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This is a Norman poliorcetics bulletin board sir. I'm told sensible chuckles are tolerated, but they demand more effort than mere avatarfagging.

That's fair, I'm going to have to get used to the fact it's no longer a cypherpunk secret club as it normalizes. We got Monero for the cool kids now.

But whilst not everyone who holds Bitcoin knows about the inner machinations of the SEC, "Operation Chokepoint" and all that jazz; they at least know that they don't want the government in charge of their money, that's the whole value proposition of it in the first place.

So the way I see it, either you're a degen gambler who will balk at being "protected" from being able to rug people with shitcoins, or you actually are treating it as an investment and you don't want the government to meddle with your neo-gold.

I just can't conceptualize what a person who sees this statement as a good thing and actually cares about crypto looks or sounds like. If you can I'd like you to draw that picture for me, because I'm really not seeing it. Black man or not. Even the most bottom of the barrel drug dealer who's silly enough to think the feds can't trace his crypto knows that them "protecting" you is bad news.

Really the only people it would work on are Affluent White Female Liberals like Warren herself, which is literally the opposite of the target demo on every single count.

Eh, I don't think weed causes much cross talk. More like putting a thick layer over everything. Psychedelics on the other hand? It's cross talk central.

Maybe spending some time every day thinking about your goal in a positive sense (focus on what's good about it) might help motivate you?

I don’t think weed and internet usage are comparable or analogous at all for a variety of reasons

I want a degree so that I can get a job that pays well enough to let me live by myself and be independent. I do not want to be dependent on my mother my whole life.

Sounds like you don't have a clear goal or reason for getting a degree other than that it's vaguely something you feel expected to do.

There are other plausible lines, but yours is just getting more and more strained and implausible.

I don't understand how communication has broken down so badly - I'll take the blame and assume it is just my communication skills failing here, because I've never seen anyone unable to grasp the concept of return on investment before. That's the line! If you are making decisions about energy usage, determining whether an activity or idea returns a net positive amount of energy or a net negative amount is extremely useful. Let's use a solar panel for example - you have to invest energy and work in order to transform a bunch of raw materials into a solar panel and then install it, so you count the cost of those inputs. While the solar panel is fuelled by the sun, you don't have to give a shit about the energy costs required to make the sun keep burning - those are entirely irrelevant. In contrast, if you set up a petroleum-based generator, you have to care not just about the costs of building the generator, but the cost of supplying it with fuel as well, because that fuel does not shine down out of the sky for free.

I just don't understand why this is so difficult to grasp or understand and at this point I'm giving up - this is my last post in this thread because this is just not productive. My line that you consider strained and implausible has been used by scientists for decades in multiple peer-reviewed papers and it is a widely accepted measure among anyone who takes the topic seriously. Your incredulity at this extremely common and well-understood concept just mystifies me.

So, should I care about that, like they tell me... or should I just care about calories? Why/why not?

Depends on what you're trying to do, but yes, you should care about calories - but you should care about nutrition as well. Having concerns about one thing shouldn't prevent you from having concerns about something related.

Where was the spike of 'old' pollutants?! Why did we have to completely abandon the old predictions?

Look out the window - especially if you're near a coral reef. Were you aware that there are microplastics in your balls? In your brain? The biosphere is in crisis and there's vast quantities of trash and pollution that are degrading the environment and quality of life both. We didn't have to abandon those old predictions at all - but atmospheric carbon levels are a better proxy for that kind of activity than directly measuring all the regular pollution. You don't have to abandon that old prediction at all and you can keep studying it or verifying it if you want to - it's just that atmospheric carbon is a better measure, so we use that instead. If you want to go out and discover an actual method for accurately measuring harmful pollution, please do - it'd be a tremendous service to humanity.

How can we tell the difference? What sort of test could falsify your theory?

You wait a bit and watch the trend-line on the graph. Alternatively, you find some explanation for those temporary shifts up and down - as an example, volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on temperature levels across the globe, so if you can say "we're experiencing lower temperatures because this volcano erupted and filled the atmosphere with vog" that lets you work it out as well.

