The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
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User ID: 174
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
15hr ago
Neither "Ireland" nor "aristocrat" has the same root as "Aryan" or "Iran".
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
16hr ago
I suppose if we ignore not just Trump I, but also Bush II, Reagan, Nixon, and of course Eisenhower over the whole Suez Crisis.
Hmm, I sense a commonality between those Presidents.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
16hr ago
The big difference is the lack of buildup. There was no effort to sell the war to the public or to the international community.
There was no way Donald Trump could do so. The "public" (meaning the mainstream media) and the "international community" (meaning Euro liberals) could not be convinced by Donald Trump. So he quite rationally did not waste any effort on this unachievable goal. He does seem to have brought the Gulf states into the fold (with the help of a feckless IRGC, granted).
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
16hr ago
SCOTUS remanded this case. I expect to see it back in the high court in a couple of years, after the district court finds that Colorado has a compelling state interest in protecting gay children from deconversion or something.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
16hr ago
Every ethnicity in Iran is light skinned, and the dominant one has an extremely long history of civilization.
The name "Iran" is derived from the same root as "Aryan".
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
17hr ago
When I hear "unserious country" nowadays it's usually someone on the right talking about the U.K. or Germany.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
17hr ago
Isn't there some conservative college, who's name escapes me, that makes a point of not accepting any federal help so they aren't on the hook for Title IX, and all the other federal fuckery, and the Dems are still always looking for ways to force them to run it their way?
There was, Bob Jones University. They lost not just Federal funds but their tax-exempt status, and then knelt at the altar of equality.
Meanwhile, the University of California and others have explicit political tests for their faculty (in some cases also being fig-leaves for RACIAL tests), and that's fine. It's all who/whom and all very tiresome, and if Trump refuses to let them continue doing that he's not breaking any precedent except in aiming that power at the left for a change.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
The Poland thing seems to be fake news. The US made a general request to all the allies for Patriot batteries, and Poland said no -- but Poland only HAS the two, so this was probably expected.
As for the Euros, they probably think the US will give up with Iran in control of the strait and are trying to position themselves to be able to suck up to Iran for oil.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
A quagmire where we set up a long-term occupation force only to reluctantly surrender 20 years later?
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
I prefer "jumped up matrix multipliers" myself.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
21hr ago
It doesn't follow logically any more than yours does. It's an observation -- those who suppress racial IQ are pushing for some sort of preferential treatment for a favored racial group.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
21hr ago
By the same token, anyone who tries to prevent mention of racial IQ is going to be a terrible person who uses the implicit assumption that racial IQs are equal to promote disparate treatment by race.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Your suggestion is US surrender, and it won't happen until January 2027 at the earliest, when the Democratic Congress can force Trump to give up.
In the meantime, it is more likely that any one of the following occurs
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The US takes the islands in the strait and some of the Iranian coastline, and forces the strait open. This could start as early was Friday evening EST
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The US and Israel kill enough IRGC leaders that Second Lieutenant Amir Rezei, highest ranking surviving IRGC leader, is not so fanatic as to be willing to make a deal to survive
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The Iranians, if they are indeed winning as much as you say, manage to put a nuke together and fire it.
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The Paper Lion (Crown Prince) leads an army of diasporans in and takes the place. (OK, maybe this is only exactly as likely as an unforced Trump surrender. Neither one is happening)
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
I worked at Google, and the answer is no.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
No, updating on argument is completely fallacious. This is basically "But isn't it evidence that they're horrible that I could have believed <BAD THING> about them?" And the answer is no.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Nobody's disturbed by the process and if you were to go and find previous cases where a similar process was used and present them to those disturbed by the process, they would claim that was different for some spurious reason, or change the subject. The argument is a soldier and nothing more.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
It's the gift that keeps on giving. No, neither phonographs nor guilt nor syphilis. It's the COVID-19 zoonosis/lab-leak debate. When last we left it*, the rationalists and the establishment had concluded to their own satisfaction that the origin was zoonotic, happening at the Wuhan Seafood Market. The dissidents looked at their evidence and arguments and were convinced... that the other side was trying to pull a fast one. And there it stood, with both sides convinced of their own hypothesis but no smoking gun present.
Today... none of that changes. A paper published in 2022 argued that two successful introductions to humans was more likely than one, and this was evidence for the zoonosis hypothesis. Dissident Michael Weissman has now published a paper showing the earlier paper has a fundamental error, and in fact one successful introduction is more likely. Weissman had earlier responded to Scott Alexander's arguments with the same math error, before official publication.
*Citation not provided.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
But wouldn't it be a more interesting space where left leaning users participate while being held to the same moderation and quality standards so they engage without the usual social shaming dialogue (accusations of bigotry, bad faith, or moral failure)?
You know the story of the Scorpion and the Frog, do you not? Despite the format, it's not one of Aesop's but apparently originated in early 20th Century Russia.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
LOL.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
The US has air superiority. But yes, it would be a big operation. I believe the US certainly has the capability to do it, though.
And if the recent public speculation that the material was moved to Ishafan is true, the stuff is just in intact tunnels covered with soil and not really deeply buried.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
If this goes on longer, the environment lobby should be really happy. There should be quite a significant drop in fossil fuel use globally
Unless China uses a few percent more coal.
Many have already pointed out that the biggest beneficiary of the war so far is Russia where both oil prices are seeing higher prices AND that their sanctions are dropped. At first glance, this should be bad news for Ukraine.
Definitely good for Russia, but I don't think cash is that big a bottleneck for Russia, so only mildly bad news for Ukraine.
Iranian oil also got its sanctions lifted.
Yes. Iranian oil is a double-edged sword; exporting it helps Iran, but also keeps oil prices and supply worries within reason. Also if Iran's oil is cut off, they can retailiae by throwing whatever is remaining at Gulf oil.
But maybe this is exactly what the American people want. Elections will certainly be spicy this midterm year.
For Trump to have this improve GOP chances, he needs to win outright -- new regime in Iran, doesn't matter how much they such as long as they'll play ball with the US and "Death to America" is off the playlist. I give this maybe a 5% chance; there just doesn't seem to be anyone in Iran capable of creating such a regime.
Five weeks ago, a ground war with Iran is unthinkable by the American people. Since then, that opinion has clearly changed.
Has it? Many of the earlier polls excluded special operations troops.
I think America will try to take one or a few islands.
Or possibly all of them.
The Venezuela op was a masterclass. What conditions would allow Trump to declare victory? Would a victory Trump can declare be a good thing for America long term?
The big win would be regime change. No mullahs, no IRGC, no "Death to America". Doesn't matter to the US if it's a military dictatorship, a democracy (LOL) or a restoration of the monarchy (double LOL), as long as they play ball.
Lacking that, the existing regime playing ball. Stop attacking Hormuz, stop supplying the Houthis (Hezbollah and Hamas matter to Israel but not the US), hand over the enriched uranium and allow US inspections.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Yes, all of that seems difficult but something the US can do.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
They don't need to shoot down all of them to carry out an operation. Losses greater than zero are acceptable.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
The US can shoot down drones and ballistic missiles too, at least at the rate Iran can currently fire them.
Well, except "Ireland" and "Aryan".
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