DirtyWaterHotDog
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User ID: 625
DirtyWaterHotDog
9d ago
That's why I am hedging by buying Intel too.
There are only 2 companies with any kind of foundry expertise. If TSMC goes under, Intel will at least double overnight.
DirtyWaterHotDog
9d ago
Because I am a dum dum.
I understand that they have a monopoly on the market. But, What the fuck is photolithography ? More realistically, how big is their moat ? How lasting is their tech ? How are types of etching different? Why is it hard ?
I am not going to jump in blind.
DirtyWaterHotDog
9d ago
I'd rather buy TSMC. Fabs & Foundries are the main bottleneck. Nvidia & TSMC's volumes will scale together. TSMC has invasion risk, but you can offset that by investing in Intel. TSMC's PE ratio is 30, and isn't pumped up by recent deliveries. Intel is technically in dire straits, but IMO that's priced in. Their valuation is 0.1x of TSMC.
On Monday, I'll be buying some TSMC & Intel together. At $3.2T, I don't think Nvidia stock is going to more than 2x above SNP growth.
DirtyWaterHotDog
9d ago
I'm not American, and know a limited amount about Tubman. I'm more interested in the art of mythmaking itself.
The public's reception of every currency-note-resident is colored by myth more so than historical facts. The choice to put a person on the note is an ideological statement. Does it matter if Tubman's story is fiction, if it was mean to be apocryphal anyways ? It's about what Tubman stands for, not her actual exploits. As a counter, the same argument applies for George Floyd, whose public portrayal and personal reality couldn't have been more distant. However, Tubman at her worst, was a perfectly normal person. George Floyd was a criminal and a drug addict. I endorse one, not the other. There is a difference.
I am sympathetic to oral history narratives. The culture of transmission through writing is more prominent among European (Christian) & Chinese peoples. It is no doubt a superior technology to oral history, but there are good reasons for why some groups didn't favor it. Slaves were illiterate. Indic peoples had already developed a strict culture of oral history, and had notorious tropical degradation problems. Nomadic peoples such as native Americans didn't maintain keepsakes at all, books or otherwise. Yes, their historic accounts are by definition less trustworthy. But, they aren't fictitious. The mean truthfulness of oral vs written accounts is probably pretty close, but the oral stories definitely have higher variance. The strong coupling of religion (Bible, Protestantism) with the written text, obviously accelerated the adoption of writing among the west's population like no other place. Even among the inventors of paper (Chinese), historic accounts of non-royals aren't preserved that well.
From that POV, I don't think it's fair to hold Tubman's muddled history against her. She wasn't illiterate by choice. The absence of first person written accounts shouldn't be a reason to keep her out of the currency-note.
There are other good reasons to not replace presidents with civilians, but I digress.
P.S: Every passing day, I sound more and more like a woke cultural relativist. I bet it's the contrarian in me. Now that the right is ascendant, I rush to the left's defense.
DirtyWaterHotDog
10d ago
Vanilla isn't an insult, Vanilla is a sign of absolute victory. Made from the 2nd most expensive spice, vanilla is exquisite. So much so, that we normiefied it. We now have ways to make imitation vanilla and once the inner bean is used, we can still extract by preserving it in alcohol.
English is the most 'vanilla' language, because the Britain/America won. Fries are vanilla sides because nothing is better. Chatgpt's writing style is vanilla, because that exact sentence pattern dominated western speech for a century.
Vanilla becomes an insult, yes. But, that's because it's already won. High quality vanilla bean is genuinely top-tier.
DirtyWaterHotDog
10d ago
fair fair.
I did only use it to get a list of points that add up to a first world QOL.
The actual value add (the strike throughs) and the core point (Luigi's assassination as major anecdote for America's low-trust-society-ness, America feeling like a developing country) are all mine.
But point taken. Not a lot of 'human' places left on the internet. No point in turning this one into a vanilla slop-fest.
PS: and before I get accused for using Chatgpt, this is the first time I've done that. My point-wise markdown writing style is my own. That chat gpt uses the same style is coincidence.
DirtyWaterHotDog
11d ago
I just got 'upgraded' on my vitamin D supplements. Got a big syringe to my butt, and 50k IU pills once a week.
I've been in sunny California all of last year, and still ended up deficient. I'm no homebody either. So not sure what the reason is. Maybe it's just that I'm brown and wear jackets semi-permanently.
The previous multi-vitamin pills I took had a pathetic 500-1000 IU. That's less than 10k a week. Gotta up the numbers chief.
