faceh
2hr ago
I'm not so certain that's true.
At least in a couple cases it would also be irresponsible for them to break up their extant lives in the U.S. to go over and maybe die for a regime change.
In one case, though, the guy is single and otherwise not attached to much and owns a decent number of guns.
faceh
3hr ago
Definitely a worrisome failure mode there.
I just like the idea of demonstrating the impotence of an authoritarian in such an embarrassing manner.
What I also find amusing is that if you yoink the current leader without killing him, suddenly their 'replacement' has a dilemma. They can either try to seize power for themselves and supplant their predecessor... at which point the U.S. can force a legitimacy crisis by returning the previous one, or the new leader can insist he's just a placeholder until the return of the captive leader... while admitting his own inability to effect that return.
I feel like this sort of thing happened semi-commonly in Medieval Europe when King got captured and held for ransom.
Seems completely unprecedented in the modern era though.
faceh
3hr ago
Incidentally that would be why I DON'T expect Trump to pull something audacious and highly risky, since he's presumably sensitive to how a failure would crack his popularity and image. He has been VERY blessed in the success of his deployment of U.S. forces into dangerous situations. Hasn't had to reckon with a version of the Benghazi or Black Hawk Down situations, let alone the Iran Hostage Crisis. Biden even did him the favor of a hasty Afghanistan withdrawal in the interim.
I'm still in awe of the Venezuela gambit, he must have been assured there was such a disparity in capability (or they had SO MANY insiders to help out) that it would be virtually impossible to truly fail.
I'm not exactly sure what sort of material support for the protestors is most likely to help them succeed, but I do like that this tangibly reduces the likelihood of a real boots-on-ground invasion, from my perspective.
faceh
4hr ago
If Trump sends in Delta force and they manage to successfully yoink the Ayatollah with minimal casualties, I will buy $15,000 worth of Raytheon and Northrop Grumman stock.
Toppling the regime may or may not play out in the U.S.'s favor, but supporting the protestors in some material way also seems like an obvious win. I'm not sure what other leverage Trump can gain over Iran that doesn't involve another 'kinetic' action.
And I'm also unsure what 'Carrot' can be offered to the current regime to somehow play nice after like 50 years of entrenching as America's biggest hater.
I do know that of the few friends I have who feel strongly about the situation (because they or their family is from Iran/Persia) they are pretty vehement that it'd be worth significant amounts of death to remove the existing regime.
faceh
4hr ago
Work to build trust in the community and communicate with residents like other police forces do.
-Work in collaboration with local law enforcement and if they don't want to, take steps to understand why and what can be done differently.
How does one counter the literal government of the state suggesting that you are unwelcome?
Is arresting state officials who are making your job more dangerous on the table? Can you target those spreading the sort of claims that make civilians treat you like an enemy?
We do remember that people have literally set up armed ambushes for ICE, right? They're objectively at risk of being shot by random civilians.
My exact compromise suggestion was "let the Minnesota authorities carry out the arrests safely" so we don't get Feds in the neighborhoods.
Is there any particular reason this wasn't feasible? (Rhetorical, we know they would refuse).
And if their reason for refusal is "we don't want Federal Immigration law enforced" then what exactly can you then do in response? Federal Law overrides state law under our current Constitutional setup!
"Try not to walk in front of vehicles" doesn't work well if the protestors are willing to physically obstruct things with their vehicles.
If you really want to get further and further back to the core causes, I'd point out "Don't allow unchecked illegal immigration when you have the power to prevent it" solves this entirely but that was a decision made WELL above the pay grades of those involved in this altercation.
its my same issue with regard to the demands for "Due Process" for immigration detainees. "Process" wasn't followed when these folks were entering the country, which necessarily makes it harder to provide process when removing them. There's now millions of them running around the country, so a massively increased LEO presence is the only way to make any headway for removal.
And more to the point, all the "We're playing nice and friendly" approach was pretty much how things were during most of Obama and Biden's terms, and THEY WERE STILL DEMONIZED. The 'Border Patrol Agent wielding a whip" framing happened during Biden's term.
So I'm all for accountability for Gov't agencies... but that has to go both ways. If elites and state official don't want immigration law enforced, and they aren't using the standard governmental process to change the law, it is not very reasonable for them to act in ways that gets regular people involved in conflicts with Gov't agents. They should put some of their own skin in the game.
