books, but this one just didn't seem that appealing to me. It seemed kind of cringe at times, the premise a little too farfetched. It's not like the Turnbull series isn't farfetched, but it seems to have the vibe of being deliberately and un-self-consciously absurd in a way that I find entertaining and funny.

Now reading War at Every Door, on the splits within the Confederacy in the American Civil War, which I found from this response to one of my older comments (I do get around to this sort of thing eventually, if not always right away). Just started it, but it seems there was a lot more internal dissent and resistance on both the Confederate and Union side than most popular summaries of the war pay attention to.

Recently finished Epitaph, by Mary Doria Russell. Competently written, interesting subject matter (the life of Wyatt Earp from the perspective of Josephine Marcus), and maybe it's confirmation bias but I thought her political inclinations showed a little even though she made an honest effort to be impartial.

Read Swords and Deviltry, the first book of Fritz Leiber's dealing with Fafhrd and the Grey Mouser. Entertaining, do not regret the read, but not sure if I really gained anything.

Currently reading The Worm Ourobouros, by Eric Rücker Eddison. Beautiful language, refreshingly antiquated world-view, but the world-building leaves a lot to the imagination. Or maybe that's not even a but; but actually works in its favor.

Next up: Ninti's Gate, by Matthias Pierce, one of the few youtubers I actually enjoy. Let's see whether he's any good as an author.

I went out with some male friends last night, hit up several (PRICEY!) bars in our downtown area.

Saw some small groups of ladies out. A few times I watched a random guy approach and engage in conversation, but they usually disengaged and left after a couple minutes, with no apparent exchange of numbers or anything. So not an obvious or dramatic rejection, but not a success either.

Question: Is "buy those ladies a drink" even a viable tactic anymore?

And if drinks are super fucking expensive ($14+ for a cocktail these days, so buying 3 would run you $50) how could you possibly justify the cost unless you had a legitimately decent odds of success?

Never use this tactic at an expensive bar, especially if it's early in the evening, when it's "pre-gaming" time.

Actually sound advice in any event.

You want to be the closer, not the warm-up before they get really sloshed.

I don't try to meet girls during nightlife any more, but even when I did I would never open by buying a drink (let alone drinks for her friends).

Sometimes I would after we'd already had a 15 minute conversation and I knew the connection was there. It was more likely than not that the girl would buy me one back.

Just don't start off with buying a drink. I've never seen it making a difference and if a girl shot me down for not buying one I would probably have been happy to dodge the bullet.

It is possible to meet girls in a bar. Having any success at doing so is all about stuff like your looks, how they're feeling that night, how funny and interesting you are to them, etc. Offering to buy her or her whole group a drink only works against you, as it makes you seem like a sucker who's too boring to just have a conversation with somebody, and will make you waste the critical first few minutes on boring stuff like figuring out what they want, getting the bartender's attention, placing the order, etc.

If they ask you to buy them a drink, 90% it's this guy is lame, let's see if we can milk him for a free round before we ditch him, and the other 10% is a shit test. It's never in your interest to go along with it.

The bottom line is always, only go to a bar and drink there if it's actually fun for you, regardless of whether there are any girls there or you might stand a chance of getting with them.

As someone with mediocre rizz online dating is still the way to go. Met the current gf and every other girl I've been involved with there with two exceptions, and one of those was a coffee shop cold approach which involved me waiting 4 months for her "tAlKiNg sTaGe" to disappoint her until she used me as a rebound.

I despise the apps with a passion, and ALL online dating sites have gone the tinder route of endless swiping with the occasional dopamine hit.

I'd tolerate it if there was a clone of Old OkCupid where you can actually zero in on the ones that are likely to be compatible. That's where I found the most recent Ex, but its clear they're no longer in the business of giving users control of who they see.

one of those was a coffee shop cold approach which involved me waiting 4 months for her "tAlKiNg sTaGe" to disappoint her

Aaaaand that's WHY I despise the apps. Even if you manage to make a connection IRL, they will still have dozens of digital suitors in line ahead of you, and absolutely ZERO pressure to pick one quickly, especially if they 'catch feelings' for someone in particular and now judge all others by that person's idealized standard.

