SubstackNecron
26d ago
Expound if you will, People always vote against the party that is in power when a big crash happens and that is in circumstances where it isn't immediately obvious who and what caused the crash.
The tariffs discussion has made me realize that some people who praport themselves as intellectual, above the average redditor, are just as childish in there understanding of how the world works just in different ways, often interpreting reality through overly idealized or abstract neoreactionary frameworks instead of lib marvel ones.
SubstackNecron
26d ago
Happily, MAGA does not have to choose between just the two options you listed. There is a middle path where the globalist agenda is crushed via onshoring manufacturing which yes, will increase costs for the coastal elite who own big corporations, but will also raise wages for the working and middle class.
Or alternatively, the economy crashes as it will if the current trajority continues and the MAGA coalition gets kicked in the balls and tossed out of office in 2026 and 2028 after which all tarrif powers are taken away from the president and things are put into place to stop them from ever having this much power again.
SubstackNecron
26d ago
What about the onshoring that is absolutly not going to happen because building new factories requires more time than these tariffs could ever be expected to last? (IE 4 years tops and more likely two years if the Republicans do badily enough in the midterms)
That's the beauty of it: they already tried and that's how he got elected.
No, I mean by someone who is actually capable of killing him. Think more the pratorians finally being done with a particularly insane emperor than a random assassin. This is something that is only going to be able to happen once as I imagine the second Trump is dead/out of office, Congress is taking away the president's tariff powers forever.
SubstackNecron
27d ago
Whether he has the balls to crash the American economy for years to make this transition happen
Isn't it more likely that even if he did have the balls to do this, he is simply liquidated sometime between then and now? I can't imagine all the powers that be and all the money involved just sitting back and letting him burn it all down just for the benefit of his own need to watch things burn.
SubstackNecron
1mo ago
ever in a million years did the people expect that this would fail to move the needle on any of the reasons they voted for it (immigration, economics) or the complete lack of a plan for delivering it,
To be clear you are referring to the people who voted yes to Brexit right? Because anyone else could and did very easily predict all of those things.
SubstackNecron
1mo ago
It's never been remotely permissible as a theory of harm that "now I receive less resources for the same amount of X".
Especially not in America where such people are typically deposited in the great unmarked grave of obsolescence historically.
SubstackNecron
1mo ago
The right-wing rehabilitation of South Africa bears a resemblance to the rehabilitation of Hitler among some on the right.
I mean its the same need that drives communists to insist the modern CCP is definitely a legitimate extension of the socialist project. People who believe in failed ideologies need something to cling to.
SubstackNecron
1mo ago
The problem is that Trump isn’t bad enough for this to work
How does the calculus change in your opinion if he does actually doof everything up by 2028?
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
Well, there will be no crushing US military defeat. Certainly not one orchestrated in any way by Europe.
And if there were one by China you'd be under the boot of an Fascist ethnostate.
I find it hard to believe the US being routed in the South China Sea would lead to Chinese world domination. I don't even think China is much interested in that even if it were possible. The end of the US Hegemony does not entail China ruling the world.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
killing millions of Chinese civilians for the sake of some weird revenge fantasy.
It would shock me if more than 1000 American civilians died in the whole Taiwan war. I am virtually certain more Chinese civilians will die in that war than Americans.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
I highly suspect that increased military spending is not going to go into support of US interests. I suspect, as I am postulating, that it will be the exact opposite that occurs.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
Would there be nuclear war
I am of the very strong opinion that before the Taiwan war even happens, both countries' nuclear red lines are going to be made clear and understood by both sides before it kicks off. That might just be hopium but I think it tracks.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
Because you would presumably not be siding with the US for the opportunity of killing and humiliating a large number of people.
That would be the exact reason except it would be China they are trying to humiliate in this case. No one thinks the US would be fighting for Taiwan for any real existential or even significant material gain. The war would be to humble one side and maintain/shatter US hegemony. I made the distinction of parties because one party being in charge of the hegemony is now probably detrimental to Europe in the short and long term.
Edit: Is it taboo to quote a deleted comment?
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
I would wager that EU defense spending is about to increase dramatically. A Moneys Paw situation if there ever was one.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
I wouldn't as I am an American but if I were European? Yeah I would be looking to end the US Hegemony right about now. A Multipolar would with China as the other poll would start to look a lot more stable
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
Any more so than siding with the US in its clash with China? Why? It would be a mutually engaged conflict from a third party POV one side is just as valid as the other all things being equal.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
I don't see how Europe benefits anymore from a MAGA American hegemony than it does from the true Multipolar world that would immediately develop post a crushing US military defeat. I am not trying to be dense here and am open to arguments why I am wrong about this.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
I mean, guess in my view, the American Red Tribe vs The American Blue Tribe + The entire rest of the world is not a winnable fight. Its such an obvious loser that I don't know why anyone would maneuver themselves in such a manner. Trump is burning every bridge and seems unlikely given his actions thus far to leave much of his cult of personality intact for whoever inherits the mess after his last term.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
If I am Europe and I had the option to side with China to kill and humiliate a large number of American Red Tribers during or post Trump during a conflict, I can't imagine why I would'nt take that opportunity at this point.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
Your talking to someone literally names SS. I suspect you may not get edifying answers from him on this topic.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
I guess the end point of that is Poland,Itally, Japan and every other major (former) US ally that doesn't already have nukes telling the US to shove non-proliferation right up its ass and developing there own nuclear weapons stockpiles. They would probably even work together doing this.
SubstackNecron
2mo ago
If you were Canada & Mexico would you be spinning up a nuclear weapons program right now? I ask because I can't imagine a world where Poland,Turkey,Greace and Germany are not arming themselves with at least 200 warheads each over the next 10 years.
I can't tell if this is a parody of chat GPT or a legit prompt response and I love it.
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