Grant_us_eyes
No bio...
User ID: 1156
Grant_us_eyes
2d ago
I mean, there's technically nothing about destructive uploading that would require an AGI Singularity, just enough fidelity in the scanning process, messy as it is.
Anything beyond that... well, I confess, I'm both impressed and terrified that they managed to atleast stumble in the direction of uploading a fruitfly. So I guess we'll see.
Grant_us_eyes
2d ago
I mean, that's exactly what the Left did, initially. When the idea of Covid effectively being a Chinese-derived flu and talk of ceasing travel/immigration from Asian countries, it was the Left as a whole piling out and going on about hugging a Chinese person today.
Then, when it finally arrived, the Left were the ones driving Lockdown efforts, with the Right being turned into Covid-deniers.
And then BLM happened. And we all know how that turned out. So...
Grant_us_eyes
9d ago
The Civil war.
No, seriously, the Civil War. Historically, the last time we had what amounted to a multi-party election was the one involving Lincoln - there were four presidential canidates on the ballet, each a different party, each of whom received a sizable chunk of the electorate vote.
That entire instance kind of soured the notion of anything above and beyond two-party voting.
Grant_us_eyes
12d ago
Been playing far to much Vintage Story, still.
I have to confess, this is probably my longest and most accomplished run. The fortress I built is working very well for my needs, I've got a double-stack windmill giving me more than enough power to drive the gear ratios I've got setup and the devices I need, and this is the first time I've actually started to work toward developing steel and building up the end-game Jonas devices. Turns out, melting cupronickel, despite being a copper alloy, requires coke to reach the requisite temperatures. And if I want to start dying clothing, mining chromium requires steel pickaxes.
Goddamit.
Grant_us_eyes
14d ago
Even better, this development is honestly kinda recent. I can think back to, oh, pre-covid and things were alot more managable in terms of getting together and whatnot.
While this is a personal supposition of mine, I honestly think the economy is doing alot worse than people realize. So the only option left for alot of men are jobs that are basically the 'leftovers' - requiring lots of travel, technically unappealing to those that want to settle or have families they want to spend time with, and so on.
Grant_us_eyes
15d ago
While I have a compartively large friendgroup that streches back to high school(And beleive you me, you have NO idea how surprised I am by this), the one issue we run into nowadays is the one you mentioned - Work. All the work my friends can get require either heavy odd hours or boatloads of travel with intermittent time at home, meaning getting together can be sporadic.
Amoung said particular group, mine was the only job that didn't require travel, and given my luck, that may very well change in the coming year.
Grant_us_eyes
16d ago
Reviews as a whole have become fairly useless due to bots and paid shills. Even forums like Buy it For Life have been seeing hints of bots posting to fluff a product.
The best way to wade through the grey sludge I've found is to focus on 4-star reviews, but we'll see how long that lasts.
Grant_us_eyes
17d ago
Thank you. I could go off on a long rant about this, but best not to distract the conversation so much.
It's the type of 'historical revisionism bordering on a lie' that even Americans have started to believe it.
Grant_us_eyes
17d ago
That's quite the bubble, yes.
For what it's worth, post October 7th, I recall a massive amount of support for Isreal from a large number of right-wing coded spaces, though perhaps that's my bubble in action.
...conversely, I'm also seeing a number of that same space react negatively to getting dragged into a war with Iran, while the other half has simply devolved into Holden Bloodfeast.
Grant_us_eyes
21d ago
You're saying nobody wants to match her energy
'Want' isn't the case here. You can't 'want' to match someone's energy. You either match it or you don't.
From my experience, guys who can match that level of energy are rare on the ground.
but you know a guy and his GF made him jump through hoops
My exact words were 'and the amount of hoops that he had to jump through to find someone'
Seeing that from off to the sides was one of the things that severely curtailed my enthusiasm for dating. When you've got a guy who runs his own business, owns several vehicles, has a list of hobbies longer than my arm, and is fucking ripped, if you'll excuse the vulgarity, and still struggle to find someone to settle down with, well, it doesn't exactly inspire confidence in one's self.
Having a lot going on is a good thing for most people.