Also I despise the terminology that's sprung up around the current dating discourse to mask how dysfunctional/unhealthy it is. "Talking stage" aka one of you is probably stringing the other along to maintain optionality (not always, I grant). "Situationship" i.e. you're [something] with benefits but neither side wants to be the first to admit their true motives. "Hard Launch" aka you can't actually be a real couple until its been explicitly announced via social media (yes, I remember the term "Facebook Official," hated it then too). Until then, you're a "Sneaky Link" a/k/a someone they're unwilling to even admit to seeing, often because it'd lower their social status if it were known. Or you give someone "the ick" and they drop you out of nowhere.

Blech. Don't normalize dysfunction with cutesy terms please.

"Rebound" is actually a decent description how that dynamic works, but its still an unhealthy practice imho.

Part of this is me getting older, but I'm also trying, against all cultural pressure, to treat everyone I get 'involved' with as if they're an actual human (until proven otherwise), and try NOT to poison the well for everyone.

Same! I hate those apps and how theyve ruined dating for everyone. Even if yiu dont use them, everyone else is if there was a movement to ban them like how they almost banned tiktok, i'd be a fanatical supporter

In my opinion as an alcoholic barfly who actually worked for the bar for a few years: maybe (in the right bar in the right location, but sure as shit not the bar I worked at), but no. For context, the bar I worked at catered (or at least aspired to cater) to grad students and professors in a college town, wound up being a hangout for retired/nearly retired professionals during happy hour and townie millennials during night shift (This demographic is rapidly aging out of the bar scene to an extent that the bar faces an existential crisis because Gen Z doesn't really drink that much.)

The odds are long, and worsened by the fact that bars are A. sausagefests and B. often skew old in their clientele. The drinks are cheaper at the place I worked at, $10-$12 cocktails, yes, but we also sell $2 PBR pints as long as the distributor doesn't screw up and run out of them, $4 domestics (including Miller Lite and Yuengling pint cans, Budweiser stuff comes in 12oz bottles), and $8 shifties (any domestic plus any well shot; my usual is a Budweiser with a shot of Jameson). You justify the cost because you like drinking and talking, and while getting laid probably isn't in the cards a good conversation probably is. As the millennials age out even the "interesting conversation" part is starting to become questionable.

In my experience young (and especially young and attractive) women rarely come to the bar alone, usually with a friend/spouse or in a group of friends who are having their own conversation and don't want an outsider butting in. There aren't dramatic rejections; you just pick up on the fact that you're not part of the group and that their conversation, game, or whatever was for them, not for you. The rare young woman who does show up alone (usually in-between relationships) will be subject to insane amounts of competition for attention from every single guy aged 21-80. The older guys have the money to buy her drinks and are sexually non-threatening, and thus will win most of her attention.

Very early millennial to Gen X and older women (and men) tend to be way less introverted and more willing to talk. It's hard to pry younger people away from their phones.

Agrees with all of this as a felllow alcoholic barfly. Its getting to the point where i basically assume that any young attractive woman is going to have a shitty personality and be hopelessly addicted to her phone

In my experience young (and especially young and attractive) women rarely come to the bar alone, usually with a friend/spouse or in a group of friends who are having their own conversation and don't want an outsider butting in.

This has been my primary observation. Any woman who is out is always accompanied. Sometimes its by a less attractive friend who can police the men, other times its a gang of girlies who are just out to get some instagrammable moments.

Last night there was a squad of stereotypical 'bros' (zoomer edition) sitting at a table near us. And one (1) lone woman who I assume was one of the GFs.

There was a squadron of girlies wearing matching outfits that were all attractive but very inward facing, and you could read the signs of 'self policing' where none of them were 'allowed' to go talk to a guy even if they had the inkling.

And the one thing you NEVER see is a lone woman, at least not one who stays still for very long.

As a male, you begin to realize is that for the amount of money you'd spend on a night out swinging futilely for a date, you could subscribe to a handful of girls' onlyfans accounts and be GUARANTEED a positive interaction, you'll get to see boobs and cooch if you want, and she'll at least pretend to find you attractive.

