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domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com

Yo I forgot Lou and he did that!!! Thank you for reminding me; one more reason the Hoovers are among my personal heroes.

That just moves the supply chain attack from the OEM to the second battery supplier. Now you get to carefully inspect those batteries for hidden modifications.

As another poster pointed out, the language you use to the describe them, and apparently the way you talk to them, convinces me that you still see women in a negative light, even if it's unconscious.

I would recommend praying to a motherly goddess and asking for revelation, but I'm a weirdo. Can also try to get female friends that you swear to never date, and be vulnerable in asking them for advice.

Okay, now I want a zombie movie where uninfected dogs help human zombies find living humans, and while the zombie eats the brains, the dog eats the rest.

Agreed it is a bad example. You’re in the edge case for dog culture: a well-paved city, the concrete jungle, where woofers wouldn’t tread were they human-less.

In the country, working dogs are worth their weight in silver. In the suburbs, they’re indeed a superstimulus for friendship/childrearing, but also induce friendliness betwixt dog people, and function as alarm systems.

My intuition is that the opposite happens because there's more people in the middle, and so pandering to the middle is more useful. At least in swing states where pandering actually matters.

Is there any actual evidence of moderates voting less than extremists?

Your previous stories/posts were full of fascinating small details about life as an infantry grunt and made great connections to larger themes in both politics and life. The stories had a bend of humility and grandiosity that was riveting.

This post, in contrast, is super boring. You sound like a Kvothe-wannabe (which I know you're not). I don't care what you write about, just get back to writing actual autobiographical stories, and we will all gladly read them.

Yeah we have free travel of goods and people in the USA, banning a guns in chicago etc...was never ever going to work.

I think those are way more long-range than walkie-talkies.

It looks like they finally disabled old.reddit, which was the only thing keeping it usable (sidebar features, the comments feed, etc.)

...anyone who drives commercially.

Agreed it would take at least a decade of permanent citizen firearm disarmament for American politicians to turn full tyrant.

But I bet in that time, the combined rage and innovation of the new “guncels” will come up with a ranged weapon which is deadlier or safer, or both. I’m guessing phasers with stun and kill.

I’m betting on Elon’s STEM minions finding the end-run around the gun ban.

Ah, the old “vape that’s actually a lightsaber” trick.

Lying about “prospects” seems pretty hard to prove because they’re predictions.

So's estimating the value of an asset. Until you put the asset on the market and find out how much someone is willing to pay, you are only trying to predict what someone is going to be willing to pay for it.

There are certainly tools one can use to have a basis for estimating the value of their assets, but that is also the case for valuing a startup.

As a stupid counterpoint, we had a chicken chain try to move in recently. Super Chix. Good sandwiches at high prices. I think they lost out hard to the existing (and ever-expanding) force of Chik-fil-a.

This isn’t an argument against the general principle, but it is a reminder that there’s more than one way to lose money. Whether or not we eradicate a species has less to do with our stated preferences and more to do with its particular habits.

I'm pro-emotional connection and anti-slut shaming

These aren't mutually exclusive in your model?

Couldn’t you say Wall Street kind of works like this? Bonuses are allocated to different desks based on their P&L and are usually a larger % of comp than salaries are for more senior employees. Also professional services like consulting, law, accounting etc. are typically “eat what you kill” at the partner level at least and directly measure employee productivity through billable hours

Short answer: Yes, it's human to think about these things.

Longer answer: For what it's worth, I had similar feelings, occasionally, before getting married. Almost 10 years in now and it's good stuff.

My experience with all relationships and partners is you have to choose what's important to you. Nobody rolls nat 20s on all their stats. Do you want a sharp-tongued, aggressively driven woman? Prepare to be exhausted fighting about stupid shit and being emasculated every once in a while. Do you want a demure mother of your children? Prepare to have to be exhausted leading the household all of the time. Do women want a ripped god? Well then he'll be eating like a bird and working out all the time. Do you want material comfort and money? He may not be as attractive as the former.

Consider those pros and cons and what is truly important to you. Bluntly, I am primarily driven by sex and did not optimize enough on this parameter when selecting a partner, and overshot on almost everything else. What is the evergreen desire you want out of your relationship? And for the love of god, shuck away the confines of what "the culture" demands of you. You are under no obligation to get married because you've dated for a while, and you're under no obligation to marry some uber-female who puts you in your place all the time.

Is there a defined end date to the long distance? Have you dated in-person for most of the relationship? How is the sex (Note that this is separate from physical attractiveness)? Have you dated someone previously who gave you the "Jazz" you're looking for?

A nitpick, but Hoover’s magnum opus was definitely a certain translation project.

Novocheboksarsk sounds intriguing.

Can you imagine being a Springfielder with a third of your town suddenly replaced by foreigners - your schools swamped with ESL kids, your car insurance tripling - because your mayor wants to bilk the feds out of craptons of money on his shitty apartments?

Union leaders are professional activists getting very nice checks for playing nice with democrats.

I disagree with you. This editorial is very bad, and Chuck Todd should feel bad for writing it.

The problem with political discourse in America right now is that we are all stuck in a social media funhouse mirror booth. What we see isn’t what is, and how we’re seen isn’t who we are. And yet, here we are.

This isn't new. Herbert Hoover's magisterially-dyspeptic magnum opus goes into microscopic detail about all the ways various FDR-administration officials and allied journalists lied and slanted the truth to manage and manipulate public opinion during the depression, New Deal period, and WWII, and the number of people who remember or care today round to zero. Heck, even the "really famous" examples like the NYT lying about the Holodomor in Ukraine, or rabidly defending the Lindsay administration in NYC at the time, then excoriating it in Lindsay's obituary, are just cocktail-party trivia and not seriously internalized lessons.

