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Worse than alienating swifties it could potentially alienate Swift herself. While I get the sense that the value of an individual celebrity endorsement is near zero, I believe that the impression that all socially desirable people support the Democrats is probably worth a great deal (but not enough to carry an election on its own of course). I believe that left to her own devices Swift would likely come around to supporting conservatives in time. She's rich, she's white, she's heterosexual, she has a white meathead boyfriend.

Look at Lana del Rey, in 2016 she was a witch putting a hex on Trump. In 2024 she married an obvious Trump supporting, camo wearing boat guide from Louisiana. Look at her Instagram now, she has made no political posts and all the comments are from people berating her and assuming that her silence tacitly implies support for Trump. Swift will come around too, just give her time and don't be too mean.

There are degrees of "Ship of Theseus-ing".

  • The original version: Hundreds of pieces are replaced one by one over many years, with physical continuity above 99 percent at each replacement

  • The grandfather's-ax version: Just two or three pieces are replaced one at a time, with physical continuity of only one-half or two-thirds at each replacement

  • This Japanese version: The entire edifice is destroyed and remade all at once, with no physical continuity at all

Thanks for doing your part to fight dysgenesis.

Yesterday, I was indirectly reminded of an old classmate I had in 5th through 7th grade. Out of idle curiosity, I looked him up and found that he had died of a fentanyl overdose last year.

I hadn't really thought of him for decades, and we weren't all that close back then, so it didn't hit me particularly hard, but it did shock me a bit, since he didn't really seem the type. He was from a high-SES family, both parents being archaeologists, and in the same gifted classes as I was. His best friend from back then is an attorney now.

I wonder how people's lives go off the rails like this, even when they seem to have everything going for them.

I agree that after having the first one, things get easier and scale better, two kids don't require literally twice the time and money as the first, especially when you've moved your life around to adjust.

I doubt the SAHM thing will be an option, but there are some options to cut down working hours even as a doctor (going from 48 hours a week to what most professions consider as standard at 40 hours).

It scales a bit. After reasonable success with the first one, the 2nd was different but less anxiety producing. The 3rd and 4th even less so.

We had been DINK for some time. After the 2nd there was a move so my wife could be a SAHM. I don't think we'd have 4 if we were still both working in demanding careers shuttleing the kids between creche / daycare and school etc.

It's not great, but the headline is OK, and that's usually where 90% of the humor is in these articles anyways.

I think the BOJ has been far more concerned with deflation than inflation over the last several decades. And it's not that people don't trust the currency, it's that the BOJ prefers a gradual, managed decline that preserves pensions and lifelong employment to any sort of economic dynamism, so a weak yen is fine to them as long as the largest voting blocs ("old people" and "very old people") can still push paper around for a mediocre wage/receive their pensions and can afford to buy rice, tofu, vegetables, and cigarettes.

How well has smearing Rogan worked? Not well at all, it seems. Singers tend not to be taken as seriously as Rogan, but she is best ignored.

With regards to Ship of Theseusing buildings, I'm definitely on team Japan. Who cares if the actual wood is new? Fetishising the materials themselves leads to craziness like this.

From what I recall of this issue, male "milk" isn't even really milk, is it? Does it have any caloric value? What is the actual benefit of men engaging in this behavior? It seems to me to be pretty obviously fetishistic, and if I were the founder of the company and on the council, I would resign too if I had to pretend it isn't fetishistic and actually worth talking about.

You're the one that said the schools are "secretly transitioning" kids, like the kid wasn't involved in the process.

Surely it's obvious to you that he meant secret from the parents? It's clearly logically impossible to transition someone secretly from them themselves.

Do you think Jones would have escaped the huge damages if he claimed that, I suppose, his bipolar disorder made him do it? I don't know if he's ever been diagnosed with anything like that, but there also seems to be to be at least a vibe that those sorts of protections don't apply to red tribers like Jones, but do to the in-group sometimes.

Is this legal? At this point it's not an "auction" anymore but a free handing over of the property to whatever grift the trustee desires.

The trustee has an obligation to protect the interests of the debtor and the creditors. Usually this means accepting the highest bid, but that's not always the case. Since some of the plaintiffs were willing to share the proceeds of the sale with other creditors, who would have otherwise gotten less, this is the deal that provides the most benefit to the creditors. The debtor's interest isn't really in play here, since there's no chance the money raised in the asset sale will exceed the total debt. The trustee has discretion in the matter, and the only way a court would force the sale to another bidder is if there was clear abuse of this discretion.

I'd argue the situation of the white precariat class started eroding many years before 2008 but their problems were papered over by cheap credit and these trends remained unseen under the surface while public attention focused on the Bush Admin's wars and the usual culture war issues. I recall that Steve Sailer observed the data and concluded that negative trends in white life expectancy started around 2002.

