Lizzardspawn
No bio...
User ID: 594
Lizzardspawn
3hr ago
Do you have links towards serious analysis why polls are terribly wrong that is not fueled by binge on copium and hopium?
Lizzardspawn
3hr ago
I agree with you. Doesn't change the fact that USA is unfortunately functioning democracy and people are swayed by the strain on their wallets. If Trump manages to hold to some legislative power he may as well be celebrated as visionary 20 years down the line - especially when we see what joy and benefits diversity brings on France's streets now. But doesn't change that winning elections in democracy is not optional.
Lizzardspawn
3hr ago
Polymarket believes blue wave, Nate silver believes blue wave, polls predict blue wave, RCP believes blue wave, rumors are that GOP insiders believe blue wave, I am pro Trump also - but I think that his absolute remarkable dumb political luck has finally ran out. A nominal majority is control when it comes to appointments and passing laws.
Lizzardspawn
3hr ago
Second most important. The most important always will be cost of living. And the only way I could characterize the Trump foreign policy signature issue - tariffs is difunctional.
Lizzardspawn
4hr ago
I am genuinely surprised that the polls insist on a Democrat sweep at this stage.
The Trump administration has been extraordinarily chaotic. And dysfunctional. Also war.
Lizzardspawn
6hr ago
The USA is definitely getting little bang for its buck procurement wise.
Lizzardspawn
21hr ago
There is a reason why Slaanesh is called she who thirsts. She definitely fits the lore.
Lizzardspawn
21hr ago
I would strongly suggest you read The Sarantine Mosaic. Thank me later.
Lizzardspawn
21hr ago
Julian
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
Steinbeck is the closest the USA has produced to "Russian literature masterpiece" and Florence Pugh is too full of vis vitalis to make good tragic characters. She just doesn't have the slowly weathered away soul and suffering in solitude in it.
Lizzardspawn
1d ago
It was.
Lizzardspawn
2d ago
That is only because they couldn't cast Pedro Pascal as Cathy. At least they got the skin color right.
Lizzardspawn
2d ago
Glide bombs are awesome. I await eagerly the day when someone will reinvent that the easiest lift is with automated zeppelins and make carpet bombing great again.
Lizzardspawn
3d ago
One of the things I find annoying about the whole free palestine thing is that people conflate palestine with gaza. And while a case could be made that Gazans deserve what happens to them by using "Russians deserve what happens to them" as template, it is the west bank where israel is doing unjustified things.
Western media outlets are variously referring to the incident as an "altercation", "fight" or "brawl" between pilots, rather than as a foiled act of jidahi terrorism.
Probably because it isn't clear cut. In the last couple of years we have had cases where pilots wanted to roleplay as MCAS - Germanwings, MH370 (at least at the end, the air india 787 couple of months ago and one case in which china refuses to release the details.
It is not extraordinary. Or more specifically the extraordinary is that he didn't succeed.
Lizzardspawn
6d ago
Thanks. Fixed.
there was "free pussy upstairs". It's not quite conclusive proof, but it's much better proof than I expected. At this point my assessment is that the accusation is probably basically real.
Proof of what exactly? It proves that there was train happening upstairs - which no one has disputed I think. Whether it was rape depends on whether she was capable of consent and if she gave it. That exact quote doesn't swing in any direction.
Points against that being rape is that during the woke era in a woke institution administered and ruled by woke people trough and trough - that this was covered up is strange.
For is that she did drugs.
Lizzardspawn
7d ago
You forgot Israel/Palestine as the other big axis. Personally I hope for massive im or explosion. I am sure that the main issues of Europe can't be solved democratically so we need some proper chaos to even have a chance of solving them.
Rural - you know all the people by name that you meet outside of your job in a day.
Suburban - you know half of the people you meet in any given day outside of your job.
Urban - you know minority of the people you meet in a day, most of them are your direct neighbors.
Lizzardspawn
14d ago
I have often said it, will repeat it again - school outcome is not a matter of resources, but will. Carrot, stick, blackboard, chalk, some paper, pen and 1952 schoolbooks and well stocked library is enough if the teacher wants to teach, and pupils to learn.
What she describes is not school, but ghetto kindergarten. And well - you get ghetto results. No matter how much resources you pour - the outcome will always be shit. Money can't fix culture, they can only express it more.
The problem is that everyone has rights, no one has obligations. So you can't actually impose discipline in any meaningful way.
Slightly offtopic - one of the strangest things in american media is how it treats suspension as big deal and punishment. As if there will be a kid that will be sad out of 2 more weeks of vacation.
While more than one-third of Unison students have learning disabilities, 17 percent of students at Najya’s high school do.
Those are absurd and outrageous numbers. That have as much connection with reality as her 1619 project.
Lizzardspawn
14d ago
Pitch this to Brussels - Europe has two problems now - Russia's war on Ukraine and excess of economically unproductive male migrants. Mass deploying your offensive tactics will solve both beautifully.
Lizzardspawn
14d ago
https://old.reddit.com/r/CrackWatch/comments/p9ak4n/crack_watch_games/
UNCRACKED/UNBYPASSED DENUVO GAMES There are no uncracked/unbypassed SP Offline denuvo exclusive games as of April 26th, 2026. Well done to all the crackers and bypass developers. Denuvo VR Games have all been cracked/bypassed on May 5th, 2026.
Lizzardspawn
14d ago
Everybody played along because otherwise they'd face punishment ranging from what we call "cancellation" today, to prison, various degrees of torture, or disappearing in mysterious circumstances.
You are wrong. The great divergence really picked up speed in the late 70s. By that time no one really bothered with oppression seriously. Except probably Ceausescu and Erich Honecker. The whole 80s were spent waiting for the regimes to just die.
I believe that Nate Silver wants to be right and does his best.
Now the question is not whether you take said sources seriously, but whether you do it consistently or not. Empirical evidence is that people that are under the impression they are winning are not busy unskewing the polls. When the Iowa gold standard poll came out two years ago, republicans didn't try to prove that it is wrong, they just laughed at it. With good reasons.
I have taken Nate seriously for more than a decade so far (and he has always given Trump higher chances than the rest of his cohort, so there is that), so if I have to make exception now - there has to be good reasons for it. This year may be different - but the only different thing so far is that I really dislike his prognosis.
Now if your gut tells you that Republicans are in better shape than presented, and said gut was also mostly right about the 2016-2024 elections - I will say - great - a track record is a track record.
More options
Context Copy link