I remain confused as to what the Anti-ICE side thinks is a reasonable outcome in response to this event. MASSIVE emphasis on REASONABLE.
Lets say the Officer is 100% at fault. He goes down for manslaughter. What changes would ICE need to make to their policies and training to satisfy you that it wouldn't happen again?
"Can't shoot if they're in car" is a nonstarter for reasons I've stated.
"Make every effort to de-escalate right up until they physically touch you?"
"Deploy non-lethal weapons even if they have a deadly weapon?"
MAYBE something like "never ever stand in front of a vehicle with a civilian behind the wheel, even during an arrest."
Only one that would probably prevent these situations on the ICE side is "Do not attempt arrests when protestors are present."
On the flip side "do not physically obstruct LEOs engaged in their lawful duties" is a rule that would avoid this outcome like 99% of the time, from the protestor's side.
Protesting and screaming and chanting and otherwise being an annoyance isn't outlawed, and if you truly believe they're doing something unlawful then sure, take matters into your own hands.
So the two options for avoiding future incidents seem to be "ICE stops enforcing immigration law in blue areas" or "Protestors stay physically out of the way while ICE is conducting enforcement actions."
Only one of these strikes me as "reasonable."
What am I missing?
I'm also pretty convinced that there were a variety of outcomes that could have resulted, and did result in alternate timelines.
One where the officer is gravely injured or killed b/c he was standing a little further towards the center of the car, and/or she turned the wheel to the left and he was struck, run over, dragged, and/or crushed, but the lady survived.
Also one where they're both injured or dead b/c he DID get off a shot before being run over.
One where the officer is safe because he moved out of the way in time and didn't deploy his weapon so she survived too.
And our current one where he's alive and she's dead not BECAUSE he shot her but because he happened to be able to get out of the way.
Probably SEVERAL where the officer is mostly uninjured and the lady survives b/c he missed all his shots.
I don't see there being any way to predict which of these outcomes would result if you were viewing this situation approximately 3 seconds before she presses the accelerator. So I don't really think throwing blame around solves for a more moral way things could have unfolded.
But under almost every circumstance described, the law would still support the officer firing at least one shot, because that uncertainty of outcome is WHY fearing for his life would be 'reasonable'
This is a very real experience any Pennsylvanian has had: driving your nice comfortable car on a nice modern highway between metropoles of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, you can end up at a gas station that time forgot very easily. Hell, driving from NYC to Syracuse, you briefly find yourself in towns where all the signs are in Hebrew and the locals make it very clear that the uncircumcised are unwelcome.
Back in 2011-2014 I would find myself driving the backroads of rural Southern Georgia several times a year. Places where you could drive 1-2 hours in any given direction and NOT hit anything truly resembling 'civilization.' And more importantly, places where there was no cell service and so you might find yourself having to navigate on dead reckoning if your smartphone (which weren't all that smart back in the day) wasn't helping.
One of these times, I was out there with no cell service and about two gallons of gas in the tank, with sunset looming in about an hour. This was a safe margin in most contexts, but here, no guarantees that I would find a gas station, or that it would be open for business if I did. I got kinda existential about it. It did evoke a sort of 'frontier survival' feeling in me. Where I had to make hard decisions under uncertainty, and ration my resources, invoke my wits, and hope that I didn't make a wrong turn that would seal my doom hours later. Nevermind that I could probably just knock on the nearest farmhouse door and most likely be fine.
Alas, I found a gas station, got back in a cell service area, and while I HAD gotten quite turned around, I would not have to shelter in my car for the night.
The backwoods of Georgia are still plenty spooky to drive on at night these days, but now they're more LEGIBLE with better cell coverage and starlink guaranteeing you're never without internet.
Last time I felt that frontier feeling was three years back, driving home after Hurricane Ian ravaged my area. I cooked meet on a wood fire, fell asleep to the hum of a generator, and had to go door-to-door to check on my neighbors. For all of three days. They got the power back on FAST.
Civilization has gotten to the point where even the most powerful natural disasters are just a waiting game to 'survive.'
Maybe this is why many popular horror movies over the past 10 or so years have used psychological allegories or "the monster is a metaphysical concept" to create fear. The innermost areas of our own brains might be the last place that terrible secrets can hide.
