domain:mgautreau.substack.com
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
5hr ago
That sounds rough. I got a single shot of tramadol after the surgery and that's it, they offered a nightcap shot, but I refused it and didn't need any meds after that, just felt like shit for three days.
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
5hr ago
Surgery?
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
6hr ago
it's an argument for why we should grab our guns and start shooting.
Please stop saying this.
BahRamYou
6hr ago
But doesnt that require you to have some special insight about elections? I agree with nate silver, this election is too close to call and i have no idea what will happen. I certainly wouldn't want to wager millions of dollars on it. If you have some special insight, you could probably becone a celebrity forecaster like nate silver and make more that way.
Lost
6hr ago
Yeah this is a fairly accurate take, although I also made a good amount of money (nowhere near your bankroll, natch) betting on Trump in '16 when his odds were extremely undervalued, both in the primary and the general, up until the last couple months
f3zinker
Its A/B testing all the way down
6hr ago
If a M100 works, you didn't need a gaming mouse to begin with, just one that works at all. `
TowardsPanna
6hr ago
May I ask what gives you confidence on where crypto is headed? What sort of bets did you make?
sapph
7hr ago
The crypto election markets (ie polymarket) dont have those problems. You can bet millions without changing the odds too much (assuming you spread your bets out a little). Spread and withdrawal fees are very small. You are probably thinking of the situation with predictit which did have all those issues.
Note: I specifically do mean election markets. Elections, especially presidential elections, have by far the most liquidity. But you can bet tens or low hundreds of thousands of dollars on all sorts of markets. Liquidity varies but many markets have decent liquidity.
Stellula
7hr ago
Maybe it was like he had said he read moldbug then or something?
It was a long time ago when he was announced that this was being talked about. It was surprising how much overlap he had with the sort of people poasters here like.
cjet79
7hr ago
Yeah all of them announced completion of their vaccine literally the day after the election.
And it'd be better to begin geoengineering now than to wait 20 years, wouldn't it?
Not really. Depends on the discount rate and the cheapness of various solutions. Basically do the geo-engineering when it makes sense from a cost benefit perspective.
BahRamYou
7hr ago
that's impressive. are you actively trading crypto, or just HODLing it? It seems hard to make large amounts on prediction markets, no matter how good you are, because they're just too thinly traded and have too much of a spread/withdrawal fees.
cjet79
7hr ago
I originally had something in my post about negotiating with terrorists.
I didn't want to be confused about calling the dems terrorists. But there is somethign to the US policy of "no negotiating with terrorists". If someone threatens you with violence or defecting, it makes sense to no longer negotiate with that person. Basically once that is on the table there is no guaranteed off-ramp except more violence.
If the democrats are willing to hold the government hostage, then there really isn't much room to negotiate with them. The only winning move is not to play.
Grant_us_eyes
7hr ago
As weird as this demented chimera of a forum is, I'm reasonably certain that we really don't have any major movers and shakers in the national political realm.
Reasonably certain.
...then again, on the off chance that I'm wrong, can we, make a wish list, or something? I've got a particular bone to grind with the EPA in regards to emission standards, and as it stands, purchasing a reasonably priced Toyota Hilux is about as likely as winning the lottery by this point...
Felagund
7hr ago
Are you in Wisconsin? That's the only one that had that list match exactly. It looks like their only write-in candidate available is Peter Sonski, of the American Solidarity Party.
I imagine De la Cruz is too extreme with you, wanting to abolish capitalism. I couldn't find identifiable policies for Terry.
If by "quantitative approaches to existential threats" you mean, not shutting down everything over climate change, while still caring about it, I imagine that rules out West and Stein. They're also just generally more extreme.
Of the remaining:
Oliver likes to handle things by just having the government leave the matter. He wants to let everyone in on immigration. He wants to help the climate only by stopping government actions that make things worse.
Trump's probably more anti-trade than you'd like, and cares less about the environment than you'd prefer (though he agrees that clean air and water are important).
RFK's now only listing things that he can agree with Trump on, which makes him hard for me to evaluate.
Sonski's not really a YIMBY, and wants to keep allowing in refugees.
I'd say, if you want to choose someone with a chance, definitely go Trump. Otherwise, your closest match is probably one of those last four, but I'm not sure which.
Ditto6687
7hr ago
I remember moldbug saying he will not come on Twitter, did he change his mind?
TequilaMockingbird
8hr ago
Jason and Kylie Kelce are the superior Kelces, change my view ;-)
NewCharlesInCharge
8hr ago
Make the thief, if convicted, liable for the lost wages. If they can't pay, have the state front the money and charge the prevailing interest rate to the thief. If they malinger once out of prison, impress them and make them work it off laboring for the state.
TIRM
8hr ago
Neocons are bad conservatives. Good riddance to that lot of big government military adventuring. Disaffected leftists turning bad and ruining Republicans.
TIRM
8hr ago
I don't like bureaucrats and I obviously didn't vote for them. These self-appointed vetoers should be fired and criminally punished if I had my way. They derive all their authority from the executive. In a better world they would be suitably punished for betraying that. They also almost all happen to be partisan Democrats very selectively deciding which sorts of policies to obstruct.
TIRM
8hr ago
Trump is a vote for restoring norms.
But will be countered by:
People blew it up in an attempt to oppose him.
They'll go as far as possible to oppose him next time. They're whipping themselves into a frenzy about how this is the last election, etc. Someone on redd told me the military would kill them if Trump wins.
The actual leaders of the Democratic party are not that hysterical redditor. But they'll be plenty Trump deranged in their own way. Blowing up any and all norms or guardrails will be routine in their Quixotic struggle against him.
NewCharlesInCharge
8hr ago
On the podcast Vance says that Trump got excited about how cool it would be to suddenly announce Vance as the VP pick in Butler, and then was talked down from it.
So Vance probably had a feeling of already narrowly missing death that day.
Man_in_White
8hr ago
Though he usually expects a real name with the comments.
Not sure where you getting this, plenty of people use nicknames and he quotes them in highlights
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
8hr ago
· Edited 5hr ago
Although you aren't technically replying to me, I feel obliged to note yet again that Is =/= Ought. I have no clue why I keep having to spell this out, and in Rat spaces no less.
I am saying that SJ is, probabilistically, less of a problem because there's a fair chance nuclear war gets rid of it rendering most efforts to fight it moot. I am not saying that mass casualties from nuclear war are good because of this. The past couple of election cycles I've been begging all the parties to do anything about civil defence; I'd have been willing to vote for the Greens if they'd had word one about this.
Fair enough, in the end neither am I. Just remember someone posting about it on /r/stupidpol.
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