DirtyWaterHotDog
11d ago
That's a tired argument. For near-consensus topics, Chat-gpt gives acceptable answers. I could've done the legwork and found this exact same points elsewhere, but I ain't doing that for free. So you get Chatgpt.
DirtyWaterHotDog
11d ago
I can only say "I think the bottom line, is this is just what a low trust society looks like."
Luigi's CEO assassination has been a real statement piece to drive your point.
Other than money, the US lacks other recognizable traits of a developed nation.
High violence, low trust, unreliable social safety nets, bad health outcomes...... you name it. The US has money, and that's about it. Yes, being in the top 1% of America makes for an amazing life. Guess what ? That applies to every half-developed nation.
This is how ChatGPT outlines what living in a developed nation feels like:
Aspects of a Developed Country from a Quality of Life Perspective
-
Healthcare
Universal access to high-quality healthcare services.- Advanced medical facilities and technologies.
High life expectancy and low infant mortality.
-
Education
Free or affordable access to primary, secondary, and tertiary education.- High literacy rates and skilled workforce.
- Emphasis on research and innovation.
-
Economic Stability
- High GDP per capita.
- Low unemployment and inflation rates.
Strong social safety nets and pensions.
-
Infrastructure
Efficient transportation systems (roads, public transit, airports).- Reliable utilities (electricity, water, internet).
Modern urban planning with sustainable practices.
-
Safety and Security
Low crime rates and effective law enforcement.- Political stability and strong governance.
- Protection of civil rights and freedoms.
-
Environmental Quality
- Clean air, water, and well-maintained public spaces.
- Access to green spaces and recreational areas.
-
Social Equity
- Gender equality and inclusivity.
Access to housing and elimination of poverty.
-
Work-Life Balance
Reasonable work hours and paid leave policies.Opportunities for cultural, leisure, and recreational activities.
(Note: it gave me a couple of woke talking points. I deleted those)
I've personally striked out what America fails at. It's pretty damning.
DirtyWaterHotDog
17d ago
Yeah, the produce at national chains on the east-coast is especially bad. Sad result of national supermarket chains monopolizing. When star market is your only option in a 15 minute range, you go to star market. Some boutique organic stores have great produce, but folks ain't affording that unless they're in the top 5 income percentile.
In my experience, Trader Joe's (value), Costco (bulk), Whole foods (premium) & Aldi (budget) have the most consistent quality across all national locations. The other chains are hit or miss.
DirtyWaterHotDog
17d ago
It's why I am adamant on living in the few dense pockets of American cities. I've started step tracking and the difference is stark. If I take public transit to work & do groceries on foot, it's trivial to pass 10k steps. If I am in-and-out of a car all day, then it's hard to crack even half that. Have you tried to make up for a 5k step deficit ? It takes a whole hour of walking on the treadmill !
It shouldn't be too hard. All a family needs is -
- Good public schools
- Walkable
- Safe
- Dense (So groceries & amenities exist nearby)
- Purchasable (for upper middle class)
There are practically zero places in the US that satisfy all these requirements.
Some parts of Greater-Boston & NYC are the only 2 that semi-satisfy this requirement, and they're definitely borderline for #5. I'm also cheating on public schools for NYC/Boston proper because all the good public schools are competitive exam-schools which your child may not get into. I'm lucky. Bellevue WA is the worst I have had to deal with. Can't imagine how bad it is in proper suburbia.
DirtyWaterHotDog
17d ago
US life expectancy is reduced by factors like cultural issues: gun violence, car accidents, etc.
You can't mention this without mentioning obesity rates & dietary habits.
Americans, the fit ones too, have culturally poor diets. Vegetables & simply prepared meats (poaching, raw fish, sautee) are shunned in favor of unhealthy cooking methods (frying), fat based sauces (ranch) and simple carbs (potatoes). India has a similar problem with culturally poor diets.
Maybe those extra ten years of life are when you're stroked out and have a pretty terrible quality of life and it would've actually been great to meet a health care system with a death panel
That's my anecdotal observation. The US is excellent at helping you stay alive in misery. Aging is one example. But, disability, drug use, depression, chronic pain get the same treatment. No one cares to fix you. They want to get you back to your base level of misery until you come back again.
DirtyWaterHotDog
18d ago
Attia and Huberman have incredible long podcasts on this. Here is a small blurb, but their male sexual health videos are worth listening to over the whole 3 hours.
tl;dr: Medical intervention is good and recommended. It works best when done early rather than letting the psychological element build up.
