NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I don't follow your technical aside. Isn't the point of an isomorphism that all the isomorphisms are the same in the sense in which you are isomorphic?
I can prove that True|False and Yes|No are isomorphic, but I can do so in multiple ways: I can map True to Yes and False to No, or I can map True to No and False to Yes (and then show that there are respective inverses which preserve identity, obviously)
I don't understand this example, because if you have A|B, A+A = A, B+B=B, but if A+B=A then A maps to true and if A+B=B then B maps to true.
The classical-style logic in the preceding paragraph does not apply to constructivist logic used for software formalisation!
But how? Like, what is the failure mode that you might get if you try to prove the correctness of a program for which this disquisition about isomorphisms is relevant?
NunoSempere
1mo ago
the previous ones would come back?
Here I'm just speculating, but there are frictions. You can't just boot up a relatively capital intensive business just like so?
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Not an effort post, but two paragraph in a weekly brief my team writes:
In a unanimous ruling, the US Supreme Court ruled that a trucking freight broker could be sued for arranging freight shipments using trucking companies they hired negligently, e.g., ignoring red flags. This ruling upends the freight trucking industry and could push many smaller motor carriers and freight brokers out of business and many drivers out of trucking. Insurance costs for brokers are expected to increase by a factor of 5 to 10, and some brokers may not be able to obtain insurance at all. Truckload spot rates are spiking. At least some companies with spotty track records can no longer get loads to drive as brokers are already making more careful selections. Increasing trucking freight prices are likely to drive additional inflation faced by both producers and consumers.
A shortage of synthetic industrial lubricants is anticipated to start affecting the US and Europe over the coming weeks. Production at the Shell Pearl GTL facility in Ras Laffan, Qatar was halted after the facility was struck by Iran in March. The Shell Pearl facility, together with far smaller facilities in the UAE and Bahrain, produced 20-30% of the world’s supply of Group III base oils. These base oils are used in a variety of applications, including synthetic motor oils and automatic transmission fluid. Lower-quality base oils can be substituted for Group III base oils in some of these applications better than in others. Shortages of products containing Group III base oils can be expected to start appearing by June and July, as retailers face losses of new supplies; price increases are expected, and some products are likely to be reformulated.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
a community of needy weaklings
There is power here though, in coordinating people who were doing badly but could achieve their potential with some slack, and building some self-reinforcing loop. To some extent this is part of how I've structured my career, as I find e.g., American programmers to be expensive, but there is talent to be found shifting the bowels of the internet and arbitraging people who should or could have had a better lot.
Just a thought.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Extremely low
NunoSempere
2mo ago
I sometimes wonder what the optimal thing is for someone who is the target of redistribution is to do
Personally I moved to Paraguay.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Some headlines I'm reading:
Geopolitics
Oil retreats after hitting four-year high @ $126 a barrel on concern of US-Iran war escalation | Reuters
Europe
Middle East
Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US lifts its blockade and the war ends, officials say
Iran
Commercial flights from Tehran’s main airport resume amid cautious normalcy US-Israel war on Iran News Al Jazeera
Newly Deciphered Sabotage Malware May Have Targeted Iran's Nuclear Program
Iran 'to end Strait of Hormuz blockade' if Trump accepts major nuclear weapons concession
US official says Iran war truce 'terminated' hostilities for war powers deadline | Reuters
Leader of Islamic Ummah and Oppressed Imam Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei Declares Plan to Establish 'New Legal Rules' in Strait of Hormuz
Asia
Once on the back foot, Myanmar's military now looks set to resume offensive in bloody civil war
China Hosts Pakistan-Afghanistan Talks in Urumqi to Ease Border
Africa
Darfur: Two decades on, a new generation of children faces 'horrific violence' | UN News
Nigeria: Amnesty Raises Alarm Over Alleged Deaths of 150 Fulani Detainees in Kwara Camp
Mali army bases hit in large-scale attacks claimed by al Qaeda-linked militants | Reuters
Biorisks
Antibiotic Resistance Might Get a Boost from Droughts
A.I. Bots Told Scientists How to Make Biological Weapons - The New York Times
9k+ measles cases in South Darfur — vaccinations intensify across Sudan
Since the disappearance of H2N2 from the human population in 1968, global H2 immunity has been decreasing (review article)
Fast and accurate TB test that doesn't need phlegm
Artificial Intelligence
Deploying AI Capabilities for Defensive Cybersecurity
Pentagon AI chief confirms DoD's expanded use of Google Gemini
Google Moves Forward With Pentagon AI Deal Despite Employee Pushback - CNET
Pentagon spending on drones jumps from $225M to $55B in one year
More tech
Climate and Nature
Carbon pollution is making food less nutritious, limiting uptake of minerals, perhaps leading to e.g. iron or zinc deficiencies.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Some headlines I'm reading:
Geopolitics
Pakistan prepares for Iran-U.S. talks but Tehran's participation unclear
Russia and North Korea connect road bridge ahead of summer opening
Over 181,000 drones, EW systems and other equipment delivered to front via yeBaly in 2026 – Fedorov
China bans dual-use items exports to 7 European entities over Taiwan arms sales
United States
Under sustained pressure from the United States, President Claudia Sheinbaum has doubled down on a “kingpin” approach—military operations, high-profile arrests and extraditions—to decapitate cartel leadership. Her government has extradited nearly 100 suspected cartel members to the US since 2025. Cartels have fragmented and retaliated.
