faceh
2hr ago
...the other factor is that she's presumably willing to defer to the Father's judgment as to who she should date and marry, which gives dad a large say in selecting a worthy man and scaring away the Lotharios.
After all, he has an EXTREME amount at stake and thus has incentive to help her select the best as possible... and possibly to punish those who do commit abuse.
We still do that whole "Father walks the bride down the aisle and 'gives her away' to the Groom" at weddings. WHY DO YOU THINK THAT IS?
faceh
3hr ago
Something approaching half of them are projected to be single by 2030
If that's not a result of 'refusing to settle' en masse then what could it be.
And my basic reminder, I am more than happy to look at data you present that contradicts my point, or accept any argumentation pointing out where my analysis is flawed.
Anyway, here's testimony from a matchmaker (also a female) about the standards put forth by a 31-year-old single woman. "There are a decent number of profiles like this."
faceh
4hr ago
Fermi estimates are the best we can do for now.
But when you START with the fact that 40% of women are obese, you've already shrunk the pool considerably, and every criteria you add shrinks it further, you start to see the shape of the problem.
(Yes, about the same % of men are also obese. There's research that obese men are fine settling for obese women but the reverse is not true. This is borne out by my personal observations.)
Then you get the spike in mental illnesses, the increasing amounts of debt held by women, the spike in LGBT identification, the increase in sexual partners (I'd wager this is anti-correlated with obesity but who knows), and the decreased prioritization of marriage and you can visualize how each of these is narrowing the non-obese pool significantly.
Even if the error bars are pretty huge, I have little problem believing <10% of single women out there are really 'appealing' as partners.
faceh
4hr ago
Very fair summary and counter. I will not relitigate anything but this:
If you get your life together as a young man, you will be fine in the dating market, it will very quickly be tilted in your favor and not hers.
It has of course recently been discussed (at long last) just how hard the deck was stacked against young men over the last 15 years.
https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-lost-generation/
So I simply point out that the things guys are supposed to achieve to make THEM seem marriageable are dangled further out of reach of many of them based on nothing but their gender and color of their skin. They are not imposing these restrictions on themselves.
Whereas, as I point out on occasion, literally every change in gender-based policy in the U.S. for the past 50 years has been in favor of women. It has put more of them in education, the workplace, and granted them outsized political power. (this also has NOT made them any happier).
So these men are expected to work harder than ever just to overcome the systemic bias, with the reward of pulling from a pool of women who are less appealing than ever, whilst the entire legal/economic edifice of their country is trying to slow them down.
So I think it is absolutely hard for an individual man to tilt the market in his favor unless he he lucked out in rolling his stats to have high charisma, rich parents, and good genes for height/aesthetics.
"Get your life together" is one hell of a lift for, I'd say, 60% of young men, especially because it'll take like 5+ years of solid work to hit the point where they'd be noticeable as a potential partner, and even then its not a guarantee.
And this shows up in the fact that many men just opt out of dating rather than accept constant psychological damage they're powerless to change.
faceh
18hr ago
That's a very cynical point of view,
My cynical point of view has an extremely good track record of predictions, sad to say.
I mean, what, is he supposed to lock his wife up at home so you don't suspect him in "showing off"?
Should he have? She ended up leaving him. His extant strategy clearly didn't work.
I don't think it is fair to demand from everybody who shared one's opinion publicly to become full-time role model.
For better or worse, he adopted that approach, near daily streaming and constant commentary on daily events
You could definitely pick WORSE role models, but I think he was happily putting himself out there in that regard.
faceh
18hr ago
I saw the list of countries that had tariffs on us, and it suggests that there's a larger strategy of reducing overall trade barriers by forcing everyone else to reduce their own tariffs in the eventual trade deals.
I've talked about this point at some length.
If you haven't figured out that Trump likes to use door in the face in the opening rounds of a negotiation for an eventually agreed deal, don't know what to tell you. Its in that book he wrote.
faceh
18hr ago
Vance and Rubio, if they continue to play cards right, should be able to form a strong ticket by all accounts.
If Trump does manage a 'clean' handoff of power to one or both of those guys (preferably Vance) that may just be the single best legacy he can leave.
faceh
22hr ago
Yeah, hence why an institution that can try to build up the next candidate to receive the blessing seems like a necessary component.
Trump himself is popular amongst people who voted for him, I expect that to remain true.
Nominally this would be a job for the Republican Party apparatus but lol.
