magic9mushroom
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User ID: 1103
magic9mushroom
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1d ago
I guess this depends on what you mean by "kiddy pool"
Well, as mentioned, I dropped the 18+ tag on one of those posts because, um, it would be considered fairly irresponsible to recommend VNs containing tentacle rape to little kids (sure, I'll go to the wall on sex mostly just going over kids' heads, but that's still graphic violence). By "the kiddy pool" I meant "all posts have to be appropriate for kids to see" - particularly when using standards of "appropriate" that are not mine but rather those of actual Anglospheric media-rating boards - and as mentioned I was strongly under the impression that theMotte was not meant to be that (for a variety of reasons including the 18+ tag existing, the general subject matter and rules not really being compatible with your normal 13-year-old's posting style, and my stereotypically-Australian frequency of vulgar language meeting with neither a word filter nor yelling).
magic9mushroom
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1d ago
Re X-COM and reverse difficulty: I think this is mostly a result of players not being willing to sustain losses. If you reset whenever something goes wrong (save scum or campaign scum), you'll get ahead and because the game rewards success it will become easier.
In the original UFO, no. The hardest mission is the first psi mission (～always in January-March), and about the only way a decent player can actually lose a campaign (other than by major unforced errors or self-imposed challenges like failing to check one's finances before the end of a month, ignoring terror sites on purpose, or attempting Cydonia without psi) is to have one's main base destroyed by aliens in January (NB: UFO and TFTD start in January). Part of the issue is that the campaign is designed to be played blind i.e. for you to waste a lot of time researching the many topics that don't lead anywhere, and having any idea what you're doing means the aliens don't scale fast enough. Part of it is that the aliens just don't scale much at all on the strategic level; aliens do increase their operational tempo somewhat as the game goes on, but they don't ever get any better at getting past X-Com's radars and interceptors, while those radars and interceptors get staggeringly better, and as mentioned you can trigger an Alien Retaliation on day one. And part of it is that psionics are just broken in UFO and TFTD (psi-troopers will quickly reach the point of being able to mind-control 3 aliens at once, with 100% reliability, at any distance, and they don't need personal LoS to the aliens; this turns missions into cakewalks once you get to that point).
Terror from the Deep improves somewhat on this, with the "first psi mission is an utter ball-buster" problem mostly fixed (at least relative to TFTD's overall higher difficulty), the strategic game being somewhat more loseable later on (due to Artefact Sites, which can't be avoided and have crippling penalties for failure, as well as the point threshold of a "bad" month being stricter on the higher difficulties), and aliens scaling a bit more. But, well, I've played TFTD on Superhuman (the top difficulty) twice (no save-scumming, to be clear), and the loss the first time was (*drumroll*) from having my main base destroyed by aliens in January, triggered - to my best guess - on day one (the second try won). It's still definitely a pattern.
Apocalypse definitely doesn't have reverse difficulty. The late-game is easy, yes (though the tactical game still isn't rote despite said easiness), but the early-game is also easy; it's the midgame where things get a bit tricky (although honestly, not that tricky; I'd definitely rate Apocalypse the easiest of the original trilogy).
magic9mushroom
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1d ago
Second: Someone reading this warning will probably wonder whether this means that gooning material is fair game for the CW thread. It is not. This is a discussion forum for testing shady thinking, not for sharing gooning material. You can talk about the CW, but not wage CW; you can talk about the sociocultural development of gooning (ugh, if you must) but this is not the place to goon.
Third: We will be employing the Supreme Court's own standard in enforcing this rule.
As in, the one about "lack of redeeming value", or just the one about "I know it when I see it"?
Essentially, I'm asking whether you're declaring this to be the kiddy pool (I was kinda under the impression it wasn't, given the 18+ tag exists), or just forbidding random horny drops. ('Cause, y'know, people's sexual preferences do get questioned occasionally in CW-relevant contexts.)
magic9mushroom
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2d ago
I don't know if this is idiomatic in American English.
Neither do I; I speak Australian English.
magic9mushroom
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2d ago
From what I understand the whole point was that Rationalists saw the dawn of AI on the horizon, but no one was taking them seriously, so the idea to gradually and systematically gain credibility, so when the time comes they can use it to push humanity in the right direction on this question.
The idea was mostly to teach all the randoms (or at least, enough of them) how to actually think so that they would take it seriously.
magic9mushroom
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2d ago
Elaborate on the naughtiness.
magic9mushroom
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3d ago
Saving external porn to hard drive sounds like a foreign concept to me in ${CurrentYear}, akin to downloading mp3s from Napster or something.
My internet sometimes goes down for days at a time.
magic9mushroom
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6d ago
Trump commands US nuclear forces and Trump has made clear that he's all for AI development, bigly and with great speed. Who wins AI, wins! And then there's Jensen whispering in his ear.
Trump could still flip. He could also die (he's 80 and there have been... what, a dozen assassination attempts on him already?), or be impeached/removed (the Republican Party and even the Republican base are not really behind him on this).
