MollieTheMare
No bio...
User ID: 875
MollieTheMare
3d ago
I mean, mollie the mare has 200 comments, it's not a dormant troll.
I appreciate you posting this. Pretty rich for a guy with their posting history hidden to accuse someone else of being a troll. I don't post as much as the more prolific users of the forum, but it would have been trivial to check if I was a sleeper account.
MollieTheMare
3d ago
Conditional on:
- The plane being capable of autoland
- The MSFS model near study level
- There is a CAT III runway within range with ample fuel reserves and favorable weather
- The real fighter pilot has only ever flow fighters and fast jet trainers (No you're in a 737 and he's flown a P-8 Poseidon)
The basement dweller. Otherwise the fighter pilot. In the first case everyone will probably walk away with quite a story to tell. In the second everyone will probably survive, but there might be some injuries and the plane is probably going to be totaled.
MollieTheMare
5d ago
This video has fairly recent US numbers, pause at the time stamp for the table.
Absolute cheapest are lentils and skim milk. Cheapest "pure" protein sources are chicken, canned fish, and whey. He doesn't have soy protein on there, but it's probably about the same as whey if you are doing isolate. It's probably slightly better to space your intake out rather than having all your protein in one giant bolus, especially for whey. Two feedings is already a lot better than one. You probably face diminishing returns beyond four.
MollieTheMare
7d ago
the trend line was bang on at 500cal/day ≈ 1lb/wk
It's very strange to me this is controversial. You don't have to rely on an small sample studies or individual anecdotes. Thousands of serious bodybuilders track year round. To the point of using an activity tracker to track general physical activity, having a detailed log for total resistance training volume, and eating & measuring common foods to the gram. Essentially universally they find that an offset of 500 kcal/day from maintenance is good for a pound a week, with maybe a variability of 100 kcal.
Now tracking everything too the gram is annoying. Peoples sense of hunger and motivation differ, etc. As hunger develops it's supper easy to spray that cooking spray for 1 second instead of 0.2. It says 0 Cals on the back, but it's not it's 9 kcal per gram. For two items per meal, four meals per day, and 1 gram per spray that's 7.5 pounds of body weight per year. Additionally, in a deep deficit, if you don't use an activity tracker, it's easy to go down to 5k steps a day from 10k steps a day.
So if your eating and activity are driven by intuition or satiation knowing about CICO does not make you lose weight. Particularly the longer and deeper the deficit the easier it is to deceive yourself. You can bypass this problem in approximately two ways. One, is to exercise extreme levels of detail and self-corrective feedback in tracking. The other is to suppress appetite, which is the obvious mechanism by which GLP1s and gastric work.
MollieTheMare
7d ago
MollieTheMare
7d ago
If you are getting a decent bolus of protein at each meal 1g/kg is not hard to get to and not 'a lot', especially while bulking. Especially if you at not vegetarian/vegan. One pound of chicken thighs is ~110g of protein. If you are lifting adult male and weigh 110 kg (243 lbs), eating a quarter pound of meat at four sittings shouldn't be that hard to do. With 3-4 feedings a day having some evidence for being more effective than one giant meal. It's tough to imagine a muscular 243 lb male that would have a hard time eating a quarter pounder honestly.
It's not even that expensive, about $2 a day against a real median personal income of about $115 per day in the US.
If prepping meat is too annoying, protein powders are supper cheap. Whey being the most common, mixing well, and with all sorts of flavors. Plenty of slower digesting and vegan options too, if that's what you're into.
MollieTheMare
7d ago
Anyone want to speculate on the following:
- Who will win the Navy Next Generation Air Dominance F/A-XX program award?
- Why is the Navy NGAD program pronounced NJAD?
- Who's idea was it to name both the Air Force and Navy programs NGAD, despite being separate programs?
- Will the plane be designated F/A-45 to go with the F-47? Surely unrelated to any other 45th and 47th.
My guesses:
Northrop Grumman, It would be crazy to put all our eggs in the Boeing basket at this point. My had cannon is that Air force doctrine is that GIF is pronounced with a hard g, while the Navy pronounces it with a j. Seems like it might be vestigial from DARPA, apparently there was never a meeting where everyone sat down and agreed the situation was ridiculous. I'll make a book at even odds for bets of any size of worthless, fake, imaginary, and untracked internet points.
