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magic9mushroom

If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me

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joined 2022 September 10 11:26:14 UTC
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magic9mushroom


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

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					joined 2022 September 10 11:26:14 UTC
				


				
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I am going to take a shot at explaining to you what has happened here, on the off-chance that you don't already know.


You provided this link as demonstration of SCOTUS separating the Harvard case from the UNC case.


https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/062722zor_b97d.pdf


However, this link does not demonstrate anything of the sort. This link describes a bunch of SCOTUS procedural decisions, but the case being discussed is not among them. Providing a bogus citation like this admits three explanations:


    

  1. You mispasted but are acting in good faith;
    2. 

  2. You did not read and comprehend your citation before posting it;
    3. 

  3. You were deliberately posting a fake citation, in the hopes that your interlocutor and/or audience members would take the "cited" statement more seriously without actually checking the citation.
    4. 



When @YoungAchamian saw this, he responded thusly:




Also this link does not contain the actual case you said it does. I'm pretty sure you are trolling at this point.




He considered option #3 the most likely (i.e. that you are acting with malice), which is somewhat uncharitable.


Note that if #1 were true, you would be near-certain to respond to your "citation" being called out as bogus by checking it, noticing that it was posted in error, and apologising (probably with a new link to whatever you had meant to link). You did not do so. This is part of why YA said:




I am now 100% sure you are trolling in bad faith, since you have considered no other evidence and just ignore anything that proves you wrong.




The other part is that you posted this additional link:


https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/20-1199_hgdj.pdf


This citation is, if anything, more suspicious than the first. The reason is that this citation is the judgement of both the cases SFFA v. Harvard and SFFA v. UNC; the cases were indeed separated, but they were given a single judgement (the actual reason for separation was that Ketanji Brown Jackson was recused from the Harvard case but not the UNC case due to a conflict of interest). This is literally the primary source showing that the SCOTUS ruled against UNC, contrary to your main claim. Most relevant quotes:


a)




STUDENTS FOR FAIR ADMISSIONS, INC. v. PRESIDENT AND FELLOWS OF HARVARD COLLEGE






CERTIORARI TO THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR
THE FIRST CIRCUIT No. 20–1199. Argued October 31, 2022—Decided June 29, 2023*






*Together with No. 21–707, Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. University of North Carolina et al., on certiorari before judgment to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.




b)




Held: Harvard’s and UNC’s admissions programs violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. Pp. 6–40.




As noted above, these are from a link you provided. Thus, there are only two options here:


    

  1. You didn't actually read and comprehend this document before posting it;
    2. 

  2. You know that SCOTUS ruled against UNC, but you said it ruled in favour of UNC i.e. you are a malicious liar.
    3. 



Floor's yours.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I am now 100% sure you are trolling in bad faith, since you have considered no other evidence and just ignore anything that proves you wrong.




No point telling him that; bad guys know they're bad guys. Report and move on.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
What's a "Family Obliterator"?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I mean, I'm sure most of these things would get sorted out without mushroom clouds. My guess based on the close calls in the Cuban Missile Crisis is like 1% per day or so that it all goes south. It's just, well, that adds up; 99%^182 = 16% of our luck holding out for six months (I didn't say "extremely lucky").


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
History's on the fringes of being social science, but it's usually considered humanities.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
If nukes are (apparently or actually) flying at China, they won't have the option of "occupy Taiwan and execute the DPP in an orderly fashion" anymore, and all deterrents are void.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Apologies for the late reply; last night I had to put cream on one of my hands.




The US nuclear arsenal is very secure.




Yes.




China wouldn't start such a big war unless they think they have a secure nuclear arsenal.




Or unless they're overconfident in the USA not coming in.




What scenario are you thinking of?




The first one you mention is somewhat plausible, but I'm assuming a lot more "fog of war" than what you seem to be doing. I'm thinking things like "Chinese radar falsely detects SLBM launches, not sorted out within the minutes available and PLARF launches-on-warning" or "US sends bombers at targets in mainland China, they're nuclear-capable so PRC figures they might be intending to nuke the Chinese deterrent" or "US radar falsely detects Chinese ICBM launches, counterforce alpha-strike is attempted to reduce casualties".


