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2rafa
5hr ago
I completely agree, the frequentist view is nonsensical. This is why forecasters need to be nailed down to a specific outcome (or ‘I don’t know / it’s too close to call’ but this has to be acknowledged as opting-out).
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
laws so much as search&seizure ones. Do you have no protections against what ought to be an obviously expansive warrant?
Euro hate speech laws get a lot of press in the US in libertarian and conservative circles, but Europe doesn’t have the rest of the bill of rights either- I mean obviously they don’t have the second amendment, but police powers are just generally broader and the rights of the accused narrower. This is frequently relayed as a culture shock by vets who took advantage of being posted in Italy or Germany or wherever.
urquan
5hr ago
I mean, you’re showing up to your minimum wage job regularly, so you obviously have the capacity to keep up with obligations. Perhaps it’s just a habit. In which case, maybe your solution is pushing yourself hard for a few months to build the habits you need for success!
And this is probably 95% bullshit psychobabble, ignore me if this doesn’t apply to you, but as someone who struggled with procrastination I want to share my take.
Specifically, the fact that you struggle so much with school makes me think there’s something beyond just attention deficits that’s causing you to self-sabotage. My experience is that procrastination and self-sabotage comes from perfectionism and self doubt: in college I had no trouble completing easy assignments on time, but had a lot of trouble motivating myself to work on longform projects like essays, as I felt like I had to do them perfectly. I believe many problems with “self-discipline” actually boil down to feelings of insecurity and avoidance.
You’re obviously very concerned with not failing. Do you think maybe this contributed to your procrastination and avoidance? Were you so afraid that if you tried and failed, it would be a blow to your self-concept, and so you stopped yourself from trying and guaranteed a failure that you could say wasn’t because you were too dumb? Like, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt?”
From your post, you’re analytical and thoughtful — most people in your situation aren’t able to sit down and analyze it as you have, they end up kicked out on the street without realizing what’s going on. And because you’re here, it’s pretty safe to assume that you’re at least above average in intelligence. Are you afraid of disproving that? Are you concerned that doing your all and failing at your 4 year college would make you feel small and pathetic? Maybe you struggle less in your minimum wage job because you consider it below you, easy, and therefore unthreatening? You can imagine yourself being some kind of starving artist, an undervalued renegade, maybe?
Have either of your therapists talked about short-term vs long-term benefits before? Have you looked into what blocks you from doing things, what benefits procrastination provides you in the moment, like emotional relief, even if it destroys your long term goals? Or do you not even get to the point where you know you have an assignment due Sunday night and it’s Sunday at 3pm and you decide not to try?
What’s your associate’s in? What kind of program were you working on at the 4 year college?
FiveHourMarathon
Just a Wawa Stan Account
5hr ago
What city exists that Republicans actually trust?
Until we get annexation of metropolitan areas it's just going to be like this.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
5hr ago
Is probability even well-defined for a one-off event? It's not like we can random sample the multiverse on how the election actually went. At the same time, nothing is absolutely certain (supervolcano as October surprise!).
Maybe it makes sense from a Bayesian perspective: given the current knowledge of the system state (polls, voter registrations, demographics, maybe even volcanology reports) we can estimate the probability of a specific outcome. But a frequentist view seems nonsensical, even if a lot of predictions seem to present themselves that way.
SophisticatedHillbilly
5hr ago
You have to look at their predictions in aggregate. If they predict 20 elections with a 95% chance for party A, and A wins 19 of those 20 elections, then yes they were accurate.
Even if that 1 election was a landslide for party B, the prediction method is accurate. People who say otherwise just aren’t accepting that it’s a percentage chance and not a poll.
DelendaEst
5hr ago
I am pro-life, but I think its a good thing. It means Republicans are looking at what is feasible to do and trying to do that. Few things are as irritating as my side making the perfect the enemy of the good. Compromising too much is abandonment of principle, but standing on principle so firmly that you cede winnable ground to the enemy sort of is too. And now that abortion is not a constitutional matter it is always open to further changes so I'd rather take what I can get now and then keep working towards more later.
