SubstackNecron
13hr ago
killing millions of Chinese civilians for the sake of some weird revenge fantasy.
It would shock me if more than 1000 American civilians died in the whole Taiwan war. I am virtually certain more Chinese civilians will die in that war than Americans.
SubstackNecron
15hr ago
I highly suspect that increased military spending is not going to go into support of US interests. I suspect, as I am postulating, that it will be the exact opposite that occurs.
SubstackNecron
15hr ago
Would there be nuclear war
I am of the very strong opinion that before the Taiwan war even happens, both countries' nuclear red lines are going to be made clear and understood by both sides before it kicks off. That might just be hopium but I think it tracks.
SubstackNecron
15hr ago
Because you would presumably not be siding with the US for the opportunity of killing and humiliating a large number of people.
That would be the exact reason except it would be China they are trying to humiliate in this case. No one thinks the US would be fighting for Taiwan for any real existential or even significant material gain. The war would be to humble one side and maintain/shatter US hegemony. I made the distinction of parties because one party being in charge of the hegemony is now probably detrimental to Europe in the short and long term.
Edit: Is it taboo to quote a deleted comment?
SubstackNecron
15hr ago
I would wager that EU defense spending is about to increase dramatically. A Moneys Paw situation if there ever was one.
SubstackNecron
15hr ago
I wouldn't as I am an American but if I were European? Yeah I would be looking to end the US Hegemony right about now. A Multipolar would with China as the other poll would start to look a lot more stable
SubstackNecron
15hr ago
Any more so than siding with the US in its clash with China? Why? It would be a mutually engaged conflict from a third party POV one side is just as valid as the other all things being equal.
SubstackNecron
17hr ago
I don't see how Europe benefits anymore from a MAGA American hegemony than it does from the true Multipolar world that would immediately develop post a crushing US military defeat. I am not trying to be dense here and am open to arguments why I am wrong about this.
SubstackNecron
17hr ago
I mean, guess in my view, the American Red Tribe vs The American Blue Tribe + The entire rest of the world is not a winnable fight. Its such an obvious loser that I don't know why anyone would maneuver themselves in such a manner. Trump is burning every bridge and seems unlikely given his actions thus far to leave much of his cult of personality intact for whoever inherits the mess after his last term.
SubstackNecron
17hr ago
If I am Europe and I had the option to side with China to kill and humiliate a large number of American Red Tribers during or post Trump during a conflict, I can't imagine why I would'nt take that opportunity at this point.
SubstackNecron
7d ago
Your talking to someone literally names SS. I suspect you may not get edifying answers from him on this topic.
SubstackNecron
8d ago
I guess the end point of that is Poland,Itally, Japan and every other major (former) US ally that doesn't already have nukes telling the US to shove non-proliferation right up its ass and developing there own nuclear weapons stockpiles. They would probably even work together doing this.
SubstackNecron
8d ago
If you were Canada & Mexico would you be spinning up a nuclear weapons program right now? I ask because I can't imagine a world where Poland,Turkey,Greace and Germany are not arming themselves with at least 200 warheads each over the next 10 years.
SubstackNecron
20d ago
I agree with you 100% I don't think the lawfare angle is likely against someone as powerful and wealthy as Musk. I don't think it would pan out and if it did it would have years and could be undone. I think for a lot of reasons if the Dems come back into power in a big way the "plane crash" , "heart attack" and "car accident" angles are far more likely.
SubstackNecron
20d ago
It all depends on how things shake out.The political situation in 2028 is so difficult to predict I do not even bother with the actual prediction just what I think will happen given one of the possible outcomes. I think in the worst case scenario for the conservatives/GOP (IE Trump really is the load bearing figure in the whole movement and it just implodes with him diminished and unable to run again) its very possible the courts are just packed and Texas can't do anything at all. I don't thinks that's likely as I don't think legal action is going to be what happens to Musk but I just don't know.
SubstackNecron
20d ago
Elon is both not very good as assessing risk to his person and a very loud public figure. Assassinating him would not be very difficult if you had control of the government and a federal apparatus that supports his death.
SubstackNecron
21d ago
Musk gets a page or two in the history books along with thousands of other people across countries and time periods who played the game of thrones, lost and died.
SubstackNecron
21d ago
Or is the risk that he would get pardoned
Bingo! Yeah I think history is not really kind to people in the modern era that tried to exile people vs just killing them.
SubstackNecron
21d ago
Musk is more likely to die in jail than in Mars.
I have said before and believe more so now that him going to jail is extremely unlikely. I think if the Dems rally and reorganize enough to take advantage of Trump being gone and actually win in 2028, then their new leadership would be smart enough to aim for the head with regards to Elon and not risk just imprisoning him.
SubstackNecron
21d ago
maybe this will be the time that betting against Elon works out for the doubters
I wonder about this. Espically because this is a scenario where Elons fate is not even completely in his hands. What happens if DOGE goes as well as it could but it turns out that the GOP figure out in 2028 that MAGA really was just a Trump personality cult and the Dems sweep back into power anyway? Do you think he flees the country? I can't see a world where they don't imprison/Deposses him at least or just kill him.
SubstackNecron
1mo ago
This would give Trump a pretty compelling reason not to stab Elon in the back. The counter argument would be "Lol" said the Scorpion "LMAO"
SubstackNecron
1mo ago
Is there a single person more fucked in the world, as an individual, than Musk if the MAGA movement does just die with Trump?
SubstackNecron
1mo ago
The house of Bourbon coming back was a dead cat bounce. The aristocracy IE the feudal bloodline rule way of life was dealt a mortal wound when the French monarchy fell it just took a couple of decades to bleed out in the West.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
I'm not one to rebel against my superiors, that's more of a low human capital thing to do.
failed rebellions are this but successful ones are not. If the superiors are defeated in the only arena that really matters they were, evidently, not superior.
I find it hard to believe the US being routed in the South China Sea would lead to Chinese world domination. I don't even think China is much interested in that even if it were possible. The end of the US Hegemony does not entail China ruling the world.
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