Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
PaperclipPerfector
1mo ago
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Transnational Thursday for November 7, 2024
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Notes -
I see a lot of discussion here about Ukraine and the future of the conflict, touching on the different parties' interests, positions, negotiating leverage, etc. I'll admit that I often just skim them and don't dive in, but from what I've seen, I don't think there's a lot of discussion of the Center for American Security1 plan. I only mention it because it came up in another recent William Spaniel video, post-election. For those who don't know, William Spaniel is an associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh, focusing on the game theory of interstate conflict/bargaining, and he also has a relatively prolific youtube channel. I've been watching it for a while, well before the war stuff mostly took over, just interested in his game theory videos and how to apply that lens to thinking about war. In any event, he doesn't seem to be pro-Trump at all; I'd say he's somewhat anti-Trump, but definitely not rabidly so.
In the linked video, he talks about the developments in Ukraine over the last few months, saying that it is rather plausible to believe that both the Kursk offensive and the recent Russian acceleration could be chalked up to the possibility of an incoming Trump administration, which has stated that it wants to end the war posthaste. Of course, the typical response to the Trump administration's stated goal is that things don't happen just because
Prime MinstersPresidents are very keen on it. Neville Chamberlain was very keen on peace (also). And then, depending on the valence of the speaker, they usually assume that this means that Trump will have to throw America's lot in with the Russians, stop supporting Ukraine, and force them to acquiesce to a peace deal. However, Spaniel points out that if this CFAS plan is the route Trump chooses to go, he does have other tools in the toolbox.My summary of his summary is that Trump can essentially pick any resolution that is at least plausibly in the middle and then use the stick on both sides. If Ukraine doesn't agree to whatever Trump has decreed, then Trump will drop military support for Ukraine. If Russia doesn't agree to whatever Trump has decreed, then Trump will flood Ukraine with even more and better weapons. It's like an attempt to make a reverse prisoners' dilemma. It's not immediately clear how to think through all the plausible negotiating developments, especially Russia's possible options for escalation, and one would have to be somewhat steeped in Spaniel's lines on maps lore to really feel how intuitively plausible it is, but suffice to say that Spaniel, himself, mostly treats it as though, from a mathematical standpoint, it's really plausible enough that he didn't even really go into any caveats (at least in this video) about the difficulties that might arise in the negotiation. He almost treated as though Trump really could simply declare what the resolution will be (so long as it's sufficiently in some range), and the dual threat of America's mighty power (or lack thereof) really could simply make it so (likely modulo a minor amount of horsetrading). It's in that context that he describes the theory of why such a plan, and the prior probability of Trump winning the election, could have played a role in the two sides' strategies over the last few months.
What says The Motte? Is he giving the idea too much credence? Has he missed something? Why hasn't this sort of plan already happened?2 If it does happen, what sort of video will Spaniel be making in a few months after it's done? Will he be talking about what types of commitments will need to be made to "keep it so"? What would those look like?
1 - Part of the "America First Policy Initiative" think tank, if such a term can be applied; not to be confused with the Center for New American Security
2 - I can think of a few theories... perhaps a divided Congress prevented the dual threats from being credible; perhaps only
NixonTrump can go toChinaRussia and credibly threaten to really turn up the heat; perhaps Russia does have plausible escalation strategies to defang the threat...This makes a lot of sense to me, particularly on the Ukraine side. On the Russian side, I'm not so sure, and in particularly I'm not so sure that both sides will share an understanding of what is a reasonable compromise.
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In other international news that totally-isn't-a-consequence of the US election shaping state decisions, Qatar has agreed to remove Hamas from its territory after Hamas refused to conduct genuine hostage, ceasefire negotiations (as characterized by an anonymous US official).
This is a significant development if true, as it represents a significant drop in Arab political support for Hamas inclusion into a post-Gaza-War unified Palestine government, a point of post-war tension with Israel, and likely signals the further political decline of the Palestinians as a key factor in Arab politics as the loss of one of their key sponsors / sympathizers will likely see Hamas turn more towards Iran, and thus burn further bridges with the Arab states concerned about Iran and its axis of resistance.