DelendaEst
5hr ago
I saw some reporting a few days ago that speculated that part of the movement of black men towards the right (they will still vote Kamala at 80+% but still movement) was driven my crypto concerns. I'm not sure I buy that, but I'm guessing whomever wrote this press release did.
DelendaEst
5hr ago
Nate Silver has written about how the Red Wave that never manifested was in fact never well supported by the polling data and instead was a result of just such an overcorrection so there is at least some evidence in that direction.
gattsuru
5hr ago
The Heltec v3s are really nice boards, whether you want to use them in a Meshtastic setup or just for direct Arduino programming. The API for the latter is a little rough, but unfortunately pretty much every LoRA board is like that given the underlying chips. Only big complaint is that the external antenna cable placement sucks: there's no good way to just zip tie some strain relief in place, so if you end up wanting to use the external antenna (and you should!), either use some potting compound (if permanent), silicone rubber (if semi-permanent) or hot glue (otherwise) the thing into place or it will inevitably work its way loose.
A number of the Heltec CubeCell boards have a built-in solar charge circuit. I'm most familiar with the AB02S, but I think you can get displayless and GPS-less versions with the same capability with options like the AB01. Much more annoying to develop with, given the lack of display, though.
If you're interested in guerilla installs, I'd also look at the LilyGo T-Beams. Including both an 18650 battery slot out of the box is really convenient and a lot more robust than those tiny JST-SH battery leads on Heltec boards (and most competitors like Adafruit offerings). And you can get the simpler version cheap. Avoid other LilyGo equipment, though; the LilyGo TTGO boards are famously bad for batteries.
lagrangian
6hr ago
This week, in review:
High: had a first date that I think I'm actually more excited about than Ms. Definitely, and there will certainly be a second. Not quite as much in common, but still a lot, still brilliant and attractive, and just...better vibes. More stable and peaceful.
Low: buried the dog.
2rafa
6hr ago
Dutch weed is around the 8-15% THC range and it’s nice in Amsterdam, you can enjoy it without becoming a vegetable like on current US strains.
2rafa
6hr ago
I think a different standard should apply for vape oil or whatever and I agree true degenerate stoners are always going to get their fix (same with true alcoholics in places where they make booze hard to come by, like Greenland), but I think if weed was cheaply and easily available in dispensaries but capped at 12-15% (and vape carts etc at proportional levels) most regular people would stick with that.
roystgnr
6hr ago
Then you ignored past evidence. As such, no reason to link it again when you can easily see for yourself if you search.
If it's easy, you should do it and paste the links here.
If it's not easy, but you expect persuadable people (at least persuadable third parties) to be reading, you should definitely do it and paste the links. (this is the case I suspect is true, as a persuadable third party who didn't see anything on the first results page for "gaza doctors access", although I vaguely recall seeing stories along these lines before)
If you don't expect anyone persuadable to be reading, why bother writing at all?
+1 to spaced repetition.
The other technique I will add, which I think underlies memory palaces, is...let's call it "deep engagement." Rather than just trying to remember rotely, deeply engage with the knowledge by connecting it to other knowledge. You've now added multiple recall points to your brain for the single fact, and as long as any of them are intact, you can get the fact.
In the case of memory palaces (which I find overhyped and not personally useful), that knowledge is a location in the memory palace. E.g. if yours is Pokemon, and you are trying to remember a grocery list, maybe you pictured Pikachu eating a watermelon. The element of the memory palace itself (Pikachu) is by design easy to remember. The visual of Pikachu eating a watermelon connects to enough other things (my memories of eating watermelon, a chuckle at the visual there, etc) to provide redundant encoding of "watermelon."
In the case of learning physics, you can:
- (no deep engagement) cram equations in your brain, regurgitate them at the top of a test, then reference them, OR
- (deep engagement) derive them, graph them, do experiments to measure them, think about their asymptotics, etc
In the case of politics, you can:
- (no deep engagement) memorize the latest fact about the advancing troops in Ukraine
- (deep engagement) think about why that movement was made, what might happen next, the experience of the soldiers during it
But is this not just trivial recall that could be handled easily by a computer, or a scrap of paper?