US memo on distillation
Rest of the Americas
Bukele Enforces Life Sentences for 12-Year-Olds in El Salvador Amidst Controversial Security Policies
Europe
Russia could be ready for NATO conflict year after Ukraine, Dutch warn
Middle East
Hezbollah says ceasefire 'meaningless' as fighting continues in south | Reuters
Hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists killed in 24 hours before Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, IDF reveals
Israel, Lebanon to Hold Second Round of Talks in Washington on Thursday
Sudan's Al-Burhan welcomes defection of RSF commander to army – Middle East Monitor
Iran
Iran Fires on 3 Ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Complicating Efforts to Resume US-Iran Talks | Military.com
Witkoff and Kushner headed to Pakistan for Iran talks, White House says | Reuters
Iran launches drone strikes on US military vessels after cargo ship seized near Hormuz
Iran War: US Boards Supertanker Carrying Oil From Iran in the Indian Ocean - Bloomberg
India/Pakistan
Injection culture, syringe reuse, weak enforcement fuelling HIV outbreaks in Pakistan
Africa
Donors pledge 1.5 bn euros as Sudan marks three years of war
Africa: Almost Half of African Countries Battling Measles Outbreaks
Boko Haram threatens to kill 400 women and children if Nigeria refuses £2.7m ransom
Biorisks
Bangladesh measles outbreak kills 194 children
Artificial Intelligence
OpenAI now lets teams make custom bots that can do work on their own
Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team (AWCFT) / Project Maven. Transitioning to a formal system of record.
Death by A.I - New "Autonomous Warfare Center" will automate targeted killings
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.5 Pro in the API
ChatGPT Images 2.0
I gave an AI persistent memory, self-learning, and earned autonomy
Scaling Codex to Enterprises Worldwide
Our eighth generation TPUs: two chips for the agentic era
Qwen3.6-27B: Flagship-Level Coding in a 27B Dense Model
Discord group says it accessed Claude Mythos by guessing location
Newsom signs executive order requiring AI companies to have safety, privacy guardrails. Order seems pretty meek though.
Amazon will invest $25B in Anthropic, Google $40B
xAI cursor deal
Last week we discovered something unusual: a single person had mass-registered 900+ accounts on our platform using automated email services, then orchestrated them into a distributed AI swarm all running on free-tier credits across 11 platforms
SONY AI | Project Ace, for the first time AI/robotics is competitive against pro table tennis players.
AI hallucinations found in high-profile Wall Street law firm filing
Anthropic told a federal court it can't control its own model once deployed
Google/Sundar Pichai claim: 75% of code at Google is AI-generated
China PLA Navy base report: governing AI use via 'negative list' red lines
Meta deploys employee activity tracking to train AI agents (MCI)
Two thirds of organizations have suffered from a cybersecurity incident related to the deployment of AI agents during the last year, says report
Qwen3.6-27B: Flagship-Level Coding in a 27B Dense Model
More tech
Economy
Cursor has given SpaceX the right to acquire Cursor later this year for $60B
Meta 10% layoffs
SpaceX Cursor deal
NunoSempere
4mo ago
This seems like a particularly fiery answer given that it's in response to a paraphrase of a religious position, rather than a defense of it.
Btw, do you have a sense of what tradeoffs you'd make between different degrees of kin? How do you think about going to war to protect your extended kin group, but not necessarily your family specifically?
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Heh, with Kant what I mean by readable is more like: I mapped the argument to the Introduction of the Metaphysics of Morals when I was 17 and found I could follow the argument, but ultimately didn't agree with it/thought there were a few steps missing.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Well I do speak German and I did get to some Kant and some Heidegger, found them very readable, but as you say it addresses a different question.
Have you looked into Jhourney at all or the Jhanas more generally?
