domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
9m ago
I mean it’s not necessarily going to be a Return To PreTrump. Somebody will take the crown simply because the sentiment precedes Trump and will be around without him. The MAGA crowd has now tasted real power, if you think they’re going to allow this moment to fade without any significant victories, you’re mistaken. And with that power available, someone (probably someone anointed by Trump himself) will take the cause and run with it.
doglatine
12m ago
I wonder how much Twitter changes this. It really does feel like Musk’s takeover of the platform has had major benefits for non-leftist media and organisation, and perhaps suggests strategies for the right going forward — most crudely, getting RW billionaires to buy space in the public forum.
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
41m ago
IQ appears to be as close to an unalloyed good as it gets. To the best of my knowledge, the markers for most things we consider indicators of a good or successful life positively correlate with IQ, such as overall health, mental wellbeing, income and so on.
Is it theoretically possible that after a certain point, further IQ gains will require horrible tradeoffs (such as an example Scott once brought up of a family that seems to get +20 IQ points at the cost of going blind)? Yes.
But for very large and very meaningful gains, well past the 160s, we have existence proofs that people with high IQs do just fine. Better than you or me for the matter. I'll take plenty more gains along those lines.
zeke5123a
1hr ago
Isn’t it worth looking at the folks who haven’t done as well yet didn’t get their grant pulled? Or all of the other legal nonsense against Musk?
zeke5123a
1hr ago
It truly is amazing how relatively dumb the two dem candidates are. I’d peg both of them as having around 100-110 IQ points.
ABigGuy4U
1hr ago
Neither side is willing to accept a loss, leading to civil war and the collapse of the republic.
Celestial-body-NOS
🟦 All human beings are equal, **even when they aren't.**
1hr ago
I think it started with the Thai cave incident.
As I remember it, they were talking about how their plan, training the children to use the diving equipment, was an extremely dangerous gamble. Mr Musk probably heard this and was trying to offer a safer solution. The chattering classes objected to Mr Musk not privileging social consensus over his own reason (many such cases) and one of the divers told Mr Musk to 'take his publicity-stunt submarine and shove it up his', &c., &c. Mr Musk was probably hurt by the accusation that he was motivated by tribal status-seeking, rather than seeing a problem and trying to fix it; this led to him reaching for the nearest insult he could think of, invoking the widely known image of the Westerner taking advantage of lax enforcement of statutory-rape laws in less well-off nations.
It is my impression that this is when the Blue Tribe started aiming the Two Minutes' Hate at Elon Musk.
Botond173
1hr ago
Unfortunately that seems likely. On a related note, it reminds me what a nonsensical and uninspired term "Generation X" is. It gives you no hint about the peculiarities about that group whatsoever, unlike the terms Boomer and Millennial, and supposedly it didn't even stick, relatively speaking. I looked up the Wikipedia entry on it and it turns out that the term in its multiple original manifestations didn't even carry the definition it does today, which gives us even less of a reason to actually use it.
Latchkey kid, on the other hand, is I think a brilliant and practical term for members of the same generation, it neatly sums up the essence of their lifestyle. It's kind of lame that no such phrase was invented for a) Millennials b) their children.
omfalos
1hr ago
According to the SSA Actuarial Life Table, a seventy-eight-year-old American male has a twenty-five percent chance of dying in the next four years. However, the fact that Donald Trump has no chronic health conditions means his actual chance of dying may be lower than that.
spring
safe, legal torment nexuses
2hr ago
I was pretty deep into image generation at one point and got the following wrong
Fancy Car, pretty obvious in hindsight but when I was looking at it I convinced myself that the headlights and wing mirror had some weird distortions. Rainbow Girl, the way the artist chose to render the hair on the right side of the image is frankly bizarre and I thought the ear was a bit odd. Giant Ship, decided it was AI at a glance based on the subject matter and rendering style. Very obviously CG/photobash if you know that frontier models still struggle with ship rigging and other similar linear patterns. Still Life, didn't notice any obvious tells Paris Scene, thought I recognised this. Even knowing it's AI there aren't many things I can point to as obvious tells. Pretty Lake Colourful Town, wrote this off as AI because I couldn't make sense of the composition
Many correct guesses were with very low confidence. Stylised landscapes and certain outdoor scenes may as well be a coinflip.
Outlaw83
2hr ago
You can have your own views on the Republican bench, and I'll say as a Democrat, in theory, the GOP has plenty of possible statewide elected officials.
But just in the swing states, the Democrat's will have Rueben Gallego, Roy Cooper, Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Stein and that's not getting into somebody like Wes Moore in Maryland. Now, I'm sure you likely don't like anybody I Just listed but those people are all statewide elected officials who have won or in the case of Gallego, will have won solidly in swing states.
2rafa
2hr ago
He was fine. If you disengage from your partisan inclinations and watch Obama, Bill Clinton, even Bush I and II speeches they’re all often very funny and have good jokes. That’s what happens when you hire professionals to write these things for you. Trump’s delivery is fine. He does the job. He’s not embarrassing or bad. He’s also not great or anything.
Pulpachair
2hr ago
Piggybacking for some of my recent watches.
