domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
AvocadoPanic
9m ago
Already priced in.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
21m ago
Maybe then I can buy a house.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
23m ago
I was recently chatting with Claude to get a better sense of the course of European architecture after the Romans. As early as the 11th century you start to see beauty in buildings again (st Mark's basilica in Venice, Ely cathedral, San Miniato al Monte), but before that it's truly depressing except in Muslim Spain (the great mosque of Cordoba was built in 785 and expanded in the 10th century, the great mosque of kairouan). It's not all bad (the monastery of Santa maria de Ripoll is decent if not masterful) but it really does seem like the 11th century was a turning point. Basically Christendom was building tremendously dreary stuff until the Romanesque style came about.
faceh
36m ago
But the outcome ISN'T really binary, is it?
Biden dropped out, Trump could have been killed by that bullet, and then we'd have a whole new ball game. The "Trump vs. Biden" model almost certainly didn't include a variable for "the Candidate abruptly drops out" and I doubt assassination risk was plugged in either.
And the fact that it tries to 'call' an election months out but has to adjust radically to new info is why I call it 'gimmicky.'
Taleb had his own discussion of this a while back, and this is the best summary of it I've found.
miras_chinotto
certified low iq
56m ago
Wow. He seems more aged/old than he comes across elsewhere but also somehow sharper and in better physical condition than I expected. A 50 minute Trump Biden golf trip video (alluding to their golf banter) would have actually been very cool and hunanzing for everyone I think.
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
I mean the things the government asked for. Getting more people to live rurally is much easier than giving fiber access to rural dwellers.
Amadan
You are capable of doing better, more often, and I wish you would.
1hr ago
I got 34 out of 50. I figured out most of the human-created ones, but a few of the AI ones fooled me. The human ones that I mislabeled AI had some weird features that I'm still not sure why a human would paint.
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
You're typical minding. I predict that with cheap IVF there won't be a huge increase in IVF births because the people who will do this are strivers with .7 TFR that by its nature won't move the needle much.
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
Vivek or Vance
That GOP needs somebody who can unite the politically incorrect technocrats, the religious interests, and the populists. Vance gets the first two, Vivek gets only the first. Abbott probably gets all three, Desantis or Cruz could probably position himself there as well. Kari Lake hits the last only; Hawley gets the religious interests and the populists, but he needs to reposition himself to get the technocrats.
No Chronic health conditions and access to the best care available.
Jimmy Carter made it to 100 (for some values of 'made it') and I'd not be surprised if Trump is kicking at 90.
I upped by assessment of his health when I saw that recent video of him playing a round of golf.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
2hr ago
I mean it’s not necessarily going to be a Return To PreTrump. Somebody will take the crown simply because the sentiment precedes Trump and will be around without him. The MAGA crowd has now tasted real power, if you think they’re going to allow this moment to fade without any significant victories, you’re mistaken. And with that power available, someone (probably someone anointed by Trump himself) will take the cause and run with it.
doglatine
2hr ago
I wonder how much Twitter changes this. It really does feel like Musk’s takeover of the platform has had major benefits for non-leftist media and organisation, and perhaps suggests strategies for the right going forward — most crudely, getting RW billionaires to buy space in the public forum.
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
2hr ago
IQ appears to be as close to an unalloyed good as it gets. To the best of my knowledge, the markers for most things we consider indicators of a good or successful life positively correlate with IQ, such as overall health, mental wellbeing, income and so on.
Is it theoretically possible that after a certain point, further IQ gains will require horrible tradeoffs (such as an example Scott once brought up of a family that seems to get +20 IQ points at the cost of going blind)? Yes.
But for very large and very meaningful gains, well past the 160s, we have existence proofs that people with high IQs do just fine. Better than you or me for the matter. I'll take plenty more gains along those lines.
zeke5123a
3hr ago
Isn’t it worth looking at the folks who haven’t done as well yet didn’t get their grant pulled? Or all of the other legal nonsense against Musk?
zeke5123a
3hr ago
It truly is amazing how relatively dumb the two dem candidates are. I’d peg both of them as having around 100-110 IQ points.
ABigGuy4U
3hr ago
Neither side is willing to accept a loss, leading to civil war and the collapse of the republic.
Celestial-body-NOS
🟦 All human beings are equal, **even when they aren't.**
3hr ago
I think it started with the Thai cave incident.
