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FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
20m ago
There are other plausible lines, but yours is just getting more and more strained and implausible.
I don't understand how communication has broken down so badly - I'll take the blame and assume it is just my communication skills failing here, because I've never seen anyone unable to grasp the concept of return on investment before. That's the line! If you are making decisions about energy usage, determining whether an activity or idea returns a net positive amount of energy or a net negative amount is extremely useful. Let's use a solar panel for example - you have to invest energy and work in order to transform a bunch of raw materials into a solar panel and then install it, so you count the cost of those inputs. While the solar panel is fuelled by the sun, you don't have to give a shit about the energy costs required to make the sun keep burning - those are entirely irrelevant. In contrast, if you set up a petroleum-based generator, you have to care not just about the costs of building the generator, but the cost of supplying it with fuel as well, because that fuel does not shine down out of the sky for free.
I just don't understand why this is so difficult to grasp or understand and at this point I'm giving up - this is my last post in this thread because this is just not productive. My line that you consider strained and implausible has been used by scientists for decades in multiple peer-reviewed papers and it is a widely accepted measure among anyone who takes the topic seriously. Your incredulity at this extremely common and well-understood concept just mystifies me.
So, should I care about that, like they tell me... or should I just care about calories? Why/why not?
Depends on what you're trying to do, but yes, you should care about calories - but you should care about nutrition as well. Having concerns about one thing shouldn't prevent you from having concerns about something related.
Where was the spike of 'old' pollutants?! Why did we have to completely abandon the old predictions?
Look out the window - especially if you're near a coral reef. Were you aware that there are microplastics in your balls? In your brain? The biosphere is in crisis and there's vast quantities of trash and pollution that are degrading the environment and quality of life both. We didn't have to abandon those old predictions at all - but atmospheric carbon levels are a better proxy for that kind of activity than directly measuring all the regular pollution. You don't have to abandon that old prediction at all and you can keep studying it or verifying it if you want to - it's just that atmospheric carbon is a better measure, so we use that instead. If you want to go out and discover an actual method for accurately measuring harmful pollution, please do - it'd be a tremendous service to humanity.
How can we tell the difference? What sort of test could falsify your theory?
You wait a bit and watch the trend-line on the graph. Alternatively, you find some explanation for those temporary shifts up and down - as an example, volcanic eruptions can have a significant impact on temperature levels across the globe, so if you can say "we're experiencing lower temperatures because this volcano erupted and filled the atmosphere with vog" that lets you work it out as well.
Why do I care about "renewing itself"? I thought we were talking about how consumption rates come into play for timescales relevant to humans. How does that work?
If you have a bank account with 5000 dollars in it and which will only be refreshed with another 5000 dollars in 10 years, there is a big difference between having a yearly expenditure of 1000 dollars as opposed to a yearly expenditure of 400 dollars.
Amadan
You are capable of doing better, more often, and I wish you would.
21m ago
Low-effort comments lead to low-effort responses. Knock it off, all of you.
Amadan
You are capable of doing better, more often, and I wish you would.
22m ago
Okay, @stuckinbathroom's "Source?" is obnoxious, but so is this.
jeroboam
55m ago
True enough. But 1 billion is a tiny amount of the available hot money, which is in the trillions. There's already been a couple billion gambled on this market.
Among high net worth people, there is a huge demand for investments which are both positive alpha and uncorrelated from the stock market. They are rare and precious. Hell, if Trump was at 85% right now, I'd throw in 50k myself.
anon_
57m ago
If both parents have the same recessive condition, yeah. It's a big thing that genetic counselors will counsel for.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
1hr ago
Which is kind of the point. If the point was just to see who might win, why publish the results? If the polls say Trump wins, then it’s useful perhaps in business where you might want to long term plan for the future economic policies Trump brings. Or it might be useful to the various campaigns as a signal of where the weak points are. I suspect that they aren’t getting the polls generally available to the public, which are not about reporting the likely winners, but in motivating or demotivating various factions in the electorate. CNN isn’t trying to guess the outcome. They want to scare democrats into voting and working harder for Kamala and saying she might lose is motivation for people who are afraid of a Trump second term. If they’re wrong, it’s not like they get a black eye even.
I think what makes more sense is to try to gage enthusiasm and whether or not some factions of the base are not on board. Kamala has a big problem because of Israel Palestine. There’s a fairly large portion of the left that’s jumping to either staying home or voting Green Party. If they’re serious, I think that’s a problem no matter what the polls say. I don’t see the same divide with any issues for Trump. I see lots of people saying they can’t wait to vote for Trump. Both things seem important as data points.
