domain:x.com
Tanista
3hr ago
Pew seems to think it's just about even
CNN, citing Pew (I can't find that specific set of figures and can't dig in now*) it used to be heavily Democratic and now is more or less even
* Maybe it was a bad idea to shift to "X"
dovetailing
3hr ago
Sure, but the "uses women's bathroom" behavior doesn't add any additional strangeness on top of the "made permanent changes to body and lifestyle" part.
vorpa-glavo
3hr ago
No, for. My position is that freedom sometimes makes people worse off, but in the vast majority of such cases we should still let people be free and have the bad outcome.
To tie it back to the trans issue. I would be okay with the government banning kids from transitioning, but against the government preventing adults from transitioning - even if reliable information emerged that medical transition lead to worse outcomes than the alternative. People should be allowed to sterilize themselves, allowed to cut off their breasts, and be prepared to face all consequences of it.
This is also why I favor tattoos and piercing being legal, even if I personally dislike them and suspect they have long term effects on employability and life outcomes.
Rov_Scam
3hr ago
It's also dependent on the level of interaction. Passing to a friend or coworker is going to be harder than passing to someone they interact with as a bank teller or cashier. In the context of public restrooms, this would be the easiest place to pass, in that they're only spending a few seconds dealing with strangers who probably aren't paying them much attention.
dovetailing
3hr ago
Maybe we're talking past each other but the thing I think is unlikely --- conditional on his making permanent changes to his body --- is that the whole thing is just acting out a fetish. Most people with fetishes don't make permanent changes to their bodies or try to constantly act on them in public, and the ones who do are generally disturbed and disregulated enough that they'll get themselves into trouble with undeniably inappropriate behavior pretty quickly.
MotteInTheEye
3hr ago
I can't. I use the mobile website for Facebook itself but I had to install the Messenger app to send messages.
SkoomaDentist
3hr ago
You can use it via the mobile website, too.
dovetailing
3hr ago
I was objecting to the implication that we're evolved to see women as morally superior, not to the corresponding claim that "protect women" is to an extent hardwired.
NunoSempere
3hr ago
Stuff I'm tracking this week
Top items:
- Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea cut, Germany and Finland fear, sabotage suspected
- Ukraine fired UK, US missiles into Russia. Russia retaliated by sending an ICBM-lite missile into Ukraine
- Sweden sent a brochure to its citizens "in case of crisis or war". Seems worth reading
- The Adani empire is stumbling a bit.
T-Mobile hacked as part of a broader Chinese effort.
Nearly 100 trucks carrying food for Palestinians were looted in Gaza. Hamas security forces retaliated by killing over 20 gang members involved in the looting. Israel cited distribution challenges as the main obstacle in aiding Gaza.
China-Pakistan to conduct joint military/anti-terrorist exercise
Maybe worth purchasing big ticket items soon, before Trump tariffs hit.
DeepSeek will release large models
Russia / Ukraine heating up a bit.
volcano erupted in Indonesia.
US Secret Service using data from phones to locate users, without a warrant
Talks between Hezbollah, Lebanon and Israel are ongoing, with talks being between Israel and Lebanon, and Israel wanting to preserve its ability to attack Hezbollah if needed.
Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US-supplied longer range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia
Deutsche Welle reports that a chance in Russia's nuclear doctrine preceeded the US allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons.
300 Colombian mercenaries killed in Ukraine, out of 500 that went there
Russia has begun production of nuclear shelters
Russia Today, a Russian state-affiliated media outlet summarizes the key changes in Russia's new nuclear policy
CNN looks at some satellite images of the infrastructure damage in Ukraine
China and Russia are acting together in the Artic
Special US-Russia Hotline To Defuse Crises Not In Use, Says Kremlin
Zelensky gave an interview to Fox News, in which he recognizes that Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to survive without US support.
