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due to lack of interest the human race has been cancelled

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joined 2024 February 19 23:50:04 UTC

It's TZD


				

User ID: 2892

spring

due to lack of interest the human race has been cancelled

0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2024 February 19 23:50:04 UTC

					

It's TZD


					

User ID: 2892

That's rather amusing given that he looks more like Vin Diesel than the typical science fiction writer. I've only read The City and The City, and while it was interesting the concept taxed my suspension of disbelief more than any other work of fiction I've read.

The US should give a damn, because if it's been sabre rattling its closest neighbour to the point it feels the need for foreign military assistant it should understand that the """threat""" it is facing is a locked door.

This is disappointing. I notice despite skimming the report and some news articles I can't find a specific underlying motivation. Just references to suppressing dissent.

"You gave me insufferable provocation. When I wanted to rob you I found you had locked the door."

Strategic policy doesn't spring forth from fresh earth, it is a consequence of strategic context. Finland, the Baltics, Poland and more recently Ukraine have their armies configured primarily to fight a Russian invasion because Russia has a history of invading, and its leader talks about how he could totally invade. Oh look Russia invaded Ukraine and is annexing their territory, again. It's Ukraine's fault, he was coming straight at me, you all saw it.

In the hypothetical where the PRC are invited to the Canadian side of the border: what happened that lead to that point?

I don't have stats to hand but they serve a lot of enterprise customers now. Maybe they see serving end users as a sideshow.

Given current events and the context of your comment I believed you were referring to current spending levels within NATO. Seriously, who were you referring to if not a NATO member state?

This is media circus. As of 2024 the majority of NATO countries are meeting the 2% of GDP target, and this is broadly indicative of overall attitudes towards defence investment post Feb-22.

Maybe security guarantees could be provided in exchange for a besuited Zelenskyy.

Once there is peace, then there can be money for weapons to secure it.

For a ceasefire the (perceived) costs of continuing to fight must exceed the gains from fighting. Whilst one party believes they have more to gain from fighting than not, fighting continues. What made Kellogg's peace plan workable on paper is that it shifts the cost calculus for both parties such that costs from continuing to fight far outweighed the gains.

One necessary prerequisite for this that America must signal its willingness to commit. If Ukraine believes that Russia believes that American is fickle they won't come to the table in the first place, if Russia believes it America will flake out they will violate the agreement when convenient.

Peace doesn't happen just because one party wants it, especially not a third party.

Does the average Ukrainian want to continue prosecute the war? Nobody knows.

There is actually consistent polling on the attitudes regarding the war.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/653495/half-ukrainians-quick-negotiated-end-war.aspx

If you're interested in recommendations for children you may be interested in The City of Dreaming Books. I picked it up not realising it was written for children (probably 9-12), but enjoyed it enough to finish it regardless. It's about a Lindworm that discovers the best book ever written and goes on an adventure to discover its author. Adult readers will find many of the plot beats a little predictable, but it's timeless and whimsical.

Having read stories of how Musk treats his employees: I hope their sacrifices are worth it.

I won't consider video games saturated until developers can create faster than "content locusts" want to consume. Currently games that provide a lot of playtime relative to developer time still have significant gaps between major deployments. Path of Exile for example had approximately three minor and one major release per year. Given that most players play 1-2 weeks after a release this produces 4-8 weeks of player time per year of development time. If you're into a more niche genre you might be looking at one or two good titles per decade.

If you can point to a specific person who claims "Trump repeating Russian propaganda shouldn't be taken seriously", in those exact words

This is a glib summary of my point of view. Crucially Trump has repeated Russia's talking points that Ukraine 'started it', and that Zelenskyy's leadership is illegitimate. Particularly for the former I do not believe Trump arrives at that point of view as an impartial outsider. I don't believe it should be taken seriously because Trump has a habit of saying anything, and his view of conflict mediation is probably closer to breaking up a schoolyard scuffle than Clausewitz. If Russia is given sanctions relief to stop its economy from cratering I will concede I didn't take him seriously enough.

I can't think of anything I've read from Lovecraft that really emphasizes power. I will second the Chernobyl miniseries and Blindsight. I'd recommend Gateway by Frederik Pohl, the climax of the book really captures the powerlessness of humans against a specific phenomena.

I agree with this assessment. Sex pests in other milieus tend to be suppressed or handled more orderly. For groups with religious ties there's the associated shame in sex-pesting which incentivises burying it. More secularly minded groups may be satisfied with letting it run its course through the courts. It's only with the combination of celebrity and feminism that it gets boosted to the stratosphere. Feminists want to signal their purity by loudly rejecting the pests (and receive feminist kudos for doing so), and media figures like Gaiman tend to lean left and consequently are more likely to pest within the feminist circles.

but I wanted something of reliable quality

oh no. Do yourself a favour and pick up Lyonesse instead. All three books combined are shorter than one of Sanderson's doorstoppers. Vance is everything Sanderson isn't: excellent prose, effortlessly amusing, briskly paced, tight plots and fun characters.

This is a mad rush to overturn UI into an LLM chat

I am reminded of the opening scene in PKD's Ubik, in which the penniless hero unsuccessfully haggles with a pay-per-use talking washing machine(?).

There are a great many interesting places on Earth right now should you so desire an escape from the oppression of peace and stability.

Now that it is finally Joever, favourite Biden meme?

For me, it's this edit with the Transformer's ending credits.

Do you have any examples of a TBI whitepaper becoming a devastating policy?

Failing to prevent Russian oil from ending up in western markets is a failure of application. Sanctions shift the expected outcome by making the sanctioned party pay a higher cost to achieve their goal. In the case of Russia, this means the point at which they are no longer able to sustain the war effort arrives sooner.

The Russian economy is not doing quite well, it is verging on stagflation.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/11/russia-central-bank-dilemma?lang=en

The war with Ukraine means that Russia’s economic policymaking is caught in a paradox: on the one hand, the government is increasing expenditure (over 8 percent of GDP is being spent on the war), which fuels inflation, while on the other, the central bank is trying to dampen inflation by raising interest rates. It is this paradox that drives calls for greater coordination between the government and the central bank. Of course, the looming specter of a recession and stagflation also mean that there is a preemptive hunt under way for scapegoats.

Western sanctions mean that the Russian elite has no institutional alternative to Putin and Russia’s current economic course. They can’t flee to the West, and their only option if they want to earn money is to remain in the country. But high interest rates are squeezing their margins and cutting into profits. Business lobby groups have complained that companies are scaling back investment plans.

The case for China is much murkier. But if one starts from the assumption that ASI are of the same level of strategic significance as nukes, improving your chances of getting there first seems like a defensible position to me.

I wouldn't be willing to write off Llama and Meta's AI team at this stage, it's a safe bet that they're working on their own CoT models and it's any body's guess what they'll be like in terms of price to capabilities. Deepseek is impressive but also much more spikey capabilities-wise than other language models. The real test for open source models is the community uptake, but even then I wouldn't even say it's over even if teams were overwhelming choosing to finetune Deepseek over Llama. It only took one generation for Anthropic to turn "Clod" into the darling of AI enthusiasts everywhere. It's still anyone's game.

Agreed. I decided not to fill it out on this basis.

"With a car you can go anywhere you want" he said to himself, out loud.

I love poetry, but this just cracks me up.

Careless Whisper

On the topic of music, does anyone know of any good blogs/videos aimed at laymen that explains why current pop music sounds the way it does?