Why do I care about "renewing itself"? I thought we were talking about how consumption rates come into play for timescales relevant to humans. How does that work?

If you have a bank account with 5000 dollars in it and which will only be refreshed with another 5000 dollars in 10 years, there is a big difference between having a yearly expenditure of 1000 dollars as opposed to a yearly expenditure of 400 dollars.

Low-effort comments lead to low-effort responses. Knock it off, all of you.

Okay, @stuckinbathroom's "Source?" is obnoxious, but so is this.

See the recent Harris DeSantis Biden exchanges.

True enough. But 1 billion is a tiny amount of the available hot money, which is in the trillions. There's already been a couple billion gambled on this market.

Among high net worth people, there is a huge demand for investments which are both positive alpha and uncorrelated from the stock market. They are rare and precious. Hell, if Trump was at 85% right now, I'd throw in 50k myself.

If both parents have the same recessive condition, yeah. It's a big thing that genetic counselors will counsel for.

Which is kind of the point. If the point was just to see who might win, why publish the results? If the polls say Trump wins, then it’s useful perhaps in business where you might want to long term plan for the future economic policies Trump brings. Or it might be useful to the various campaigns as a signal of where the weak points are. I suspect that they aren’t getting the polls generally available to the public, which are not about reporting the likely winners, but in motivating or demotivating various factions in the electorate. CNN isn’t trying to guess the outcome. They want to scare democrats into voting and working harder for Kamala and saying she might lose is motivation for people who are afraid of a Trump second term. If they’re wrong, it’s not like they get a black eye even.

I think what makes more sense is to try to gage enthusiasm and whether or not some factions of the base are not on board. Kamala has a big problem because of Israel Palestine. There’s a fairly large portion of the left that’s jumping to either staying home or voting Green Party. If they’re serious, I think that’s a problem no matter what the polls say. I don’t see the same divide with any issues for Trump. I see lots of people saying they can’t wait to vote for Trump. Both things seem important as data points.

Regarding the distinction you make between improving deliberate information recall and improving spontaneous/sublime association: John Crowley's fantasy novel Little, Big has a character who uses a memory palace (aka. the method of loci) not just to commit facts to memory, but also to do detective work in the sense of joining the dots together. The palace is a place for reflection and discovery. At one point her attention is drawn to a room of the palace by a cowbell ringing in it, so the palace formalizes and increases awareness of the process of recognizing the relevance of a memory. Another character uses his palace (by physically walking around the real analogue of the imagined place) to perfectly preserve emotionally significant experiential memories.
This is a fictional portrayal which verges on astral projection sometimes. I have no idea to what extent it's grounded in reality, or even to what extent the author thought it was, and I haven't tried to emulate it. I've read somewhere that the method of loci was developed by ancient rhetors to memorize speeches, which sounds more like what you were complaining about.

I agree with lagrangian that rote memorization doesn't preclude forming associations. Organizing information in preparation for rote memorization can require decisions about what associations to make: if you want to memorize the periodic table, do you memorize periods or groups at a time, or mappings between atomic numbers and elements, or mappings from a given element to its immediate neighbours? In making this decision you are effectively selecting triggers of relevance and the information that should float into your mind in response to them.

I found a much clearer example this morning: California officials cite Elon Musk’s politics in rejecting SpaceX launches (via here):

The California Coastal Commission on Thursday rejected the Air Force’s plan to give SpaceX permission to launch up to 50 rockets a year from Vandenberg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara County.

“Elon Musk is hopping about the country, spewing and tweeting political falsehoods and attacking FEMA while claiming his desire to help the hurricane victims with free Starlink access to the internet,” Commissioner Gretchen Newsom said at the meeting in San Diego.

I don't think they'd help much for children in a war zone. Even most areas of Chicago aren't located near active war zones where stray rifle bullets might come from.

Actually a relative of mine married a Cornell Economics PhD and moved back with him to South Africa where he rose to be deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank and supposedly only wasn't appointed governor because of his wife's opposition to apartheid.