I guess Cosmic Horror can still manage to wring out some new ideas to make us afraid of what's OUT THERE (I take it that Pluribus is doing something like this?) but it can be hard to do without getting too cheesy
faceh
19hr ago
It makes sense for you to be noticing stuff that is in your community.
But I guess from the 10,000 foot view, most should not be nearly as attentive to one lady being tragically gunned down when there's real, world-altering activity afoot somewhere else.
Watching that film completely fresh, opening night, having ZERO clue as to how Ledger's performance would land, only knowing that he had died for it (in a certain sense) and then getting THAT FUCKING PERFORMANCE out of him was a transcendent experience.
Whenever Joker isn't on the screen, all the other characters should be asking, "where is the Joker?"
faceh
19hr ago
Its plain that the MCU as such would not exist if not for Iron Man being as freaking cool as it was, and also allowing the heroes to coalesce around a central figure that wasn't Spiderman. And using him as the catalyst for bringing Spidey into the MCU proper was a natural choice and done well.
And thus, killing him in Endgame made such beautiful thematic sense, it really made it impossible to continue the MCU as a coherent world after that point. Why keep watching if there's no chance a smarmy RDJ might show up and one-liner his way into and out of trouble and reveal new suit designs in the process, with the classic rock blaring all the time. A top 5 fave moment is his entrance in Avengers to confront Loki..
And as you say, he would wear out his welcome since there was nowhere else for the "iron man" concept to go after his magical nanobots mode.
Which was always going to be a problem. I think one of the best parts of Age of Ultron was the introduction of the Hulkbuster armor, showing that he puts a ton of thought into what designs he might need... but also showing this one as not quite up to the task it was built for and thus Stark isn't quite the walking 'counter everything' character that, say, Batman has a reputation as.
I dunno. Cap's my favorite of the main group, but Stark is what keeps me coming back.
faceh
20hr ago
Holy cow THIS.
Cluely's very clueless ad was the Reductio ad absurdum of this particular message.
"Use AI to cut corners on tasks you are ostensibly supposed to enjoy in order to gain, I guess social credit among people who will somehow not mind that you used AI?
No, can you show me the AI directly enriching my life? Making me wealthier? Cutting out tasks that I don't enjoy and nobody else relies on me to perform?
Perhaps the actual goal of the ad is what you suggest. "All your friends are going to cheat with these tools, don't be the sucker who is left out!"
Look, I don't even mind the concept of using LLMs as the enhanced Google replacement. I just hate that 'hype' is built around use cases that are not actually improving my general day-to-day experience, and if EVERYONE ELSE stats using it that way, might degrade my experience!
faceh
20hr ago
It does feel like a release of pressure even if the overall uncertainty remains.
That's an extra 5 years wherein I can die before the Godlike AI comes in and tortures me forever.
Exciting things can still happen in those 5 years with just the current capabilities. I'm still holding hope for anti-aging to be the next sincere frontier and AI to speed up research and produce new solutions.
I'm actually hopeful that self driving cars, autonomous drones, and humanoid robots will be available as consumer grade products by 2030.
Drug discovery and Math and physics research and ultimately biohacking being unleashed would allow for manmade horrors AND manmade delights that are within our comprehension.
And if VIDEO production by AI keeps improving, I might be able to make that custom anime series I've had ideas for.
There might be a "Golden Path" available where AI plateaus right at the level where it can exponentially boost productivity while never quite nosing into true super-intelligence for reasons that may or may not be understood.
I don't think that's our trajectory, but managing to solve our most pressing issues without creating existential risk would be a miracle and proof that God loves us. Expert Systems everywhere would be pretty cool.
faceh
20hr ago
It is pretty interesting on the meta level that the shooting was a good enough scissor that it generated much more discussion, vs. the abduction of a sitting (if not quite legitimate) head of state by the U.S. and the ongoing revolution fomenting in a country of 90 million people, and a major regional power.
Something something near mode vs. far mode.
faceh
21hr ago
Incentives running both ways is not a good reason to amplify and encourage them.
I'm just saying, in binary outcome markets... if your complaint is "This creates an incentive to do X!" it necessarily ALSO creates an incentive to do NOT X, since there's people on both sides of the bet who stand to win if the event does or doesn't occur.
