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Notes -
Random theories about this election I’ve seen discussed so far:
We have left-wing musings that the failure to reach low-propensity voters comes from a “lack” of a left-wing media ecosystem, which makes me scratch my head somewhat, given the disproportionate skew of media to the left. There doesn’t appear to be any introspection or soul-searching here. The issue might not be a lack of left-wing media, but a lack of trust in that media; becoming more online creates a healthy level of skepticism about what we consume, especially as AI becomes more prevalent.
Some pundits are decrying the existence of right-wing echo chambers as corrupting our young men while fleeing to Bluesky and Threads so they don’t have to interact with conservatives. Bluesky “block lists” of conservative voices appeared almost overnight, to overcome the lack of algorithmic protections.
And, of course, everyone’s bringing up their favorite culture war issues as the “reason” why Trump won, but I don’t think it’s that simple. It’s not that factory workers in the rustbelt are transphobic, it’s that factory workers in the rustbelt are tired of someone’s pronouns being given more attention than their grocery bills. Abortion received a ton of support on referendums while their states still went to Trump; is it because we made having children a “women’s issue” instead of an economic one? Telling women they should lie to their husbands who they voted for isn’t a great way to win over men who already feel scorned by today’s society.
I also don’t understand how the party who claim to be championing women and minorities is also the party fighting so hard for mail-in ballots. Secret ballots are a feature of the system, not a bug. Filling out the ballot at your kitchen table makes it really hard to hide it from your husband, or your employer. The weird creepy ads about “people can look up your voting record and won’t date you if you don’t” also don’t help with this, especially when several of these ads didn’t clarify that while whether you voted is public, who you voted for is not. The social stigma of voting Trump is still high, as people get uninvited from Thanksgiving with their own families for leaning conservative.
In the meantime, my guilty pleasure is watching liberal election-denier conspiracy theories. arr “SomethingIsWrong2024” displays a shockingly bad grasp of data analysis, because “all my neighbors had Kamala signs!!” and the like. I feel like I’m in an alternate reality when I see things stated “Vance was a bad pick, no one was excited about him” because I remember the enthusiasm for having someone young and capable on the ticket. Maybe I’m just stuck in my own echo chamber, and don’t realize it; I should do my own introspection.
Legacy media is left wing. New media isn't conventionally left or right, but the most popular versions tend to lean republican.
Now make no mistake, Rogan and Trump are allies of convenience. But they are allies nonetheless and arguing with him about dragons just makes democrats look shrill and out of touch(Rogan's audience, like most normies, answers esoteric paranoid schizophrenia with 'interesting, so, uh, did you see the game last night? How about that weather we're having, huh?).
The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers
The total media dominance in print, tv and web news and the monoculture turned everyone even mildly dissenting to alternative pastures. And there was demand for right wing content and the market delivered.
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They do? Social media, except X, is all on the left too.
Certainly themotte didn't leave Reddit because Reddit was censoring Democrats.
Youtube comments sections have gotten signifigantly further right over the last 3 years. That's basically social media.
The fact that the YouTube comments for Kirby's Air Ride: Item Bounce haven't been closed yet is proof that YouTube doesn't have complete control over ideology on their platform.
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It’s interesting the Dems have been focusing on “we have to figure out a way to get our message out” and not on “maybe the problem is the message.”
The Democrat rank and file seem to have have largely convinced themselves that the Democratic party message is Just Being A Decent Human Being. It's hard to pivot from that to the message being a problem.
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All my neighbors had Kamala signs. I mean, not all, but there were a lot of them. In my neighborhood of several hundred households, I counted exactly one Trump sign. My county went about 3:1 for Kamala, and since it includes Newark I would be very surprised if my particular neighborhood was worse than that (I don't know where to find precinct-level results, unfortunately). So there's likely lots of Trump supporters keeping a low profile.
I saw very few yard signs at all this cycle. I thought everyone simultaneously realized they were cringe.
My immediate neighborhood had very few signs, but there were absolutely places within a 15-20 minute drive where loads of houses had signs for one or the other. Roughly speaking, the places with quaint, walkable mini-downtown shopping area had mostly Harris signs, the people who seemed like they frequently used their pickup trucks to actually haul stuff had mostly Trump signs, and nice suburban houses with big lawns could go either way. (Location: Pennsylvania)
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Ah, thanks. My district actually IS worse than that, close to 4:1... but still, there's a lot less than 20% Trump support visible.
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