Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/07/europe/israel-soccer-fans-attacked-amsterdam-intl-hnk/index.html
So there's that. The EU definitely has a problem. To which it is oblivious.
They're oblivious to more than one problem. I don't know if they realize what effect these sort of "now that this affects Jewish people, it will be acknowledged as a problem" proclamations could have.
Jews have been attacked by Arabs in Europe for decades, there were the Ilan and Sarah Halimi killings, the Toulouse school attack, various firebombing attempts on synagogues. Nothing much changed. The only difference is that the antisemitic motive is (usually) acknowledged, but this doesn’t actually change policy.
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The people who tend to be in charge where these things happen i.e leftist mayors, aren't oblivious, they just don't see it as much of a problem.
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Some news stories I'm tracking; thoughts welcome on any of them, particularly the first two.
South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600-700 tonnes of rice to North Korea, a salary of US$2,000 for North Korean soldiers deployed in Ukraine, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula. With around 10,000 North Korean troops expected to be deployed to Ukraine, this could generate over US$200 million annually for Pyongyang. The 4 million tonnes of grains that North Korea says it produces per year are actually about 1 million tonnes short of what it needs to feed the country.
Six people have been killed in NY after a "subway surfing" trend, where people get on top of subway trends, has been going "viral". The number is really small, but the vector "social media leads people to do really stupid shit" seems like it could scale (anorexia and tumblr, lying flat in China, etc.) Admittedly, the subway surfing in question looks pretty lit.
There is a crunch in the transformer industry
Canada's National Cyber Threat Assessment classifies India a "state adversary"
198 killed, 111 injured in separate terrorist attacks in Pakistan during October.
Volcano erupted in Indonesia, killing ten people (and thousands will be relocated), but the region has a lot of volcanoes and a lot of people.
Myanmar <> India border conflict. Over 200 people have died, 60,000 displaced, and 30 km of fencing completed. The influx of refugees from Myanmar, over 60,000 in Mizoram and 5,000 in Manipur,
The Houthis have developed what they call a "marching submarine", something between a moveable landmine and an unmanned submarine.
Veterinarians back mass testing of milk for avian flu
Egypt hosted Fatah <> Hamas post war Gaza talks
US Deploys B-52 Bombers and Missile Destroyers in Warning to Iran Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Another Hezbollah commander killed
Houthis pledge to continue red sea attacks despite Israeli asset sales. They allege that Israeli shipping companies are transferring assets to avoid detection.
Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in Iran, damaging their missile program and air defenses.
Israel Ends Agreement With UN Agency Providing Aid in Gaza
Israel has ended the agreement enabling the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees to operate, citing alleged infiltration by Hamas, a claim the agency denies.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and appointed Israel Katz as his successor. The move comes following open disagreements between Netanyahu and Gallant over the management of Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Thousands protested the move in Tel Aviv
Palestinians say Israel struck Gaza clinic during polio campaign; army denies it
Lebanon filed a formal complaint against Israel at the United Nations following deadly explosions caused by rigged communication devices. Shows how impotent Lebanon is imho
The Philippine military has opened two weeks of combat drills in the South China Sea, with more than 3,000 personnel participating in maneuvers that include seizing an island. The drills have raised tensions with China, which claims most of the South China Sea.
Newly revealed documents show that Russia's proposed agreement to end the special operation in 2022 included giving up Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, reducing Ukraine's military size, prohibiting missile development, joining NATO
Mariana Katzarova, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Russia, reported on the widespread and systematic use of torture by Russian authorities to oppress and control society. The torture has worsened during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with thousands of Ukrainian civilians detained, deported, and tortured in Russian prisons. Despite the shocking human rights violations, Katzarova hopes for a constructive dialogue with Russian officials to address the issues. Note that the source is Voice of America; a US state-controlled outlet.
Russian operatives shipped two incendiary devices in attempts to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft heading to the U.S. and Canada. DHL was used to ship electric massagers containing a magnesium-based flammable substance as part of a covert Russian sabotage campaign. Seems like an escalation of US<>Russia tensions.