The older guys have the money to buy her drinks and are sexually non-threatening, and thus will win most of her attention.

I could do a whole screed on older (and I'm starting to count myself in that number) guys who can just burn wealth and leverage their experience to monopolize a woman's attention, even if he doesn't really want to take her home. The boomers who were raised on "keep women happy and safe" will sometime lavish their oodles of money on women just because she's there.

Which makes the young upstart, with his entry level job and studio apartment (if he's lucky) seem like a loser by default.

And Mr. Boomer will probably blame the guy for lacking confidence or failing to close the deal without noticing how his own presence has changed the very nature of the game.

Sometimes its by a less attractive friend who can police the men

This is your opportunity right there. Since 90% of guys will hit on the more attractive woman, the less attractive one is used to used to her getting all the attention and ends up playing sheriff out of resentment, if nothing else. If you hit on the less attractive one, she feels validated, and the more attractive one is both relieved that she's not the one getting hit on and feels good for her lovelorn friend finally getting some action. And if you start talking to a group of girls, always be prepared to hit on the least attractive one in the group. If this girl is a real dog, then don't necessarily throw in the towel, but have realistic expectations.

Used to be you could bring a reliable wingman for that purpose.

I recently started to explore speed dating events. For those unfamiliar, the way they work is they arrange a number of pairs, and you go through a few ~10 minute conversations (strictly timed) over the next 1-2 hours. You get to mark down your like/dislike per person, sometimes with specific intentions (friends/romantic/hookup) depending on the event, and matches get each other's contact info.

The pros are that the conversations are opt out rather than opt in, and they're one-on-one by design, so the part about the woman's attention is solved. Since she paid her entry fee as well as you did, she's probably not the kind of person to stare into her phone for the entire duration of the time slot, either.

On the other hand, it's still up to you to leave an impression over 10 (usually less) minutes enough for her to reply, even if you end up matching. The women there are also probably not the same as those who go to bars, but that might be a pro for you rather than a con depending on who you're looking for.

Overall, I'd say it beats a dating app in terms of getting guaranteed talking/flirting practice for the same price of a few drinks you'd spend at a bar.

I did go to a speed dating event last year.

Bit of a dud.

Some of the women flaked, so they delayed the start time to call in some pinch hitters.

Even after that the ratio came out to (as I recall) 8 women to 11 men.

3 of the women were single mothers.

Although I can say that the locale was a good spot, I actually liked it enough that I invited a girl I met through the apps out to that spot later on. Date was also a dud, the apps suck.

I appreciate that speed dating events are 'trying' to create a space where it is appropriate to interact with ladies with very open intent, but I still lament the dearth of 'organic' meeting opportunities that are available.

I second this. As long as you have done enough self development on your attractiveness and ability to hold a conversation, speed dating is great. Time wasters are weeded out because its a paid event. The girls are (almost) guaranteed to be single (some organisers give free tickets to their taken contacts to even out the gender ratio).

The time/cost investment stacks up very well compared to the apps. You don't need to spend an hour broken up over a week convincing an app match that you're safe/not boring enough to meet for a coffee.

Worth a try if you're looking for something serious.

I suppose "viable" is subjective, but I'd say it's quite relatively inefficient. Hence why it's been years since I've stopped regularly going out to do nightlife approaches.

One night stands with a ballpark "looks match" (much less looks match+) are rare, even if you're an attractive guy who knows what you're doing.

Suppose we set aside the consideration of buying chicks drinks. You're still sacrificing time, money, and energy to go out to a bar/lounge/club to court-jester and monkey-dance for girls and their friends. And even if you obtain a number after said court-jestering/monkey-dancing, there is no guarantee she'll reply to your text afterward, much less a guarantee she'll agree to and show-up to a date.

Buying chicks and (much less) their friends drinks only makes the deal worse. Pray they do not alter the deal further. It's a form of merriment for girls to see how much time, money, energy, they can squeeze out of guys. "Oh teehee thanks for the drink, but my friends look like they need one too..."