FWIW, the last 1-2 years has been a nightmare of overtourism. I've been living and traveling here for over a decade and it's never been this bad in Tokyo.

My siblings have been insisting on a Japan trip and I've been reluctant because of this

Don't worry, the yen is probably permanently ruined so it'll stay cheap.

I think the risk/concern here is that it eventually enters an inflationary spiral like Argentina/Turkey. It doesn't seem likely, but if people on the inside don't trust the currency...

Yeah somewhere in-between one of the first and second groups of places you mentioned. I've just checked the data and it's actually around the 70th percentile for income for inner London, 90th percentile for London as a whole.

Different parts of London can be a bubble of course but I feel relatively confident talking about the demographics of the arrivals- I suspect many of them are living in zones 2-5 in North West as I see them on the tube and around baker street.

People smarter and better paid than I have speculated on the global, secular decrease in TFR and there's no single conclusive answer I'm aware of.

That being said, I personally lean towards a decrease in community and family support being major issues. Having siblings and parents nearby to help with looking after kids is a big help. Add in delayed child rearing (often due to lengthy higher education eating up potential fertile years) and people, like me, being concerned about how they're going to handle the time costs (or make enough money that they can trade it for other people's time). And to a degree, the heightened expectations and demand to micromanage worsen things as you contemplate, you can't just kick kids out till sundown to make their own entertainment these days in many places.

I'm confident I can bite the bullet if need be and have kids despite how daunting a prospect it seems, but it's looking like a damn hard thing to pull off.

The site ate my post but I don't agree with your last paragraph. I don't think was a canary for anything, the period 90-08 was a great time for white boys. The bottom only fell out for the white precariat in the GFC and things didn't start shifting culturally until like 2010-2012.

Was Nu-metal worse than other comparable music scenes? I have no idea but it seems to me that it's a good target to shit on (and disregard base rates) because it was so dorky, kind of like Juggalos.

I bet the word mutilation isn't in there even once.

What on earth is this meant to prove? "In their official communications, the IDF have never referred to their military operation in Gaza as a 'genocide': ergo, it can't possibly be one". Would you expect anyone in the world to be persuaded by such a facile argument?

FWIW, the last 1-2 years has been a nightmare of overtourism. I've been living and traveling here for over a decade and it's never been this bad in Tokyo. So maybe visit somewhere else and come back after the boom is over. Don't worry, the yen is probably permanently ruined so it'll stay cheap.

https://archive.is/TrSMG

The trans youth issue bothers me. Girls sports, underage irreversible surgeries, and marketing to kids all get under my skin. Adults don’t really bother me

I think it’s relevant in the same sense most Cathedral media is important — it’s to inform you of what the establishment wants you to believe. And thus if you’re trying to outwardly fit in so you can stay out of the Eye of Sauron, knowing what the establishment thinks and wants outward compliance with is useful.

I think the lack of big “everyone must watch this” stuff is not the sign of a dying twitch. It’s the complete domination of the thought life. Keep in mind that the modern HR departments and trust/safety systems are enforcement mechanisms and because of the way that most of us are locked into a single career path dependent on other people for employment we have an informal Social Credit system. If you run afoul of the stuff HR enforces, you can get black listed essentially. So you no longer need to create great, compelling propaganda about stuff you’re supposed to think because those who question will be unjobbed as a cautionary tale for others. I suspect there are a lot of dissidents in offices who are secretly heretics but know better than to say so publicly.

It’s been a truism for decades that coming out as a conservative is more of a risk than coming out as gay. No one gets fired for being too gay. You can be too conservative.

But maybe what's actually funny is your troll act?

Okay fair enough. I will say for the record that I am a new poster (jumped in for the discussion after election day as you noted) but have lurked reading every so often for at least a few months so I'm not unfamiliar with the forum as a whole.

I somewhat disagree with the characterization of my behaviour as 'just asking questions', but I understand how it appears that way. I do have a habit of questioning people to poke at underlying disagreements, and I can acknowledge that sometimes I do this too much or with somewhat inflammatory rhetoric, but it is usually with a goal relevant to the discussion in mind.

In this particular case, the questions regarding moderation were genuine. If there's something in the forum's history thats relevant to my moderation I wanted to know it. I did receive a message from another poster yesterday, that in hindsight, makes me think they also suspected me of being a specific different user evading a ban.

I want to stress again at the end here that my picking apart of this moderation may come across as being in bad faith, but I am genuinely attempting to understand the rules of engagement and how I would have to change my rhetoric in order to consistently participate. If I engaged less now, I might misunderstand something else down the road. The impression I get is that my familiarity with the forum is suspicious and also my asking questions is suspicious, but I felt that not asking questions would make it more likely that I was banned in the future for a reason I did not fully understand.

In any case, I will endeavour to make future posts acceptable.