For those unaware, Qatar has been the host to the political wing of Hamas for some times. Qatar-Hamas relations more or less started in earnest after Hamas's take over of Gaza in the mid-2000s, and in 2012 Hamas set up a political office in Qatar. Due to Qatar's role as a 'negotiates with everyone' regional diplomatic power, Qatar is a country the Israelis do not generally conduct assassinations / targetted killings, and so Hamas was able to operate with... not impunity, but relative safety and patronage. While this was supported by the Obama-era US and Israel to facilitate negotiations between Israel and Hamas, Qatar has provided its own support, including lots of money (well over $1 billion USD over the years, 'for the Palestinians' but via Hamas), safe shop, but also a very supportive media relationship with Qatari-owned Al Jazeera news. Setting aside cases of Jazeera journalists outright supporting Hamas, the Qatari line via Al Jazeera is one of the most public and influential Arab media / information influence shapers for the pro-Hamas / anti-Israeli side of the current conflict.
While the Hamas military and political wings are not synonymous, and the political wing in Qatar likely were not directly aware of Oct 7 (because why wouldn't they be spied on intently), the Hamas political wing being stationed in Qatar represents something of a last-stand of Palestinian resistance politics in the Arab world. The various Palestinian violent resistance movements across history have progressively gotten less support / more opposition from regional Arab states after various misteps, including Black September, support for Saddam during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and others. The Qataris were, to a real degree, the last major Gulf Arab state both willing to host Hamas and able to sponsor them... and whose hosting provided protection from Israeli retaliation.
With Qatar ejecting the Hamas political leadership during the Oct 7 war, that protection is ending. Hamas leaders will almost certainly seek alternative patronage support in other countries... but the list of those (a) willing to host, (b) who Israel isn't willing to attack into anyway, and (c) willing to protect Hamas if Israel tries is very small, and mostly non-Arab.
Especially since there is a not-very-subtle US pressure in play.
This doesn't mean a country like, say, Turkey couldn't do so anyway, but in all likelihood the confluence of 'willing to sponsor Hamas in the Oct 7 war' and 'doesn't care about US pressure' is probably Iran... and honestly, either Iran or Turkey (though less Turkey) demonstrate the same point: the Palestinian resistance issue is transitioning from an Arab-led issue, to an issue led by Arab-rivals.
This doesn't mean a sharp or sudden change in political cultures or such is imminent- al Jazeera will still be running pro-Palestinian / anti-Israeli issues for years to come- but as states change their priorities, and their patronage networks, so do their information efforts and priorities. It's been said before the Palestinians never lose an opportunity to lose an opportunity, and in this case the opportunity lost was Qatari sponsorship.
As for why now? Well, as hinted above, probably US election political politics. The US message quoted above was 'weeks ago' for an issue apparent months ago, but the President coming in was only determined days ago. How Trump might have approached the issue likely had a non-trivial influence on the Qatari decision.
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https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/07/europe/israel-soccer-fans-attacked-amsterdam-intl-hnk/index.html
So there's that. The EU definitely has a problem. To which it is oblivious.
Can someone put together an actual timeline of events here? It is proving very difficult to determine from the articles I've read. Those critical of the maccabi depend on them doing genocidal chants, vandalism, and low level violence prior to the game. Those staunchly on the other side are relying heavily on this being "preplanned" but the only pre planned attack evidence seems to be some messages on social media that they were sent the same day as the attacks? So presumably after the prior maccabi provocation? It's not clear to me.
Obviously mob violence is not justified by chants and vandalism, but if you fly into some other city and stir things up, it's not a pogrom or fitting with a "Europe has an antisemitism problem" when psycho locals escalate. This story seems hopelessly distorted in the news coverage.
I don't know who's right or who's wrong, but the article didn't even say if the Israeli team won the game (which would seem like an obvious trigger for the rioting, football fans being football fans).
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They're oblivious to more than one problem. I don't know if they realize what effect these sort of "now that this affects Jewish people, it will be acknowledged as a problem" proclamations could have.
Jews have been attacked by Arabs in Europe for decades, there were the Ilan and Sarah Halimi killings, the Toulouse school attack, various firebombing attempts on synagogues. Nothing much changed. The only difference is that the antisemitic motive is (usually) acknowledged, but this doesn’t actually change policy.