Yeah. It seems unprecedented in modern history, especially modern American history for a leader to have a sufficiently large cult of personality that when they leave it would be all but impossible for the next candidate to inherit their predecessor's supporters without their explicit blessing.
I guess... North Korea? They solve it by straightforward passing to the next of kin, along with a massive propaganda campaign to deify each successive leader, right?
Actually... I have never questioned it but who is in charge of NK's institution that upholds the Juche ideology and propagandizes the masses? In theory THAT is who is ensuring peaceful transition of power.
Edit: Oh my. Currently its his sister. I guess that tracks.
faceh
1d ago
Is it really 'narcissism' when you are actually that good?
Okay, that's a joke. I mean, he is THAT GOOD, if the talent in question is making everything about himself.
But that also gives him a weak form of Skin in the Game, where he actually DOES want 'good' things to happen since that is precisely what will enable the best legacy for him. It helps that he's seemingly got no real malice as part of his self-aggrandizement (maybe a little, he sure does seem to despise Obama), and generally prefers cooperative outcomes for all involved parties.
If we achieve a lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine, and he insists that the Peace agreement be called "Treaty on Russian–Ukrainian Mutual Peace", do I care that much?
No, not really.
My overarching concern has been that his 'movement' is so tied up in his ego it isn't clear if it CAN move on to anyone else once he's out of office, and that will be a major problem if there's no clear successor.
Very related to a tweet I saw that pointed out that the BBC (and Netflix) has created an unintended issue where they portray all the female characters, especially those in relationships, as hypercompetent and strong, while their male partners can be incompetent and silly.
But they ALSO tend to portray interracial couples with the male being black and the female white. So there's now an abundance of bumbling black male characters that gets uncomfortably close to looking like a minstrel show portayal. But they're trapped insofar as its impossible to portray the gender-swapped scenario.
I don't watch enough media to confirm with my own eyes, but this is pretty funny in its own right.
faceh
2d ago
What he was probably not ok with is for his success as a cartoonist defining him for the rest of his life
Hence why I find myself with quite a bit more respect for Bill Watterson.
Go out on top, then do things you want to do without the eye of the public following you everywhere.
faceh
2d ago
I don't think he ever used his marriage as a selling point for his books, did he?
In the way that any dude having a hot girl on his arm is using her as a 'selling point' just by showing her off, I'd argue.
I just recall a period of time where she was showing up in his posts with semi-regularity in a kind of "Look at what I got fuckers" context. Can only find this one piece of evidence left, though. Wait, here's another.
Nobody owes anybody to be anybody's role model.
Slight disagree, only insofar as someone who actively chooses to convey advice and represent themselves as a person worth emulating... you kind of do owe it to your audience to be very open about failures as well as successes.
Or if you don't care to advertise failure, don't seek the audience.
But that much I will 100% say: he never, ever did grift off his audience. No crypto schemes, no scammy seminars or conferences, no shilling for sketchy brands or gambling sites (that I recall).
(I'm not counting his failed entrepreneurship attempts as scams because part of the reason they failed is he plugged them earnestly.)
What Scott's obituary does seem to acknowledge is that Scott WAS living life on his terms, and there's beauty in that, but he argues he kind of let that get swept away when he got a taste of true 'influence.'
I grappled with my self-identification as a 'nerd' for a while before mostly just leaving it behind a while back.
I like nerdy things, and was unapologetic about this. But to identify as a 'nerd' meant making certain things a facet of my identity. Which made me uncomfortable because I was really just into these things because... I found them fun, challenging, and weird in a pleasant way. Tabletop gaming is an amazing social activity, and I don't find most sports to be compelling enough to follow, so not a surprise where I gravitated.
Like, okay, I'm into outer space, rockets and scifi, I am really into computers, I think the 'internet' as a technology is cool, and I like gadgets. I feel an affinity for hacker culture and I play video games as a hobby...
But I also don't feel a need to dump copious amounts of disposable income into proving my credentials and keeping up with 'fads'. Don't really treat it as a lifestyle that requires certain commitments to fit in and buying lots of CONSOOMER goods as a prerequisite.
Hmmm. Maybe that right there is the factor. I dislike the culture the instant it becomes a pure status competition, and the status climbing becomes the point more than the factors that made it an attractive, enjoyable collection of shared interests.
Something something Geeks MOPS Sociopaths.
faceh
2d ago
Right, but "take what you can get" is not the ethos he was trying to embody, I think.
