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netstack

The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

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joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

				

User ID: 647

netstack

The horse embodies the wings a person feels inside.

10 followers   follows 3 users   joined 2022 September 05 17:27:40 UTC

					

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User ID: 647

Man, you really ought to know better. I suppose you haven’t accrued a warning in a while, so we’ll back off to a three-day ban this time.

Be polite.

More or less.

It’s easy to find examples of officials doing the responsible thing.

It’s also easy to find people who danced around the violence while endorsing the sentiment. Notice how those take @FtttG’s suggested response: “we pledge to do all we can to fix the problem.”

The incentives are to call for reform, insist that you’re working to solve the problem, and downplay any violence. Only the most radical politicians flirted with endorsing the riots.

Really? I kind of liked the cringe relationship drama. Er, that might be a little strong. I appreciated having it around. It avoids certain failure modes of self-published fantasy by flying really, really close to them.

I feel like the story would be weaker if it didn’t have Joon’s confused psychosexual problems. But then, I rather liked Evangelion.

I wouldn’t call it manufactured, per se. But yes, of course it applies.

Not that I disagree with your premise, exactly...but I can think of several reasons we might have started bombing. Most of them involve underestimating the resilience of Iran's government. Regime change would make destroying the facilities a moot point.

"We only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down."

Too obnoxious by half.

You were warned last month for frothing at the mouth instead of, you know, politely discussing whatever it was that pissed you off. One day ban this time.

The defensible form of this argument is that they’re doing whatever they normally would, only much more efficient, because they have access to a pseudo-intern who doesn’t need to eat, sleep, or get briefed to their project.

The spicy form is that whatever frontier model has made it to the government is totally 100x smarter, guys, and can generate Bay of Pigs plans that actually work.

  • Everything about the Napoleonic Wars and the eventual formation of Germany.
  • If you count trouncing which didn’t manage to end the war, conflicts like the American Civil War or the Nazi invasion of Russia.
  • Actually, do Stalin’s purges count as trouncing his own military?
  • Communist China.

I wouldn’t actually count the Wehrmacht as a short-term response. 15 years to get into power, 5 more to rearm before really throwing their weight around. That’s enough for significant leadership turnover plus several revolutions in military affairs.

The latter is the real load-bearing part. A solid defeat leads to effective revenge if and only if the underlying fundamentals change. You’ve got to adopt a new technology or find a new point of leverage.

In the case of Iran, which was already a more or less modern military, what’s the pivot? Drone integration? Not enough to overcome the USN. Control of the strait? Not exactly a new idea. I guess they have expanded the space of strait diplomacy to include some more favorable options. I don’t know if that meaningfully makes them stronger.

Sorry, Anthropic was kicked off the contract for being a foreign puppet. What’s Sam Altman’s record on pop-culture references?

FWIW, my dad was talking about that just the other day. He’d been watching an interview with Fetterman where the guy was like “hey, I was actually at that dinner, and it’s kind of messed up that the guy got in. Maybe the Trump ballroom is a good idea?”

There’s probably a lot to unpack about Fetterman and how he fits into the two-party system, but my takeaway was that the attempt isn’t forgotten just yet. If nothing else, Congress takes personal threats very seriously.

It may be too hot a take for this board, but I would say it means women aren’t actually foreign agitators with incomprehensible experiences.

There are, of course, other possibilities.

Do you have a natural child we haven’t heard about? Because that veers awfully close to Boomer dad joke territory.

Finished Ghost Story, the N-th Dresden Files book. I thought it was pretty fun. Harry fights monsters, solves crimes, does his usual stubborn white-knight shtick, all in a good way.

I read the first half of the series as a teenager, then the next few as used books, and got this from the library. It feels like the appropriate way to go for the rest; while I have little desire to own them, I can't say I'm not a little invested. From the outside, it's easier to grumble about the author's quirks, but while you're immersed, the predominant theme is "hell yeah, of course magic should work like that." Like, you want to be part of this setting, even though it objectively sucks. Fantasy in the pure sense.