Come Jan. 21, we all are going to be living in the same country and sharing the same group of people as our elected representatives. We need leaders who accept that there are major political differences between us and that governing needs to be incremental and not radical.

How do you get "incrementalism" from "the country is politically-divided"? It really smacks of "we just need to make sure we boil the frog slowly so it doesn't jump out." No instinct towards actual compromise or even honest open conflict; just dishonest slow-rolling and gaslighting about ultimate endgames until it's too late and the fait accompli can be imposed on a prostrate foe. Of course, this strategy also has the side-effect of not being at all concerned with actual quality of governance in the mean-time...if you're suffering from a gushing stab wound, incremental care, one bandaid at a time, won't stop you from bleeding out even if stitches or cauterization would really hurt in the short-term.

Right now, our political information ecosystem doesn’t reward incrementalism or nuance, instead punishing both and, more to the point, rewarding those who make up the best stories.

Our political information ecosystem is primarily geared towards rationalizing already-extant beliefs. That's how you get in people's customized algorithms - feeding them plausible-sounding affirmation of things they already believe. It's not a question of "nuance" or "incrementalism" - what do those even mean in the context of journalism? That you shouldn't report facts if it looks like they lead to an "unnuanced" conclusion or one that is a radical departure from current consensus? And why do we think that our information delivery system should be characterized by the same qualities as policymaking in the first place? To even ask the question betrays the degree to which unbiased investigation has been subordinated to ideological preference.

Here is a dump of some stuff I'm keeping track of; happy to get thoughts on any of it. Warning that these can look pretty worrying when joined together, but stuff of similar severity happens about every week. The context for these is that I'm trying to anticipate crisis that could spiral out of hand, and I have alerts and software that processes large amounts of news and highlights some of the more worrying ones.

A United Nations statement by the UK https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-increased-military-cooperation-between-russia-iran-and-dprk-poses-an-unacceptable-threat-to-global-security-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-cou

Pagers exploded, killing many Hezbollah terrorists https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1836051026673119719 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/dozens-of-hezbollah-members-wounded-after-pagers-explode-in-lebanon Here are some expert opinions: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/what-experts-make-of-israels-ingenious-hezbollah-pager-attack/

Israel has been re-establishing deterrence since it was badly undermined last Oct. 7. Like the recent assassinations in Lebanon and Iran, and Israel’s attack on some Iranian air defense sites in April, this attack is meant to remind Hezbollah of Israel’s technical sophistication and its willpower. Israel is trying to make it clear to Hezbollah and Iran that it does not fear escalation. Hezbollah will respond, but this attack will make them realize they are more vulnerable than they think

Initially 2k, now up to 4k. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836097128747151422 Images: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836061232433930309 Iranian ambassador to Lebanon also injured Here is a video in a hospital: https://x.com/WachtelDan/status/1836038754756145515

WhiteHouse meeting on mpox https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/16/readout-of-white-house-convening-on-mpox/ https://www.state.gov/digital-press-briefing-u-s-government-support-to-the-global-response-to-mpox/

Big google could hack https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/researchers-uncover-rce-exploit-in-google-cloud-millions-of-servers-at-risk https://www.tenable.com/blog/cloudimposer-executing-code-on-millions-of-google-servers-with-a-single-malicious-package

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-president-hijab-women-morality-police-b2613978.html

https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2024/09/czech-republic-reports-avian-influenza-outbreak H5N1 outbreak in the Czech republic. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-reported-bird-flu-outbreak-farm-woah-says-2024-09-16/

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/houthi-official-says-us-offered-recognize-sanaa-government-us-official-denies-2024-09-16/

Reuters on secret service https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-apparent-trump-assassination-attempt-highlights-secret-service-strains-2024-09-17/

Putin to increase size of Russian army https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/

In a decree published on the Kremlin's website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen.

Speculations about how they did this https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836113607572230358

WHO flags limited mpox testing in epicenter DRC https://www.voanews.com/a/who-flags-limited-mpox-testing-in-epicenter-drc-/7784829.html suggests that actual number of cases is higher

Israel says missile from Yemen fell in central Israel https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-army-says-missile-yemen-052624033.html

First conviction under Hong Kong's new national security law for wearing "seditious" T-shirt https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/first-conviction-under-hong-kongs-new-national-security-law-wearing-seditious-t-2024-09-16/

Iran hanged Baloch liberation group leader https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/20/iran-executes-jundullah-founder-abdul-malik-rigi/

Follow up attacks with walkietalkies https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-pagers-explode-hezbollah-israel-09-18-24-intl-hnk/index.html

Militants in India's Kashmir are proffessionalizing https://tribune.com.pk/story/2497064/iiojk-intensified-militancy-and-the-bewildered-indian-army

UNICEF aiming to fundraise 58M https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/unicef-global-mpox-preparedness-and-response-children-september-2024-february-2025 salhattab@unicef.org

North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles in latest military display, neighbors say https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-ballistic-missile-tensions-af75c31d24dc53b0ae0db7260458563b

Meta and Youtube ban Russia Today https://countercurrents.org/2024/09/meta-platforms-and-youtube-ban-rt-worldwide/

Gavi to buy 500,000 mpox vaccine doses from Bavarian Nordic https://www.yahoo.com/news/gavi-buy-500-000-mpox-084946643.html

More details on the exploding pagers https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html

I am a white man, so I can imagine it, since white men have been dehumanized for years now by various people.