CanofWorms
3d ago
He clearly didn't play high school sports or you would realize very quickly the men's team would steamroll the women's team in any sport.
CanofWorms
4d ago
What was the buy-in/prize?
CanofWorms
4d ago
On number 1, I don't think less immigration will have anything to do with LA home prices. Illegal immigrants (and most legal immigrants for that matter) are not purchasing multimillion dollar homes in Los Angeles.
On number 2, I do think house prices are still adjusting to higher interest rates and that means prices still have further to fall. The problem is this doesn't apply to all geographies; California in particular is its own fucked-up brand of real estate. Rent control, the continuation of Prop 13, and horrendous inability to build new housing in CA skew the market so badly, higher or lower interest rates seem almost a non-factor. Now with that said, if you think a recession is likely in the next few years, which I think is a real possibility, I would expect mortgage rates to fall as the fed cuts rates. So while you may not see home prices fall, you can end up with a 4 or 5% mortgage rate instead of a 6 or 7% one.
My prediction: home prices in CA stay flat or fall very slightly. Buyers are priced out due to price leaving a smaller pool of buyers able to afford homes. However, the demand for LA real estate is so strong, even this limited pool of buyers will keep prices propped up. That, coupled with the low tax rates caused by Prop 13 (and the downstream effect of homeowner's not needing to sell due to low tax rates and thus limiting the supply) keeps prices steady. I do think tariffs and the chaos of the Trump admin may cause economic damage leading to rate cuts, so you may be able to snag a cheaper mortgage.
But who knows. California real estate is insane and we're living in a wild political time. If you have the money today, I wouldn't necessarily try to time the market. Just buy the house you can afford in the area you want to live in. Or rent. Renting in CA is an awesome deal compared to anywhere else in the US.
CanofWorms
1mo ago
These aren't contradictions to me. All things considered, DOGE is cutting peanuts from the federal budget and is unlikely to make even a small dent in the annual deficit. They big leagues don't start until they start cutting Social Security, Medicare, and the defense budget.
At the same time, these cuts may end up being fairly devastating. I don't know that they will be devastating enough to send us into a recession, but they may really gum up the works for people who truly rely on government services. The other thing is with all these cuts to the IRS, it seems likely to me that tax receipts will be much lower this year than in years past, thus contributing even more to the deficit.
CanofWorms
1mo ago
I wouldn't super worry about getting fat if you trend towards thin. I've also been off and on SSRIs for a decade and never had any weight gain.
CanofWorms
1mo ago
I have read the Dark Tower series. The first four books of the Dark Tower are awesome. Book 4, Wizard and Glass is actually my favorite Stephen King book. After book 4 though, things really fell off a cliff. SK was seriously injured in a car collision in 1999 and it feels like him coming face to face with his own mortality caused him to race to finish the series. He pushed out books 5, 6, and 7 in the span of like three years after it took him 20 years to release the first 4.
I'll never not recommend Stephen King, regardless of the book, but I'm not the biggest fan of how The Dark Tower ended up. The good news is that you can plow through those books in a couple months or less.
CanofWorms
1mo ago
Different Seasons is one of King's best. If someone asked me which Stephen King book they should start with to get an idea of his style, I would recommend this one or Misery.
CanofWorms
1mo ago
Interesting way of looking at it. Now with that said, don’t you think the president of Haiti or some other third world country would be an even more lethal job?
CanofWorms
1mo ago
Fred Trump (Donald's father) live to 93 and Mary Trump (Donald's mother) lived to 88. Going back through the Trump family tree, many of his ancestors had higher than average lifespans. Considering Donald doesn't drink or smoke and that he walks and moves around very regularly, I find it highly doubtful that he kicks the bucket before his term is up.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
As a white man of Irish descent (in other words, very very white), growing up, I always liked darker girls more than whiter/paler girls. This was true as early on as elementary school when I was most attracted to a girl of latina descent. Even as I got older, I always felt more attracted to latina or middle eastern looking women, women who had a caramel skin, large dark eyes, and a curvy/muscular body. Don't get me wrong, I've dated and been with other types of women, but from a purely physical standpoint, it feels like my white freckly pasty skinny Irish genes are attracted to sunkissed tan curvy women.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Does anyone know how to donate funds directly to Haitian citizens? I've been reading about all of the graft and waste for various charities donating to Haiti, and I literally just want to send individuals money. It wouldn't be much, maybe $200 a month, but I feel like even that small amount could help a family or two. Has anyone ever looked into sending money directly people in need?
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Gary Gilmore too. Subject of the (long-winded and overcooked) book The Executioner's Song.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Cool. I can’t feel jealous of your salary now because computer science and machine learning is something I would never be able to do!
CanofWorms
3mo ago
What is your graduate degree in if you don't mind me asking?
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Awesome. Appreciate the rec. I'll check it out.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Grid storage may not be economical without subsidies, but a ton of it is nevertheless being built in California and Texas.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Interesting take. As a person who could also be described as clinically depressed and neurotic, I actually don't mind this part of his personality leaking into his writing. I don't mind depression or neuroticism leaking into anyone's writing so long as the writing is still entertaining or amusing. It's when you have the dull self-pitying storytelling that I get impatient and bored.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Have you ever read A Supposedly Fun Thing I'd Never Do Again? It's vintage David Foster Wallace and is quite good.
https://harpers.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/HarpersMagazine-1996-01-0007859.pdf
CanofWorms
3mo ago
Not that I know of, but I thought there was a lot more overlap between the Motte and Astral Codex Ten than there is. I don't read much of Scott's stuff myself, but he seems to have a much larger following than The Motte does.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
I don’t have answers to most of your questions, but it’s possible he did not have a car and couldn’t use the drive thru. My guess for why he still had the gun/silencer was he wanted to keep them as a trophy. Either way, very stupid move on what was otherwise a nearly flawless assassination.
CanofWorms
3mo ago
I went to an in-person ACX meetup for the first time today. I didn't find it too awkward and actually really enjoyed the conversation. I was surprised that many of the attendees had either never heard of The Motte or only had a very passing familiarity with it.
CanofWorms
4mo ago
What’s an eight sleep mattress?
CanofWorms
4mo ago
Go on Spotify and look up beginning singing lessons and practice them in the car. 20 minutes a day and I promise you, you will see improvement.
Next step up is taking a singing class. You can usually find a 8 week program for around $300-400 and it’s a fun way to get out of the house and sing with a group.
Good luck.
CanofWorms
4mo ago
It’s not reconcilable with what happened in 2020. And that is because there was no election fraud. Those who believe there was have been duped.
Thanks for complaining. I am exposed to way too any influencers and beautiful people online having the time of their lives getting paid to take photos of themselves, spend money, and be hot. Granted much of this is as fake as the porn industry, but it's hard to remember than when you're sitting in a cubicle working on Excel spreadsheets.
I am an engineering manager working for a renewable energy construction company and I have utter dread every time I go into the office. COVID was actually a godsend for me as it changed my working pattern from being 8AM to 5PM every day in office (with a horrendous commute) to 2 or three days in the office per week and no one checking what time I show up. It is so much more tolerable being able to work from home the majority of the time. But those days in the office, I experience so much anxiety and negative feelings it's almost physically painful. It's not so much that I dislike the work (though I do), but the fact I'm held in that office with boring-ass engineers sitting behind a computer all day long. Even typing this out increases my heart rate.
Anyway, you have my solidarity.
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