The other difference is before it could be - and usually were - dismissed as random one-off event, that just happened to be against Jews, but does not represent any systemic problem. This event is much bigger and very hard to dismiss as an "action of a lone-wolf crazed individual" - it's clear there is a strong, massive, violent anti-Semitic movement in Europe, and it's ready to roll out Kristallnachts on demand. They will try to dismiss it anyway, but I think they are starting to realize how big of a problem they have got, and that's it is not a Jewish problem but their problem.
If they do try to dismiss it, I think they will go with the “this is just standard football hooliganism, which often has an ethnic tinge and involves physical assaults and rioting” excuse.
I'm sure they'd try that but I hope somebody there is still sane enough to realize a violent coordinated movement of this size which is controlled by somebody other than the government is kinda problem for them. Before it's too late.
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The people who tend to be in charge where these things happen i.e leftist mayors, aren't oblivious, they just don't see it as much of a problem.
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Some news stories I'm tracking; thoughts welcome on any of them, particularly the first two.
South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600-700 tonnes of rice to North Korea, a salary of US$2,000 for North Korean soldiers deployed in Ukraine, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula. With around 10,000 North Korean troops expected to be deployed to Ukraine, this could generate over US$200 million annually for Pyongyang. The 4 million tonnes of grains that North Korea says it produces per year are actually about 1 million tonnes short of what it needs to feed the country.
Six people have been killed in NY after a "subway surfing" trend, where people get on top of subway trends, has been going "viral". The number is really small, but the vector "social media leads people to do really stupid shit" seems like it could scale (anorexia and tumblr, lying flat in China, etc.) Admittedly, the subway surfing in question looks pretty lit.
There is a crunch in the transformer industry
Canada's National Cyber Threat Assessment classifies India a "state adversary"
198 killed, 111 injured in separate terrorist attacks in Pakistan during October.
Volcano erupted in Indonesia, killing ten people (and thousands will be relocated), but the region has a lot of volcanoes and a lot of people.
Myanmar <> India border conflict. Over 200 people have died, 60,000 displaced, and 30 km of fencing completed. The influx of refugees from Myanmar, over 60,000 in Mizoram and 5,000 in Manipur,
The Houthis have developed what they call a "marching submarine", something between a moveable landmine and an unmanned submarine.
Veterinarians back mass testing of milk for avian flu
Egypt hosted Fatah <> Hamas post war Gaza talks
US Deploys B-52 Bombers and Missile Destroyers in Warning to Iran Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Another Hezbollah commander killed
Houthis pledge to continue red sea attacks despite Israeli asset sales. They allege that Israeli shipping companies are transferring assets to avoid detection.
Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in Iran, damaging their missile program and air defenses.
Israel Ends Agreement With UN Agency Providing Aid in Gaza
Israel has ended the agreement enabling the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees to operate, citing alleged infiltration by Hamas, a claim the agency denies.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and appointed Israel Katz as his successor. The move comes following open disagreements between Netanyahu and Gallant over the management of Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Thousands protested the move in Tel Aviv
Palestinians say Israel struck Gaza clinic during polio campaign; army denies it
Lebanon filed a formal complaint against Israel at the United Nations following deadly explosions caused by rigged communication devices. Shows how impotent Lebanon is imho
The Philippine military has opened two weeks of combat drills in the South China Sea, with more than 3,000 personnel participating in maneuvers that include seizing an island. The drills have raised tensions with China, which claims most of the South China Sea.
Newly revealed documents show that Russia's proposed agreement to end the special operation in 2022 included giving up Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, reducing Ukraine's military size, prohibiting missile development, joining NATO
Mariana Katzarova, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Russia, reported on the widespread and systematic use of torture by Russian authorities to oppress and control society. The torture has worsened during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with thousands of Ukrainian civilians detained, deported, and tortured in Russian prisons. Despite the shocking human rights violations, Katzarova hopes for a constructive dialogue with Russian officials to address the issues. Note that the source is Voice of America; a US state-controlled outlet.