China doesn't want to get left behind and they consider US AI progress a strategic threat, Dario especially they fear and hate. They spent the last 100 years trying to catch up in technology to the West, they're not likely to stop now. A pause is to their advantage if the US halts and they catch up in semiconductors. That makes the situation more volatile. A Chinese leader is hardly likely to say 'we accept an inferior position indefinitely in this valuable field of technology by treaty', that would be humiliating.
There is the possibility of agreeing to parity, or to a gap that's smaller than currently exists. There is also, as you're probably sick of hearing from me, the possibility that we have WWIII over Taiwan and nobody has to worry about China for the next 100 years.
This is not something we can hold back from, AI is obviously lucrative and potent and beneficial. More potent and lucrative and beneficial as the danger rises.
The international moratorium on human gene editing is holding up pretty decently IIRC.
magic9mushroom
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6d ago
*gets banned not goes banned
He said "goes well" and "goes badly". I was following the pattern.
Good luck «revoking» Chinese independence.
I think the Chinese could be convinced to sign on; they don't want the world to end any more than we do. In extremis, though, I will point out that the USA does possess enough nukes to return China to the 1930s in population and infrastructure.
Anyway it getting banned is impossible
Then we're dead. The fact that >99% of humans don't want to be dead is the reason I think it's not impossible.
but if it happened it would increase the salience of eugenics because the fundamental risk is human alignment / relative untintelligence.
Maybe. So?
magic9mushroom
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6d ago
Either AI goes well or it goes badly. Whatever mild or gross dysfunction pales in comparison to being dead or immortal.
There's also the option of "it goes banned", with countries that refuse to implement the ban having their independence revoked.
In that one, fertility actually does matter to a reasonable extent.
(From where I sit, aligning neural-net ASI - i.e. figuring out whether it will produce omnicidal outputs, and then tweaking semi-randomly until it no longer does so - is almost certainly flat impossible. "What does this program output when run" is literally the (proven-impossible-in-the-general-case) halting problem, and here you don't even know which outputs are omnicidal because reality is complicated and the ASI is smarter than you. So the "it goes well" case is ruled out, and the only case worth planning for is "it goes banned".)
magic9mushroom
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7d ago
Was this supposed to be mod-hatted?
magic9mushroom
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11d ago
Pain is a useful stimulus, too: eliminating it wholesale isn't inherently good for people (see opioids, for an example).
The cleaner example is leprosy. Lepers don't feel pain; nearly all the problems with leprosy are because of that.
But I do have misgivings about putting LLMs in a box and applying stimuli that would be unethical to apply to living things without good reason.
Confirming that the stimuli are real in order to convince others not to apply them counts as a good reason in my book.
magic9mushroom
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11d ago
Some of the replies have noted that accepting these propositions leads to conclusions as ridiculous as [...] "laws against animal cruelty are unjustifiable"
I hold that conclusion, at least with regard to the vast majority of animals. E. coli exhibits pain responses; "feels pain" as a sufficient condition for rights leads us ad absurdum. "Is capable of running Tit-for-Tat and thus engaging in a social contract" seems like a better condition to me.
magic9mushroom
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15d ago
I recall the response always being the Yudkowsky followers bowing out of the conversation. Explicitly saying they're bowing out. Which is a thought defeating cliche to prevent themselves from considering contrary ideas.
I would appreciate receipts on this; there are alternate explanations which I'd need to rule out to believe your conclusion.
(AIUI, Yudkowsky is not a big fan of the "it's not about convincing your debating partner; it's about convincing the audience" school of thought so popular among SJ. Hence, if someone demonstrates that he is not amenable to reasonable discussion, there is no point continuing the conversation - and politeness dictates that one note this rather than simply ghosting. I can't distinguish between these hypotheses from the information you've given.)
Stuff like that is why they had to speak in code avoiding the word "cult" to describe themselves. Asking users to please stop writing the word "cult" or search engines will associate them with cults.
I mean, the Ratsphere as a whole (as opposed to Leverage and the Zizians, and maybe the Vassarites) doesn't seem to meet any of the criteria for a destructive cult. Arguably it's a benign cult, but lol who cares.
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
AIUI the situation with nuclear is basically "the technology exists to do it cheaply and safely, but there's too much regulatory red tape"; hence, most of the uncertainty is political.
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
· Edited 16d ago
He didn't mention the word "nanobot" in the second linked article either. Probably has something to do with the fact that when people hear "nanobot" they think a mini-robot made out of metal, and that's not what he's talking about.
(I call the thing he's talking about "Life 2.0", and while I might not be quite as bullish on what can be wrung out of it, "kill the biosphere" with Life 2.0 is a DEFINITE YES because I know the skeleton of one method.)
superintelligence ≈ omnipotence for all intents and purposes
Your "for all intents and purposes" is doing a lot of work. "Omnipotent", to me, means God/simulators; someone who has write access to reality. You can be very powerful without having that.
magic9mushroom
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16d ago
· Edited 16d ago
Also one of the things the Yuddites seem incapable of doing is figuring out that superintelligence does not mean omnipotence.
Omnipotence is not expected, and also not required to kill all humans.