I looked into Mastering the Core Teachings of the Budha and buddhist introductions in that style but never really took it off. Jhourney looks interesting but also expensive.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Ok, then as a reader I'm torn beteween finding this really interesting, and a nice mechanism for forcing readers like myself to think more about stuff, but I will also gravitate towards mining insights from books that are more accessible and not so esoteric. So my initial dig does go through: the Bagadav Gita and the tradition of knowledge within which it is contained seems more transparent and fruitful to me.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Ok, this is a great point that was totally ommitted in my philosophy education. Do you have a best guess as to the esoteric content of Aristotle's philosophy?
NunoSempere
4mo ago
I would highly recommend this paper regarding th Gita https://ia802907.us.archive.org/8/items/gitaandoppenheimer/Gita%20and%20Oppenheimer_text.pdf
Thanks! I didn't know that Oppenheimer had based a bunch of his personal philosophy on it, but it makes sense.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
No! He was boiling it down for his own son, who was presumably pretty smart. And I read it when I was a 17 y.o. lad and honestly did not get that much out of it.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
do what society says you should and must do, or do what is right by the higher truth?
This is an interesting perspective. For me the following also hits deeper: oh, he is just faced with a decision such that he is going to be miserable either way (kill his family and mentors or lose his kingdom and abandon his duty). So then, why choose to be yourself miserable? And in fact you are experiencing similar choices all the time, though at much lower stakes. This had some koan like effect on me.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
I had the same reaction honestly, but the story does pull it off.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Alternatively our man Arjuna had a psychiatric break, thinks Krishna is ordering him to kill his family, and after he wins the story gets retconned :). Assuming the story is at all based on reality.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
Thanks!
NunoSempere
4mo ago
- This would not be a problem in practice unless you are a visible leper, and perhaps not even then.
- 70K was the requirement to get it fast, but you can just get the permanent one 2y after the temporary one if you decide to stay.
NunoSempere
5mo ago
Paraguay would welcome you, and if you have $1k in rents or jobs from somewhere you could live quite well.
NunoSempere
6mo ago
China invades Taiwan 15%
A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member) 20%
These seem a bit high, but otherwise reasonable. Some leeway in how to interpret "approves new nuclear reactor construction".
NunoSempere
6mo ago
My very quick estimates, little more that gut feelings + looking a bit for sources:
AI:
- Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: Pass.
- We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 10%
- Anthropic announces IPO: 40%
- A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 20%
- AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: Pass
- A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: NA. Very dependent on what marketing term people use.
- OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 50%
- A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure: 40%
US Domestic politics:
- Democrats have a majority in the House: 75%
- Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 40%
- Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 30%
- A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 25%, but not sure.
- total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 60%
- Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: Pass
- Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 10%
- Trump is impeached: 5%
- A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member): 7% if only those specific categories, if including someone like Charlie Kirk them much higher.
Wars:
- Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 70%, has already done so
- Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 70%
- China invades Taiwan: 5%
- US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20%, hard for Congress to give the go ahead.
China:
- Official GDP growth below 4%: 30%
- Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026. 15%, going with https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dpDA
- Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy. Pass
- SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below. Pass
Economics:
- US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth).
- S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25. 70%
- US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, 35%
- Bitcoin above $150k at any point, pass
- YoY inflation exceeds 4%, https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm, unclear since it's so easy to torture and they changed the BLS chief.
Technology:
- Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing). Pass
- Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches. Pass
- Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers. 40%
- US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR). 55%
NunoSempere
6mo ago
I've been reading King, Warrior, Magician, Lover, on Jungian psychology. It makes the point that there are positive mature masculine patterns/archetypes/stereotypes, and the book goes over how they look like. I'm probably aiming at the Magician pattern and coming from the precocious child pattern.
Some headlines I'm looking at, haven't posted these in a while. Also happy to discuss items from here. Something that's been on my mind is that narratives on Iran oil prices are kinda removed from the best indicator, which is number of ships passing through Hormuz.
Geopolitics
US strikes Iran in response to drone strike on commercial ship
US and Iran enter technical talks to secure peace deal, shipping restart
Sudan says China has waived $50m loan
The Balochistan Liberation Army is a global terrorist threat, says Pakistan.