Russian operatives shipped two incendiary devices in attempts to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft heading to the U.S. and Canada. DHL was used to ship electric massagers containing a magnesium-based flammable substance as part of a covert Russian sabotage campaign. Seems like an escalation of US<>Russia tensions.
There are ongoing jihadist insurgencies in Chad, Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger. These are generally attacking Christians, causing large population movements,
Chaucer has launched a new nuclear insurance policy called CyNuC to provide insurance cover for cyberattacks on nuclear power plants. It doesn't include war and hostile state-sponsored action though. I thought this was cool.
Sudan conflict spirals into civil war, if it hadn't already
The US State Department is giving some assistance to Somalia's police to build counterterrorism capacity. state-funded radio show in Poland replaced all its presenters with experimental AI hosts. This initially increased listenership but then sparked backlash.
Another case of the new, more infectious mpox strain (clade 1b) has been detected in the UK, bringing the total confirmed number of cases to four. The cases are all from the same household
Norway invests ~22M USD in global pandemic preparedness
Global pandemic accord negotiations continue
Scientists track emergence of novel H5N1 flu reassortant in Cambodia The novel reassortant virus combines genes from two H5N1 clades and has worrisome mutations, including one linked to adaptation to mammals and airborne transmission. This is kind of the next worrying step between on the way between now and H5N1 being a global pandemic.
UK government to create surveillance system for future pandemics
UK raises avian influenza risk level to high
The US carried a test of its Minuteman III missile, to showcase its nuclear readiness
surely more?
maybe kilotonnes
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per soldier I guess
Makes much more sense, still kinda blows my mind.
Looking into this a bit more, using a stack-based fermi estimation tool I like
So Russia is giving 3-5% of North Korea's caloric intake, and NK previously was short maybe 5-10%. Somewhat wild.
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Looking at the second link about subway surfing, I can't get over how dumb these kids are. We really live in completely different worlds.
Tommy G does great work, thanks for making me aware of him. I just went onto his 'Blood Money: Inside Dallas' Underground Economy' video, it's staggering how these pimps are incapable of spitting out 10 words without 'ya know what I mean?' or 'you know what I'm saying?'. They act in such disgusting ways, practicing something they unironically call 'baboon pimping'. Veteran racists couldn't make this up. This pimp starts shrieking profanities at some fat black whore wandering outside the car the journalist was in, shouting continually and unintelligibly for 30 seconds straight.
What a cultural blemish on the world. What a legal blemish, whores from Oklahomah come to Dallas because the police are too lazy to shut down this massive prostitute drive-through.
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I have seen claims that the norks doing the actual fighting will see a fraction of that while Kim takes the lion's share, but even a fraction of that will go a long way in NK.
Except what could they possibly spend that money on and where? Legally and at home, that is?
From what I read, NK has a bustling grey market.
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Of course, the media, having gotten the whiff of somebody doing something incredibly stupid and dangerous, does the obvious thing - tries to make it look cool to as many people as possible so that they would be inspired to do the same, while pretending to moralize about it. It's impossible to hate them enough.
Ross Scott beat the media to the punch by years, however.
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Addon - NY post isn't reliable, but the story is too good. NK soldiers are [getting hooked on porn](https://nypost.com/2024/11/05/world-news/us-cant-confirm-north-korean-soldiers-in-russia-hooked-on-porn-after-getting-internet-access/.com
The India-Canada relationship has reached a proper boiling point, and the feeling is mutual.
India's frictions with Canada go back 40 years, during Senior Trudeau's reign. The cracks began when Canada refused to extradite or prosecute the terrorists who hijacked Air India Flight 182 (The 2nd most lethal aviation terror attack after 9/11). Since then, Canada has accepted a steady stream of India's-most-wanted, and developed a 'healthy' underworld of Sikh radicals. For the longest time, India took a 'not my problem' approach to this issue, and it became dormant.
