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I am a bit amazed by Italians and French, there, with crime rates 4.75 and 5.91 times the German citizens ones.

From a US perspective, we are all close neighbors, it would be like if people from Utah committed crimes in California at five times the rate of the natives.

If you tracked interstate migration the same way each country in the EU tracks their migration, patterns like these might very well show up, though personally I'd be more suspicious of Californians rather than the Utahns.

As for the French, they have their own high-crime minorities, fully equipped with French passports, thanks to their colonial past. I can't tell you what is the deal with Italians, though.

Heck, they are more over-represented than Russians.

Russians have a long way to travel, and are not part of the Schengen Zone, so that's hardly surprising.

A general caveat with police statistics is that they generally tell you about the activities of the police, not the criminals.

I'd be more than happy to limit the data to crimes with incentive to report, like murder, assault, rape, etc. I even remember some internet autist going over the German crime by nationality stats. I don't know if that's something they used to publish but stopped, or he had to FOIA them to get it, but if you click on the pdf from my other comment you can see they present the numbers on each type of crime, as well as on suspects by nationality, so they very clearly do have the data on the activities of criminals, they just choose not to aggregate them in a way that would be useful to this conversation (most likely deliberately, for the exact same reason they haven't published the full report since 2020).

Another caveat is that while offenses against the foreigners' law (which Germans can mostly not commit) are excluded, that law might still be the initial reason for investigation of non-EU nationals.

  1. And this is why I came out against "uh, source?" and "data would be what we use to see if that intuition is correct or not" in my other conversation with Jesweez, and why I think Rationalist movement is either a complete failure, or a deliberate effort to sabotage sense-making. You can play these sorts of games forever, and no one who insisted that the data showing immigrants are less criminal than American citizens should be taken as-is, will ever show up here to criticize you for looking for an out in the unpublished parts of the data.
  2. Yes, it could be that the police is finding other crime while investigating illegal immigration, but what you've left out is that it could also be the opposite - the police doing their best to turn a blind eye to illegal immigration, but inevitably running into it in the process of investigating violent crime. Which leads me to:
  3. I'm not saying things are quite as bad as the opposite side of the spectrum I outline above, but if you think Germany, or any other country in the EU, is in crack-down mode against illegal immigration, you're posting from a parallel universe.

Oh, and the correct metric to measure criminality would be average conviction length per person.

Nah. I'll take "convicts" over "suspects", but the length of conviction is a silly metric, if you know what they've been convicted of. Especially given certain European judges proclivity to let gang-rapists off with a slap on the wrist.

It seems to me that a question we ought asking is "is Trump really lying?". Not in the sense of whether a given statement is false? so much as in the sense of is he really deceiving any one or otherwise behaving dishonestly?

I'm hardly the first person to make this observation but it seems to me that Trump "lies" the way a used car salesman "lies". Sure, he'll tell you that Nissan Altima with bald tires at the back of the lot is a good deal, the best deal even, the sort of deal he wouldn't give his own mother, but if pressed he'll admit that its kind of a shitbox and knock 10 - 20% off the price. Normal people who interact with other normal people on a regular basis get this, they even expect it. After all the salesman's job is to sell things and few working class persons are going to begrudge another working class person for doing thier job.

In contrast a lot of what Trump's opponents seem to do is not "lying" directly in the sense of speaking falshoods so much as they are setting out with a specific intention to push a specific narrative and things like lying through omission, false pretenses, and spreading rumors/hearsay are just tools in the tool box.

There seems to be this belief that so long as you are never actually caught in an outright lie you are by definition a good and honest person. If someone is decieved by your intentional misrepresenting of a fact or lie of omission the culpability is not on you for trying to decieve them, its on them for not being being savvy enough to see through your deception.

I think that what we are seeing now is the downstream effects of this attitude. You see politics is by it's nature a multiple itteration game. Unless your plan is to litteraly exterminate everyone and anyone who might disagree with your policy decisions (and to be fair, a number of regimes have actually tried) you're gonna have to cut a second deal with someone at some point and when you do its only natural that they will factor how the first deal played out into thier calculus.

This is the bit that I think Todd and the wider media/managerial class have failed to recognize or othwerwise factor into thier thinking is that a lot of regular people have come to recognize that they got manipulated and are now on guard against it and rather than solving the (alleged) problem all the talk about how normal people are stupid, easy to manipulate, and need to be saved from themselves for democracy's sake is exacerbating it.

As Instapundit would say, they have chosen the form of thier destructor. For the Ghostbusters it was a marshmallow kaiju, for the beltway it was a reality tv star.

Let me ask you the question others have asked only implicitly: was there a woman in the past, whether your affection was required or unrequited, who you felt was truly interesting, truly desirable? It’s not about her, and you make that clear enough. But it might be about the idea of her.

Aluminum is the fourth most conducive metal

It depends on how you're counting it. Resistivity is usually measured by dimensions, and aluminium's #4 by that measure, but aluminium is far less dense than copper/silver/gold, so if your limiting factor is weight (often the case) aluminium is the best.

But merely wrapping something in aluminum foil would leave small gaps that I think would defeat the shield.

There's leakage, yes. But everything I've read suggests that you can achieve very high reduction with enough layers, and "very high" suffices (one only needs to bring the voltage inside below that needed to destroy the device, after all - it doesn't have to be brought to zero).

