DirtyWaterHotDog
No bio...
User ID: 625
DirtyWaterHotDog
1d ago
Egg frying is about temperature. A stainless steel pan would work just fine. I use carbon steel (woks), and it works great. You only need a non-stick for french omelettes.
DirtyWaterHotDog
5d ago
Ah you're right. The rest of it is heat sinks and fans. You could fit a whole super-computing cluster on a shipping container.
DirtyWaterHotDog
5d ago
with a tiny fraction of the compute budget, with no ability to get SOTA GPUs
Shouldn't US intelligence already know about these GPUs ? You can fit 5000 GPUs on a standard shipping container with no special handling required. It should be trivial to smuggle 10 shipping containers for acquiring these GPUs. Scale.AI CEO is the child of Los Alamos researchers and deeply embedded within the US military industrial complex. If he knows it, then US intelligence knows too.
The panic is mostly among twitter speculators.
small AI lab
The R1 paper has 200 authors on it. By their own acknowledgement, they aren't small. Over 2023 Post-GPT4 OpenAI had around 400 employees, and most of these were product people. If R1 had 200 researchers, they'd be around the same size as an OpenAI with $10B in funding.
lot of OpenAI's current position is derivative of a period of time where they published their research
I was working closely with OpenAI as far back as 2021. Technically, tthey weren't that far ahead . They just executed so much better.
They discovered some incredible insights on the continued scaling of model capabilities with size and data. But, once you get that insight, you can't hide it (it's self evident from the model) and is easy to adopt for others in the field. Between Google's Palm 540B & Lambda 2021, the research community clearly knew all the secrets. Openai's other big innovation was the quality of post-training & rlhf, which made talking to it feel far more natural. The Palm models weren't bad, they were just too ADHD to stay on topic. That too wasn't a technical secret as much as an organizational secret. Back then, AI applied-research-2-product pipelines were quite immature at big tech. So, the institutional will power for something like this was lacking.
It's not a surprise that competitors can catch up quickly if they know what's possible and what the target is.
Alibaba was a major player during the pre-GPT LLM battle (yes, LLMs existed for a good half decade before). I'm more surprised that it took this long for China to catch up. On embeddings & cross-encoders, Beijing academy of artificial intelligence (BAAI) had consistently been state of the art. In Vision, they've been mogging everyone since Kaiming He published Resnet at MSR Asia (China) in 2016.
Anyway, do you believe DeepSeek?
Yeah, I believe in China. Motherfuckers are cracked.
DirtyWaterHotDog
6d ago
Thailand has been ahead on gender-fluidity (lady boys) and sex-in-public-life (mature prostitution industry) for a while now.
Non-christian nations are less bothered by change which has frictions with christian conservatism. India is comfortable with MTF transitioners. Pahadi muslims are comfortable with gay-sex (as long as you dont call it gay sex). Japanese have widespread tolerance for cheating.
Loyal monogamous heterosexual marriage matters matters most to Anglo Christians.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Nothing to discuss here, but found a 5 part deep dive podcast on the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war by Conflicted-History. Probably 7-8 hours long.
Dan Carlin-esque in the best way possible. I was well-versed with the war, and it passed my sniff test. I recommend.
Link - https://www.conflictedhistory.com/the-1971-bangladesh-war-part-1-land-of-broken-maps/
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
That's why I am hedging by buying Intel too.
There are only 2 companies with any kind of foundry expertise. If TSMC goes under, Intel will at least double overnight.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Because I am a dum dum.
I understand that they have a monopoly on the market. But, What the fuck is photolithography ? More realistically, how big is their moat ? How lasting is their tech ? How are types of etching different? Why is it hard ?
I am not going to jump in blind.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
I'd rather buy TSMC. Fabs & Foundries are the main bottleneck. Nvidia & TSMC's volumes will scale together. TSMC has invasion risk, but you can offset that by investing in Intel. TSMC's PE ratio is 30, and isn't pumped up by recent deliveries. Intel is technically in dire straits, but IMO that's priced in. Their valuation is 0.1x of TSMC.
On Monday, I'll be buying some TSMC & Intel together. At $3.2T, I don't think Nvidia stock is going to more than 2x above SNP growth.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
I'm not American, and know a limited amount about Tubman. I'm more interested in the art of mythmaking itself.
