Lizzardspawn
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User ID: 594
Lizzardspawn
2hr ago
So pretty mild stuff, although I do find your definition of AGI/ASI somewhat texas sharpshooter style. On the other hand no one seems to have to be able to define those things in a way that is better so there's that.
Lizzardspawn
2hr ago
Still useful, but picking off only mildly interesting results that haven't received much focus isn't world changing.
It is. Quantity has quality of its own. Even if LLM peak below humans, a stupider brain that is inexhaustible, can work 24/7 and can be scaled to infinity means that a lot of intellectual things could be bruteforced in the million monkeys with million typewriters way. Throw at a million small problems and there will be breakthrough somewhere.
Lizzardspawn
7hr ago
I usually buy some with clean design from Temu/Aliexpress that cost 30$, have really clean design and have lots of their movement exposed. A good skeleton watch is mesmerizing.
Lizzardspawn
7hr ago
Can you post to some of your forecasts? I know that you are bullish on the tech - but my vague impression was that they survived a sanity check - aka were not like the wet nightmares of AI2027
Lizzardspawn
7hr ago
It is entirely possible that Mythos will turn less-audited codebases (e.g. closed source or more niche open source) into a blood bath.
But so will almost any other capable model.
Lizzardspawn
12hr ago
Also check this https://modelrift.com/blog/openscad-llm-benchmark/
What was magic 6 months ago is boring and insufficient now. Also couple of AI uses last week - to decrypt pragrmata save, find and edit values of the upgrade currencies, rehash and resign. Fix some blutooth issues - it took it half an hour but managed to pair the troublesome adapter and mouse combo.
Even if the technology stop dead in the tracks now - we will need at least five years until all the effects and possibilities are clear.
Lizzardspawn
20hr ago
I think that Mythos like everything else from Anthropic is crap mixed with bullshit, but two things of note here - curl is absolutely tiny and is one of the most heavily scrutinized pieces of software ever written. The other is probably putty. And the easy hanging fruit was already picked.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
What is the point of DNC when Trump is doing more and better work than them for putting Democrats into power?
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
I hate pearl clutching on the lefties side, but I also hate it on mine. He is troll and edgelord or maybe a bit stupid and fanatic. But so far nothing disqualifying. I would take X of him instead of the squad.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
I think that every success of Ukraine so far is just the fallout of Musk cutting off starlink for Russia. Which was made worse by their crackdown on telegram. And their own constellations not being online. Momentum is a fickle bitch.
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
Yes but afterwards the activist industrial complex spilled into all the other causes. And they managed to instill their monoculture in the tech giants for almost a decade. Now of course the workers there are scared because of the layoffs and are less politically active - as the obedient drones should be, but do you remember the first Trump admin?
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
The pentagon better get winning then. Personally I think that even genocide in Iran will be better for Trump than quagmire.
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
I would say that this is the time social networks started to become influential, dissatisfied millennials were looking for outlet, the blue tribe convinced itself that its values are universal and must be imposed on the infidels, because the only good jobs left were in FAANG they had to be diversified and so on.
9/11 was the date post cold war world order ended. And 90s were indeed the golden age of the west - democratization of tech, the anarchy that was the early internet, the creative explosion in gaming, the unwritten belief that history has ended.
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
Except the modern US is system of unaccountable power and not of separated one. You have many agencies that are neither accountable to the president nor the congress and have the capacity to make and enforce regulations as if they are both.
Lizzardspawn
4d ago
I would say gay marriage in the USA. That is when crybulling really really picked up and people started seeing the USA as just a set of ill gotten spoils that needed to be redistributed.
Probably 9/11 is the previous point, but I think up to 2010 things were pretty normal.
Lizzardspawn
5d ago
I am not sure why the /s ... after the black album Metallica have 1 good song and it is a cover of Thin Lizzy.
Lizzardspawn
5d ago
I know that I grew up under a rock by late '90s/early '00s standards (rural Alabama) but I had no idea that Metallica had an album other than the Black Album until 2006.
It is best if you think of the Black Album as the last album of Metallica anyway.
Lizzardspawn
5d ago
Hmm.. Almost anything Chris Avellone has touched comes to mind.
Lizzardspawn
5d ago
So are korean cookbooks.
Lizzardspawn
6d ago
Evenmore, all meat products became untasty and rot very fast, so I can't cook for 1-2 days and be done with it.
Sous vide is your friend. While it shines for proteins for a small investment of 120$ (decent circulator+ vacuum) allows you to precook prodigious amounts of food that afterwards stays without spoiling in the fridge for months - almost anything you could cook is well beyond 7d pasteurization.
Lizzardspawn
6d ago
A plugin system for Outfox/DDR that would remove blue and yellow arrows. So right now it is an endless stream of easy 5 songs, very good for cardio.
Lizzardspawn
8d ago
God is quantum gravity or dark matter. We have looked up the gravity well to the galaxies and there is no god. We have looked downwards is chemistry quantum mechanics and there is no god. So only two places for him to exist are in the interaction of those those two yet irreconcilable theories or that mysterious thing that is 5 time more than all baryonic matter.
So some vast entangled conscious network spanning the whole galaxy - why not. The case for human consciousness being related to quantum effects is getting stronger - that would explain quite well some weird stuff going on. And as a bonus - due to Heisenberg principle free will does exist.
Lizzardspawn
9d ago
- No. Never interrupt your opponent when they are making a mistake. The conventional wisdom is that Iran was is a mistake. No need to believe that Xi advisors are of different opinion.
- Probably some AI safety pact that makes sure that only China and USA have advanced AI.
- Absolutely no. China is not infringing the rights on people that someone gives a fuck about.
- How can you change something that doesn't exists. The US is in strategic ambiguity for so long that I am not convinced that coherent position even exists.
- Nope.
Lizzardspawn
10d ago
That is not how it will work. Every product is a series of decisions. Which is the bottleneck in our post chatgpt world for software development. To get a fully tailored solution you will have to take them. And we don't know if we can train AI to approximate a specific human good enough, so that your eventual virtual avatar could take them.
The whole of civilization and industrialization has been underpinned by using energy to achieve superhuman feats. Most of the worries so far about AI are thin veil for some people's fear that their greatest labor asset will lose value rapidly. And probably some narcissistic injury if we are using LP definitions.
If I didn't get worried that we created cars that could run 20 times faster than a human 24/7 or that we have trivialized the magic of flying to the point that it is utterly trivial, boring and so on, why should I worry that some machine will think better than me. Hell - I should be worried if we don't invent such a machine. Whatever you can think of - we are running out of it - out of soil, out of biomass, out of oil. We need faster science progression to get out of the trap that is our lovely blue planet.
And your predictions are tame because they fit linear advancement at current rates. And we will probably get there even on log. Your definition of AGI is modest.
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