MollieTheMare
10d ago
I don't think it even needs a new rule, clearly violates:
- Keep to a single account.
- Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
as well as meta rule
- Don't be egregiously obnoxious
Maybe top level comments requiring some account age/karma for posting would help though.
I assume the mods would have already banned the person if there was an easy way. Did @2rafa recognize the style, or is top-level post deleter using a consistent block of IPs or set of IPs known to be used by a single VPN provider? I suppose someone could make some sort of bot that auto-replies with the original post in the case OP deletes the post in bad faith. Maybe selectively browser fingerprinting new accounts from suspect IPs?
I guess one advantage that ROK has over Japan is the small chance of reabsorbing the DPRK. In a sort of German reunification absorption of the GDR into the FRG. This is all conditional on them managing to avoid total economic and social collapse for a few decades though.
Even if there are only 10 South Koreans left, maybe they can send the 20 million North Koreans to reeducation camps consisting of archival K-drama and K-pop to reincarnate the culture.
MollieTheMare
11d ago
I just had a conversation with someone last week about this video. I wondered at the time why they were focusing on South Korea and not Japan. It does seem strange the video says it's unprecedented and only make the most passing mention that Japan is arguably ahead on the demographic curve.
From the population pyramids, seems like if you align babyboomlet generations, 2025 Korea is roughly at the same place as 2007 Japan. Perhaps the remarkable thing is Japan managed to stabilize the base of the pyramid for a few cohorts. Seems like now Korea is facing a demographic cliff while Japan is only facing a demographic decline. With 1.2% vs 1.6% of population in the most recent cohorts. Does anyone have some color on why Japans population decline slowed and Koreas did not? Is anyone more familiar with the cultures willing to confirm or deny my impression that the South Koreans seem to be more willing to embrace automation. Maybe that can help fend of declines in raw GDP for a few more years?
MollieTheMare
11d ago
Or maybe :
⊞ Win + P
Should pop up a menu on every screen to select projector settings.
MollieTheMare
11d ago
You couldn't do it the way the germanwings guy did it but the SilkAir way would still work.
Was there ever confirmation on how the SilkAir guy did it? I thought he managed to pull the CVR breaker at some point, but the NTSB thought that it was most likely he found some excuse/waited for the FO to leave the flight deck.
It looked to me like all of the incidents on regularly scheduled passenger service since 1997 allow for at least the possibility there were not two people on the flight deck. As I mentioned below, this is not currently allowed in the US. I guess for the 1994 Royal Air Maroc Flight 630 the co-pilot wasn't able to successfully intervene, and in JAL Flight 350 the intervention did not totally prevent the loss of life.
Still seems like the effect of the door is marginal compared to the other measures that have since been taken to limit the risk.
MollieTheMare
12d ago
There's a drawback in the whole "pilot suicide" issue, but pilot suicides are a lot less bad than ramming attacks and are in some ways easier to stop.
This doesn't even seem to be that big of a problem in the US. The largest differences from the Germanwings flight being:
- There are always two people on the flight deck now. Even when one pilot has to take a relief break a flight attendant steps onto the flight deck. Even if the FA has no idea what is going on, the added sense of shame from committing the act in front of another person is a strong deterrent. I also assume the FA would at least notice when the plane starts calling out "Terrain terrain. Pull-up Pull-up."
- Roughly (1,000 + 500) + 1,000 flight hours to fly a 737 or A320 size aircraft. Through a combination of rATP, ATP, and scope clause/regional captain restrictions. There would have been substantially more time to detect the Germanwings pilot unfitness with US airline levels of flight hour requirements. He only had 630 hours at the time. This would barely be enough to fly a clapped out Cessna 172 on pipeline patrol in the US.
- The FAA making it practically impossible to hold a first class medical after a severe depressive episode like the Germanwings pilot had. There's some argument for allowing pilots with minor problems to seek help, but not everyone is suited to every job. You've got to draw a line somewhere.
MollieTheMare
13d ago
I do generally think bicycling is superior to running as a form of cardio for weight loss. Most people who are overweight are also not good enough runners to minimize the impact or avoid repetitive stress injuries.
