domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
Armin
5hr ago
Notice how the investigation was carried by Hope not Hate, one of the most (public) well-funded radical left wing NGO in the UK.
xablor
5hr ago
Shower thought: conditional on a Harris win in 2024, what are the odds that Trump runs again in 2028? I want a return to the dynamics of pre-Trump elections, where at least the candidates had the decency to act embarrassed at being shown to be corrupt, so the fewer times he gets at bat the better.
He'll have the existing huge demand for populist wrecker policies and style that most politicians can't supply, so the crowd will want him back. The crowd wants him back, so it seems like his narcissism would pull him back in, but his age might preclude it, and a loss might drive him away from Presidential elections via sour grapes.
I don't know much of his psychology, and of course there's four years of unknown unknown developments until then. What other factors can you all identify? How do we beat them all against each other to get a spread of probabilities?
I'd say that I did pretty well, maybe around 80% accurate from eyeballing the results.
The ones that really tripped me up were the abstract paintings (and the ones 'intentionally' made by humans can often look like an explosion in the paint factory in the first place) and some works in an older style. There was a human painting in the last 8 that had really fucked up hands and feet on the dozens of characters, so that threw me for a loop.
Of course with each passing day, it gets harder and harder to tell, and Flux is absolutely solid, though I haven't had the luck of using it yet.
hydroacetylene
5hr ago
You can take out new credit cards.
Look, I think this is a bad idea and your confidence is delusional doomerism. But if you really believed it, the logical answer would be to fund gambling with debt, from new credit cards if need be.
mrvanillasky
5hr ago
Movies
I recently saw a bunch of movies and recommend every single one of them. I will start off with the Oslo trilogy by Joachim Trier. It consists of three excellent movies, all set in Oslo. Triers movies are Norwegian, the dailouges are terse, heavy emphasis on visuals, everyday slice of life action. All the movies show depth of emotions, even in the little things that we feel. I recommend watching all of them IMO, even better if you watch them with a girl you like.
The worst person in the world (2021)
This is a movie girls would like quite a bit since it is the only that has a female protagonist. Becoming 30, not having a fixed career path, and feeling unsure about yourself, the themes here are very well laid out.
- Oslo, 31st August (2011)
This is the most emotionally taxing movie that I have seen in recent times. Set in the duration just one day, this movie breaks your heart, it broke my heart because I am currently in a downward spiral myself, not as bad as drugs like the protagonist but still pretty bad. Watch it, if you only watch one movie from the list, watch this one.
- Reprise (2006)
Trainspotting but with literature instead of drugs but set in norway. My favorite in terms of the joy I got out of it. It is a great slice of life coming of age movie. I love transporting, I saw it on the final day of my 10th grade exams, march 10th, 2016, that was the last time I was truly worry-free since hardcore cram schools begin in 11th. I loved the movie a lot and Reprise is similar as in its themes revolve around male friendships.
- Magnolia (1999)
fun watch, ensemble cast, Tom Cruise is amazing in there though like everyone else in the world, they make pickup artists look like caricatures but otoh, most pickup artists and most people who watch them especially back then were not cool people to be around. The themes in it are far more varied, the casting is brilliant.
- Dunkirk (2019)
The only World War 2 movie I would consider rewatching. It depicts the events of just one day, set about the extraction of soldiers stuck in Dunkirk France. Chris Nolan is an amazing director, this is his only war movie. I was surprised when Quentin Tarantino rated it so highly since I had not seen it, I get what he meant now.
- The Hustler (1961)
This is based on a novel of the same name, the novel was recommend by Todd Valentine, one of the worlds best dating coach, someone who played soccer, poker, chess at decently high levels. Cool watch, first black and white I have ever seen.
- Color of money (1986)
Sequel to The Hustler, with Paul Newman and Tom Cruise now being the hotheaded pool prodigy who is hustling people. It is directed very well and gives a decent send off to the arc that began in The Hustler.