Nowadays, the attractive girls you'll meet in nightlife venues (or anywhere, even on the street, grocery stores, malls, etc.) are also thotting around on online dating sites and Instagram. Might as well just save your time, money, energy sending messages instead of lumbering around a nightlife venue. Especially if your online presence can better leverage female mate-choice copying.

Thats been my assumption, any girl out doing nightlife stuff has a guaranteed 12+ guys in her phone via dating apps and thus maximum optionality.

If you are male model quality or can flash ridiculous levels of wealth you have an in.

Otherwise, you exist in her life only for the exact amount of time her attention is on you.

You can extend that time a few minutes by buying a drink or whatever, but I suspect there's no magic set of words you can utter in that time that will change anything about her opinion of you she formed in the first 10 seconds.

And of course buying drinks CAN signal you're a mark which the more predatory types of women would simply milk as long as possible.

I am amazed how we've seemingly let the behavior or the "bottom" 20% of social actors poison every single interaction the rest of us have.

any girl out doing nightlife stuff has a guaranteed 12+ guys in her phone via dating apps and thus maximum optionality.

Probably but you have to consider the following:

  • Half of the guys she matches with won't ever message her
  • Half of those who do will open with something like "You have a really nice face but it would look much better smashed up against mine".
  • Half of the ones who don't are incapable of texting anything other than "Hey" or "How's your weekend going?"
  • Half of the ones who are capable of texting aren't capable of maintaining a conversation in real life
  • Half of the ones who actually can maintain a conversation can only do so for about an hour before changing the subject to all the nasty things they want to do to them
  • The remaining 1% or so of men, knowing they're in rarefied air, think they're God's gift to women and act like it.

At least this is the impression that I get based on conversations with attractive women I know who have tried it. And that doesn't even include guys who will text for weeks without asking the girl out. So if you meet someone in a bar you can at least speed run to the final step without being burdened by the inherent douchiness that affects guys who are too successful on dating apps.

I often have small thoughts I'd like to use as discussion prompts on the Motte, but that aren't explicit questions (for the SSQS thread like this one here) or really suitable for top-level culture war posts. Could I attempt to open something like a "Small observation Saturday" thread, or is that just directionless low-effort posting unsuitable for the Motte?

If they're light and fun, that's what Fridays are for.

If they're personal, they probably fit into the Wellness Wednesday thread broadly construed.

If they're neither fun nor personal, then such a thread would probably devolve into low-effort driveby rageposting of "thing I saw on the internet pissed me off" and "fuck my stupid outgroup" level stuff that would rapidly enshittify the forum.

Can we try some out right here?

I read my aunt's old poetry album from the 60s. Rural Germany, mind you. The poetry was entirely of the wisdom kind; dozens of people all writing down exhortations along the lines of

  • Be pious and pray fervently.
  • You live for others, not for yourself.
  • Work hard to give God something to work with on your behalf.
  • When life sucks, suck it up.
  • Be glad at all times, even when life is hard.
  • Remember the people around you, and the good times you shared.
  • Honor your parents, they won't be around forever.
  • Speak softly or don't speak at all.
  • Do somethign with your life that you are good at.

It struck me as very different from what one would hear as poetic advice nowadays. Not exactly surprising insights, I suppose.

Work hard to give God something to work with on your behalf.

Oh I like this one.

One of them, which most closely fit this pattern, used the imagery of cutting beams and hewing rocks so that God may build a house for you.

Yes, that's good too. Thanks.

Not long ago, I was struck for similar reasons when reading a Joyce Kilmer poem: To a Young Poet Who Killed Himself. I can’t imagine coming across anything similar from a modern-day poet.

Plus, Kilmer is most famous for his poem on trees (beloved by hippies everywhere), so I tend to think of him as a soft-hearted liberal. In reality, he was a devout Catholic, and he shared his church’s—and his society’s—negative views on suicide.

I would expect the modern-day equivalent to have more pop-psych, like "What doesn't kill you still gives you PTSD". Or maybe eco-friendly, like "Take nothing but pictures, leave nothing but footprints".