Note that launch-detection satellites are probably toast in a WWIII scenario because of the long-standing Chinese war plan to open up WWIII with massive ASAT use, that the PRC probably will be launching a bunch of ballistic missiles at Taiwan as part of any attack, and that the PRC's land radars may be taking a beating as part of conventional warfare.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
And the Chinese will "have missiles off their shores" in any likely WWIII scenario. Aircraft carriers carry nukes and a lot of the Western SSBNs would likely be deployed to the Sea of Japan/Philippine Sea/Bay of Bengal.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The CPC consider the DPP and probably a decent chunk of voters for it to be "their own people in open rebellion", and want to kill them.


Moreover, we're positing a scenario in which nukes are (apparently or actually) flying at China and the CPC is trying to punish everyone it deems responsible, which necessarily includes Taiwan because if they'd surrendered the war wouldn't have happened.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The Cuban Missile Crisis lasted what, two weeks? We had one accidental launch of nuclear bombers (the Duluth bear fiasco) and had a 2/3 majority onboard a Soviet submarine for "launch nuclear torpedo" (needed unanimous). Procedures have improved somewhat, but also that wasn't even a shooting war.


Sooner or later, there'll be a false alarm that gets treated as real. The chance per day is low, but it adds up.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 16, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But wars between serious powers usually last for years. Ukraine has lasted for years, it's a war of attrition.




Ukraine has lasted for years because Ukraine doesn't have nukes and doesn't have any way of getting rid of Russia's nukes, thus preventing false alarms leading to Russian launch (and because there is still significant deterrence against Russia using nukes proactively).


Direct war between the USA and PRC is completely different. You'll be lucky if it lasts six months without nuclear exchange.


Admittedly, this still means most Taiwanese die because Taipei/Tainan eat Chinese nukes, but you're assuming your way out of reality thinking that a Taiwan war would last for years.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Edit: like 2-1 density ratio between 100C hydrogen and -100C hydrogen, you'd only have 1/6th the buoyant force of a hydrogen balloon on earth. But double check my napkin math




As a less-relevant point, I did double-check your maths and I think you did make a mistake somewhere.


Hydrogen at (old) STP (0 C, 1 atm) has a density of 0.08988 g/L. Assuming ideal gas, that's a density of 0.0658 g/L at 100C and 0.1418 g/L at -100C, for a buoyancy of 0.0760 g/L for your hot hydrogen balloon in cold hydrogen at 1 atm.


Air at (old) STP has a density of 1.2922 g/L (representing an average molar mass of slightly under 29, due to contributions from N2 at 28, O2 at 32, Ar at 40 and H2O at 18, whereas H2 is 2). As such, a non-heated hydrogen balloon in 0-degree 1-atm air has a buoyancy of 1.2023 g/L, which is 15.8x the buoyancy of your hot hydrogen balloon (or 14.5x if your "hydrogen balloon on Earth" comparison is at 25 degrees and 1 atm).


I think you might have divided the density ratios of air/hydrogen vs. hot/cold hydrogen, but the relevant criterion for determining how big a balloon you need is the absolute difference of the densities. You need 15.8x as big a balloon to support a given weight with your setup as you would at STP with a hydrogen balloon in air (actually somewhat more, because the lifting gas has to lift the balloon as well as the payload and the skin of a balloon with 15.8x the volume weighs 6.3x as much for a given material/thickness).


(Jupiter's atmosphere does have about 14% He, which makes the numbers a little better than with pure H2, but not much. And yes, that does bring up the possibility of using a pure-hydrogen balloon without heating, but between the buoyancy per litre being even worse than in your example at ~0.0192 g/L and the thick balloon walls needed to keep He and H2 apart in the long-term (they're both notoriously-difficult gases to contain), I think you again wind up in "theoretically possible and could totally let an atmospheric probe float for a few hours, but not practical for long-term holding up a city" land.)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				How to make me Instinctively Distrust You Part 3: Priming
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


To me that seems much too broad, particularly since 'harm' is difficult to clearly define, and no one can reasonably foresee all the effects of their speech.