DirtyWaterHotDog
24d ago
Tibet's capture can directly be traced to brain-dead actions by India.
Tibet's hostile terrain makes it difficult to capture, and even harder to hold on to. It's a on-your-feet infantry operation. No air force, no navy, no tanks and limited use of vehicles. It's rural Afghanistan on steroids. It's Hitler marching into Russia. Tibet is invadable for 3 months of the year. India could've helped Tibet stay independent with limited assistance. Nehru is fully to blame for this, as he is for a lot of boneheaded decisions through his tenure.
It would've given India a buffer state the size of the 10th biggest country in the world. No embarrassment of 1962. No worries of a 2 front war between Pakistan & China. No direct land route between China and Pakistan. Easier to keep Kashmir stable. Direct access to Central Asia.
DirtyWaterHotDog
24d ago
This is probably because fentanyl has already killed a significant percentage of the junky population
If a city has a fentanyl epidemic, is it best to do nothing and let it run through the junkies ? Gate them to a neighborhood, soft limiting how many new junkies can join them. But don't fix it.
at United Health, how would you fix the problem?
Set up a 'clean up insurance' job with a wholly owned subsidiary 3rd party. Instantly high prestige.
Something like "Health insurance companies spend too much money on goodies making your healthcare expensive. Healthcare Janitor comes in to eliminate wasteage and make insurance cheaper." Really it's like any capital efficiency, accounting, analytics job. Hire STEM grads to keep the activists out. Markets are happy cause it saves company money, people are happy because Insurance seems to have a watchdog, employees are happy because they are supposedly reigning in the greedy insurers.
Separately, this assassination sets a terrible precedent. Logistically, Assassinations are easy. In NYC,USA where crowded streets, guns & hoodies are common, you may even escape. If a felon is going to recidivate, then might as well go big. Grand conspiracies are hard to keep under wraps. But, one off killings have perfect secrecy by definition. In imperfect conditions, the Homicide clearance rate is 50%. With a perfect disguise, you'd have much better odds.
The only reason we don't see more assassinations is because "we live in a society." American society has broken down before (Inner city gang violence), but it localized to intra-ghetto squabbles. A (resigned) cultural acceptance for freak assassinations may develop. Then the pandoras box is open. I bet freak assassinations follow a similar social virality pattern as suicides. Similar to suicides, once it becomes a cultural meme, it's hard to take it below a certain base rate.
DirtyWaterHotDog
25d ago
72 milligrams
Woah, isn't that a high dose ? Don't mean to sound alarmist. Genuinely curious.
shoulder issues
Yes. Was it because of a dislocation, subluxation or another injury?
I've had routine subluxations during climbing. Every time I've gotten injured, my last words have been "watch me get injured". Unlike some other muscles, shoulder injuries are rarely sudden. 100% of the time, Bad sleep + Cold body + Stupidity = Shoulder injury/
Strengthening my rotator cuff + scapula has helped a lot. I do a bunch of cable exercises with low weights for my shoulder. Internal rotation, external rotation, face pulls & dead hangs -> arch hangs, cat-camels, scapular shrugs. For standard exercises, I've moved to using dumb-bells exclusively. It recruits stabilizers and makes it easy to bail from dangerous situations.
DirtyWaterHotDog
25d ago
https://youtube.com/watch?v=H_XMqRhLhic
Amazing advice for those in their 20s.
I agree with everything they've said. It's excellent advice for the right audience.
Tl;dr - Find right peers, commit to girl, live under your means and take biggest risks your safety net will allow.
I turned 30 this year. A part of me feels great. I did all those things.
But, with that being said, I need to rant.
Rant ON:
Their audience is Americans without responsibilities. It's harder for immigrants with responsibilities.
This is what your 20s look like if you do everything right as an aspirational immigrant :
- 18-22 - Undergrad at the best national university (IITs, C9, T9, Russell, SKY, etc, etc.)
- 22-23 - Apply for a top grad program so you can move to the US (fastest way to enter the US)
- 23-25 - Finish grad program to start working in the US
- 25-27 - Pay off 150k in debt (international students need to pay out of state tuition) & get an H1b so you don't get kicked out
- 27-29 - Build security deposit for you and parents (~$300k buffer) and get Green Card so you stay in US / found company
- 30 - FUCK
Do everything right, you still lose 7 years to responsibilities & immigration. I don't think any of these points as luxuries or high up on the hedonic treadmill.