There are ongoing jihadist insurgencies in Chad, Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger. These are generally attacking Christians, causing large population movements,
Chaucer has launched a new nuclear insurance policy called CyNuC to provide insurance cover for cyberattacks on nuclear power plants. It doesn't include war and hostile state-sponsored action though. I thought this was cool.
Sudan conflict spirals into civil war, if it hadn't already
The US State Department is giving some assistance to Somalia's police to build counterterrorism capacity. state-funded radio show in Poland replaced all its presenters with experimental AI hosts. This initially increased listenership but then sparked backlash.
Another case of the new, more infectious mpox strain (clade 1b) has been detected in the UK, bringing the total confirmed number of cases to four. The cases are all from the same household
Norway invests ~22M USD in global pandemic preparedness
Global pandemic accord negotiations continue
Scientists track emergence of novel H5N1 flu reassortant in Cambodia The novel reassortant virus combines genes from two H5N1 clades and has worrisome mutations, including one linked to adaptation to mammals and airborne transmission. This is kind of the next worrying step between on the way between now and H5N1 being a global pandemic.
UK government to create surveillance system for future pandemics
UK raises avian influenza risk level to high
The US carried a test of its Minuteman III missile, to showcase its nuclear readiness
Looking at the second link about subway surfing, I can't get over how dumb these kids are. We really live in completely different worlds.
Tommy G does great work, thanks for making me aware of him. I just went onto his 'Blood Money: Inside Dallas' Underground Economy' video, it's staggering how these pimps are incapable of spitting out 10 words without 'ya know what I mean?' or 'you know what I'm saying?'. They act in such disgusting ways, practicing something they unironically call 'baboon pimping'. Veteran racists couldn't make this up. This pimp starts shrieking profanities at some fat black whore wandering outside the car the journalist was in, shouting continually and unintelligibly for 30 seconds straight.
What a cultural blemish on the world. What a legal blemish, whores from Oklahomah come to Dallas because the police are too lazy to shut down this massive prostitute drive-through.
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I have seen claims that the norks doing the actual fighting will see a fraction of that while Kim takes the lion's share, but even a fraction of that will go a long way in NK.
Except what could they possibly spend that money on and where? Legally and at home, that is?
From what I read, NK has a bustling grey market.
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Of course, the media, having gotten the whiff of somebody doing something incredibly stupid and dangerous, does the obvious thing - tries to make it look cool to as many people as possible so that they would be inspired to do the same, while pretending to moralize about it. It's impossible to hate them enough.
Ross Scott beat the media to the punch by years, however.
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Addon - NY post isn't reliable, but the story is too good. NK soldiers are [getting hooked on porn](https://nypost.com/2024/11/05/world-news/us-cant-confirm-north-korean-soldiers-in-russia-hooked-on-porn-after-getting-internet-access/.com
The India-Canada relationship has reached a proper boiling point, and the feeling is mutual.
India's frictions with Canada go back 40 years, during Senior Trudeau's reign. The cracks began when Canada refused to extradite or prosecute the terrorists who hijacked Air India Flight 182 (The 2nd most lethal aviation terror attack after 9/11). Since then, Canada has accepted a steady stream of India's-most-wanted, and developed a 'healthy' underworld of Sikh radicals. For the longest time, India took a 'not my problem' approach to this issue, and it became dormant.
That is until Trudeau started acting in a frankly baffling manner that still confuses Indians. First, he invited a wanted terrorist (now refugee in Canada) to be part of his delegation during his visit to India. It's the kind of stuff that propagates Canada's image as an unserious nation. Then he began directly interfering in Indian politics. Then to put the cherry on top, he visited while effective performing a skit about the adventures of brown-face trudeau. It's hard to explain, Trudeau was India's main meme for months. He is now India's unanimously top-hated world leader, more than legitimate adversaries like Xi or Imran Khan. By this point, Hindus were reporting frequent harassment in Canada, Punjab police began tracing crime rings back to Canada and Trudeau's condescending responses made India abandon its 'not my problem' policy on Canada.