For serious road cycling there is also a social aspect that bicycling has over other forms of cardio. It's possible to ride with a group that will push you, but by utilizing the aerodynamic draft sucking doesn't hold up the group. You have to be much more closely match to keep pace running. You can also hang out in a peloton where you are relatively strong and replace some of the idle chat you would do in a bar. For what I assume are work schedule reasons, fast group rides are often at dinner time. If you get sufficiently thrashed, it's possible to just be too tiered to cook and eat a proper dinner after a ride. From personal experience, replacing dinner with a 2-3 hour group ride and a protein bar 4-5 times a week is good for like 4 lbs/week. Probably not optimal for health, sustainability, or performance though.
MollieTheMare
20d ago
Ah, I'm not OP. I've tried O3 High, O1 Pro, and QwQ. For the paper they have the prompts and grading scheme on the corresponding github. USAMO questions are hard enough you definitely need some expertise to grade them accurately. I'm far from being capable of judging them accurately.
Very qualitatively, the current crop of LLMs impresses me with the huge breadth of topics they can talk about. But "talking" to them does not give the impression they are better at reasoning than anyone I know who has scored >50% on USMAO, IMO, or the Putnam.
MollieTheMare
20d ago
The quote the full model names in appendix A.1, but it's really such a short paper that it's worth at least scrolling through before discussing.
- O3-MINI (HIGH)
- O1-PRO (HIGH)
- DEEPSEEK R1
- QWQ-32B
- GEMINI-2.0-FLASH-THINKING-EXP
- CLAUDE-3.7-SONNET-THINKING
While surprisingly poor performing, it's not entirely out of line with my own experience experimenting with this class of models. They do seem to hallucinate at a very high rate for problems requiring subtle but extremely tight reasoning.
MollieTheMare
28d ago
I'd consider adding some basic cardio like a daily 30 minutes walk if you aren't getting that in already.
Depending on how your schedule works out, breaking it up into several short sessions might even be better for you.
For big four lifting there are basic resources like the book 'Starting Strength' which contains beginner routines.
To supplement that I would add The Barbell Prescription: Strength Training for Life After 40. It's a bit like Practical Programing, but for the 40+ crowd. I would also recommend some type pulling, probably chins or pull-ups, to make it a big five.
MollieTheMare
1mo ago
Nobody benefits personally from running fair courts, or from building roads.
Do you mean that people do benefit personally from having fair courts and roads? The key question to if something should be state funded is not "is it beneficial," to be funded by tax dollars something should be a public good, as in non-excludable and non-rivalrous. Generaly the courts are supposed to be designed this way. Roads on the other-had depend on the type of road. Roads can be excludable, see toll roads. Probably most interstate and express roads should be paid by user fees that full capture the externalities of those roads. So some set of roads are both beneficial and monetizable. They can "make doallars."
Knowledge as derived from fundamental research can be non-excludable and non-rivalrous, but some not-insubstantial fraction of useful knowledge is excludable.
This can be done in two ways. First, you can patent some knowledge. Much of the development of GLP-1 agonists from Gila monster venom was funded by Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Eli Lilly, etc. If the drug companies are going to be granted a monopoly on the beneficial results of this type of research they ought to pay for all of this class of research. It makes no sense for the tax payer to pay for the research and then grant a pharmaceutical company the exclusive rights to capture all the benefits of the research.
Second, you can keep knowledge as a trade secret. If @Jesweez research actually has "...direct relevance for fire risk forecasting..." then the actuarial teams at the insurance companies should be willing to pay him for it. If it's not something that can actually be incorporated into a risk model then it does not actually have "direct relevance," it has some sort of hypothetical indirect potential relevance. Alternatively, if it can actually give you an edge understanding where drought is affecting most, you should be able to sell it to a hedge fund trading agricultural futures. Or an industry consortium or publication in the vein of the some sort of new Old Farmer's Almanac.
There is probably some small set of research that is useful, novel, can't be patented, and can't be sold as a proprietary model. It is a vanishingly small fraction of total federal research funding though.
MollieTheMare
1mo ago
I suppose given that you are in the UK right now, I'll accept NATO nomenclature for caliber. There is something decidedly transatlantic about using millimeter based measurements to specify caliber over US customary units though.
I'll have to insist on you describing all charge sizes in the mass unit of grains before naturalizing to the US. Of course actually referring to the volume of a some particular brand of dipper and powder you used and not the actual mass.
I fucking love guns, I want to turn a boar into pink mist with .50 bmg
I know you're being hyperbolic, but if you want to pass for being fully assimilated into American gun culture you have to be more nuanced than this. Full auto and .50 BMG are the types of things you do as a rental on a weekend to Nevada. You use them to obliterate a junk car or washing machine. Even with physician money it's just to impractical to do all the time. You'll almost never see this kind of thing at a normal range in the US.