As I remember it, they were talking about how their plan, training the children to use the diving equipment, was an extremely dangerous gamble. Mr Musk probably heard this and was trying to offer a safer solution. The chattering classes objected to Mr Musk not privileging social consensus over his own reason (many such cases) and one of the divers told Mr Musk to 'take his publicity-stunt submarine and shove it up his', &c., &c. Mr Musk was probably hurt by the accusation that he was motivated by tribal status-seeking, rather than seeing a problem and trying to fix it; this led to him reaching for the nearest insult he could think of, invoking the widely known image of the Westerner taking advantage of lax enforcement of statutory-rape laws in less well-off nations.
It is my impression that this is when the Blue Tribe started aiming the Two Minutes' Hate at Elon Musk.
Botond173
4hr ago
Unfortunately that seems likely. On a related note, it reminds me what a nonsensical and uninspired term "Generation X" is. It gives you no hint about the peculiarities about that group whatsoever, unlike the terms Boomer and Millennial, and supposedly it didn't even stick, relatively speaking. I looked up the Wikipedia entry on it and it turns out that the term in its multiple original manifestations didn't even carry the definition it does today, which gives us even less of a reason to actually use it.
Latchkey kid, on the other hand, is I think a brilliant and practical term for members of the same generation, it neatly sums up the essence of their lifestyle. It's kind of lame that no such phrase was invented for a) Millennials b) their children.
omfalos
4hr ago
According to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, a seventy-eight-year-old American male has a twenty-five percent chance of dying in the next four years. However, the fact that Donald Trump has no chronic health conditions means his actual chance of dying may be lower than that.
spring
safe, legal torment nexuses
4hr ago
I was pretty deep into image generation at one point and got the following wrong
Fancy Car, pretty obvious in hindsight but when I was looking at it I convinced myself that the headlights and wing mirror had some weird distortions. Rainbow Girl, the way the artist chose to render the hair on the right side of the image is frankly bizarre and I thought the ear was a bit odd. Giant Ship, decided it was AI at a glance based on the subject matter and rendering style. Very obviously CG/photobash if you know that frontier models still struggle with ship rigging and other similar linear patterns. Still Life, didn't notice any obvious tells Paris Scene, thought I recognised this. Even knowing it's AI there aren't many things I can point to as obvious tells. Pretty Lake Colourful Town, wrote this off as AI because I couldn't make sense of the composition
Many correct guesses were with very low confidence. Stylised landscapes and certain outdoor scenes may as well be a coinflip.
Outlaw83
4hr ago
You can have your own views on the Republican bench, and I'll say as a Democrat, in theory, the GOP has plenty of possible statewide elected officials.
But just in the swing states, the Democrat's will have Rueben Gallego, Roy Cooper, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Stein and that's not getting into somebody like Wes Moore in Maryland. Now, I'm sure you likely don't like anybody I Just listed but those people are all statewide elected officials who have won or in the case of Gallego, will have won solidly in swing states.
2rafa
4hr ago
He was fine. If you disengage from your partisan inclinations and watch Obama, Bill Clinton, even Bush I and II speeches they’re all often very funny and have good jokes. That’s what happens when you hire professionals to write these things for you. Trump’s delivery is fine. He does the job. He’s not embarrassing or bad. He’s also not great or anything.
Pulpachair
4hr ago
Piggybacking for some of my recent watches.
American Fiction - A victim of its maketing. It is 95% upper class dramedy with 5% race farce, but the race farce was all that was advertised. I really enjoyed it, but I quite enjoy Jeffrey Wright’s understated acting style generally. I barely recognized Adam Brody. I initially thought Issa Rae was meant to be the foil, but they both made her more relatable and a blatantly worse human as the story progressed. I enjoyed it, but it is slow and frustrating often. Qualified recommendation.
Promising Young Woman - Bo Burnham steals the show and Carey Mulligan is excellent, but this is MeToo passion play scripting. All men are monsters and anything done to them is justified.
Boy Kills World - needed a tighter script. The gimmick of using H Jon Benjamin to provide the protagonist’s internal dialogue wears out quickly, and the action was pretty uninspired. Do not recommend.
Haywire - Gina Carano playing Jason Bourne, but not a wimp. The action scenes are well done - Gina’s time fighting MMA clearly shows and it looks like she could hold her own against her male opponents. The story is pretty weak and Carano doesn’t have a lot of range other than glowering. Wild to me that Steven Soderbergh directed this - it feels so sterile and devoid of human characters for one of his movies. Qualified recommendation.
The GOP’s 2028 nominee won’t be any Republican that people are talking about today. It won’t be a white man. Given the inexorable demographic trends, it will be an Hispanic populist outsider. Think Nick Fuentes but with greater respectability, and who has ties to the military. America will want a military leader to deal with challenges posed by China or Iran. Someone Trumpian and with a bio that could fill out a webpage like this.
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