The Nijjar fiasco projected this conflict into the stratosphere, but the Camel's back has been broken for a few years now.
This is no over-reaction. The Liberal (Trudeau)-NDP alliance and Modi's India are now permanent adversaries. Canada is headed for a landslide conservative win. The Conservatives & India have historically maintained a neutral stance with each other. And with Trump coming back, I am optimistic that things will quiet down on the India- Canada front. But yeah, we aren't becoming friends again. Within India, the overwhelming opinion on the Canada-Nijjar fiasco is : "We didn't do it. But if we did, that's even better." So, Modi has no incentive to back down. This is amazing PR for him.
It's a classic for a reason
“You can't keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbors. You know, eventually those snakes are going to turn on whoever has them in the backyard.” ― Hillary Rodham Clinton
This is an odd one. A sub-ethnic war (it's active war between 2 tribal groups in the mountains) broke out in India (for 3 years now), and has now spilled over to Myanmar. The refugees are less of concern. The Indian Govt. has done very little to control this vigilante mob of war criminals on either side. The standard thing would be to declare emergency, crack down hard and engage in violent suppression of this separatist uprising. But in the aftermath of Kashmir's first democratic elections since Sec 370 was revoked, Modi has been looking to portray a 'stable India' image. Both sub-ethnicities are minorities with little say in national politics. So, the center has taken a 'not our problem' approach to it. Frankly, it is reckless and embarrassing.
I'm presuming they're migrating to Southern Europe. Marseille, Naples & the Mediterranean are already flooded with immigrants. It's surprising how little right-wing leaders like Meloni have done to limit incoming refugees.
Yes, but also within Africa. Within Africa migration is much easier than moving to another continent.
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Somehow I doubt that either the Russians or the Norks would provide Nork soldiers with unsupervised/unmonitored smartphones with unlimited browser access. Why would they be given smartphones anyway?
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This is likely driven by the realization with the assassination last year of a Sikh activist in Canada that India is not just a wholly subservient partner to the US world order but has its own policy goals that it's willing to defect on its "allies" to achieve.
On another note regarding that document, I find it funny how these documents are talking about how others are doing offensive cyber ops but us here? All defensive, of course.
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Who else is going to hack nuclear power plants? Typical insurance shenanigans.
I don't remember ransomware hitting a power plant specifically, but didn't an east coast gas pipeline network get shut down by one? It's definitely not inconceivable if scammers are willing to paint a big enough target on themselves, or aren't quite aware of what fish they've got on the hook (because they hit the off-site power-sales and distribution office, not the computers for the actual control rods or something)
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I posted this in the main week thread, but feel I probably should have posted it here instead.
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In non-American election news of note, the German governing coalition has collapsed with German Chancellor Scholz (SDP party) sacked his Finance Minister (FDP), setting the stage for a snap election in the next few months, possibly as early as January.
The collapse occurred for typically German reasons, which is to say over money and budgets and deficit spending. Specifically, how to cover a 60-billion euro hole in the budget after a German court in November 2023 annulled a plan to repurpose COVID emergency funds, when more money is needed to conduct domestic stimulus / address EU issues / further support Ukraine. Scholz and other members of the coalition wanted to suspend the German balanced budget amendment, i.e. the 2009 debt break amendment to the constitution. The FDP, a more neoliberal minority member of the coalition but who had the finance minister portfolio, refused. Scholz had an exceptionally emotive press conference yesterday, and now the issue is turning over to the timing of the vote of no confidence to bring forth a new election.
Yes, Germany- the country which helped replace multiple governments in southern Europe in the name of enforcing austerity and balanced budgets- just saw its own government collapse over deficit spending. There are jokes to be made here.
While this issue was German internal politics in nature, however, the timing was almost certainly a consequence of the US election, which is to say we could blame Donald Trump. The issues are not new and have been building for a year, while German election results in recent elections have shown a rise of the right that worries the German establishment whose coalition is as much to keep them out as it is to keep itself in. The confluence or risks was acceptable while Biden was in the white house, and might have continued had Harris won.