"Follow all this advice and read my books and you too might be able to marry a hot single mother for a couple years" is not a massive selling point on its own.
I'm being a tad uncharitable, but I just find it interesting how Adams was able to maintain an image of his prowess that seemingly exceeded the reality of his capabilities.
I just have a larger amount of respect for Bill Watterson, who ALSO published a beloved, wildly popular comic strip. But he ended it while he was on top, disappeared from public life, does whatever it is he enjoys doing, and has eschewed any and all attempts to merchandise or monetize his characters (this appears wiser and wiser every year).
This gets towards Scott's other aside about various intellectuals who he seems to think have beclowned themselves in moving beyond the areas that they achieved their original insights and following.
Knowing when to exit before you crumble your own legacy is a talent very, very few exceptional people have achieved. Scott would like to be one of them, I'm sure.
faceh
2d ago
"Its okay to be a mediocre businessman."
"Its okay to be childless."
"Its okay to have a singular crowning achievement that defines your success."
Its specifically the non-spectacular aspects of himself that he seemed to want to avoid acknowledging.
faceh
2d ago
The best part of my job is that I have significant autonomy to select the clients I accept. And if one of them has an "interesting" legal problem to solve and they are willing to pay for the work, I can take on those jobs to keep things fresh.
Thats how I became probably a top 10 expert in a very particular area of Florida construction law.
The drudgery pays the bills, the occasional novel matter keeps me from bashing my head in.
Embrace the suck. Then you'll have more power to achieve success on your own terms.
The only insight I have on the porn issue is that I found that back when I DID have a partner, and I was getting laid with some regularity, the urge to pull up porn just evaporated.
Whatever it is about that urge, for me, when I feel secure that I'll be sating it in the near future (even within a day or two) with an actual human, I feel no need to settle for a simulacra.
Compare it to resisting the urge to snack on junk food during the day because you know you're having a steak dinner later.
Oh I saw it, I'm just not convinced it was a clear L for him.
There was some back-and-forth (particularly from Jeremy Kauffman) regarding how much actual discipline you can and should impose on your toddlers.
I doubt kids that have his genes will turn into uncontrollable feral monsters.
It was all about how he'd seen kids like me before, who were never properly challenged and developed poor study habits. That if I didn't reform my ways, I'd either flunk out of college or flounder professionally.
I could have used one of those. Mostly for the wakeup call of "everything is intuitive and easy for your now because the training wheels are on, and your intelligence is covering for your shortcomings in discipline and work ethic."
Law School was the clear inflection point there. Turns out you CAN pass tests by pulling all-nighters to cram the entirety of the coursework the day before the Exam. But when you're graded against people with more consistent habits and effective strategies, you can only hope to keep pace by sheer desperate improvisation.
I didn't really learn the right lesson, though.
This period:
came back around by embracing the 'suck' and interrogating myself honestly about my 'shortcomings' and inflated self-expectations and worked on calibrating my goals to what would be truly achievable
Was when I finally got on the right track.
"Work smarter, not harder". But then they melt down in seething rage when someone works smart and hard and utterly mogs them on their own turf.
lol. "I'm not lazy, I'm just more productive with the time I DO use for work."
"Ookay, well I'm approximately as productive as you with my time, and I spend more of it working... what now?"
That said, the extreme other end of that mentality is the "Sigma Male Grindset" approach where effort is all that matters, whether that effort is spent on something useful and important? Who cares! Getting paid is the only metric that registers.
Thankfully I now have a boss who tolerates my quirks well enough as long as I close enough files to keep the cash flowing.
Maybe the lesson is to line yourself up before 50, to make the glide onto the landing strip as graceful as possible.
I think that's all you can do under current tech constraints.
lol now I'm wondering whether kids in the future will be dealing with a 120-year-old Bryan Johnson who can't accept future social rules b/c he's 'stuck' in the 2030s mentally, despite having the body of a 30-year-old.
For my case, I'm just trying to create habits now that seem to correlate with decent neuroplasticity later. Martial arts and hard exercise, learning languages, good quality sleep, and playing with kids and friends all seem to help.
faceh
3d ago
He makes a few references to Adams' potentially getting too mentally calcified with age to maintain his contradictory ideals and personas and just lost self-awareness of what parts of the joke he was supposed to be 'in' on, and who was laughing with him vs. at him.
I now do wonder how Scott expects to avoid this particular outcome or if he's accepting it as probably baked in and just wants to make sure he leaves the greatest possible legacy he can, on top of his kids.