There's a wide gulf between 'having hobbies that make you interesting' and effectively having three jobs that take up a fair bit of time in her life alongside all the other stuff you mentioned.
Are there guys who can match that? Yes. Are they very rare on the ground? Also yes.
I'm not arguing that she should change. Shine on, you crazy diamond. But I will point out that said hobbies and activities pretty much explain why she's single.
Grant_us_eyes
22d ago
I didn't engage your initial post's discussion about motivation, because it wasn't central to my earlier arguments. But it's worth noting that the average person's opinion (poorly informed as it is) is not and never has been particularly important for space flight.
Not sure I'd agree with this. I feel the politics of the 60s/70s/80s gets glossed over in a weird way in regards to history, but atleast part of the Civil Rights Movement were actively protesting against the Apollo program.
Now, it's questionable how much this had in terms of affect on political policy and influencing NASA, but I'm not so quick to dismiss it.
The popularity of the original Space Race is grossly overstated. Most people back then didn't particularly care that much.
Conversely, I'm not so sure about this, either.
If you've never watched it, there's an incredible documentary about the Apollo program called In The Shadow of the Moon, which goes into amazing and indepth interviews with surviving Apollo astronauts at the time of the documentary. It also shows near world-wide celebration when America managed to land safely on the moon.
So I don't know. I wouldn't be that quick to dismiss the importance of public opinion.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I feel the need to go rewatch a certain documentary...
Grant_us_eyes
22d ago
But there's a lot of guys who would be able and very willing to match her energy
This is the point where I start laughing hysterically.
No. No, there is not. The reason I say this is because I do know of atleast one person who does match that energy - and the amount of hoops that he had to jump through to find someone who did match him was... well, it wasn't herculean, but it was definitely more than one and definitely more than you'd expect given the guy in question.
Ironically enough, to a medical doctor. Albiet, one who was still in school, but she later graduated and started practicing. So.
If anything, you detailing her list of hobbies explains pretty much everything about her and why she's having so much trouble.
If she does end up happily married, it'll likely be through a remarkable conflux of near impossible events. Or she unexpected matches with someone that's her total reverse, I dunno.
Grant_us_eyes
23d ago
Ah, that explains it, then. Well, glad to see I atleast pulled it from somewhere, as opposed to the idle and delusional musings of my mind.
Grant_us_eyes
23d ago
Maybe it's been a while, but my personal head-canon was that Edmond didn't get cucked, and his fiance only married his enemy to protect Edmund's son she was pregnant with at the time.
...yeah, maybe it's time for me to re-read the book. I blame the anime for this.
Grant_us_eyes
23d ago
While I don't have a full picture of your overall financial situation(and I'm not asking), if I were in your situation I'd probably invest.
Not sure why you don't have a car, but if you shop right for your needs, you don't really need to tap into said investment to grab one. My suggestion would be an old hatchback - fun to drive with good gas milieage.
Grant_us_eyes
26d ago
I've been putting way too many goddamn hours into Vintage Story, as of late.
...but soon, winter will break. My canals have been built. I shall sail from my castle on the lake into the sea to go on an adventure to a lost ruin to fight against eldritch horrors. And then sail back, triumphant, with my salvaged gains of a time lost to the apocalypse.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
If you really want to doompill, America can barely teach people english, much less a second language.
As much as I wouldn't mind hearing French or German in casual parlance in my day to day wanderings, I think we've got a ways to go.
(I hate the New York Times and expended an unholy amount of work trying to find an archived version of that article.)
Also, there are alot of historical reasons as to why second languages were stamped out.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
The funny thing is, that's not necessarily true. They make a point in the book that the tele-matter drive that allows Theseus and the explorer probes to pull off it's bullshit was enough of a surprise that it caught Rorschach with it's pants down.
So it's technically not a complete one-sided stomp. Score one for consciousness, atleast.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
Hah. It's funny; while I do indeed like Blindsight(I still find it a fun read), I've never actually agreed with the take as presented in the book. It's always good to remember that the PhD he has in Marine Biology, and while that gives him some chop, he's nowhere near an actual neurologist, and even when I first read Blindsight, I could poke holes in a few things just on pondering it for a while.
(He says, arrogantly, having neither a PhD or degree focused in matters of the brain.)
