domain:streamable.com
Folamh3
1m ago
Deiseach is still active in the ACX comment section. Reading between the lines I get the impression he lives in Ireland.
mottetert
9m ago
The correct solution to climate change is directly controlling the temperature by releasing sulfate aerosols in the upper atmosphere. At a cost of $5-20 billion per year we can hold temperatures in place or reduce them, even as CO2 levels rise. These people want to destroy industrial civilization over a glorified nothingburger.
That won't work forever. Those aerosols don't stay in the air nearly as long as CO2 does. So if we depend on them, we'll likely continue to raise the CO2 to dangerous levels while temporarily covering it up with the aerosols. It'll work for a while, but on historical timescales sooner or later something will happen that will disrupt the flights that deliver the aerosols. It could be a war, natural disaster, oil depletion, or anything that disrupts modern civilization and trade. Then the temperature will shoot up to where it would have been without the aerosols, but it will be worse because it will happen much quicker with no chance for people to adapt, and it will compound with whatever crisis caused the disruption.
sohois
13m ago
I've had posts appear in the "Highlights from the comments..." threads under a username in the past. Not seen any bias towards real names, the bigger issue is that it's likely too late for a comment to get noticed amongst thousands of others
TowardsPanna
42m ago
Yeah. That's one of my fears too. The more trash we put into orbit, the higher the risk goes of making the satellite space unviable forever.
Boeing keeps winning.
Silverdawn
Small Language Model
1hr ago
Maybe try an eliminating diet to check if the food you're eating is causing the problems. I remember having a similar problem when I initially became lactose intolerant. Stopping all milk consumption fixed it.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1hr ago
Fair enough, in the end neither am I. Just remember someone posting about it on /r/stupidpol.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
1hr ago
That sounds rough. I got a single shot of tramadol after the surgery and that's it, they offered a nightcap shot, but I refused it and didn't need any meds after that, just felt like shit for three days.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
1hr ago
Surgery?
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
1hr ago
it's an argument for why we should grab our guns and start shooting.
Please stop saying this.
BahRamYou
2hr ago
But doesnt that require you to have some special insight about elections? I agree with nate silver, this election is too close to call and i have no idea what will happen. I certainly wouldn't want to wager millions of dollars on it. If you have some special insight, you could probably becone a celebrity forecaster like nate silver and make more that way.
Lost
2hr ago
Yeah this is a fairly accurate take, although I also made a good amount of money (nowhere near your bankroll, natch) betting on Trump in '16 when his odds were extremely undervalued, both in the primary and the general, up until the last couple months
f3zinker
Its A/B testing all the way down
2hr ago
If a M100 works, you didn't need a gaming mouse to begin with, just one that works at all. `
TowardsPanna
2hr ago
May I ask what gives you confidence on where crypto is headed? What sort of bets did you make?
sapph
3hr ago
The crypto election markets (ie polymarket) dont have those problems. You can bet millions without changing the odds too much (assuming you spread your bets out a little). Spread and withdrawal fees are very small. You are probably thinking of the situation with predictit which did have all those issues.
Note: I specifically do mean election markets. Elections, especially presidential elections, have by far the most liquidity. But you can bet tens or low hundreds of thousands of dollars on all sorts of markets. Liquidity varies but many markets have decent liquidity.
Stellula
3hr ago
Maybe it was like he had said he read moldbug then or something?
It was a long time ago when he was announced that this was being talked about. It was surprising how much overlap he had with the sort of people poasters here like.
cjet79
3hr ago
Yeah all of them announced completion of their vaccine literally the day after the election.
And it'd be better to begin geoengineering now than to wait 20 years, wouldn't it?
Not really. Depends on the discount rate and the cheapness of various solutions. Basically do the geo-engineering when it makes sense from a cost benefit perspective.
BahRamYou
3hr ago
that's impressive. are you actively trading crypto, or just HODLing it? It seems hard to make large amounts on prediction markets, no matter how good you are, because they're just too thinly traded and have too much of a spread/withdrawal fees.
cjet79
3hr ago
I originally had something in my post about negotiating with terrorists.
I didn't want to be confused about calling the dems terrorists. But there is somethign to the US policy of "no negotiating with terrorists". If someone threatens you with violence or defecting, it makes sense to no longer negotiate with that person. Basically once that is on the table there is no guaranteed off-ramp except more violence.
If the democrats are willing to hold the government hostage, then there really isn't much room to negotiate with them. The only winning move is not to play.
Grant_us_eyes
3hr ago
As weird as this demented chimera of a forum is, I'm reasonably certain that we really don't have any major movers and shakers in the national political realm.
Reasonably certain.
...then again, on the off chance that I'm wrong, can we, make a wish list, or something? I've got a particular bone to grind with the EPA in regards to emission standards, and as it stands, purchasing a reasonably priced Toyota Hilux is about as likely as winning the lottery by this point...
Felagund
3hr ago
Are you in Wisconsin? That's the only one that had that list match exactly. It looks like their only write-in candidate available is Peter Sonski, of the American Solidarity Party.
I imagine De la Cruz is too extreme with you, wanting to abolish capitalism. I couldn't find identifiable policies for Terry.
If by "quantitative approaches to existential threats" you mean, not shutting down everything over climate change, while still caring about it, I imagine that rules out West and Stein. They're also just generally more extreme.
Of the remaining:
Oliver likes to handle things by just having the government leave the matter. He wants to let everyone in on immigration. He wants to help the climate only by stopping government actions that make things worse.
Trump's probably more anti-trade than you'd like, and cares less about the environment than you'd prefer (though he agrees that clean air and water are important).
RFK's now only listing things that he can agree with Trump on, which makes him hard for me to evaluate.
Sonski's not really a YIMBY, and wants to keep allowing in refugees.
I'd say, if you want to choose someone with a chance, definitely go Trump. Otherwise, your closest match is probably one of those last four, but I'm not sure which.
Ditto6687
3hr ago
I remember moldbug saying he will not come on Twitter, did he change his mind?
TequilaMockingbird
4hr ago
Jason and Kylie Kelce are the superior Kelces, change my view ;-)
NewCharlesInCharge
4hr ago
Make the thief, if convicted, liable for the lost wages. If they can't pay, have the state front the money and charge the prevailing interest rate to the thief. If they malinger once out of prison, impress them and make them work it off laboring for the state.
Perfectly fair point, the Belgian option
More options
Context Copy link