The public's reception of every currency-note-resident is colored by myth more so than historical facts. The choice to put a person on the note is an ideological statement. Does it matter if Tubman's story is fiction, if it was mean to be apocryphal anyways ? It's about what Tubman stands for, not her actual exploits. As a counter, the same argument applies for George Floyd, whose public portrayal and personal reality couldn't have been more distant. However, Tubman at her worst, was a perfectly normal person. George Floyd was a criminal and a drug addict. I endorse one, not the other. There is a difference.
I am sympathetic to oral history narratives. The culture of transmission through writing is more prominent among European (Christian) & Chinese peoples. It is no doubt a superior technology to oral history, but there are good reasons for why some groups didn't favor it. Slaves were illiterate. Indic peoples had already developed a strict culture of oral history, and had notorious tropical degradation problems. Nomadic peoples such as native Americans didn't maintain keepsakes at all, books or otherwise. Yes, their historic accounts are by definition less trustworthy. But, they aren't fictitious. The mean truthfulness of oral vs written accounts is probably pretty close, but the oral stories definitely have higher variance. The strong coupling of religion (Bible, Protestantism) with the written text, obviously accelerated the adoption of writing among the west's population like no other place. Even among the inventors of paper (Chinese), historic accounts of non-royals aren't preserved that well.
From that POV, I don't think it's fair to hold Tubman's muddled history against her. She wasn't illiterate by choice. The absence of first person written accounts shouldn't be a reason to keep her out of the currency-note.
There are other good reasons to not replace presidents with civilians, but I digress.
P.S: Every passing day, I sound more and more like a woke cultural relativist. I bet it's the contrarian in me. Now that the right is ascendant, I rush to the left's defense.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Vanilla isn't an insult, Vanilla is a sign of absolute victory. Made from the 2nd most expensive spice, vanilla is exquisite. So much so, that we normiefied it. We now have ways to make imitation vanilla and once the inner bean is used, we can still extract by preserving it in alcohol.
English is the most 'vanilla' language, because the Britain/America won. Fries are vanilla sides because nothing is better. Chatgpt's writing style is vanilla, because that exact sentence pattern dominated western speech for a century.
Vanilla becomes an insult, yes. But, that's because it's already won. High quality vanilla bean is genuinely top-tier.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
fair fair.
I did only use it to get a list of points that add up to a first world QOL.
The actual value add (the strike throughs) and the core point (Luigi's assassination as major anecdote for America's low-trust-society-ness, America feeling like a developing country) are all mine.
But point taken. Not a lot of 'human' places left on the internet. No point in turning this one into a vanilla slop-fest.
PS: and before I get accused for using Chatgpt, this is the first time I've done that. My point-wise markdown writing style is my own. That chat gpt uses the same style is coincidence.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
I just got 'upgraded' on my vitamin D supplements. Got a big syringe to my butt, and 50k IU pills once a week.
I've been in sunny California all of last year, and still ended up deficient. I'm no homebody either. So not sure what the reason is. Maybe it's just that I'm brown and wear jackets semi-permanently.
The previous multi-vitamin pills I took had a pathetic 500-1000 IU. That's less than 10k a week. Gotta up the numbers chief.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
That's a tired argument. For near-consensus topics, Chat-gpt gives acceptable answers. I could've done the legwork and found this exact same points elsewhere, but I ain't doing that for free. So you get Chatgpt.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
I can only say "I think the bottom line, is this is just what a low trust society looks like."
Luigi's CEO assassination has been a real statement piece to drive your point.
Other than money, the US lacks other recognizable traits of a developed nation.
High violence, low trust, unreliable social safety nets, bad health outcomes...... you name it. The US has money, and that's about it. Yes, being in the top 1% of America makes for an amazing life. Guess what ? That applies to every half-developed nation.
This is how ChatGPT outlines what living in a developed nation feels like:
Aspects of a Developed Country from a Quality of Life Perspective
-
Healthcare
Universal access to high-quality healthcare services.- Advanced medical facilities and technologies.
High life expectancy and low infant mortality.
-
Education
Free or affordable access to primary, secondary, and tertiary education.- High literacy rates and skilled workforce.
- Emphasis on research and innovation.
-
Economic Stability
- High GDP per capita.
- Low unemployment and inflation rates.
Strong social safety nets and pensions.
-
Infrastructure
Efficient transportation systems (roads, public transit, airports).- Reliable utilities (electricity, water, internet).
Modern urban planning with sustainable practices.
-
Safety and Security
Low crime rates and effective law enforcement.- Political stability and strong governance.
- Protection of civil rights and freedoms.
-
Environmental Quality
- Clean air, water, and well-maintained public spaces.