In alot of ways, Watts reminds me of Michael Crichton, who would basically stumble across a bunch of neat ideas among various scientific disciplines, autistically obsess over them for a bit, and then stitch them all together into a cohesive whole.
(And I know I just likely threw at least one Peter Watts fan into a vitriolic rage at the comparison.)
And as fun as I find the idea of actual, science-based vampires as the way Watts presents them... he goes far, far too much into passing off thier neurological capabilities as 'fucking magic'. It gets even worse in the sequel, imho.
And if you've ever read any of his other novels, you wouldn't have to guess, you'd know - he's basically a full on, 10/10 raging misanthrop, with a weird obsession about praising China.
Mind, it's been a while since I delved deep into his stuff. Don't know if his attitude has changed any over time. I doubt it.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
I'd be curious about your review on Blindsight. I'm rather fond of the book in question, so I'd be interested in reading your take on it.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
It's actually quite the opposite.
Vtubing, I'd say, tends to lean more centric overall - if anything, recent attempts to try and make Vtubing more 'woke' or drag them into the cultural war have been received roughly akin to a wet fart. It's a weirdly meritocratic, and the benefits of a Vtubing avatar pushing forward toward anonymity means that they have less fear overall voicing thier opinions on things without having to worry about receiving censorship.
Conversely, the Vtubers that are rather left leaning have no fear whatsoever making hay about that - inevitably, they'll have some blow-up or drama or whatnot and then it's masks off. So grifters inevitably get found out, while others just blithly drift along doing thier own thing.
Now, having said that - Pippa gets glazed as 'alt-right' more than she deserves, mostly because the overton window has shifted so badly that someone talking like they're posting on 4chan pre-2016 is going to get people flocking to them in releif to get away from the overall cultural longhouse, so to speak. So while she can be spicy, if you're someone who's been following her for a long period of time, you've probably noticed that she's been purposefully dialing things back, not for herself per se but because she wants to save all her friends the grief and aggravation of dealing with Pippa being a little unhinged. She's quite the sweetheart like that.
Now, there are a few other talents that are actually what people think Pippa is, but I'm not gonna say who they are.
Also, Phase Connect is... weird. That would require a thread on it's lonesome.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
Well, yes.
But there's an arguement to be made that even the common grunt wants to be a Warrior, despite not being one. It's an aspirational goal.
A minor example thereof, from what I've heard, is that the special forces operationg during the GWOT had relaxed grooming standards to better fit in with the locals(long beards and whatnot). And the common grunts bitched about it cause they wanted to look like the high speed low drag guys, and people in charge gradually relented.
So, yeah. You're going to have the bulk of your army/military be common grunts. But that doesn't mean they don't want to be a Warrior as opposed to said grunt.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
It's not as if Hebert limits this to fighting, either. One of the consistent themes in Dune is that humans need explicit pressure of one kind or another to excel beyond their limits. 'Do not create a machine in the image of a man's mind' is no different an aphorism than 'God made Arrakis to train the faithful'.
Grant_us_eyes
1mo ago
Depends how you define the term 'warrior'.
Wikipedia: 'A warrior is a guardian specializing in combat or warfare, especially within the context of a tribal or clan-based warrior culture society that recognizes a separate warrior aristocracy, class, or caste.'
Okay, fine. When you think of the term 'warrior', one figure that comes to mind is the Samurai; landed lords, skilled in warfare, but also educated in politics as well as more intellectual pursuits. Knights, in the European tradition, were likely similar.
(And, yes, I'm sure there's people more educated in this that could correct me. I'm not going for historical accuracy; I'm going for modern perception.)
So when people say they want a Warrior when it comes to killing, they're saying they want their killers smart, intelligent, with a broad depth of education and eclectic skill.
To use a more immediate, modern example, Mike Vining comes across as pretty smart cookie, and if you called him a warrior, I doubt many would argue.
I fucking hate the internet. People refuse to do thier due dillagence, spouting off uniformed one-offs to generate click-revenues without doing thier goddamn due dillage and include some fucking references.