I know Dalton and Michael caveated it for people with circumstances like being stuck in another country (presumably immigrants). But, it comes across as lip service. In Bay Area's 'high agency is everything' worldview, a person's reasons (as I outlined above) are equivalent to excuses. Everything that's not 'doing' is an excuse.
I rant because of their hard emphasis on '20s'. Nothing magically changes at 30. But the industry looks at you differently. In typical Gervais principle status economics, you can be classified as loser, sociopath or clueless. The terms are irrelevant. The crystallization of your status tier at 30 is important.
The immigrant self-sorts into 'clueless overperformer' through their 20s to get around logistical limitations and external responsibilities. They're aren't definitionally clueless. They see the hierarchy for the farce it is. But, they are shackled until they complete the 7-year ritual mentioned above. At 30, they decide to switch gears into the competent sociopaths that they actually are. But by then, it's too late. The opportunity has passed.
Naively, I wish we were a base 12 society. Aesthetics matter. 30 will remain an important turning point, because 30 has the right aesthetic. In a base 12 society, you'd have 36 base10 years to turn 30. That's enough time to stabilize your life & complete a full transition to Gervais' sociopath.
Ofc, it is wishful thinking. A truly high agency person can YOLO their way out of any impediment.
Afterall - "Kal karo so aaj. Aaj karo so ab."
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Got nothing productive to say....but damn small world.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
It's not so much that non-tech people are bad for games. But that their utter dominance means tech nerds rarely get their voices out.
When doctors & lawyers take on secondary leadership roles, they don't turn into narrow minded autists. They learn the ropes of their new role, and apply those to their profession. Tech people should be able to do this too.
A company must have at least one of - love for the product, love for the tech or love for the user's identity. The counter to that is love for the money, love for the optics & love for the media. The nerds are most likely to have love for the tech, love for the user (because they're gamers themselves) and love for the product (because they want to make good games).
MBA types usually love the latter. But, media, optics and money are downstream from success. You can game media + optics and temporarily identify a money extraction strategy. If the MBAs don't play the games, don't care about the tech and don't identify as a the user (a gamer), then they'll inevitably crash and burn. In the woke era, many video game art-people hated gamers & gaming, and were using it as a way to tell their own woke story. This doesn't work. GTA was the Housers' baby. They may not write code, but they surely loved the product.
Andrew Wilson
Wilson definitely revolutionized the monetization of gaming as EA CEO. It's not to say that people like him shouldn't be hired or given important roles. But the CEO is the lifeblood of a company. Give bean counters the reigns, and they destroy the whole company for better quarterly results. Ballmer is the classic example.
The counter to this is Google and Facebook. Susan Wojcicki and Sheryl Sandberg turned them into the world's richest companies. But, because the CEOs were technical, the focus of the company remained technical. Even Tim Cook's peak MBA personality (in the best way possible) was balanced by Ive & Craig as two people who loved the product. It's cliche to say you need a balance. But, you need a balance. For instance, look at the EA board. 2/11 people have technical backgrounds (2 CTOs). One of them is a forever program manager without game-dev experience and another is a head of security, who while technical, has nothing to do with game development. This is the lopsidedness I'm talking about. 0/11 people are hard core game dudes.
don’t have the MBAs? You get SAP
I guess I'm in the Bay Area where technical people are fiercely business focused. I can't relate to the SAP situation
Say what you want about Elon, but he quickly reaches a 201 level technical knowledge in the companies he runs. Your CEO doesn't need to be an expert. But they need to be good enough to smell bullshit when it stares them in the face. Listen to Elon's reasoning about major strategic decisions. It is simple first principles reasoning on top of the core technical primitives of his company. (and I don't even like the guy).
If you think game devs & video game designers sit in a room together, then you're dead wrong. Devs are the exploited labor. If devs were the problem, then indie games would have been an even bigger woke fest. That opposite is true.
The problem is lack of cartelization. Or : "Tech dudes are pussies".
Here is the day to day in the life of a developer:
- Report your progress to your VP who decides if you get promoted. MBA.
- Report your progress to a product PMs who decides what needs to get done. MBA.
- Build the software to the exacts design created for you. BA Painting.
- Submit legal review to the legal team who decide if you're infringing on external IP. Lawyer.
- Rinse and repeat
They have no agency.
Have you ever worked in a law firm ? The partners, managers, associates....all lawyers. Everyone else reports up to them. Hospitals : Admins, Head of departments, Regulators.... all doctors. Everyone else (nurses, insurance, etc) must report to or work with them. Same is true for heavy engineering or any industry that needs deep expertise.