See, that's defeatism, not advice. I'm not sure there is a modern-day equivalent, maybe Jordan Peterson?

If there's a discussion prompt, there must be a question in there, right? Seems like a good fit for SSQS to me.

Not really. Perhaps I misdescribed it. It's just small things I come across that are interesting to me and might be interesting to some mottizens. It's an offer of vaguely cruious information; not a prompt.

Any recommendations on a decent cheap laptop for writing on the go? I just need battery life, word processing software, and passable keyboard ergonomics. Drop survivability and lightness are secondary concerns. I'm thinking something like a Chromebook, but something about the name just puts me off.

The cheapest Macbook Air on Costco (where I got my last one) is still $650. While the OS leaves something to be desired at times, the actual physical laptop itself is far superior in construction quality to everything I looked at five years ago. To get a similar quality aluminum case and solidity of function on a windows laptop would have cost me twice as much at the time.

Given that an even-decent quality Chromebook will run you in $400 range, you are better off splurging to get a nicer item, given how many hours you'll spend using it.

At least, that was my reasoning when I bought mine.

Macbooks excel in construction quality, battery life, and especially battery-life for high performance tasks, though that last isn't very important for word processing. I don't like the OSX UI, but that's not very important for word processing either. The only thing I'd caution is that something about my Macbook keyboard just doesn't "feel right" to me; I can't touch type quite as fast and I make more errors. I'm not sure if this is something real about the tactile feedback, or if I'd just get used to it if I used my laptop more frequently and other keyboards less frequently.

For me, the construction quality is the most important quality, which is why I chose a macbook four years ago.

I know a lot of people who got pretty good deals on used laptops on Craigslist and Facebook Marketplace, usually windows. You'll need a bit of pc knowhow as these are almost never wiped by the previous owners and are sometimes even PW locked and the person selling it to you can't even get it open. Most of these can be wiped and restored with little issue. Repair places sometimes have abandoned ones too, and they'll definitely wipe them first. I've seen a lot of 3-4 year old windows laptops that are more than adequate for running MS Office software for @$200.

What's your budget?

If battery life is a top priority, you're probably going to want something based on an M-series chip (Mac) or Snapdragon (Windows). The Snapdragon devices are still pretty new. Microsoft has them in a version of the Surface Book: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/d/surface-laptop-for-business-copilot-pc/8tkcbz02bdvk

I'd try getting a used MacBook Air and doing a battery replacement. They tend to be really good at build quality and battery life.

Is turning a few screws and running Linux (or pirated Win 10 LTS/cracked Win 11) an option? I'd personally get an old Thinkpad X270.

Small, compact, robust, really good keyboard, long battery life. All around high quality, those were $2000+ when they were new (and they are below $200 now).

It's also the first model that has USB-C charging, and the last model to still have upgradable RAM (so I'd max that out). And I'd probably put in a new SSD, new battery (if the previous owner used it much). Maybe get a SIM for it, so you don't have to tether if you want internet on the go.

But honestly, you probably don't even need to open it up if you mostly do Word. Most corporate leasing models (and many used X270s will be from that category) never ran on their batteries, and text processing doesn't need 32GB memory and a fast SSD.

I got tired of accidentally destroying my laptops and got a renewed Dell Latitude 5414. It's been working pretty well so far.

Alternatively, you may want to buy a used Alphasmart Neo for distraction-free writing.

Chromebooks are terrible and overpriced for what you get. They aren't meant for software but for cloud computing, so if you want to do something basic like chew a picture in .tiff format you have to upload it to the cloud. Forget about running Word, it's Google docs or something similar. The better spec'd ones are the same price as a cheap laptop with less functionality. Your best bet is to go to a computer store and find something you like that fits your budget. Just don't get the cheapest one because they're tech from five years ago that probably won't last another five. I have a Lenovo IdeaPad that I bought for 700 bucks on a Costco deal during the pandemic and it's still going strong (I wouldn't even think about upgrading at this point) but you probably don't have to go that high end. If you can afford it, it's worth getting something nicer that you don't have to worry about. I can't comment on keyboards because I'm a desktop guy and hate typing on any laptop for anything more involved than entering search terms into a browser.