Yes, I'm ranting. Why? Because of one-off remarks on twitter claiming '"Massive investment in AI contributed basically zero to US economic growth last year," per Goldman Sachs'
Clearly, this is a big deal. Quite the claim. Wonderful. Delightful. You'd think they'd have the decency to actually include a fucking link to the article claiming this, but no. More slop for the midwits.
This did not satisfy me. So, I went sluthing, and found the article that sources the claim, which is... a goddamn video interview.
For fuck's sake.
But no. The wizard is undetered. Thankfully, my stubborness in the face of video essays means I have have semi-reliable sources for grabbing youtube transcripts, which I promptly did so to find the money quote. Which I will share for you now;
Interviewer: What surprised you and what didn't in 2025?
Jan Hatzius: Yeah, what surprised us was that the increase in tariffs was bigger than what we had in our baseline assumption, closer to our our risk case, but uh definitely a more pervasive increase in in tariffs.
And that I think explains why US growth was was weaker. The the the shock was bigger. But if I step back from the specific numbers, I think the title of our outlook going into 2025, which was tailwinds, probably Trump tariffs, held up reasonably well. [...] Second driver of growth in 2026 is the fiscal boost. The tax cuts in the one big beautiful bill act which are taking effect mainly in the first half of 2026.
And there's an an aspect here of full expensing of plant and equipment which is going to have a positive impact on the corporate sector and probably on business investment. Tax refunds for households are going to be quite a bit higher than normal. That should support consumer spending. And you know, we're estimating that fiscal policy adds a half to 3/4 of a percentage point to growth in the first half of this year.
And then lastly, financial conditions have been easing as we've gone through most of 2025, at least post liberation day. And that's been for a variety of reasons, but in part because the Fed's been cutting interest rates. And that impulse to growth is also probably going to be most visible in early 2026. So all of that gives us a an above consensus uh growth estimate.
You'll note that one uh one item that may be missing from this list is AI investment. Uh we don't actually view AI investment as strongly growth positive.
I think there's a lot of misreporting actually of the impact that AI investment had on US GDP growth in 2025 and it's much smaller than is often perceived because most equipment most AI equipment is imported and that means there's a positive entry in the investment line but that's offset by a negative entry in the net net exports line And a lot of the AI investment that we're seeing in the US adds to Taiwanese GDP and it adds to Korean GDP but not really that much to US GDP.
Interviewer: Can I just pause there for a moment because at your point and I think this is in the forecast as well is that basically AI investment has been negligible to US GDP growth in 2025. Is that a fair assessment?
JH: Yes. Basically zero. Basically zero.
Interviewer: That seems completely counter to the narrative we read almost every day in financial media. What we hear talked about AI capex and boosting and how that's it's basically supporting the US economy through tariff headwinds and otherwise. Where is the disconnect between the reporting and what you're saying here?
JH: Well, again, I think some people forget that you need to look not just at investment but also at net exports. just from an from a GDP accounting perspective. There's another more technical point which is that some of the AI investment as the AI investment directly in semiconductors isn't actually classified as investment in the national income and product accounts. It's classified as intermediate inputs. So the the national income and product accounts miss that part of investment spending. So we've talked about the the true GDP impact which is still very small but positive positive contributor to growth in in 2025 and then the measured GDP impact which is literally we estimate uh zero.
Interviewer: Okay. I think that's just an incredibly important point to underscore and take forward. And then in 26 you estimate slight increase there as investment comes more online.
JH: We do. We do, but it's still pretty small. I mean, the the the significance of AI and the AI trade and, you know, none none of what I'm saying means that I don't think AI is important, right? It's I think it's very important and it's obviously very important for financial markets, but the specific impulse from AI investment on GDP is still going to be pretty small. Although I do think it's going to be positive to a limited degree this year.
Please excuse any odd errors in the transcript taken straight from youtube. People's direct quotes can sometimes translate oddly to text. Some of the interview has been excised for brevity, as marked by '[...]'
I have suffered through find all of this information, and now you must suffer through reading it. The above discussion can be taken almost straight from the start of the video, should you wish to double-check the above quotes.
And I note all of this above to venture to wonder if we'll see, if not a bubble popping on AI this year, atleast some severe evaporative cooling. It's something to question by this point, but it's always good to recall that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
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