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I know very little about prediction markets, so can someone explain to me how likely it is that Trump's surge on for example Polymarket is the result more of speculative behavior than of people rationally trying to predict the winner of the election? I don't really see any reason to currently view the race as being anything other than pretty close to 50-50. People might say well, if I believe that then why not try to make some money on it? And maybe that's fair. But that does not necessarily mean that the betting odds on Polymarket are actually an accurate guide to the likely election outcome.

But what does that mean for the above question, exactly?

Living in a shithole has its advantages. Mainly that competition is a joke.

In America, a Stanford Economics PhD working at the fed is at best a lackey at a Trading Desk. In countries like Colombia, if you have any PhD and work at the central bank, you have real shot at running the printing press.

Now tell me who is more badass. Or influential.

Another example, here in Chile I know a radiologist who moved to the states. Earned real bank there. Strangely returned within a year. His reason?

"I feel richer here"

It was doomed from the start. The "No" ads practically wrote themselves. The Yes campaign had no path to victory. In the Republic referendum, the No campaign argued technicalities "Even if you like the idea of a republic, this specific proposal is bad" - and that would have worked here too. So they gave almost no details and tried to coast through on vibes, then rightly got criticised for asking the public to sign a blank cheque.

As someone who cares about indigenous rights, I was angry at Albanese for introducing the legislation and it all played out pretty much as I anticipated. I did vote yes for idiosyncratic "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good" reasons. The whole debacle set back indigenous relations at least a decade I reckon. Anecdotally, I've seen a marked decrease in "acknowledgement of country" lip service before events/meetings etc in the last year. And now everyone turns a blind eye to the goon squad that rounds up blackfellas in the CBD and dumps them in a park somewhere.

My mistake. I conflated him with Harry Byrd Sr., who never made such a pivot, but also died much earlier.

I don't think the skeptics (hi) doubt that Israelis sometimes do awful things, including shooting children. Or that we believe Israel is noble and innocent.

I do tend to believe that their enemies are among the worst in a generally shitty part of the world. And that people who bring up cherry-picked and carefully described incidents taking anything critical of Israel at face value, and then extrapolate to generalizations about how this is just typical Jewish behavior, do not, in fact, actually care in the slightest about alleged dead Palestinian children, but are happy to invoke dead children if it presents another opportunity to talk about how Jews are lizard-people.

There are plenty of legitimate criticisms of Israel, but it's hard to take them seriously from someone known to hate Jews. I mean, if suddenly you're willing to call interviews by the NYT asking people in Gaza if the Israelis are committing war crimes "high quality evidence" you can surely see why this prompts some see skepticism.

Uh, uranium's an actinide (and thus lithophile), the thing I just said is highly concentrated in Earth's crust (see e.g. here for Sol System vs. here for Earth's crust; note that this somewhat understates the effect because both are normed to silicon being 10^6 and silicon is mildly concentrated in the crust compared to undifferentiated rocky bodies/epically concentrated in Earth as a whole compared to icy bodies). Sorry if that wasn't clear.

The yellow region in the second graph is the highly-siderophilic elements (plus tellurium), which are strongly depleted in the crust, and indeed osmium's one of them.

Running DOS and Windows 9x games natively on fresh new silicon.

https://www.vogons.org/viewtopic.php&t=93480&start=540

https://github.com/eivindbohler/itxllama

https://www.hackster.io/news/the-itx-llama-does-dos-right-ad88bfa80ca6.amp

Going to get in on this. CPU has weak IPC so at 500mhz is equivalent to Pentium 233 MMX. Might pair it with Riva TNT2 Pro AGP, the AGP is just overclock PCI so it isn’t very compatible with newer cards.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=ogHqmjn6sY4

Nothing about his PhD from Princeton. Nothing about running one of the world's largest hedge funds.

Sound decisions, both. It's almost certainly bad for his campaign if voters think he's one of "the elites", and hedge funds have a morally questionable reputation amongst the commonfolk (see also: Romney, Mitt).

I recently bought a Meshtastic board, a Heltec v3. For those who aren't familiar, this is a license-free low-bandwidth LoRA (long range-radio) device that can reach out very long distances on minimal power. The Meshtastic platform is a peer-to-peer network that supports text and data communication, the most notable part being that each device on the network is a node that receives and re-transmits messages to other nodes around them. In areas with good coverage, it means that you can potentially send messages to someone several hundred miles away from a board the size of a pack of gum.

I'm in a metropolitan area but at the base of a hill and don't have a very good connection to the rest of the nodes in my area. If I had the space, I would make a solar node (enclosure, solar panel, charge controller, battery, Meshtastic board, and antenna) and mount it on the roof, but unfortunately I live in an apartment and can't quite do that. However, if I find a good spot in the future, I might perform a guerilla installation somewhere nearby. Ideally it would be somewhere I frequent, since I would need Wifi or Bluetooth to connect to the node with my phone.