What is the most enjoyable conspiracy / new age belief to hold? I don’t mean convincing or beneficial, but just pure fun. Like, if beliefs were games or desserts, which belief would you buy to enjoy for an overindulgent weekend?

(Inspired by the weird egyptian pyramid theory going around online)

I like the one where the Space Force are actually a secret cadre of Trump ultra-loyalists who's primary mission is to help carry out the big Day or Reckoning against the Bad People. This is actually a very specific and narrow version of the larger “any day now Hilary et al will be executed at gitmo” complex of conspiracy theories ala Real Raw News (https://realrawnews.com/) but hyper fixated on the Space Force being secret Trump commandos. Its died down a bit since Trump won; many of its principle concerns involved the Space Force finding proof that the 2020 election was stolen, and that somehow this proof was located on one of more satellites and that Space Force loyalists had secretly physically accessed these satellites in orbit and were about to blow the whole thing open, any day now.

There is also a predictable amount of overlap between the Space Force people and the UFO scene, which has itself been very active/excited for the last 8 years or so for a number of reasons.

edit - I also enjoy the "Everyone Famous is Actually Trans" one too mentioned down thread. There don't appear to be all that many people directly involved in this one, but they are very prolific and focused on it, and produce a lot of very entertaining infographics and other "evidence" that's easy to share and repost on twitter and social media, making it look bigger than it is.

Transvestigation or transpiracy is enjoyable because it's wildly out there while being basically harmless. The claim is that many celebrities are secretly transgender.

A prominent example is Candance Owen's 8 part video series arguing that Bridgette Macron, the french first lady, was born a man. It's amusing but desperately in need of a shorter summary.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=FDOnxpViQxY&list=PLPW2eH9z9CUvJ0Iiv9AQqq2RVAWFFfNZR&index=8

The Electric Universe is fun because it starts with plausible sounding arguments about space not being electrically neutral and then builds so much stuff out of that it starts sounding like 40k lore.

https://www.thunderbolts.info/wp/2015/02/18/discourses-on-an-alien-sky-series-2/

Phantom Time is pretty nifty. AKA "a few hundred years in the middle-ages, including Charlemagne, never existed". You could probably mess with people at dinner parties with it.

Angel Numbers. Essentially a superstitious belief that the appearance of certain numbers provides meaning.

We're surrounded by numbers, from car mileage to receipts to credit cards. My wife and I have long had a joking superstition that single-digit order numbers on Wawa receipts are important and mean something will happen (for those of you less fortunate, Wawa order numbers go from 000-999, and Wawas are open 24-7 so they reset at random). She did get her first real job the same day we got the 001 receipt for the first time.

Looking for random patterns is fun.

Like 4Chan dubs? Nice.

My gf and I are fans of 11:11 meaning yay look at that it’s a happy time

She believes it I guess

It’s really just fun and cute

I'm a big fan of 12:34pm. Less so of 12:34am, but that's because nothing good happens after midnight.

There’s one theory that I think is ridiculous but fun called Tartaria, where people claim that the buildings from the 1892 World’s Fair in Chicago were actually from a super advanced ancient civilization in the Americas

Do not cite the deep magic to me, witch — I was there when it was written.

Something about Flat Earth makes me smile.

I love the flat earth, too, but, alas, the earth can't be both flat and hollow at the same time.

Sigh...! Who lives inside the hollow earth?

Ultima Thuleans, of course. The breakaway Nazi UFOs come from there, too.

The only thing about Hollow Earth that makes me pause is the seismic shadow zone see observed at certain angles. Almost as if it's hollow! There was also a video somewhere of a spinning blob of water in zero g, with bubbles of gas trapped inside. It formed a hollow in the center. I couldn't find that in my cursory search.

My most treasured Earth is not Earth as we know it theory is that the moon is a plasma phenomenon, and that our known world is a crater.

Unfortunately, smarter and more diligent men than me have done much more work than I ever will, and the common explanation is as correct as we know how to make it. Boring and sad, I know.