- Access to green spaces and recreational areas.
-
Social Equity
- Gender equality and inclusivity.
Access to housing and elimination of poverty.
-
Work-Life Balance
Reasonable work hours and paid leave policies.Opportunities for cultural, leisure, and recreational activities.
(Note: it gave me a couple of woke talking points. I deleted those)
I've personally striked out what America fails at. It's pretty damning.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Yeah, the produce at national chains on the east-coast is especially bad. Sad result of national supermarket chains monopolizing. When star market is your only option in a 15 minute range, you go to star market. Some boutique organic stores have great produce, but folks ain't affording that unless they're in the top 5 income percentile.
In my experience, Trader Joe's (value), Costco (bulk), Whole foods (premium) & Aldi (budget) have the most consistent quality across all national locations. The other chains are hit or miss.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
It's why I am adamant on living in the few dense pockets of American cities. I've started step tracking and the difference is stark. If I take public transit to work & do groceries on foot, it's trivial to pass 10k steps. If I am in-and-out of a car all day, then it's hard to crack even half that. Have you tried to make up for a 5k step deficit ? It takes a whole hour of walking on the treadmill !
It shouldn't be too hard. All a family needs is -
- Good public schools
- Walkable
- Safe
- Dense (So groceries & amenities exist nearby)
- Purchasable (for upper middle class)
There are practically zero places in the US that satisfy all these requirements.
Some parts of Greater-Boston & NYC are the only 2 that semi-satisfy this requirement, and they're definitely borderline for #5. I'm also cheating on public schools for NYC/Boston proper because all the good public schools are competitive exam-schools which your child may not get into. I'm lucky. Bellevue WA is the worst I have had to deal with. Can't imagine how bad it is in proper suburbia.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
US life expectancy is reduced by factors like cultural issues: gun violence, car accidents, etc.
You can't mention this without mentioning obesity rates & dietary habits.
Americans, the fit ones too, have culturally poor diets. Vegetables & simply prepared meats (poaching, raw fish, sautee) are shunned in favor of unhealthy cooking methods (frying), fat based sauces (ranch) and simple carbs (potatoes). India has a similar problem with culturally poor diets.
Maybe those extra ten years of life are when you're stroked out and have a pretty terrible quality of life and it would've actually been great to meet a health care system with a death panel
That's my anecdotal observation. The US is excellent at helping you stay alive in misery. Aging is one example. But, disability, drug use, depression, chronic pain get the same treatment. No one cares to fix you. They want to get you back to your base level of misery until you come back again.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Attia and Huberman have incredible long podcasts on this. Here is a small blurb, but their male sexual health videos are worth listening to over the whole 3 hours.
tl;dr: Medical intervention is good and recommended. It works best when done early rather than letting the psychological element build up.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Tibet's capture can directly be traced to brain-dead actions by India.
Tibet's hostile terrain makes it difficult to capture, and even harder to hold on to. It's a on-your-feet infantry operation. No air force, no navy, no tanks and limited use of vehicles. It's rural Afghanistan on steroids. It's Hitler marching into Russia. Tibet is invadable for 3 months of the year. India could've helped Tibet stay independent with limited assistance. Nehru is fully to blame for this, as he is for a lot of boneheaded decisions through his tenure.
It would've given India a buffer state the size of the 10th biggest country in the world. No embarrassment of 1962. No worries of a 2 front war between Pakistan & China. No direct land route between China and Pakistan. Easier to keep Kashmir stable. Direct access to Central Asia.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
This is probably because fentanyl has already killed a significant percentage of the junky population
If a city has a fentanyl epidemic, is it best to do nothing and let it run through the junkies ? Gate them to a neighborhood, soft limiting how many new junkies can join them. But don't fix it.
at United Health, how would you fix the problem?
Set up a 'clean up insurance' job with a wholly owned subsidiary 3rd party. Instantly high prestige.
Something like "Health insurance companies spend too much money on goodies making your healthcare expensive. Healthcare Janitor comes in to eliminate wasteage and make insurance cheaper." Really it's like any capital efficiency, accounting, analytics job. Hire STEM grads to keep the activists out. Markets are happy cause it saves company money, people are happy because Insurance seems to have a watchdog, employees are happy because they are supposedly reigning in the greedy insurers.
Separately, this assassination sets a terrible precedent. Logistically, Assassinations are easy. In NYC,USA where crowded streets, guns & hoodies are common, you may even escape. If a felon is going to recidivate, then might as well go big. Grand conspiracies are hard to keep under wraps. But, one off killings have perfect secrecy by definition. In imperfect conditions, the Homicide clearance rate is 50%. With a perfect disguise, you'd have much better odds.