Great stuff though. One thing that deflated Adams' image in my mind was when the gorgeous Instagram model he married in 2020 divorced him about two years later. Like, if you're going to advertise as this professional persuasive hypnotist guru... and you can't 'persuade' the young hottie to stick around in your life for more than a couple years, I suggest that your skills are overstated. Indeed, this sure reads like he got hypnotized into a situation by some of the oldest persuasive tools in human history: a woman with an hourglass figure and decent makeup skills.
Think its fair to say that his overall impact has been positive by any utilitarian calculation.
The bit just before that, man.
Every nerd who was the smartest kid in their high school goes to an appropriately-ranked college and realizes they’re nothing special. But also, once they go into some specific field they find that intellect, as versatile as it is, can only take them so far. And for someone who was told their whole childhood that they were going to cure cancer (alas, a real quote from my elementary school teacher), it’s a tough pill to swallow.
Reaction formation, where you replace a unbearable feeling with its exact opposite, is one of the all time great Freudian defense mechanisms. You may remember it from such classics as “rape victims fall in love with their rapist” or “secretly gay people become really homophobic”. So some percent of washed-up gifted kids compensate by really, really hating nerdiness, rationality, and the intellect.
Literally my course from high school valedictorian, to 85th percentile college student, to barely-above-average law student.
Then I kind of came back around by embracing the 'suck' and interrogating myself honestly about my 'shortcomings' and inflated self-expectations and calibrating my goals to what would be truly achievable (funny enough Slate Star Codex was a major influence in that period!).
Also, this line is an insanely deft cut to the jugular, holy cow.
Adams was willing to sacrifice everything for the right to say “It’s Okay To Be White”. I can’t help wondering what his life would have been like if he’d been equally willing to assert the okayness of the rest of his identity.
faceh
4d ago
Oversimplifying the question, it really does have to be "great long term rewards are completely contingent on cooperating with others repeatedly."
Some mechanic like "if you successfully complete one dungeon with a given team, you can all choose to roll the rewards from the win into an 'investment' in the next dungeon run that will increase overall payout for the next success, and you can keep rolling those wins over until certain special items/top tier loot are available."
And then defection has to have a decent chance of severe and lasting punishment.
There is the paradox, though, when you have PvP games with Factions, the players want to fight other players, other factions, so you can't make your game too utopic or the fights won't happen, at least not as often as you'd like.
And on that note, the whole issue is that a game is (supposedly) optimizing for 'fun' for the players (and money for the devs) and players will have divergent ideas of what they find 'fun.' Many will find griefing others fun, some will find it fun to play a lone wolf, some just want to kill things. I don't know if its 'possible' to design the game from the ground up such that cooperation is consistently the most fun thing a player can do most of the time.
I've sometimes thought about game design where the factions aren't just different aesthetically or with different perks, weapons, powers, etc., but they are also different ideologically, in a way that is enforced by the game's code.
You can have the Capitalist faction where players are free to trade with their fellow players, enter contracts determining how to split loot in advance, and accumulate unlimited amounts of resources to yourself.
The Communists where there's an 'equality of outcome' mechanic so that everyone gets rewards divided up "according to their need" to equalize everyone's capabilities and wealth, and presumably a HARD cap (voted on by players) to the max wealth any one person can ever get.
Monarchists where all rewards belong to the 'King' and he bestows them as he prefers (unless deposed by an underling, I guess).
Fascists who can each control their own wealth but the wealth can be seized or a player 'executed' for the good of the faction.
Pure Democracy where every player gets a vote on every decision, and none are allowed to opt-out.
Gerontocracy where the most 'senior' players get to have outsized political and economic power.
Technocracy where players with the highest skills points in certain areas get to make all decisions regarding those areas.
Hell, have a Degenerate Gamblocracy where all loot and rewards are divided solely by games of chance.
I feel like there's probably a Minecraft mod out there that does something like this.
I think there's a (relatively thin) slice of Blue Collar skilled professional who has made out extremely well due to a relative dearth of competition for a smorgasbord of work in the trades. Lot of dudes getting rich off working in oil fields or, more recently, Data Center construction.
But... we can't ignore the immigration surge exerting pressure on e.g. construction work, trucking, unskilled trades.
So different pressures... but still impact that would fall primarily on males. And still arguably coming from the same source (political favortism for groups other than white males).
Anyhow, they're still struggling on the partnership front.
https://wng.org/roundups/study-shows-working-class-men-arent-getting-married-1749503094
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