Disappointing. But one can dream.

I asked Claude.

Earth's Delicious Hollow Center

If Earth were hollow and we could fill it with something delicious for sustenance, I'd suggest:

Nutrient-rich bone broth. It would:

Provide complete proteins, minerals, and collagen

Be liquid at Earth's internal temperatures

Remain stable for long periods

Be accessible through "wells" that could tap into the broth reservoir

Supply both hydration and nutrition

Do you find that the rhyming in a poem makes the meaning of the idea more clear or less clear? To me, any rhyming seems to interfere with my immediate ability to grasp the meaning, so it’s worse at conveying meaning that non-rhyming poetry or prose.

Poems must rhyme. The purpose of poetry is the structure. I'll mention my two favorite poems by Robert Frost. The first, Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening, is famous enough that I won't post it here, but the AABA BBCB CCDC DDDD rhyme scheme leads you from one stanza to the next, and nicely concludes the poem.

The other is simply masterful. It's a poem for children.

For Allan,
Who wanted to see how I wrote a poem:

Among these mountains, do you know,
I have a farm, and on it grow
A thousand lovely Christmas trees.
I'd like to send you one of these,
But it's against the laws.
A man may give a little boy
A book, a useful knife, a toy,
Or even a rhyme like this by me
(I wrote it just like this, you see)
But nobody may give a tree,
Excepting Santa Claus.

This is a well crafted poem. I adore how such a simple poem is constructed. It sings, and I love it.

Rhymes make words into music, and turn prose into poetry. The best poems have both rhymes and meter, such that the syllables (and emphasis, and structure) make the beat and the rhymes (and alliteration, and assonance, and consonance) make melody and harmony.

It is beautiful adornment of language.

For me it certainly depends on the rhyming. Most supposed "non-rhyming" poetry does have internal rhyme and slant rhyme.

One of my favorites from a few decades ago, note the rhyme, which is very easy to just miss:

The Beautiful Changes

One wading a Fall meadow finds on all sides
The Queen Anne’s Lace lying like lilies On water; it glides

So from the walker, it turns

Dry grass to a lake, as the slightest shade of you
Valleys my mind in fabulous blue Lucernes.

The beautiful changes as a forest is changed
By a chameleon’s tuning his skin to it;
As a mantis, arranged

On a green leaf, grows

Into it, makes the leaf leafier, and proves
Any greenness is deeper than anyone knows.

Your hands hold roses always in a way that says
They are not only yours; the beautiful changes
In such kind ways,
Wishing ever to sunder

Things and things’ selves for a second finding, to lose
For a moment all that it touches back to wonder.

--Richard Wilbur

Wilbur was poet laureate in 1987, and deservedly so. Many of them have boggled the mind, but Wilbur was solid. I saw him read once, back in the early 90's. I did not drink white wine but I did get drunk at the reception.

Anyway compare the rhyme there to a poem like this:

Phenomenal Woman

Pretty women wonder where my secret lies.

I'm not cute or built to suit a fashion model's size

But when I start to tell them,

They think I'm telling lies. I say,

It's in the reach of my arms

The span of my hips,

The stride of my step,

The curl of my lips.

I'm a woman

Phenomenally.

Phenomenal woman,

That's me.

I walk into a room

Just as cool as you please,

And to a man,

The fellows stand or

Fall down on their knees.

Then they swarm around me,

A hive of honey bees.

I say,

It's the fire in my eyes,

And the flash of my teeth,

The swing in my waist,

And the joy in my feet.

I'm a woman

Phenomenally.

Phenomenal woman,

That's me.

Men themselves have wondered

What they see in me.

They try so much

But they can't touch

My inner mystery.

When I try to show them

They say they still can't see.

I say,

It's in the arch of my back,

The sun of my smile,

The ride of my breasts,

The grace of my style.

I'm a woman

Phenomenally.

Phenomenal woman,

That's me.

Now you understand

Just why my head's not bowed.

I don't shout or jump about

Or have to talk real loud.

When you see me passing

It ought to make you proud.