Next up I guess I'm reading Ancillary Mercy by Ann Leckie. I've written about why the first book in that series was so good. Then I enjoyed the second without finding it particularly special. I'm hoping for a return to form.

Oh, and I guess I've got Battle Cry of Freedom too. It's getting into the early stages of the war now. Still horrifying/incredible. Still increasing my respect for Abe Lincoln.

Did you read his Licanius series, and if so, what did you think? I bought the first one on a whim but haven't read it yet.

I heard this song, tried to share it with somebody, and couldn’t find it again. Somehow. Thanks!

I’ve been feeling an oncoming crash for years, and it hasn’t paid off yet. From my COMPLETELY UNSCIENTIFIC, VIBES-ONLY perspective, the market has absorbed all sorts of rate changes and price spikes and geopolitical boondoggles which might have reasonably been expected to presage a crash. But then, if it was obvious, it would be priced in, right?

Speaking of which. The big AI companies are absurdly valued, which is not the same as being incorrectly valued. Pricing the possibility of a market-shattering payoff has historically caused markets to diverge from normal human expectations. This isn’t great, but it’s not inherently disastrous in the same way as, say, the subprime mortgage situation.

It only ends up a bubble if AI plateaus, stops picking up new niches, before debt outpaces investment. This is entirely possible and I don’t know what the leading indicators would be.

If AI expands into any other sector of the economy, it pays off. I suspect this would require a major change in robotics (to cover skilled trades, etc.) or ethics (to allow violence). Some of these routes are extremely goddamn dystopian, but at least they aren’t bubbles, right?

That said, AI isn’t the only source of optimistic IPOs. There is a lot of interest in manufacturing and defense investment. Onshoring stuff which might become contentious. I could believe that this is its own bubble; people want to believe that manufacturing will spring up. If they are underestimating the cost of local improvements, or overestimating the reliability of the current administration, there’s potential for some serious disappointment.

Add this to the list of things I hope I'm wrong about, because if we get a proper crash, the political fallout is going to be massive.

Ha. Norm MacDonald continues to be relevant.

Besides, if the techbros are revealed as delusional, if all the slush funds and gold plating in the country can’t stave off a crash…what are we supposed to think? Sorry, Trump was just holding the hot potato, blame the wreckers?

I’m saying that if the LA riots didn’t represent a breaking point, the Belfast riots won’t, either. There’s not gonna be a kulak-approved Helter Skelter.

I responded to FtttG here before realizing why there was so little action in that thread.

Tl;dr

  1. Fuck this guy. I hope he gets whatever punishment the law deems fit for a violent psychopath.
  2. It’s good that public figures are calling for calm. That is the most important part of their jobs.
  3. I realize that saying 2. automatically places me in the Leftist Shill category, and I don’t like that the discourse is so poisoned.
  4. Twitter delenda est.

Seriously, social media is probably the worst way to learn about public opinion. Unfortunately, most of the public which is opining probably got the idea through social media.

across twitter I see various historically-enemy paramilitary sympathizers calling to set aside their differences and unite against the common enemy

This is still pretty silly. If the IRA is plotting a cooperative pogrom, they’re not doing it on Twitter.

Is it just me or have the straws been landing more heavily, lately…

Just you. Belfast has a smaller total population than LA’s black population. In the 90s. I’m not expecting to see anything remotely on the scale of the ‘92 riots.

Kulak once predicted that the flashpoint for organized European resistance

Kulak predicts a lot of things. I don’t know that he’s been right yet. I’d take the other side of this bet.

Damn. That’s horrific.

I’m going to, at risk of looking like said diligent but futile apologists, suggest taking the response a bit less seriously.

Think about the incentives of social media. Ingroup is allowed to do no wrong. Outgroup is not allowed to score points. Also, it’s free to say whatever shit you want, and if you get controversial-yet-brave enough, the algorithm might even reward you. Hence the Reddit hivemind.