You can find a Meshtastic kit on Aliexpress for maybe $35 shipped, I would highly encourage anyone with even a passing interest in radio to pick one up and play around with it for a weekend.

I said it up above, but ill have to say it again. I don't believe aliens are actively visiting earth. I guess I'm just around alien enthusiasts often enough that I know many of their arguments.

I originally responded when someone was asking "why don't they have an explanation for X". I then answered ... they do have an explanation for it. If we are going to get into how good the explanation actually is then I just want to stop, because I don't really think they are good explanations. I'm just saying the explanations and the answers are there.

At some point it is closer to a creative writing exercise for them. Making the most elaborate explanation for the presence of aliens while fitting all the available data. Asking them more in depth questions is not a path towards convincing them, its a path towards more fun for them because it adds on an additional challenge to the mass creative writing exercise they are all involved in.

In the Cyberpunk anime they show how shitty and exploitative the future is by a teenager trying to dry his clothes, but the dryer subscription service runs out so the dryer in his mom's apartment refuses to work. I'd better never have an always-online dryer or fridge looking for reasons to lock up because I haven't paid a service fee or installation updates.

Your bank could freeze your assets for being politically unacceptable.

As the wrong sort of protesters learned in Canada.

You buy them from the supermarket. Obviously.

That's probably a good idea. But black men who are into crypto presumably don't want regulation to "protect" them from it.

The issue with the ambiguity is that people really into crypto are as likely to fill in the blanks with things they're worried about as things they're hopeful about.

Time is running out for that expediency. Its been three months since the one that came within an inch of working.

For what duration? Eventually they’ll age out of the business. Or is this just a sneaky attempt to reenact prohibition in a few decades’ time?

isn't that only 0.3% of the US federal budget. it's just a rounding error :)

TBF to Byrd, the man turned it around so much he got a glowing eulogy from the NAACP, including mentioning his involvement in the VRA.

  1. is nice I guess, though experience shows me that "fixing" other civilization often results in the death of the one being fixed, or in making it much, much worse.

  2. You imply Earth is their garden? How comes if they never been here before?

  3. Only if you happen to be very close exactly at the time it's tested, and open tests have been banned a while ago, very unlikely

  4. That would be weird. It doesn't allow one to neither physically join any galactic communities nor even communicate with them meaningfully, why would that be a threshold? I'd expect if not FTL transport/communication than at least Expanse-style long range propulsion that makes at least populating the Solar system possible. Without it, the only think nukes allow us is hurt ourselves really badly. That's not a good criteria to join anything but an extreme introvert BSDM club.

I thought it meant regulate cryptocurrency investments so Black men don't gets scammed. Not sure if these policies are fleshed out in more detail elsewhere. Possibly, there is no intention to give specific details so people can just fill in the blanks with their preferred policy.

I would support a law that people who were convicted of marijuana offenses during prohibition have the exclusive privilege of owning legal marijuana businesses now.

No need for seeds, soil, fertilizer, regular watering, sunshine, waiting for the plant to flower, etc.

How exactly do you get fruits/berries without seeds, soil, sunshine, rain, waiting etc?

So using "trimester" probably keeps timelines ambiguous, and "weeks" sounds a lot shorter than months

I've heard that the trimester language started being used because of the abortion debate and trying to make convenient bright lines, but I don't know how true that is. Pregnancy isn't really 9 months but rounding generously gives you the three-part structure.

(how many weeks are in a pregnancy? I think most people couldn't answer that without calculation).

Anyone that's been pregnant or close to someone pregnant should know it's (roughly) 40 weeks; appointments tend to be scheduled by weeks rather than months. Outside of the pregnant and adjacent, I'd be surprised if many people get the "right" answer even if they calculate.

A preteen can easily be a child soldier

That Hamas is utilizing 8 year old child soldiers to lob grenades is a level of propaganda that the IDF hasn’t even reached yet. There has been no information coming out of Israel that Hamas is using preteen child soldiers in their operations, neither is there drone or other footage which would immediately shift public opinion in favor of Israel. This isn’t happening.

the doctors who have the internal medicine specialty to be spending time on children shot in the head are, by the nature of their specialty, not going to be the medical experts handling walking-wounded children who got shot in the arm or non-critical parts of the leg but who don't rise to their need

This is not true. Emergency nurses will deal with children shot in all places. As would surgeons, parademics, and critical care doctors. Any child shot is going to see these professionals. There’s not some “child shot in the head super-specialist” at these clinics. I mean, maybe neurosurgeon, but that’s not even a listed specialty in the article. Who do you believe is the lower specialty on whom they drop off the children only merely shot in the abdomen or thigh?