This is why the concept of 'Futarchy' (if Prediction markets REALLY gain acceptance) would function.
faceh
21hr ago
State and local law enforcement do not have the jurisdiction to enforce federal law
Nah, just execute an arrest pursuant to a federal warrant in cooperation with a Federal Agency.
feds can get away with ignoring local political sentiments in ways that local police cannot,
That is the actual, explicit goal.
Hence, giving up the game.
And since immigration enforcement is FOR SURE squarely, unquestionably within the purview of the Federal Government, the resistance to it on the part of state officials is blatantly insurrectiony in nature.
faceh
21hr ago
He also got married, which is quite a checkpoint achievement compared to others in his age group.
It looks like he has a shot at getting his life together after a realllly sucky couple years.
I guess I'm just saying he should never want for a job for the next 10 years, and should only have to appear in public because he wants to.
faceh
3d ago
It appears that Daniel Penny got hired by Andreessen Horowitz.
Good point, although I'd guess he actually had some merit to warrant the position.
faceh
3d ago
Hell, the right's problem seems to be that they won't come to the aid of their 'heroes' once they've been expunged of all their usefulness and 15 minutes of fame.
As a purely strategic matter, Kyle Rittenhouse, after his not-guilty, should have been given an easy, decently paying job at a think tank or some state-level political office, keep him generally out of public eye but also comfortable enough standard of living. Instead he's working at a gun store in the Florida Panhandle.
Nobody expects that becoming a sacrifice for the right's cause will get them any material rewards or posthumous accolades. I would point out that people have already sort of forgotten Iryna.
Vance at least is making all the right signals for backing the foot soldiers. I doubt they throw their people under the bus anymore. One of the biggest signs of the changing times came when an ICE prosecutor with a blatantly racist Twitter account didn't get fired when it came out.
Leftists always double down has been a known thing for a while now.
The irony i'm seeing is the tacit admission that this video makes the victim look like a hostile interloper while the ICE Officer was calmly filming the interaction... and some are claiming her 'bravely' confronting him is why he wanted to shoot her.
As proof of this, they point out he called her a 'bitch' under his breath after the incident. Y'know, after she drove the car at him.
Dropped all pretense of "just some random passerby".
On twitter I was just accused of lacking empathy for simply pointing out that this video makes her look very aware of her actions and very much not a pure victim of circumstance.
I don't think the right should be holding the dude up as a hero or anything, either, but the lefty impulse to make martyrs out of their people seems to be irresistible to them.
faceh
3d ago
Not what I said. Firing into a fleeing vehicle is one thing. But if the criminal is aware they can run down an officer without being fired upon...
Its a very perverse incentive, to say the least. "Why not add vehicular manslaughter to my array of charges in exchange for a 2% chance of escaping for a few more hours."
faceh
3d ago
Yes. Unfortunately "Police Officers are not allowed to shoot people driving vehicles at them" is an untenable position since it basically makes it open season for any given criminal who wants to blast their way out of a traffic stop or chase.
faceh
3d ago
I mostly see lefties sliding goalposts.
Which is to say, they are 'changing' their minds, but only exactly as much as needed to maintain the outrage.
And if I were the Defendant's attorney I wouldn't want you on my jury panel (nothing personal, of course, lol).
If you care about such things, here's a video I watched recently about self defense law in the context of shootings (based on Florida law) for my continuing legal education credits.
Tons of different circumstances came into it. Both the alleged victim and the Defendant were intoxicated, there was a group of guys against the Defendant, Defendant had bad eyesight, his glassed got knocked off, he was not legally allowed to be carrying a gun into the bar he entered...
Aaaand the decedent had a couple holes in his back. And there was a community outrage against the Defendant, complete with vigils/protests. Bunch of witnesses painted a very negative picture for the guy that was later disproven with video footage.
The Defense in that case go to the trouble of syncing up multiple video angles with sound, annotating it, recreating the scene digitally, and pulling in literal neurological experts to explain reaction times and panic reactions. Hundreds of thousands of dollars expended to give the jury a 'complete' understanding of the situation.
Except it never made it to a Jury because the Judge ruled it was justified and thus granted immunity for the homicide charges. Not the gun charges, incidentally.
So if I did my job right, the case wouldn't even make it to you, the juror.
slow clap
More options
Context Copy link