- Deadpool and Wolverine (2024)
All movies cannot be good after, a movie that you have to be 18 to watch, 15 if you wanna enjoy it and 30 if you want ti understand all the pop culture references, can skip if you want to in all honesty. I liked the cameos somewhat, so Chris Evans as the Human Torch with this thick Boston accent or Channing Tatum as Gambit with this over-the-top Cajun accent.
I will halt my movie-watching spree now since I know way too many people who just watch movies all day. After a while the sloth sets in, it happened to me too so I will try to watch less. Ideally, I will keep reading and meditating more alongside taking actions. Still here are some movies I want to watch or rewatch
Once upon a time in Hollywood - Brad Pitts body language is something I want to embody, that is the main reason for rewatching it, I saw in theatres 5 years ago, great movie
Boogie Nights, Fight Club and maybe a few more, I have not seen boogie nights so yeah.
Amadan
You are capable of doing better, more often, and I wish you would.
5hr ago
I don’t think it’s a given that these humanitarian doctors sympathize with Palestinians especially rather than humankind generally.
Most of them are probably not literally Hamas agents or Jew-haters. If you asked them, the average doctor would probably say "I want peace for everyone in the Middle East." However, if you asked them "Who do you think is to blame?" I suspect the great majority of doctors in Gaza would say "The Israelis," and if you asked them (outside of Gaza, where presumably they could answer truthfully), "Do you think Hamas is to blame?" they'd give you answers similar to what we hear from American leftists, that Hamas is a justified/expected reaction to oppression and occupation, October 7 was horrible but the Israelis brought it on themselves, etc. So yes, they are probably mostly humanitarians, but they are humanitarians who would have strong incentives and ideological motivations to be willing to endorse a narrative that the IDF is targeting Palestinian children.
I would wager (total conjecture here) that volunteering in Gaza is actually a coveted position for young medical school graduates. Maybe 1% are accepted. It will probably shift to Arabic-speakers for practical reasons, so maybe that’s a small selection bias.
How many videos from Gaza have you actually watched? I've watched quite a few. Some in Arabic, as I said.
I can't say how "coveted" medical positions there are, but I doubt they are actually that competitive - if you are a medical school graduate who contacts an aid organization and says "I want to volunteer to work in Gaza," I doubt you'd have much trouble being accepted. From what I have seen, the majority of doctors working there are either Palestinians, or European or American doctors who have some Arab/Palestinian ancestry. Not all, but most. I have seen a few who are white or Asian; they mostly seem to come from fairly leftist charity organizations. Something like Save the Children - which does not directly employ medical workers (their thing is mostly providing food and education to children in poor countries). Save the Children doesn't explicitly take a political position on the Gaza war, but they are among those demanding an immediate cease fire. I suspect that the average Save the Children aid worker in Gaza does not hate Jews or support Hamas, but if you asked them "Do you think the IDF is deliberately shooting children?" would say "Yes" because they've heard of it happening and are willing to embrace any narrative that engenders horror and makes a cease fire more likely. I think this is typical of all aid organizations in Gaza. Look at Medicins Sans Frontieres. Are they explicitly anti-Israeli? No, but it's pretty clear who they think are the victims and who are the responsible parties.
You are clearly impassioned in this particular topic.
That's a tell too. You're right that it's tiresome. Insisting that someone is "impassioned" because they have a point of view is just a windy way of saying "You mad bro?" or "Why so serious?" If I used less words my posts would be too low effort to rebuke your voluminous walls of text; when I use more words: "Wow, why do you care so much? Must be because you're a Jeeeew!"
I don't particularly have a passion for Israel - I have stated before that I actually don't like Israel that much, I just dislike their enemies more. I do think the plague of Joo-posters is corrosive to reasonable discourse, because they are (without exception) disingenuous both about the facts and about their motives for posting. So it is one of the topics where I'll weigh in, because while I don't want to ban shitty points of views, I don't want to let them dominate the discussion and claim the field.
