The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
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User ID: 174
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
GAMAAN
It's an Internet poll issued through an anti-censorship provider. Very non-representative. Same for the diaspora. As for footage from Iran... the information environment is terrible, who even knows if it's real?
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
If you blame both, you are excusing the culprit while maintaining a fig-leaf of not doing so.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
No, the navigable channel is quite wide, almost the entire width of the strait. There are narrow shipping lanes in the deepest part which are (usually) maintained for traffic separation purposes, but even fully laden oil tankers can use most of the strait.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
Aside from being a bad example in a horrific and now-overturned Supreme Court decision, the reason yelling "fire" in a crowded theater is bad is that the people who hear the cry do not have the time for deliberation of their next action. The cry convinces them that there is an emergency and they must act to leave immediately.
No such situation existed in Iran. The bombing of their facilities by the US did not cause an emergency for which the reflexive action was to send missiles and drones at uninvolved countries.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
19hr ago
The populace of Iraq didn't mostly refuse to resist the Americans because they were docile and cowardly natural slaves, though; they refused to resist because Saddam sucked so much they preferred the Devil they didn't know. I do not believe the same is true for Iran, and it certainly isn't true for the Gulf states.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
It's not the multinationals transporting the oil, but the insurance cartel based in London. Which would rather pressure the US to stop the war so they can continue to collect war risk premiums with no war risk than actually sell insurance when there might be claims.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
Self-insurance isn't permitted, by treaty, law, regulation, and contract. You have to have P&I from the cartel, and once you are required to have insurance, you're forced to cede your business decisions to the insurers (or join the shadow fleet)
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
but those kind of blockade runners aren't going to be enough to carry the global economy
They would be if the rest of the world would support them rather than continue to insist on insurance rules developed for peacetime.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
The Iranian people have significant support for the US and Israel.
The diaspora does, and a few malcontents inside the country do. But they're probably few and definitely powerless, and thus irrelevant. Their older generations were basically all supporters of the regime, and their younger generations grew up drinking in the propaganda of the regime; I doubt there's too much discontent outside their version of the PMC.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
20hr ago
If AI contributed nothing to GDP growth, then either there was no AI bubble or the AI bubble was largely inconsequential economically... and therefore any popping of the bubble or evaporative cooling of AI will also be inconsequential economically.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Your position denies agency to the "psycho", and in doing so makes hostage-taking a perfectly reasonable strategy.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
No, they were not. That's kinda the point; Iran fired at those who were and those who were not.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
The "it" that didn't happen is flattening the curve.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
· Edited 1d ago
Russia had supposedly been shipping (Iranian-design) drones to Iran, at least before Israel sank their (Iran's) Caspian Sea fleet.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
If the GCC acted at all like the Europeans, the Iranian strategy of "if we're attacked, we'll shoot at anyone we can reach" probably would have worked a lot better. The Gulf states would be expelling us, embargoing oil, cozying up to Iran, etc.
Russia of course is happy because less oil through the strait = more oil sales for them.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
I shoot at you. In retaliation, you throw a grenade into a crowd. I knew you had the grenade... who is responsible for the grenade damage?
In other words, yes, this is still American hyper-agency syndrome.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Nothing will create a global multilateral coalition faster than Iran indiscriminately making the strait of Hormuz impassible.
You would think. But they did, and the global response was "fuck you, US, for doing this". Then Europe backed off a little and sent a strongly worded statement asking the strait to be reopened and nothing more.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
The shadow fleet, of course, has no such restrictions. The West may just be too risk-averse to win a war, because while a war is happening, you do need to continue to do things despite risk imposed by the enemy.
The WSJ published an article yesterday handwringing about the Dubai Airport remaining open. Yeah, like the country should grind to a halt because risks have unavoidably increased. It's that kind of thinking that got us COVID lockdowns, too.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
They have the same attitude as Iran -- that America is the Great Satan and the source of all evil, and so anything that weakens it is good.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
There aren't any smoking guns around from either side. The smoking guns would be in China, and the Chinese government would have very good reasons to cover up lab-leak smoking guns, but none at all to cover up natural-origin smoking guns (and in fact they've tried to fabricate a few of those).
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Initial flattening the curve was a real thing that actually helped
No, it didn't.
Acting like COVID didn't happen? ...tis nonsense.
It happened. We had an extremely nasty (by cold virus standards) cold virus going around. The lockdowns, however, were nonsense, and if we'd done none of them, we'd have had basically the same medical outcome.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
how the hell can a sea mine collect a toll?
You mine the area except for a narrow safe passage that you can control with your military -- currently that means passing between Qeshm and Larak Island and then hugging the Iranian coast near Bandar Abbas. Anyone who doesn't pay the toll either hits a mine or gets boarded and/or blown up by your military.
This doesn't work so well for Iran if they lose control of the coastline and islands, however, which I suspect is going to happen in the next few weeks.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
It's old news. I'm not sure why it's being re-reported now. It's obviously in Iran's interests to have people believe it mined the straits and the only way through is the safe corridor hugging the Iranian coastline.
If it's true, I suspect it won't be much of a problem once the Marines arrive. The US and Israel have almost certainly had continuous observation of the strait since the war began, and likely know the locations of any potential mines.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
1d ago
Again? This "news" from unnamed sources came out a week ago.
There should be a strong prior for widespread support of the regime in charge. We also have the fact that they're Muslims subject to a Muslim regime, and everywhere else in the Gulf, the leaders are actually considerably LESS strict about their religion than the people. We have the various "Death to America" rallies over the years, and the massive public funeral of General Solemani a few years ago. And of course what they don't have -- any real unrest. There's some protests, but they never do anything but soak up bullets. Even if they're not armed, where's the arson and window-breaking, the rocks thrown at police? Even Palestinians can manage that much. Even now, with the regime subject to death from above, there's no indication of popular revolt.
The picture to me is of a people who overwhelmingly support their government, and a few malcontents who go out and protest, sort of cargo-culting Western protestors. And are surprised when they get shot instead of things actually changing.
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