This is true even in Canada. I was incredibly shocked when I found out that, under Canadian law, evidence could be obtained by the police in a way that is illegal and violates your rights, but it could still be allowed in as evidence during trial if it didn't "bring the administration of justice into disrepute". Illegally obtained evidence isn't automatically excluded like in the US

There's still risk discounting to account for. Even if the true odds are, say, 50-50: to counteract 25m of dumb money, the sharp traders need a bankroll in the order of billions of dollars to avoid kelly ruin, i.e. approximately the total volume on that market right now.

All the guys I hung out with morphed into generic stereotypes in many ways, happy but just very bland.

That's what people generally use Instagram for, to project an image of bland, legible, public happiness. Who knows what they're like behind the veil.

“And why beholdest thou the motte that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the bailey that is in thine own eye?” — Jesus (or something like that)

Does anyone else feel weirded out by their past?

Yes, absolutely. I spend more time than is healthy thinking, "what if..."

All the guys I hung out with morphed into generic stereotypes in many ways, happy but just very bland. All the girls I wanted to talk to at the time just to feel good about myself dont seem that attractive anymore.

My first thought reading this is that almost everybody looks like a generic stereotype when looked at from a distance. For the girls, maybe it was status that made you attracted. So, once you left that particular status hierarchy, the attraction left as well. (I am way less confident in the status idea than the stereotype idea)

(Reposting in the latest Wellness Wednesday following a suggestion)

I am seeking advice on how to fix a chronic, persistent, extreme lack of discipline.

I am currently 25, live with my mother, I have failed out of college (again) and I currently work part time at a grocery store for minimum wage within walking distance (I still don't have my driver's license). The reason I failed out of college both times was that I just didn't show up to class. When I did show up, I passed the exams with no real problem and I managed to pass a few classes with that. I have yet to tell my mother I failed the second time. I went to a 4 year college, failed out of that, then went to a 2 year community college. The only reason I managed to get a degree was that it was during COVID years, so the standards were super lax. I'm pretty sure I missed a few final exams, didn't hand in almost any assignments and yet somehow I still passed. After passing, I went back to the 4 year school and went back to failing.

I only have the job because, after I finished the 2 year degree, I didn't sign up for classes for the 4 year college in time, so I was doing nothing for months. My mother kept telling me to get a job since I wasn't in school and was threatening to kick me out if I didn't. She gave me multiple deadlines that I blew past with no consequence, but I could tell she was getting increasingly fed up. I ended up getting a job and I'm pretty sure if I waited a month or two longer, I would've been kicked out.

After the second time I failed, I decided to go to a therapist. She told me to see a psychiatrist for ADHD. He eventually said I have ADHD, and even though I am still quite skeptical of the diagnosis (for reasons I can go into if needed someone asked, so I answered here), I have been taking the Methylphenidate ER that I've been prescribed. I am only doing this because my mother has great insurance so all the therapists, doctors and medication is all paid for fully by insurance, but that will only last until I am 26 (close to a year from now). She also doesn't know I am going to a therapist, doctor or that I am taking any medicine.

With regards to my job, for reasons that I still do not know, I am able to go to my job without missing a day. I am almost always a few minutes late (anywhere from 0 to 10 minutes), but given the super low standards of a minimum wage job, I never get reprimanded in any way for it. But, I still always show up, unlike my school classes. This confusion is part of what prompted me to go to therapy. I have repeatedly tried to figure out why I am late and to fix it, but nothing really worked.

So, the question is: what do I do? Here is me listing all the options I can think of

  1. Continue going to therapy and seeing the psychiatrist. Both haven't been helpful so far (I've seen two therapists so far. the first abruptly told me she was leaving that practice. Both have been similarly effective), but maybe they just need more time. Hopefully, I will learn why I didn't go to class and fix that, then I will go back to school, finish my degree and get a job like "normal". My worry: it's been 3 months of this so far and I can't see any progress, so I am not too optimistic. Plus, I'm not sure I can hide me failing from my mother much longer and if she does find out, I'm pretty sure I will be kicked out. Maybe I need a new therapist? If it's not part of insurance, as all the good therapists seem to be, I don't think I'd be able to afford it with my minimum wage job. And, even though every therapist that doesn't take insurance says they offer it cheaper for people that find it hard to pay, I'm not sure I'd qualify since, even though I make little money, my mother makes decent money.