SubstantialFrivolity
I'm not even supposed to be here today
5hr ago
I will narrow my reading focus down, trying to just read and having 20 books open is not very fun for a green new reader like me.
Nobody should try to read 20 books at once, lol. That's way too much. Gotta focus them down one at a time, imo
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
5hr ago
In order to have a risk-free outcome you'd need to arbitrage against a different site that had better odds for Harris. Say for example the odds were 50/50 on site X. Then you could essentially bet infinite money on each site at no risk (assuming you are certain to get paid for winning!). You could freeroll Harris by betting Polymarket $100 Harris and X $100 Trump, giving you a guaranteed return of $250 if Harris wins (net +$50) or $200 if Trump wins (net 0). Or you could guarantee a few bucks either way by reducing your Polymarket Harris bet to $80, where the nets would be Harris +$20 or Trump +$20.
These situations can be massively profitable IF you are guaranteed to collect, there are not significant tax considerations, etc., etc. Accordingly they are pretty rare for things like sports betting. There are actually syndicates and other operations who do this all day every day by watching price differentials across markets.
Folamh3
5hr ago
Unrelated but I love your username. I was thinking the other day that Vanilla Sky might have one of the best licensed soundtracks of any Hollywood movie, it's up there with Tony Hawk's Pro Skater in terms of how many cool artists it introduced me to. Case in point.
Crowstep
5hr ago
I do agree that I don't expect this to change the world drastically. Most babies will continue to be born the old-fashioned way.
But you're assuming that this technology doesn't change the kind, or number of parents that get IVF. Think about tiger parents who send their three year old children to pre-MBA programmes. Do you think they wouldn't be willing to do something that actually makes a difference to their future children's outcomes? Even if it is only 2 IQ points, that's worth more than violin lessons or debate club.
Plus, we can reasonably expect the price to come down as more companies enter the space (there are already two that I know of). Soon enough, I expect the current 'doctor eyeballs the embryos to decide which one to implant' to be replaced with genetic testing in most IVF clinics. If you're already paying for the IVF, why not pay a little extra to give your future child a better chance in life?
mrvanillasky
5hr ago
I will narrow my reading focus down, trying to just read and having 20 books open is not very fun for a green new reader like me. I will read Petersons 12 rules for life and post a review of it. I will read more stuff similar to what he writes, what was recommended to me by you guys, The Now Habit I mean, stuff that will help me understand my issues and have some actionable advice I can implement.
Besides movies, I had just been chilling, I unfortunately started surfing the internet a little bit since I was free but it just makes me angry as opposed to reading which makes you feel better. Like most weekends when its not hot, there will be polo matches being played in my city.
My family gets season invites to polo matches here. The current his highness of my city plays for the national team and since hs grandfather himself played it quite a bit, the polo season here is far better than anywhere else in India. The matches are barely one hour and after that we all proceed for high tea. I go to these matches since they give me an excuse to leave my house. There is not much to be done here. The sport is scary, you fall from horses and can get trampled over. I would love to play it a little bit once I am not broke lol.
My parents also took a weekend away from my house and I am super happy about that. They are in Bikaner, my dad was invited to the all India political science conference or something. My ma likes travelling like most women would but because of property disputes, we have super distant relatives illegally squatting in a portion of our house (besides the fort, I fucking hate India man). My dad is a total couch potato so this is their first trip alone in years that too came about because of the large conference. Not related to me but does make me happy that they went out.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
5hr ago
That would really bug me.
Primaprimaprima
Bigfoot is an interdimensional being
5hr ago
The answer key is the first comment on the post
Does campaigning in swing states make a difference? If so, how? Are there people who weren't planning on voting for Kamala/Trump who suddenly will make the effort just because they delivered a speech somewhere in the state? Or does this effect only work on people who actually show up to campaign rallies? And if so, does it help at all, since I doubt there are truly undecided people who would spend time going to a campaign rally?