Compare lobbying and special interest groups, which are specifically designed to spin anything and everything to their specific issue. I think it’s distasteful and against common decency, but also not particularly unique. Call it the price of free speech.

Then you’ve got the actual politicians, who in theory have skin in the game. Elected officials are incentivized to call for calm, procedural responses no matter what. The killer is in custody, the facts are out there, but Belfast still has some unburned trash cans and they’d like to keep it that way. It is rational to make milquetoast calls for public order. It is their job.

The same goes for mainstream outlets. I’m seeing articles like this which remind people, hey, burning cars is still illegal. Forming mobs is still going to get you in trouble. I think this is what I’d want from a major outlet. I would be a lot more worried if they were calling for volunteers.

I waffled on writing this because I think the crime was awful and I didn’t want to look like an apologist. Think about that dynamic. I’d like to be able to say “don’t burn buses” without also saying “this guy did nothing wrong.” I’d like to say “fuck this guy” without also saying “deport all the foreigners.” It’s hard to make that clear when the very act of calling for restraint is treated as a naked emotional appeal, a criticism of the reasonable people, an attack in the wider culture war.

I feel like I’m having a stroke just reading this. Can’t imagine what it sounds like aloud.

The big problem that the West has is that their elite has been focussed on how to get rich in the global economy.

That’s been true since Columbus; clearly it can coexist with a desire for local improvements. Conversely, local industry does not automatically trickle down to local quality of life. For every urban core there were a dozen company-operated mill and mining towns operating on the margin.

On the other end, if you look at the top American companies or billionaires, they all sell stuff to Westerners. After all, we have the most money. If those purchases mean anything at all, we’ve been getting something out of this massive, interconnected mess. Clothing, food, electronics—none of those markets look the same under an autarkic model. The real benefits came from extending specialization of labor.

How so?

Like, I completely understand finding it unappealing, even immoral. I don’t think that makes it defection. What’s the common good which is getting captured in this case?

Alright. I’m interpreting your question as something like:

“If the West likes giving things to low-IQ populations, why is it so against giving things to Russia?

This, uh, may be beyond my powers; I’ll give it a try.

  1. Not all gifts are equivalent. Offering housing and social services is much easier than offering an entire country.
  2. Not all recipients are equally deserving. Offering support to poor individuals is much much easier than offering it to an entire country.
  3. Routines matter. There is an established procedure for refugees and such to enter Western countries. Following it led to the current situation. There are also established procedures for one country to get things from another. Russia not following such procedures led to the current situation.

It makes sense to treat these two situations differently, because basically nothing about them is the same.

So there are a couple main groups of post.

  1. Regulars who want to do something different. This is welcome, even encouraged, subject to the “CW in the CW thread” rule.
  2. Rat-adjacent posters who want to repost their own substack, or occasionally a related essay series. Less encouraged, since there’s a real risk of engagement bait and general unsavory tactics. It’s much harder to enforce the CW and politeness rules in a one-off interaction. Still, we approve a decent number of these, especially from users with any sort of presence in the SSC community. KulakRevolt or felipec would be examples.
  3. Complete randos who want to post their (usually AI-heavy) manifesto. We have flirted with these before, since posters tend to appeal to the spirit of free debate. This has rarely panned out. The current policy is not to approve.

The catch is that there are an order of magnitude more #3 posters. Excluding outright commercial spam, 90+% of what we get for top-levels are people asking to debate their earth-shattering new theory of everything. When we see someone known and respected like @FtttG in the queue, we’re a bit surprised. “Wait, people actually use this thing?” Then we check for CW, etc., and most likely approve.

How do you feel about professional wrestling?

I don’t have stats on the OF talent base, other than knowing it has pretty extreme earnings disparities. It is possible that the bulk of content is small-scale amateur film by couples even while the bulk of the cash goes to a smaller pool of celebrities. Can’t say I find it likely compared to the alternative where almost everyone is shooting solo videos.