The victory of Donald Trump in the American election, however, provided new future risks. If the previous German expected election cycle occurred in OCT 25, that would be the better part of a year in which budget-locked Germany couldn't maneuver diplomatically on any major financial issue, even as Trump is almost certainly going to make that a major issue. Further, Scholz would have been in a lame duck position as the months ticked by, unable to do much and no one necessarily expecting his continuation into 2026.
By quickening the election to as early as January, right as Trump transitions into office, Scholz will (possibly) mitigate those risks, while also (probably) benefit from substantial anti-Trump sentiment in Germany that will probably support the SDP more than it's further-right rivals. While Scholz himself may / may not be the leader of the next government, the election may break free the FDP log jam on deficit spending.
Which, to put it lightly, will have major political (and social) implications for not just Germany, but Europe as a whole.
German political power in Europe- overt and soft- has for a decade and a half been limited as much by German budgetary restrictions as by German reputational inclination towards fiscal restraint. But if Germany is willing to spend big, this will be a tidal wave of money no one else in Europe would be able to match, which no existing systems were expecting to absorb and utilize, and so a lot of money which many in the European Union will seek to channel. This is both in terms of other countries trying to get what benefits they can out of spending to benefit their own needs, whether that's debt cancelation or military investments or so on, but also at the EU level, where Germany will have a lot more purse for a lot more power of the purse. There have long been dreams of German-financed financial consolidation in the EU that were economically impossible so long as Germany barred itself from funding them- but if the debt break barier is removed, then it's 'merely' a very difficult lobbying effort.
It will also create an interesting context for other countries seeking to shape the incoming government. In 2021, for example, remember that the Belarus migration crisis was itself timed to the German government formation, and which led to a partial rapproachment between PIS-Poland and Germany due to Polish tactics to force back migrants aiming to go to Germany (and thus the enabler-governments behind those migrants willingness to poke Germany in the eye at a senstivie time). Expect non-trivial cross-europe lobbying and advocating within Germany as well, as countries try to enable foreign voting from their territory (if they think ti might benefit) / mobilize expatriats / good old fashioned election propaganda and social media and newfangled AI-propaganda influence efforts.
None of this is a guarantee, mind you. The German election could be more divided and create a weaker government rather than a stronger one. There's no guarantee that the FDP fiscal log jam will be expelled. The government might be 'worse' by whatever standard of good you choose.
But this could be significant that will impact the next years of European politics.
It's a good speech. But it doesn't accept the concept of tradeoffs between climate goals, social goals, defense goals: min 15:
Makes sense that the FPD would be against it.
Honestly he is taking the moral high ground, but it's kinda fake. I expect it to be convincing to the German people though.
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The latest Forsa/INSA polls from 05.11 give the following ratings (averaged):
I assume both the SPD and the FDP will lose a bit of popularity after Scholz's gambit, but assuming the numbers remain stable, what are the possible coalitions? GroKo (C*U + SPD) is an obvious choice, but what if the SPD doesn't want to play second fiddle? I assume that they have to somehow assemble a coalition that is bigger than the C*U, but who can they turn to?
AfD is firewalled
FDP is the reason why their coalition fell apart
SPD + The Greens is just 26%
SPD + The Greens + The Left is 29%
SPD + BSW + The Left is 27% and I doubt these two red parties will agree to work together
SPD + The Greens + BSW is 33%, but The Greens hate BSW, plus this will lose to C*U + FDP or C*U + The Greens
C*U + BSW? No less reasonable than C*U + SPD, and Wagenknecht can't complain about playing second fiddle.
That's not even 40% of the vote?
As long as FDP, Linke + Others stay below 5% each while still adding up to almost 20% it might be enough.
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Don't know how they do things in Germany exactly, but votes don't necessarily translate to seats 1:1. It's been a while since I bothered voting but 30+% was often enough to form a stable government, depending on how the competition did.
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