Tech prides itself in being anti-credential. But in the process, it has become anti-expertise. When the door is open for everyone, the politically savvy are going to run rounds around the meek devs.
The problem started with Steve Jobs. Steve portrayed himself as the cool 'designer' who figured out how to take socially inept coders and transform the world with it. This set the narrative for the tech industry as it exists today. It is exacerbated when a startup CEO sees massive growth, and must hire people to 'manage' all the growth. Rather than promoting socially competent senior devs, they hire 'ready made' MBAs. This sets up empire-building MBA culture in the entire middle management (VP - Director) band.
Tech guys created an industry, and MBA types stepped in to make all the money from it. MBAs understand all products as a supply chain. Create more, create faster and more time pressure. Ofc, that's a terrible combination for anything that needs the slightest bit of expertise. So, that's how you get the modern game dev industry.
To be direct:
- Arts grads (writers, designers, directors) come up with woke stories
- MBA CEOs follow the money & NYT. NYT tells them more woke. Money tells them more Fortnite.
- Tech see major issues. But, are pussies so they build what they're told at insane time pressue
- Thing doesn't get made in time because in any high-skill job - more time pressure is worse quality is broken game
- Deadlines keep slipping for reasons any dev could have explained. But to MBAs, whippings must continue until morale improves
- Devs keep getting abused
- Game releases as a broken unplayable mess
- Consumers give shit reviews. IGN says 10/10 because video game journalism also isn't run by gamers or devs.
- Art grads and MBA CEOs have never played a video game in their life. So they don't know the video game is shit. IGN must be right. Gamers are sexist.
- MBA CEO says numbers must go up. So, burn all good will by overselling cosmetics exploiting gambling whales.
- Shit game but breaks even. Convenient explanation so board-of-directors doesn't fire MBA CEO.
- CEO gets bonus. Art team gets credit. Dev team gets fired. (cost cutting measure to show good quarter)
- 2024, good will runs out, gamers out of touch with companies. Customer rebels. No sales.
- -> WE ARE HERE
All the recently successful game companies are run by hardcore tech dudes. Epic and Roblox are obviously having a moment minting money. Both their CEOs were hard core tech dudes who built the core tech that underlies their companies. The 2 games that recovered from shambolic launches (No man's sky, Cyberpunk) are both run by hardcore tech people.
When looking for tech people running game studios, I found this quote from the founder of No Man's sky's studio.
My degree was straight Computer Science which generally frowned on anything games related
Tells you everything you need to know about Gaming as an industry.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
Oh yeah, the hiring bar for twitter was still the same as other FANG companies. So, the employees (at least non-DEI programmers) were definitely competent. But it had insane redtape. My friend complained about the amount of redtape at twitter after leaving a team working on highly-sensitive data at Microsoft. So that's saying something.
Products like what?
They never saw the light of day. Most products created at big-tech die before they get too far. Google is infamous for this. But, it's an issue at other FAANGs too.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
I'm going against this advice, albeit temporarily. The counter advice is -
you can only prioritize 1 hard thing at a time.
In 2024, I took the 'just do it' advice. I wanted to start a startup asap. I began moonlighting. Built decks, figma walkthroughs, demos, talked to customers. But, all I have to show for it is a YC reject. I lost my cofounder (still my best friend) when he decided to pursue family goals instead. I couldn't do the startup justice while juggling another taxing job. I burnt the candle at both ends, and ended the year with a bad health scare.
I should've 'set myself up for success'. But the desperation to move at all costs put me on the back foot. I still want to start the startup, but I'm now going to do it by going back the basics.
2025, I'm taking a chill stop gap job. I want to take my time evaluating the right cofounder, getting health sorted so I can do a startup long-term and proposing my GF so my long term relationships are solid. It seems like a detour, but I'm hoping it'll make the start up doable the next time I try.
DirtyWaterHotDog
1mo ago
In your 30s, cherish each moment with your parents.
Especially true for immigrants. I visit my family annually. If my dad lives till a ripe old age of 80, then I'll only meet him 20 more times.
Nothing to discuss here, but found a 5 part deep dive podcast on the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war by Conflicted-History. Probably 7-8 hours long.
Dan Carlin-esque in the best way possible. I was well-versed with the war, and it passed my sniff test. I recommend.
Link - https://www.conflictedhistory.com/the-1971-bangladesh-war-part-1-land-of-broken-maps/
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