That is until Trudeau started acting in a frankly baffling manner that still confuses Indians. First, he invited a wanted terrorist (now refugee in Canada) to be part of his delegation during his visit to India. It's the kind of stuff that propagates Canada's image as an unserious nation. Then he began directly interfering in Indian politics. Then to put the cherry on top, he visited while effective performing a skit about the adventures of brown-face trudeau. It's hard to explain, Trudeau was India's main meme for months. He is now India's unanimously top-hated world leader, more than legitimate adversaries like Xi or Imran Khan. By this point, Hindus were reporting frequent harassment in Canada, Punjab police began tracing crime rings back to Canada and Trudeau's condescending responses made India abandon its 'not my problem' policy on Canada.
The Nijjar fiasco projected this conflict into the stratosphere, but the Camel's back has been broken for a few years now.
This is no over-reaction. The Liberal (Trudeau)-NDP alliance and Modi's India are now permanent adversaries. Canada is headed for a landslide conservative win. The Conservatives & India have historically maintained a neutral stance with each other. And with Trump coming back, I am optimistic that things will quiet down on the India- Canada front. But yeah, we aren't becoming friends again. Within India, the overwhelming opinion on the Canada-Nijjar fiasco is : "We didn't do it. But if we did, that's even better." So, Modi has no incentive to back down. This is amazing PR for him.
It's a classic for a reason
“You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbors. You know, eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard.” ― Hillary Rodham Clinton
This is an odd one. A sub-ethnic war (it's active war between 2 tribal groups in the mountains) broke out in India (for 3 years now), and has now spilled over to Myanmar. The refugees are less of concern. The Indian Govt. has done very little to control this vigilante mob of war criminals on either side. The standard thing would be to declare emergency, crack down hard and engage in violent suppression of this separatist uprising. But in the aftermath of Kashmir's first democratic elections since Sec 370 was revoked, Modi has been looking to portray a 'stable India' image. Both sub-ethnicities are minorities with little say in national politics. So, the center has taken a 'not our problem' approach to it. Frankly, it is reckless and embarrassing.
I'm presuming they're migrating to Southern Europe. Marseille, Naples & the Mediterranean are already flooded with immigrants. It's surprising how little right-wing leaders like Meloni have done to limit incoming refugees.
Yes, but also within Africa. Within Africa migration is much easier than moving to another continent.
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Somehow I doubt that either the Russians or the Norks would provide Nork soldiers with unsupervised/unmonitored smartphones with unlimited browser access. Why would they be given smartphones anyway?
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This is likely driven by the realization with the assassination last year of a Sikh activist in Canada that India is not just a wholly subservient partner to the US world order but has its own policy goals that it's willing to defect on its "allies" to achieve.
On another note regarding that document, I find it funny how these documents are talking about how others are doing offensive cyber ops but us here? All defensive, of course.
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Who else is going to hack nuclear power plants? Typical insurance shenanigans.
I don't remember ransomware hitting a power plant specifically, but didn't an east coast gas pipeline network get shut down by one? It's definitely not inconceivable if scammers are willing to paint a big enough target on themselves, or aren't quite aware of what fish they've got on the hook (because they hit the off-site power-sales and distribution office, not the computers for the actual control rods or something)
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I posted this in the main week thread, but feel I probably should have posted it here instead.
/
In non-American election news of note, the German governing coalition has collapsed with German Chancellor Scholz (SDP party) sacked his Finance Minister (FDP), setting the stage for a snap election in the next few months, possibly as early as January.
The collapse occurred for typically German reasons, which is to say over money and budgets and deficit spending. Specifically, how to cover a 60-billion euro hole in the budget after a German court in November 2023 annulled a plan to repurpose COVID emergency funds, when more money is needed to conduct domestic stimulus / address EU issues / further support Ukraine. Scholz and other members of the coalition wanted to suspend the German balanced budget amendment, i.e. the 2009 debt break amendment to the constitution. The FDP, a more neoliberal minority member of the coalition but who had the finance minister portfolio, refused. Scholz had an exceptionally emotive press conference yesterday, and now the issue is turning over to the timing of the vote of no confidence to bring forth a new election.
Yes, Germany- the country which helped replace multiple governments in southern Europe in the name of enforcing austerity and balanced budgets- just saw its own government collapse over deficit spending. There are jokes to be made here.