  2. Give up on college, give up on therapy, the psychiatry, the adhd medication and try to find a job with the 2 year degree I have. Hope that what happened with me not going to college doesn't happen at my new job. My worry: doing this without understanding why I failed in college seems very risky. I'm also not sure I can find a good enough job to move out with just a 2 year degree.

  3. Tell my mother. Hope she gives me another chance. But then what? What is my plan then? No idea. Plus, I am unsure I would even get another chance (or if I deserve one). I mean, would you give me one? I don't think I would.

  4. Continue working my dead end job. Eventually, my mother will figure out I failed, maybe she'll give me another chance, maybe not, eventually I get kicked out. (doom scenario)

Am I missing any options? What should I do? How do I fix this extreme lack of discipline? How do I fix this extreme laziness? Have you, or anyone you know, fixed this extreme lack of discipline? How?

If it matters, for context I live in the New York metropolitan area. Also, "kicked out" in this context doesn't mean me being homeless. I'm not 100% sure, but it probably means me either living with my dad, or my brother. However, if I don't solve my issues, they would probably kick me out eventually as well, and after that, who knows.

My experience is that procrastination and self-sabotage comes from perfectionism and self doubt

I initially thought that this 100% didn't apply to me since I didn't do simple assignments as well the long form ones, but now I am thinking of a few examples of me avoiding things cause I can't do it perfectly, so I need to reflect on this more. In particular, I'm thinking of times at work when I avoid doing things because I don't know exactly how some minor thing should be done, e.g. "should the sticker be like this, or rotated 90 degrees? Should I ask the manager? No, that's a super dumb question over a minor thing. I'll just do something else" That also made me think of times I avoid doing household chores because I don't know how exactly my mother wants it to be done. (I am the prototypical "weaponized incompetence" trope that women on social media complain about)

Were you so afraid that if you tried and failed, it would be a blow to your self-concept, and so you stopped yourself from trying and guaranteed a failure that you could say wasn’t because you were too dumb?

It's very hard for me to try to remember my emotions. My therapist keeps trying to get me to remember what it feels like when I didn't go to class and I find it very hard. This seems plausible, so I will try to think about it more.

Maybe you struggle less in your minimum wage job because you consider it below you, easy, and therefore unthreatening? You can imagine yourself being some kind of starving artist, an undervalued renegade, maybe?

This definitely resonated with me. This instantly made me think of all the times I had an ego and thought my coworkers were dumb. I need to think about this more.

My first therapist was very nice, but, other than telling me to go to a psychiatrist, I can't really say she was helpful. I've only seen the new one a few times so far, but she's been more thought provoking than the last one even if I can still tell that she is fresh out of school like the last one.

Have you looked into what blocks you from doing things, what benefits procrastination provides you in the moment, like emotional relief, even if it destroys your long term goals? Or do you not even get to the point where you know you have an assignment due Sunday night and it’s Sunday at 3pm and you decide not to try?

Emotional relief sounds accurate because I usually play games or watch youtube and avoid thinking about the assignment or other thing I have to do. I am usually aware of the assignment well before it is due, so I definitely know when it's due and don't forget.

The associate's is in accounting, and ideally, I would've stayed in school to get all the credits to become a CPA, but then my plan shifted to just finishing the degree, finding work, then doing the CPA college credits later on. Then, I failed enough accounting classes that the repeat policy meant I couldn't continue an accounting degree, so I switched to another business degree. But then I failed enough classes that I can't even finish any business degrees at that college anymore. So, if I do go back to school, I'd need to go to a different college since my accounting bachelor's is what I am closest to finishing.