(NB: while I'm generally a follower of the Rightful Caliph, I'd disagree on one or two of the particulars there; FTL's about the only one where I'm more than a step or two away, though.)
magic9mushroom
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18d ago
The Plan A is intimidation, sticks and carrots, and gradual reunification
That most definitely was Plan A. It died a horrible screaming death in 2020 when Xi Jinping pulled a Darth Vader on Hong Kong. The Chinese can read polls; they know that Taiwanese support for unification was increasing but dropped to lizardman in 2020. The Taiwanese will not trust "one country, two systems" any time in the next 50 years.
They're not. [...] just plan B
I chose my words carefully, as I usually do. I said "preparing for". They clearly intend to have a Taiwan invasion button available next year, and have made no secret of that. Whether they push it, that I don't know and have never pretended to know (I don't think anyone knows for certain, even them; they are not robots and will respond to the situation at the time).
You can't convince me
Apparently not.
neither can you convince Beijing.
I just said that. More's the pity.
magic9mushroom
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18d ago
Cries in Australian.
I mean, I think "literally broke out of mental hospital once" is the kind of thing that makes a firearms licence a bit tricky even in the 'States. But yeah. Actually, the weapons control laws here in Victoria are much worse than you'd expect from "bows are legal, no questions asked"; over half the things that are on the Naughty List aren't even as deadly as a bow.
I'd still be more worried about distribution than production.
As I said, there might be a hiccup, but if all else fails I can survive going hungry for a couple of days. Of course, the more-immediate issue at that juncture is surviving the people who've seen too many movies and think nuclear war and/or a slight food interruption is an excuse to turn into cannibal looters. The police would likely suffice to stop them, but as a contingency plan... well, that's where the bow comes in.
Maybe not stocking three years worth of toilet paper,
I'm just glad I lived in college during COVID - which used commercial toilet rolls, not the household ones that were hoarded.
magic9mushroom
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18d ago
· Edited 18d ago
This is, sorry to say, delusional.
Alright, if we're going there, I think you systematically underestimate the West, and it's causing bugs in essentially all your predictions. In a darkly ironic way, this mirrors the Chinese inability to grok the Western mindset which is why they're preparing to invade Taiwan in the first place.
Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler at Munich is a key touchstone of the postwar Western mindset - in the sense that it's total political suicide to do anything remotely like that ever again. Ukraine didn't get boots on the ground because it's not a First World country and arms shipments were plausibly sufficient, and even then the public wanted Biden to be more aggressive. Taiwan is a First World country, the consequences of losing it are significant even besides that, and Japan will come in (Takaichi Sanae has outright said that) which would make the rest of us look like cowards unless we followed suit. I won't say it's certain, but it's highly probable that the USA would come in on a Taiwan invasion.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
Okay, fine, I'll elaborate. I was talking about WWIII, specifically from a country Australian perspective - i.e. EMP very likely, and thus no more EFTPOS, but food should continue being available after maybe a short hiccup* (Australia's food surplus is bullshit-huge) and warlordism somewhat less likely than in the USA. I'm already decently prepped in general - emergency radio, 60m aluminium foil for protecting electronics including said radio, KI pills, 20L bottled water juuuust in case Adelaide gets nuked and the fallout hits us (this is unlikely), bicycle, high-powered bow (also unlikely to see use).
I will note that gold seems a lousy investment; while gold can't hyperinflate from overprinting, it still is for most intents and purposes a fiat currency; it is valuable because people think it's valuable, not because of its actual uses, and will become less valuable when people have less surplus. I'd expect the price of gold to come down in a catastrophe with respect to any currency that didn't fail, and my read is that the AUD wouldn't fail (I'm less certain that the USD wouldn't fail).
*I'm anorexic, so going without food for a few days is something I can live with, although I'd probably stock up a little on non-perishables if I suspect Doom Soon. I know more non-perishables than most people, so I'm not especially worried about "beating the rush".
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
Already done years ago. Only halves the chip motive, though, since the West wouldn't be able to use the fabs either, and there are still the other benefits of holding the island.
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
· Edited 19d ago
Do you imagine the US goes to total war with China (and even wins it, even at the cost of Washington DC, so I guess we go nuclear here) over Taiwan?
Yes.
Losing Taiwan unfought means South Korea and Japan sprint for nukes, and you likely wind up with WWIII anyway, just with a handicap. Also, Trump hates looking weak.
Oh, I don't imagine Trump would immediately jump to "NUCLEAR LAUNCH DETECTED", but conventional war, yes, and that likely escalates to nuclear because of false alarms (the Cuban Missile Crisis had the Duluth bear and the Arhkipov incident, and that was two weeks and not even a real war).
(Also, I'm not American, so the correct pronoun is "they".)
magic9mushroom
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19d ago
No, because my read is that either we have a Butlerian Jihad (and Anthropic loses most of its value, though not all) or we all get paperclipped.
In the extremely-unlikely case that Anthropic actually manages to pull off alignment of neural-net ASI, they could also turn around and stiff their shareholders.
Familiar story; the yandere fandom has had a lot of sites cancelled, neutered or outright cyberattacked when they got noticed, including the one I modded for a few years.
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