My understanding is that many or perhaps most (though not all) of the people going around using (rather than critiquing) the term "malinformation" are basically using it as a dysphemism for "truth that damages the Narrative" - the Swedish study that showed immigrants committed more crime than native-borns, for instance.


Obviously, I oppose these people's efforts to stigmatise and censor inconvenient truths.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				How to make me Instinctively Distrust You Part 3: Priming
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


True and malevolent - malinformation. Facts offered in order to harm another or decrease their overall understanding, whether through selective choice of facts, removal of context, inflammatory content, or similar.




Definitions I've seen vary between that and "truth that causes harm" absent a requirement of malevolence.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's highly nontrivial to get "very much" influence/power, and the main ways involve quite a bit of luck. Journalism reliably gets some, can get quite a bit, and while it's tricky to get "very much" strictly as a journalist, journalism -> politics isn't unheard of.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Noah Smith: Insurance companies aren't the main villain of the U.S. health system
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Whoops, not sure how that happened. Tagging @Throwaway05 to avoid needing to repost.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's theoretically possible, but a) it's still weak (particularly since it's not breathable, whereas a cloud city on Venus counts all the air toward lifting gas), b) it's an active system which kills everyone inside a day if it's turned off, which generally falls under the heading of Bad Ideas.


(On Earth, the slow buoyancy failure of a hot-air balloon usually produces a survivable if bumpy landing. But, of course, that's no help on a giant planet.)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Noah Smith: Insurance companies aren't the main villain of the U.S. health system
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
"Rein in". Equestrian term.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Noah Smith: Insurance companies aren't the main villain of the U.S. health system
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
To be fair, they do also spend big gobs of money on rent-seeking and marketing. One must question whether there are better incentives from another system, such as "government buys out new drugs depending on how useful they are, no patents".


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Radiation resistance is a big deal.


Of course, the irony is that radiation resistance works against Mars, because what you want is either a) a thick atmosphere (Earth, Venus, Titan*) or b) low-enough gravity that you can go deep underground easily (for which asteroids and even Luna beat Mars handily).


*Not discounting Venus because its CO2 atmosphere permits cloud cities. Discounting the giant planets because their H2 atmospheres don't.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
There are some "mutual kill" scenarios where we kill Skynet but Skynet unleashes something that kills all Earthbound humans (e.g. Operation Dark Storm, or an alga that isn't digestible, doesn't need phosphate and has a better carbon-fixer than RuBisCO). Not high-probability, though.


There's also the AI-pessimist view: "neural-net alignment is impossible, so if neural-net AGI happens we're all doomed". No point planning for worlds where you're dead anyway; you want to play to 1) stop near-term AGI, 2) succeed in an AGI-less world. This a) negates your point, but also b) means you probably want to have "building things" projects that aren't AI, in order to pull the smart, driven people out of the AI field (where their talents are an outright detriment to humanity).


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Not entirely unlike how taking too many cocks results in severe dissociation and impaired mate bonding.




I suspect you've got the causation backward; being crazy or narcissistic makes you low-value as a partner without being especially physically obvious, which coupled with high-standards-world (preventing settling for a low-value man) and free-love-world (preventing shotgun wedding) is a recipe for "taking 100 cocks".


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
What is "catgirl thighhigh"?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
    

  1. 

    We're operating in meta-land here, where "co-operate" = "abide by principles" and "defect" = "ignore principles for partisan gain". Or at least, that's the frame @mrvanillasky was using. Talking about abiding by principles of how often to co-operate vs. defectors is thus not addressing the point because that's another meta-level up.
    

    2. 

  2. 

    I would indeed make that claim about "abide".
    

    3. 

  3. 

    I will note for the record that TfTwF only actually beats TfT against things extremely similar to "TfT plus noise", and that in the TfTwF mirror the one that's slower to forgive wins.
    

    4. 



				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of December 9, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
TfTwF doesn't "abide by moral principles the other side does not keep". It occasionally extends an olive branch, but then goes right back to defect-spam if it's not taken.


There is room for counterargument to @mrvanillasky's position, but it's entirely based on disputing the IPD frame; TfTwF does not do what you're arguing for and pure CooperateBot is not a winning strategy. This is why I said "point of order", as I was disputing the analogy rather than the conclusion.