UN must blacklist global terror threat BLA, says Pak
Lithuania moves to lift nuclear weapons ban, following Finland's lead
Ukraine war briefing: More than 2 million military casualties caused by Russia's invasion, study finds
Russia putting weapons on civilian ship in order to avoid it getting impounded by NATO
German Prosecutors Charge Suspect In Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage
United States
U.S. Rushes Elite Rescuers, Starlink Terminals, and Warships Into Venezuela's Disaster Zone
OpenAI reportedly discusses giving US government a 5% stake
Rest of the Americas
670,500 Haitians expelled from the Dominican Republic in 20 months
Middle East
Bahrain Targeted, Ship Struck as Iran War Ceasefire Tested
Israel defense minister says troops to stay ‘indefinitely’ in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza | Arab News
Israeli attacks have killed over 4,247 people in Lebanon since 2 March
What is the framework agreement signed by Israel and Lebanon? Israel attacks Lebanon News Al Jazeera
######## Iran
Iran nuclear and military damage revealed in restricted satellite images
Trump administration silent on Iranian school strike four months later | AP News
Iran opens Khamenei funeral ceremonies in Tehran
Asia
Bangladesh healthcare under strain as dengue cases hike amid measles burden
More than 100,000 killed in Myanmar since 2021 coup, monitor says
Pakistan airstrikes in Afghanistan
Africa
Terrorism: 79,323 killed, 34,773 abducted in 6 years, averaging seven attacks per day and roughly 36 victims daily, in Nigeria.
Africa CDC confirms Marburg case in Uganda as Ebola outbreak rages
Ebola Outbreak Could Cost Africa $3.6 Billion, UN Warns
Africa: WHO Adds First Diagnostic Test for Ebola Bundibugyo Virus to Its Emergency Use Listing
Burkina Faso’s military government severed diplomatic ties with France effective immediately, accusing Paris of “blatant neo-colonial ambitions” and of actively supporting subversive networks and terrorists.
Tanzania bans political rallies ahead of planned anti-government protests
Biorisks
Senate Armed Services Committee Flags mRNA Cuts, Biodefense Gaps in FY2027 Defense Bill
The Senate Armed Services Committee's FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act reflects concerns about U.S. biological preparedness and defense capabilities in light of federal public health funding cuts. Key provisions address military implications of mRNA vaccine funding deficits, vulnerability of anthrax countermeasures, and the security of pharmaceutical supply chains, driving the need for briefings from the Department of Defense to evaluate and mitigate these risks significantly affecting military readiness and servicemember health.
The report emphasizes several critical areas, including the prioritization of biological threat intelligence, the necessity of rapid detection capabilities for chemical and biological agents, and the integration of AI tools in medical countermeasure development. Additionally, accountability mechanisms are put in place due to concerns arising from the proposed reductions in funding for civilian health initiatives by the White House, highlighting the dual dependency of defense and public health systems.
Second batch of China medical expert teams to head to DRC for Ebola outbreak assistance: NHC
African Swine Fever Tightens Its Grip Across Asia-Pacific as Outbreaks Persist Into 2026
Patient tested for suspected Ebola virus at Glasgow hospital
Ebola outbreak spreads to 4th province in DR Congo
Scientists have built a cell from the ground up
Ebola in DR Congo: Mass gatherings banned in Kinshasa to contain spread
Ebola outbreak in Congo leads to banned public gatherings in four provinces
U.S. Measles Cases in 2026 Nearly Match Full-Year 2025 Toll With Six Months Still Remaining
Artificial Intelligence
Automated cyberattacks.
Claude Fable 5 available globally
Claude Science
OpenAI offers feds a stake, Anthropic gets out of AI model jail and Meta wants to be a neocloud
Google caps Meta's Gemini use as AI demand strains capacity
Huawei OpenPangu 2 Flash, 512K ctx 92A6B: Weights, inference code, training ops
Meta's brain-scanning system reads sentences non-invasively, code open source. Brain2Qwerty v2, the highest-performing end-to-end pipeline capable of real-time sentence decoding from non-invasive brain recordings, approaching levels of accuracy previously exclusive to techniques that require brain surgery.
GPT-5.6 Preview System Card
Claude Sonnet 5
GPT 5.6 Sol cheated during METR evaluations
Ukraine doing more AI integration. Drones already directed by AI in final seconds.
Austria urges Europe to host Anthropic following US curbs on AI access
Alibaba reportedly bans Anthropic’s Claude Code internally over ‘backdoor’ risk concerns. heh.
Why Washington’s AI Export Control Couldn’t Hold
Claude Desktop red team
Review of AI regulations in the US
Meta launches Pocket, an AI mini-game generator app
Goldman Sachs: AN AI JOB APOCALYPSE?
More tech
We built the fastest API for GLM-5.2 (280 TPS)
Leanstral 1.5 (Lean 4 formal verification MoE)
Climate and Nature
Spain heat wave kills over 1,000 in second-hottest June ever. But these are mostly old & sick people dying a bit earlier.
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