More Platonicly American methods of hunting hogs:
- Still hunting with a lever action rifle chambered in something like a .44 Remington Magnum
- Night hunting with night vision optics on an AR platform, .223 Remington
- Hunting from a helicopter with "Fortunate Son" playing in the background, probably .223 Remington again
I don't consider hog hunting to be the most American form of hunting though. For me the form of hunting that is most characteristic of the American ethos is elk hunting. Probably with something like a .300 Winchester Magnum or one of the other big 30's.
MollieTheMare
1mo ago
The concrete-and-steel casks themselves
Shouldn't these casks also have negative value, at least he occupied ones? Even if you empty them, presumably the cask has been neutron activated and would have to be disposed of as low-level waste. Or is the value positive, because if you transfer the waste out you could reuse the cask for new waste?
MollieTheMare
1mo ago
I believe the "standard" practice in this situation is to use a movable chicken coup called a chicken tractor. You move the tractor from spot to spot in the yard as the chickens exhaust the forage the tractor is over. Feed would still likely be needed, though less. This is what @orthoxerox was referencing with the need for a movable enclosure.
The eggs may not count as "free range" if the chickens are raised this way, but it's arguably more humane than exposing them to predation. Chickens are a type of roosting fowl and tend to exhibit less stress if they have a place to safely roost at all times. As @SteveAgain mentioned modern chickens were bred from birds that can fly into tree tops to roost, it seems this instinct isn't completely gone with modern breeds, they just can't make it to tree tops.
MollieTheMare
2mo ago
I'm pretty sure if you do a statistical analysis of the primary themes of Taylor Swift singles discography the majority are not breakup songs. But she has produced a huge amount of stuff that gets played on Hot 100 type radio/streaming, so it's easy to forget some. For example "I Knew You Were Trouble" and "All Too Well" are explicitly breakup songs about "bad" former lovers. They both got substantial air play and feature in the Eras Tour set-list. The set-list is a bit over three hours so the statement:
you'll usually hear one within the hour
is probably true. Assuming the set list is representative of what gets played on a all Taylor all the time stream, and I have forgotten at least one of her breakup songs.
MollieTheMare
2mo ago
Anyone with even moderately sound epistemics on the issue should know that, while sexual assault is very common and supposedly only 5% of accusations are false (assuming that statistic I've heard thrown around is even true), a women who presents like King does is not >95% likely to be telling the truth.
I did do some digging on this in the Mattress Girl era.
The low single digit "false report" number (3-8%) is using a strict definition of false report. In this definition only police reports that have substantial evidence to show they are false are counted. It only includes reports that are wholly fabricated, e.g. someone accuses another that was not even in the same state at the time. The studies finding very low numbers exclude unsubstantiated accusations, as well as sometimes excluding partial recantations and baseless accusations. Respectively defined as cases where there is insufficient evidence to show a crime occurred, a case where the criminal aspect of the incident is recanted but material aspects of the case did occur, and cases where the reporter views the incident as assault but does not meet the legal definition of a crime. So assuming a police report was actually filed in this case, it would probably fall into the partial recantation category and would not "count" in the most strict measurements of false report.
The most extreme 3% is a lower bound on the prevalence of false police reports. It says nothing about the true number, the upper bound, or the lower bound on all accusations. Police reports making up only a fraction of total assault accusations. The "discredited" 40+% numbers you might see quoted in parts of the internet use the detectives opinion on the case. The detectives opinion does not match the strict definition of false report, so these conflicting numbers are typically excluded form meta and review papers. Those papers are (in some sense) right to say the methodology of the 40+% studies are flawed. My main objection is that they are flawed in precisely the same way as the 3% papers. You do not have a ground truth to base your estimate on. If you had some easy high certainty method of determining if a report was true or false—there wouldn't be any fear of a false accusations and there wouldn't be any fear of not being believed as a victim.
Reserving commentary on the phraseology of the original question.
Calculating the dates for Easter is a sort of interesting question. Assuming Gregorian conventions. For any date between March 28 and April 20 inclusive the frequency is just over 3%. For April 20th the most recent occurrences have been: 1919, 1924, 1930, 2003, 2014, and 2025 with the next in 2087.
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