I say,

It's in the click of my heels,

The bend of my hair,

the palm of my hand,

The need of my care,

'Cause I'm a woman

Phenomenally.

Phenomenal woman,

That's me.

--Maya Angelou

Angelou was never poet laureate, though she did PL things, like read at inaugurations. I thought her poetry was undergrad level tripe, though her book I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings is, from what I remember of it, very good. MY point is Angelou's rhyme here is clunky and obvious, and even in its clunky and obviousness, it is simplistic and dull. It makes me feel stupider by reading it. It's like a pop song on the page.

Ever since I saw how Japanese songs are written, I have kind of thought that rhyming is a bit of a stupid thing to require for every English song. When I say that, I'm usually thinking of Yorushika songs, though there's a lot out there that I think is very pretty, speaks to life's fundamental tribulations, and is artfully put together. Do you have any opinions on English poetry/songs versus Japanese poetry/songs?

Of course, I doubt removing the rhyming requirement would improve the content of American pop songs at all.

In the first song there in your link, there is a lot of end rhyme, though in Japanese end rhyme of that sort is less the word and more the word ending, e.g. だ and さ. True, it's slant rhyme (there is no intentional insulting pun there goddamit) but it is rhyme.

I don't read Japanese poetry in Japanese, and J pop songs now are mostly background noise to whatever dance routine there may be. Unless one listens to indie or alternative, which I will if exposed to it but don't seek out. I don't even hate American pop songs as a whole, but at some point in the early oughts I started hating both rap and hip hop, though until then I had mixtapes of both (actual cassettes). Something happened somewhere in there with those genres, or maybe I just got old.

Generally my tastes run eclectic in music and my Spotify playlists are all over the shop. On this train ride at the moment I am listening to ambient. for no reason except Tuesday.

I'm sure there are differences in Japanese and English rhyming, but I don't know what they are. Even Japanese literature I tend to read in English. Yukio Mishima is not difficult to read in translation but apparently very hard to read in Japanese. Murakami is easy in both. Literary translation is an interesting field, and I wonder how well LLMs do it. Or people, for that matter. As an aside, I only realized a few years ago that Yoda, in Japanese translation, has no distinctive way of speaking. That's a small point and not literary, and now I'm way off topic.

As an aside, I only realized a few years ago that Yoda, in Japanese translation, has no distinctive way of speaking.

Mind blown.

It's like a pop song on the page.

Worse, it's like bad rap music. The old hiphop head inside me went "whack" several times while reading, even before I knew what point you wanted to make.

Read a modern translation of the Iliad done by a woman with a classics PhD that contains an extensive introduction describe the tedious research that was done to ensure that the meaning is true to the original Greek, taking historical context into account to ensure as little misinterpretation as possible from the average reader. Then read Alexander Pope's rhyming translation, that's probably more Pope than Homer. The modern translation is more accurate, but the Pope is more fun.

Rhyming (or other forms of meter like alliterative verse) has obvious benefits for memory, so in the sense that it sticks in my mind more quickly that kind of language is going to be more useful for getting across an idea in a sticky way.

I think we're going to get into a discussion here over what constitutes grasping or conveying meaning.

Consider the Clarihew

George the Third Ought never to have occurred. One can only wonder At so grotesque a blunder.

Would the sentence

George III was a pretty bad king.

get across the same meaning more quickly?

Probably yes, in the sense that you'll get what is being said in less time and can move on. But more people will remember the Clarihew, a week or two from now there's a good chance that a good percentage of them will be able to repeat it back to you even if they only read it once. I myself looked that poem up just now, after reading a reference to it in a children's book (I want to say one of the Indian in the Cupboard series) twenty-five years ago. So in that sense the couplet "George the Third, Ought never to have occurred" gets the reader to grasp the meaning and retain it much more quickly than the same message in prose. People will hear George III mentioned, connect it to "ought never to have occurred," and recall that he was a bad king. It would take reading much more prose to get a similar average retention rate.

This has long been the purpose of poetic meter, from marketing jingles to heuristics to nursery rhymes to epic poems.

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