Greek Intelligence declassifies reports on 1974 coup and Turkish invasion
Pakistan starts a larger operation against Balochistan terrorists
US arms stockpiles strained by Ukraine, Israel support, says the head of US Indo-Pacific Command.
First case of clade I mpox diagnosed in the US
Trump seemed to confirm on Truth Social that he'd declare a national emergency and use military assets to institute a mass deportation program
WHO added another mpox vaccine to their emergency listing. This allows countries & procurement processes to coordinate a bit better around acquiring it.
EU isn't cutting antibiotic use fast enough to slow antibiotic resistance, the EU CDC says
H5N1 bird flu infects six more humans in California, Oregon
Here is an overview of nuclear events
Here are a few bullet points on the "Talibanization of Bangladesh"
Throwaway05
3hr ago
I actually know a physician who ended up with this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statin-associated_autoimmune_myopathy
Dean
3hr ago
It looks like it was just the kinetic vehicle with no nuclear warheads.
Is that supposed to be surprising? Russia has been conducting missile strikes for years with nuclear-capable missiles (not least because most of their modern missiles are nuclear-capable).
Russia using an ICBM is just a symbolic tit-for-tat for the US ATACMs range release. It's not a particularly cost-efficient delivery platform, but is intended to play into the recent implicit saber-ratling as a demonstration of capability.
Felagund
3hr ago
He likes data, and is good at stats. Here's his substack: https://www.cremieux.xyz
dovetailing
3hr ago
Surely it's less strange than all the other stuff he's done to get to this point, right? Like, a random guy in drag insisting on using the women's room, that's separately a strong signal of weirdness/sketchiness. But if he's convinced himself that he's a woman at this point, and (quite possibly, though I couldn't say for sure) been on hormones and had surgeries to get there, then surely that's the strange part, not the part where he subsequently wants to use the women's restroom.
TIRM
3hr ago
Nah. I'm rock solid correct. Some people are just terrible at judging risks. Europeans on bicycles especially.
07mk
3hr ago
I feel like the entire rest of society, particularly the woke end has decided that the rape of women is a small price to pay for feeling progressive about letting transgender women into women’s spaces — without vetting at all.
I think what's more accurate is that they've convinced themselves that it simply "doesn't happen", or that "no one transitions just so they can use women's bathrooms".
This doesn't seem more accurate, but rather the "how," to the quoted part's "what." Deciding that such a cost is worth the benefit can be very unpleasant, depending on what the costs and what the benefits are. So unpleasant, that many people might be unwilling to make such a decision if they perceive it that way. So they decide to perceive it a different way, by convincing themselves that the cost isn't actually real, which allows them to make that decision. I see this pattern repeated all the time both in culture war contexts and not.
jkf
3hr ago
if he's actually on hormones for 10 years, and made permanent changes to his body, I don't think that's very likely.
What's so unlikely about it? Implants are usually... pretty permanent as well, it's not like he's swapping them in and out.
I agree that the 'wearing' addition is an odd turn of phrase, but 'fake breasts' to me applies equally well to ones produced by hormonal as surgical intervention.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
3hr ago
Oh definitely. The first trans friend I had, I did not clock him, but that’s only because I assumed he was just a very unfortunate-looking and unfortunate-sounding woman. This was when trans was starting to get public attention but before it was everywhere; if I’d known then what I know now, I think my “trans alarm” would have gone off, but I agree that there are some women out there (“stone butch” lesbians, people with medical situations) who also risk setting off “trans alarms”.
We need a definition of what passing means before we can test, or even properly argue over it.
Passing is on the one hand used by TRAs to mean "polite people treat me as a woman when I obviously visibly signal that I wish to be treated as such." Which almost everyone can achieve.
On the other hand, anti trans types define passing as "absolutely no outward indication whatsoever of any physical difference from a median/modal member of the target sex." Which no one achieves.
The degree to which someone passes is also dependent on context.
If I saw a tall masculine looking middle aged woman at mass, I would assume she was an unfortunate looking tall woman. Even a slight mustache wouldn't throw me off.