So, no, it isn't - it's redundant encoding that gives you more threads by which to remember. In CS terms, I no longer have to linearly loop through my list-o-facts; instead, I map quickly to the needed fact via any of a number of hashes (connections).
2rafa
6hr ago
Yes, but for a non-repeatable event it’s also very easy for a pollster to say they were right. After all, even someone who predicts a 95% likelihood of A winning can say “well, the 5% likelihood of B winning happened to be the outcome in this scenario, my forecast was in fact entirely correct” and this is completely unfalsifiable.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
6hr ago
Write it down , periodically refer to it by glancing at it and mentally reciting it, at which point it should be easy to commit it to memory. Look for patterns in numbers or words.
stuckinbathroom
6hr ago
But on the plus side, Biden seems to hate Kamala
Source?
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
6hr ago
If you're eating a variety of food groups, don't fixate on protein quality scores. Deficiencies in one food group are made up for by another.
desolation
Eat At JR's Donut Castle!
6hr ago
Harry Byrd Sr.
Huh, they don't seem to be related, especially since the name is because Robert was adopted, but Robert and Harry bear some resemblance IMO. Weird.
Being from West Virginia where 50% of buildings and public structures are named for Robert C. Byrd (citation needed), he's a memorable fella.
self_made_human
Kai su, teknon?
6hr ago
The only reliable/efficient way of memorizing large amounts of information I'm aware of is spaced repetition. I'm too lazy to make Anki cards, but I do try and apply the practice to reviewing the copious amounts of notes I need to memorize, and it does work.
On the nootropic side, ashwagandha is more or less robustly shown (going off last time I read up on it) to have mild benefits for memory. There's not really much you can do to improve it above your usual baseline unless you're a dementia patient needing memory enhancers really.
"Great writers" such as Gwern or Scott both do their best to note down things, and are also blessed with great memory by default, which strongly correlates to intelligence anyway.
falling-star
6hr ago
I pretty much gave up on smoking weed because all the legal options are way too strong. One of these days I'll grow my own weak weed.
phosphorus2
6hr ago
The idea that refugees have to apply for asylum in the first safe country comes from a misreading of Article 31 of the Refugee Convention, which says that refugees can't be penalised for illegally entering a country if they are crossing from a dangerous country to the first safe country. But a refugee doesn't cease to be a refugee just because they illegally cross from one safe country to another - the second safe country can prosecute them for illegal immigration but this doesn't solve the problem that you can't (without violating the Refugee Convention) get rid of them without finding another safe country willing to take them.
My understanding is from the below link, which states (emphasis mine):
What is the Dublin Regulation? The Dublin Regulation determines which country is responsible for considering an application for protection. An asylum seeker can only have his or her application considered in one of the Dublin countries.
The main rule is that an application will be processed by the first Dublin country the asylum seeker comes to. If the asylum seeker applies for protection in another Dublin country, he or she will be sent back to the country that has already considered his/her application or that is responsible for considering the application.
Maybe I am misreading, so I encourage you to post on it.
roche
6hr ago
I'd really love to improve my memory, but the popular approach to this sort of baffles me. Memorizers construct large memory palaces and winding trails to recall specific, precise bits of information, like numbers or the words of a speech down to the letter, and this is synonymous with memory improvement. But is this not just trivial recall that could be handled easily by a computer, or a scrap of paper? Consulting my internal memory palace is no different from consulting a library. And it's obviously additional. When we talk about memory, we really mean that natural faculty through which things float into our mind as they appear relevant, the source of all creativity. This faculty of memory can be improved through exercise and health and frequent use, and reduced through idleness and so on.
...But is that it? This memory pretty much determines your intellectual life, it determines whether a book will benefit you or be meaningless. Memory is everything. So where are the great writers and studies showing how to optimize this function? Surely it's not just "eat vegetables, do cardio, sleep well", right?
Fort Worth, Salt Lake City, and OKC would probably be trusted by most Republicans.
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