I got one from a guy who claims he was Special Forces. Said a bunch of the SEALs that tagged along to get Marcus Luttrell fucked up their hands because they had to fast rope double the distance they were used to and did it with the wrong gloves, and had to get evaked out.

I'm already a pretty infrequent visitor, but will certainly reduce that to near zero if/when they pull the plug -- I imagine they are aware of the number of such users, but may not care.

I agree. That's exactly the type of book that JTarrou should write.

Yeah, if anything the average wood quality was better back then because we hadn't run out of old-growth forests yet. It's really obvious when you compare antique furniture to most modern stuff.

“Might work” only in the limited scope that reply chain was talking about. There are innumerable reasons for private citizens to remain armed, as you’ve enumerated with excellence.

Yes, and in reality fifties houses were below the standard most working class Americans expect today, both in terms of being tiny square footage single floor houses and because they lacked air conditioning and were extremely flimsy even by the standards of modern US single family housing.

In another reality, there's a ton of them in my neighborhood being occupied by working-class to upper-upper-middle class Americans. Many now have had air conditioning added, but flimsy? They're made of wood, not ticky-tacky.

Ah, I believe you're right that it was around that time. Thanks for re-unbanning him.

you have a catch, friendo

my only caution is, as a long distance thing you kind of still are on your best behavior when you're around each other and aren't really experiencing what the other is actually like on an every day basis

so, I might not consider engagement until you've spent 6 months together in the same place

Sure, that's what allying with people you disagree with means. It doesn't mean he has all of a sudden become a Democrat, after 40 some years. I think it's kind of odd that people talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome, but don't seem to want to see that it affected some Republicans too.

If he supports Democrats to win elections and has switched to Democrat positions, how is he not a Democrat?

The union worker is interested in his wages, which are dependent on the health of the company, the quality of his coworkers, and the strength of the union's bargaining position. The union boss's wages are often on a different payscale that rewards expanding his unionbase. He eventually no longer has much interest in any individual company his union operates in, and often was drawn from the ideological subclass interested in union advocacy from the start.

Sure but where does the difference in politics come from? Why would Trump appeal less to a union boss than a union worker and vice versa with Harris?

Can you imagine being a Haitian in Haiti?

In 2023, kidnapping jumped 72% from the first quarter of the previous year.[228] Doctors, lawyers, and other wealthy members of society were kidnapped and held for ransom.[229] Many victims were killed when ransom demands were not met, leading those with the means to do so to flee the country, further hampering efforts to pull the country out of the crisis.[229] It is estimated that amidst the crisis up to 20% of qualified medical staff had left Haiti by the end of 2023.[230]

In March 2024, Ariel Henry was prevented by gangs from returning to Haiti, following a visit to Kenya.[231] Henry agreed to resign once a transitional government had been formed. As of that month, nearly half of Haiti's population was living under acute food insecurity, according to the World Food Programme.[25]

I don't think being treated in a dehumanizing manner is anywhere near as bad as what they fled from. They come from literal starvation to a land where there are pets aplenty and delicious wild geese are running around, why not take advantage of the free meat? If there was an endangered elk or buffalo running around Springfield, they'd carve it into steaks too, there's no question about it.

The question isn't about whether racism is an issue, it's about the Springfield community's ability to absorb these people without suffering any deleterious effects. If they assimilate and go to eating packaged precut chicken breast and cheez-wiz, good for them. But you have to prepare for the eventuality that one of them goes 'wait a second, why would I do that when meat is running around for free'?

Certainly possible but I'm hoping it's some weird drink I haven't heard about for me to try next.

Was she? My own recollection is that the Cheney family accepted her and her lesbian partner, and there were hints that Dick personally would have been fine with legalizing same-sex marriage, but as VP he wasn't willing to publicly disagree with his president or his party on the matter. I guess it depends on your definition of bus-under-throwing.

It happens [cw: images of serious injury to face], but the explosion is pretty characteristic and very different from what we've seen from the pager explosions.

Bunnie Huang has a not-implausible analysis of the difficulty. I think he underestimates some parts of it, which I'm not going to go into detail here around, but it's still absolutely plausible that the difficult part was setting up the front business and getting sales.

Polish supertrawlers were the fleets that first exploited the Peanut Hole (the small stretch of the Sea of Okhotsk that was out of Russia's EEZ until 2013 I believe) and were also pretty active in the Donut Hole (the stretch of the Bering Sea outside of the US and Russia's EEZs) until both ended up being closed. It was kind of surprising to learn about it at first because they kinda get smol beanified due to their history but especially in the post-Soviet era they've been a pretty substantial third party presence in international fisheries (Also, as someone currently taking an imperial Russian history class I fw the Time of Troubles reference heavy)

I want sniper school / ranger school / or other selection stories. I collect these like challenge coins.

Also, please include your favorite memory of a SEAL making an ass of themselves, but thinking they were a total badass in the moment.

The beer, maybe?

Yes, and in reality fifties houses were below the standard most working class Americans expect today, both in terms of being tiny square footage single floor houses and because they lacked air conditioning and were extremely flimsy even by the standards of modern US single family housing.

I know this isn’t the main point of your comment, but I’d like to make a practical suggestion. If you find ads that damaging, just mute the TV during commercial breaks. I always do it on the few occasions I watch TV, and I merely find the ads obnoxious, not damaging to my ability to function.