And who goes to these rallies/speeches, anyway? What kind of person thinks that's a fun afternoon? I'd rather Google what Trump/Kamala believe, make a decision, and then do pretty much anything else. I'd probably rather go to the dentist to get a cavity filled than sit through a political rally, at least I'll leave the dentist's office better off.
Does anyone go (or know folks IRL who go) to these? Can you explain why? And do they really increase voter turnout or generate new votes?
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
6hr ago
I don’t think it’s a given that these humanitarian doctors sympathize with Palestinians especially rather than humankind generally. I also don’t think that sympathy to Palestinian kids in their practice would lead to biasing their answers to a survey. There’s a subset of doctors who seek out wild ways to help people, and there is no wilder or more attention-grabbing way to help people than volunteering in Gaza. I would wager (total conjecture here) that volunteering in Gaza is actually a coveted position for young medical school graduates. Maybe 1% are accepted. It will probably shift to Arabic-speakers for practical reasons, so maybe that’s a small selection bias. It beats potentially getting malaria in Africa or helping alcoholic Appalachians in West Virginia.
that’s a tell
There’s no tell. I remember almost zero biographical details of any posters. Google tells me that your name is Gaelic for fool. Why do you think the Irish are so critical of Israel — are they all secret anti-semites too? You are clearly impassioned in this particular topic. Slippery this, that’s a tell that, Jew-hater there, alt accusations yonder… it’s all so tiresome .jpg
TequilaMockingbird
6hr ago
Good point.
jeroboam
6hr ago
Assuming the technology works, it won't be a big deal. For one, the differences in IQ between siblings tends to be small.
More practically most people who use IVF only have a few embryos. Older mothers especially will have fewer. And many or most embryos either won't be viable or will have other defects that dominate a small IQ effect.
So even though this will be sold as some sort of Gattaca situation, in practice it might end up with a mother choosing an embryo with an IQ of 110 +/- 15 over one with an IQ of 108 +/- 15. And the cost of $50k for such a small benefit will dissuade all but the richest people.
Crowstep
6hr ago
I wouldn't be so skeptical. As the article says, the first embryos have already been implanted. Plus, Heliospect is not the only company offering this service. Steven Hsu's company Genomic Prediction did the same thing for eccentric pronatalists Simone and Malcolm Collins. The first embryo selected child (that is publicly known) is toddling around a house in Pennsylvania.
Testing123
6hr ago
Can we see the answers without being a subscriber?
While I don't have any hard evidence, this thing trips my "scam" intuition big time.
The only "scam" that seems likely here would be overstating the potential. It doesn't look like they're doing anything that isn't already routinely done with IVF, they're just getting more specific and detailed about it, connecting it to current best-understanding data on genetics. IVF clients are already routinely informed of the sex and "strength" of the embryos created, along with obvious stuff like "this embryo has trisomy 21" or whatever. Since there isn't a "big IQ" gene, the best they could do with this particular measure would be "given our current best understanding, embryo A is X% more likely to have increased IQ than embryo B."
That is still a long, long way from doing things like bioengineering superhumans. As the Gattaca line goes--"Keep in mind, this child is still you. Simply--the best of you."
EDIT: On reflection I guess my biggest worry about this is that it could exacerbate a certain poorly-understood trend.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
6hr ago
Personally, I always click once on the upvote button (turning it to a pale blue color that's barely distinguishable from the default gray) and then once on the comment itself (turning the upvote button from barely-visible pale blue to very-visible dark blue).
I actually encountered a friend of mine confusing this a couple of years ago. He had never heard the term before, and when I explained to him the generation it was a label for, he commented how stupid it was to make the label based on a video chat app. I had to inform him that the term came predated 2020 and came from a combination of "Generation Z" and "boomer."
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