While this issue was German internal politics in nature, however, the timing was almost certainly a consequence of the US election, which is to say we could blame Donald Trump. The issues are not new and have been building for a year, while German election results in recent elections have shown a rise of the right that worries the German establishment whose coalition is as much to keep them out as it is to keep itself in. The confluence or risks was acceptable while Biden was in the white house, and might have continued had Harris won.
The victory of Donald Trump in the American election, however, provided new future risks. If the previous German expected election cycle occurred in OCT 25, that would be the better part of a year in which budget-locked Germany couldn't maneuver diplomatically on any major financial issue, even as Trump is almost certainly going to make that a major issue. Further, Scholz would have been in a lame duck position as the months ticked by, unable to do much and no one necessarily expecting his continuation into 2026.
By quickening the election to as early as January, right as Trump transitions into office, Scholz will (possibly) mitigate those risks, while also (probably) benefit from substantial anti-Trump sentiment in Germany that will probably support the SDP more than it's further-right rivals. While Scholz himself may / may not be the leader of the next government, the election may break free the FDP log jam on deficit spending.
Which, to put it lightly, will have major political (and social) implications for not just Germany, but Europe as a whole.
German political power in Europe- overt and soft- has for a decade and a half been limited as much by German budgetary restrictions as by German reputational inclination towards fiscal restraint. But if Germany is willing to spend big, this will be a tidal wave of money no one else in Europe would be able to match, which no existing systems were expecting to absorb and utilize, and so a lot of money which many in the European Union will seek to channel. This is both in terms of other countries trying to get what benefits they can out of spending to benefit their own needs, whether that's debt cancelation or military investments or so on, but also at the EU level, where Germany will have a lot more purse for a lot more power of the purse. There have long been dreams of German-financed financial consolidation in the EU that were economically impossible so long as Germany barred itself from funding them- but if the debt break barier is removed, then it's 'merely' a very difficult lobbying effort.
It will also create an interesting context for other countries seeking to shape the incoming government. In 2021, for example, remember that the Belarus migration crisis was itself timed to the German government formation, and which led to a partial rapproachment between PIS-Poland and Germany due to Polish tactics to force back migrants aiming to go to Germany (and thus the enabler-governments behind those migrants willingness to poke Germany in the eye at a senstivie time). Expect non-trivial cross-europe lobbying and advocating within Germany as well, as countries try to enable foreign voting from their territory (if they think ti might benefit) / mobilize expatriats / good old fashioned election propaganda and social media and newfangled AI-propaganda influence efforts.
None of this is a guarantee, mind you. The German election could be more divided and create a weaker government rather than a stronger one. There's no guarantee that the FDP fiscal log jam will be expelled. The government might be 'worse' by whatever standard of good you choose.
But this could be significant that will impact the next years of European politics.
It's a good speech. But it doesn't accept the concept of tradeoffs between climate goals, social goals, defense goals: min 15:
Makes sense that the FPD would be against it.
Honestly he is taking the moral high ground, but it's kinda fake. I expect it to be convincing to the German people though.
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The latest Forsa/INSA polls from 05.11 give the following ratings (averaged):
I assume both the SPD and the FDP will lose a bit of popularity after Scholz's gambit, but assuming the numbers remain stable, what are the possible coalitions? GroKo (C*U + SPD) is an obvious choice, but what if the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle? I assume that they have to somehow assemble a coalition that is bigger than the C*U, but who can they turn to?
AfD is firewalled
FDP is the reason why their coalition fell apart
SPD + The Greens is just 26%
SPD + The Greens + The Left is 29%
SPD + BSW + The Left is 27% and I doubt these two red parties will agree to work together
SPD + The Greens + BSW is 33%, but The Greens hate BSW, plus this will lose to C*U + FDP or C*U + The Greens
C*U + BSW? No less reasonable than C*U + SPD, and Wagenknecht can't complain about playing second fiddle.
That's not even 40% of the vote?
As long as FDP, Linke + Others stay below 5% each while still adding up to almost 20% it might be enough.
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Don't know how they do things in Germany exactly, but votes don't necessarily translate to seats 1:1. It's been a while since I bothered voting but 30+% was often enough to form a stable government, depending on how the competition did.
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