American Fiction - A victim of its maketing. It is 95% upper class dramedy with 5% race farce, but the race farce was all that was advertised. I really enjoyed it, but I quite enjoy Jeffrey Wright’s understated acting style generally. I barely recognized Adam Brody. I initially thought Issa Rae was meant to be the foil, but they both made her more relatable and a blatantly worse human as the story progressed. I enjoyed it, but it is slow and frustrating often. Qualified recommendation.
Promising Young Woman - Bo Burnham steals the show and Carey Mulligan is excellent, but this is MeToo passion play scripting. All men are monsters and anything done to them is justified.
Boy Kills World - needed a tighter script. The gimmick of using H Jon Benjamin to provide the protagonist’s internal dialogue wears out quickly, and the action was pretty uninspired. Do not recommend.
Haywire - Gina Carano playing Jason Bourne, but not a wimp. The action scenes are well done - Gina’s time fighting MMA clearly shows and it looks like she could hold her own against her male opponents. The story is pretty weak and Carano doesn’t have a lot of range other than glowering. Wild to me that Steven Soderbergh directed this - it feels so sterile and devoid of human characters for one of his movies. Qualified recommendation.
jeroboam
2hr ago
Maybe I'm over updating. I'm a huge DeSantis fan who legit thought that he would win the Republican nomination. He is massively popular in Florida. But he couldn't even get off the starting block.
So here's my updated theory. In the current climate, 95% of the media is enemy territory. You need some sort of guerilla strategy to get airtime. Simply having a great track record and great ideas isn't enough. Look what the media did to Vance. If he gets coverage at all in the media, it's heavily negative. Meanwhile, a midwit like Walz gets tons of positive coverage despite having a terrible record and being a phony to boot. So Republicans need to hack the media to win, which is what Trump did in 2016.
The idea that a conventional candidate like Romney or Bush Sr. could thrive in 2024 just seems anachronistic. The elites wholesale abandoned the Republican Party for the Democrats starting around 2010. Without their support, you need something special.
I don't know. I hope I'm wrong.
SubstackNecron
2hr ago
Yeah the breakthrough would be ease of use. Even for the rich IVF is a pain in the ass and typically only done if some major issue is expected.
Magusoflight
2hr ago
I dispute the information was new to the FBI
Magusoflight
2hr ago
Guns have valid uses, do they not?
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
2hr ago
I think I got about 80% right. I'm a bit miffed that
I basically marked all hyper-detailed or overly colorful paintings as AI (with the exception of the first
The oil paintings I tried to classify based on their composition and perspective.
The abstract paintings were the hardest, since I had to resort to thinking about the emotions of the artist. Surprisingly, I got all of them right.
The anime girls were the easiest, because the AI-generated one had that face. It's like there's one AI model in existence for drawing anime girls, and everyone uses it. It's like Lobsters typeface, once you've seen it, you start to notice it everywhere.
P.S. @ZorbaTHut, aren't spoilers supposed to be inline?
jeroboam
2hr ago
I think Trump wins narrowly, low confidence.
One thing that he has against him is his fragile coalition. Although he is ahead in all 7 swing states (projecting for 312 electoral votes), his lead in each swing states is razor thin.
After those 7 states, there is no 8th state which is really in play. Virginia comes closest, but Harris is up by a whopping 6.4 points. That's actually less than Trump's lead in Texas (5.7 points).
So Trump could, just, squeak through, but this coalition is brittle. Texas is just one amnesty away from being flipped Blue forever like California was in the 1980s.
jeroboam
2hr ago
Scott's piece on the Dark Ages really touched a nerve. Even seven years later on Twitter, various people in the rat-adjacent and Silicon Valley spaces pass around charts about how the Dark Ages, were, in fact, extremely real and spectacular dark.
But let's not forget the piece that started it all: https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/10/15/were-there-dark-ages/
As for me, I am going to die on any hill, it's that the Dark Ages were dark. If Kamala wrote that into her platform, I'd vote for her. It's that serious.
TequilaMockingbird
2hr ago
But let's be honest. He'd get slaughtered in the general. High IQ white guys like Vance don't win minority and blue collar voters.
I feel like this is something the Pumpkin-Spice class tells itself to justify not even bothering to try. Reagan, Bush II, and to a lesser degree DeSantis, all being clear counter-examples.
atelier
Jimmys: unrustled
3hr ago
If the Senate is a deadlock and trump underperforms that much in NC, I don't think the Republicans will take the house.
jeroboam
3hr ago
You can already do genetic selection with Orchid, and almost no one is doing it. And the things they are testing for are much higher stakes than a couple of IQ points here or there.
Why is no one using it?
-
Public awareness is low
-
People think it's "wrong" to want to have genetically normal children. Imagine how wrong they will think it is to boost IQ
-
IVF is hard, slow, expensive, and frustrating.
-
Genetic screening makes it harder, slower, and more expensive.
-
Many hospitals won't even work with Orchid. Imagine trying to convince Woke State University to partner with your IQ testing service. So you will need to go out of state to specialty IVF clinics. Harder, slower, more expensive, more frustrating.
I'll eat my hat if more than 10,000 couples per year are using this in 5 years. Until we get gene editing the best way to get high IQ babies will be to choose an intelligent partner and to have children before the mother is 30 years old. This barely moves the needle.
No Chronic health conditions and access to the best care available.
Jimmy Carter made it to 100 (for some values of 'made it') and I'd not be surprised if Trump is kicking at 90.
I upped by assessment of his health when I saw that video of him playing a round of golf.
More options
Context Copy link