I assume everyone at Pride Night at my rock climbing gym may not be what they appear. The slightest hint of GNC and I'm going to be circumspect.
It would be tough to account for all that in testing.
ETA: Two differing study designs that would likely yield different results, both of which would measure "passing" in different ways.
-
"You're going to talk to a series of 20 people. Some of them are trans. Please indicate which people are trans on your scantron sheet. The more you get correct, the more money you will receive on your way out."
-
"You're going to talk to a series of 20 people. After you finish, please write down a description of each person in order."
I posit that very few trans people will "pass" in test 1 unless it's really rigged, and that a great many CIS people would get false positives. On the other hand, under test 2, I think a good number of people would not write down "trans" or "obviously (other gender)" in the description for trans people.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
3hr ago
Hunter Schafer would be the one I think a lot of people would point to as the pinnacle of “passing trans”. I won’t go so far as to say that Schafer looks “obviously like a man”; rather, Schafer is in a weird sort of androgynous zone. Certainly not someone I would ever see as an attractive woman, but I can imagine not clocking Schafer if I passed him on the street.
Stellula
3hr ago
Has McBride done that?
No, but what he has done (until recently) was insisted on coming into the women's restroom, which is really strange behavior.
Any guy who is making a big deal about wanting to go into the women's restroom, or the women's locker-room, to the point where the speaker of the house has to address it, and women have to come out and fight to stop it is acting inappropriately.
dovetailing
3hr ago
The voice is, yes, usually a giveaway. But there are a lot of masculine-looking actual women out there (even some with deeper voices) due to genetics / endocrine issues, to the point where I'd be often be uncomfortable guessing --- certainly from looks alone --- whether a given person is a lucky MtF or an unlucky actual woman if encountered out of context.
jkf
3hr ago
Putin apparently now says it was an IRBM, aimed at some kind of missile factory in retaliation for Biden's long-range weapon approval:
https://weapons.substack.com/p/the-fake-icbm-ukrainian-propaganda
If that's how TRAs use "passing," I've never encountered it, and it also seems like a vapid meaning, because the "polite" in your quote tends to refer to the characteristic of submitting to such wishes.
The way I understand it, the "test" that's being "passed" in this context is essentially the trans Turing Test (Turansing Test? Turans Test? Trunsing Test?). Now, obviously there are many tiny nuances and details of what qualifies as passing the Turing Test, but broadly, I think the idea is that, after interacting with a trans person, you can't tell that they're trans, then they "pass."
There are likely multiple ways to measure something like this. One theoretical study I imagine, blinded test subjects would interact with a group of people, some trans, some not, and then answered what sex each person they interacted with was born as. If a trans person had >50% of people answer as the opposite of their birth sex, that person would "pass." Another option would be to have test subjects interact with pairs of people, one trans and the other cis, of opposite sexes and the same gender, and if the subjects can correctly guess the trans person at >50% rate, then that person doesn't pass. Could also adjust it to be 1 trans and 9 cis, and if the rate is >10%, or any variation of this, I suppose.
The context also certainly matters a lot, but that can be both controlled for and also studied, to see how people's ability to "pass" change in different environments. What I'd personally love to see is correlations on the type and length of interaction. If you're just talking to someone, does their chance of "passing" go down or up as time goes, and is there some inflection point at which the "passing" rate suddenly skyrocket or plummet? What about if you add hugging to the mix? What if you're in a group setting, where all the other test subjects are confederates who have been instructed to treat the trans person like they do/don't "pass?" What if activities involving physical strength or severe emotional topics are involved?
It'd be fascinating to see some break down just what specific characteristics and interactions maximize and minimize the odds of "passing." It could give birth to a sort of "trans-o-sphere" equivalent of the "man-o-sphere" where trans people optimize on the traits that allow them to "pass" most effectively and efficiently, following a sort of "passMaxxing" strategy, if you will.
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