The only reason we don't see more assassinations is because "we live in a society." American society has broken down before (Inner city gang violence), but it localized to intra-ghetto squabbles. A (resigned) cultural acceptance for freak assassinations may develop. Then the pandoras box is open. I bet freak assassinations follow a similar social virality pattern as suicides. Similar to suicides, once it becomes a cultural meme, it's hard to take it below a certain base rate.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
72 milligrams
Woah, isn't that a high dose ? Don't mean to sound alarmist. Genuinely curious.
shoulder issues
Yes. Was it because of a dislocation, subluxation or another injury?
I've had routine subluxations during climbing. Every time I've gotten injured, my last words have been "watch me get injured". Unlike some other muscles, shoulder injuries are rarely sudden. 100% of the time, Bad sleep + Cold body + Stupidity = Shoulder injury/
Strengthening my rotator cuff + scapula has helped a lot. I do a bunch of cable exercises with low weights for my shoulder. Internal rotation, external rotation, face pulls & dead hangs -> arch hangs, cat-camels, scapular shrugs. For standard exercises, I've moved to using dumb-bells exclusively. It recruits stabilizers and makes it easy to bail from dangerous situations.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
https://youtube.com/watch?v=H_XMqRhLhic
Amazing advice for those in their 20s.
I agree with everything they've said. It's excellent advice for the right audience.
Tl;dr - Find right peers, commit to girl, live under your means and take biggest risks your safety net will allow.
I turned 30 this year. A part of me feels great. I did all those things.
But, with that being said, I need to rant.
Rant ON:
Their audience is Americans without responsibilities. It's harder for immigrants with responsibilities.
This is what your 20s look like if you do everything right as an aspirational immigrant :
- 18-22 - Undergrad at the best national university (IITs, C9, T9, Russell, SKY, etc, etc.)
- 22-23 - Apply for a top grad program so you can move to the US (fastest way to enter the US)
- 23-25 - Finish grad program to start working in the US
- 25-27 - Pay off 150k in debt (international students need to pay out of state tuition) & get an H1b so you don't get kicked out
- 27-29 - Build security deposit for you and parents (~$300k buffer) and get Green Card so you stay in US / found company
- 30 - FUCK
Do everything right, you still lose 7 years to responsibilities & immigration. I don't think any of these points as luxuries or high up on the hedonic treadmill.
I know Dalton and Michael caveated it for people with circumstances like being stuck in another country (presumably immigrants). But, it comes across as lip service. In Bay Area's 'high agency is everything' worldview, a person's reasons (as I outlined above) are equivalent to excuses. Everything that's not 'doing' is an excuse.
I rant because of their hard emphasis on '20s'. Nothing magically changes at 30. But the industry looks at you differently. In typical Gervais principle status economics, you can be classified as loser, sociopath or clueless. The terms are irrelevant. The crystallization of your status tier at 30 is important.
The immigrant self-sorts into 'clueless overperformer' through their 20s to get around logistical limitations and external responsibilities. They're aren't definitionally clueless. They see the hierarchy for the farce it is. But, they are shackled until they complete the 7-year ritual mentioned above. At 30, they decide to switch gears into the competent sociopaths that they actually are. But by then, it's too late. The opportunity has passed.
Naively, I wish we were a base 12 society. Aesthetics matter. 30 will remain an important turning point, because 30 has the right aesthetic. In a base 12 society, you'd have 36 base10 years to turn 30. That's enough time to stabilize your life & complete a full transition to Gervais' sociopath.
Ofc, it is wishful thinking. A truly high agency person can YOLO their way out of any impediment.
Afterall - "Kal karo so aaj. Aaj karo so ab."
DirtyWaterHotDog
2mo ago
Got nothing productive to say....but damn small world.
America already has an Iron Dome, it's called the Atlantic & Pacific oceans. Any nation that has the resources to drop a missile on the American mainland is already budgeting for nuclear war. At that point, we're looking at a bad actor who wants the apocalyptic scenario. No Iron Dome is going to stop a player that powerful, motivated and off-their-rocker.
The paranoia is reminiscent of cold war era nuclear arms race. There is reason we stopped proliferating.
It aligns Elon's and Lock-heed Martin's joint interests. With a double whammy that powerful, I bet it goes through.
More options
Context Copy link