Nachtfalter
1hr ago
Regarding the distinction you make between improving deliberate information recall and improving spontaneous/sublime association: John Crowley's fantasy novel Little, Big has a character who uses a memory palace (aka. the method of loci) not just to commit facts to memory, but also to do detective work in the sense of joining the dots together. The palace is a place for reflection and discovery. At one point her attention is drawn to a room of the palace by a cowbell ringing in it, so the palace formalizes and increases awareness of the process of recognizing the relevance of a memory. Another character uses his palace (by physically walking around the real analogue of the imagined place) to perfectly preserve emotionally significant experiential memories.
This is a fictional portrayal which verges on astral projection sometimes. I have no idea to what extent it's grounded in reality, or even to what extent the author thought it was, and I haven't tried to emulate it. I've read somewhere that the method of loci was developed by ancient rhetors to memorize speeches, which sounds more like what you were complaining about.
I agree with lagrangian that rote memorization doesn't preclude forming associations. Organizing information in preparation for rote memorization can require decisions about what associations to make: if you want to memorize the periodic table, do you memorize periods or groups at a time, or mappings between atomic numbers and elements, or mappings from a given element to its immediate neighbours? In making this decision you are effectively selecting triggers of relevance and the information that should float into your mind in response to them.
ulyssessword
1hr ago
I found a much clearer example this morning: California officials cite Elon Musk’s politics in rejecting SpaceX launches (via here):
The California Coastal Commission on Thursday rejected the Air Force’s plan to give SpaceX permission to launch up to 50 rockets a year from Vandenberg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara County.
“Elon Musk is hopping about the country, spewing and tweeting political falsehoods and attacking FEMA while claiming his desire to help the hurricane victims with free Starlink access to the internet,” Commissioner Gretchen Newsom said at the meeting in San Diego.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
1hr ago
I don't think they'd help much for children in a war zone. Even most areas of Chicago aren't located near active war zones where stray rifle bullets might come from.
Glassnoser
1hr ago
Actually a relative of mine married a Cornell Economics PhD and moved back with him to South Africa where he rose to be deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank and supposedly only wasn't appointed governor because of his wife's opposition to apartheid.
Turbulent_Singularity
1hr ago
This is true even in Canada. I was incredibly shocked when I found out that, under Canadian law, evidence could be obtained by the police in a way that is illegal and violates your rights, but it could still be allowed in as evidence during trial if it didn't "bring the administration of justice into disrepute". Illegally obtained evidence isn't automatically excluded like in the US
ccc
1hr ago
There's still risk discounting to account for. Even if the true odds are, say, 50-50: to counteract 25m of dumb money, the sharp traders need a bankroll in the order of billions of dollars to avoid kelly ruin, i.e. approximately the total volume on that market right now.
Bartender_Venator
1hr ago
All the guys I hung out with morphed into generic stereotypes in many ways, happy but just very bland.
That's what people generally use Instagram for, to project an image of bland, legible, public happiness. Who knows what they're like behind the veil.
urquan
1hr ago
“And why beholdest thou the motte that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the bailey that is in thine own eye?” — Jesus (or something like that)
Does anyone else feel weirded out by their past?
Yes, absolutely. I spend more time than is healthy thinking, "what if..."
All the guys I hung out with morphed into generic stereotypes in many ways, happy but just very bland. All the girls I wanted to talk to at the time just to feel good about myself dont seem that attractive anymore.
My first thought reading this is that almost everybody looks like a generic stereotype when looked at from a distance. For the girls, maybe it was status that made you attracted. So, once you left that particular status hierarchy, the attraction left as well. (I am way less confident in the status idea than the stereotype idea)
Turbulent_Singularity
1hr ago
(Reposting in the latest Wellness Wednesday following a suggestion)
I am seeking advice on how to fix a chronic, persistent, extreme lack of discipline.
I am currently 25, live with my mother, I have failed out of college (again) and I currently work part time at a grocery store for minimum wage within walking distance (I still don't have my driver's license). The reason I failed out of college both times was that I just didn't show up to class. When I did show up, I passed the exams with no real problem and I managed to pass a few classes with that. I have yet to tell my mother I failed the second time. I went to a 4 year college, failed out of that, then went to a 2 year community college. The only reason I managed to get a degree was that it was during COVID years, so the standards were super lax. I'm pretty sure I missed a few final exams, didn't hand in almost any assignments and yet somehow I still passed. After passing, I went back to the 4 year school and went back to failing.
I only have the job because, after I finished the 2 year degree, I didn't sign up for classes for the 4 year college in time, so I was doing nothing for months. My mother kept telling me to get a job since I wasn't in school and was threatening to kick me out if I didn't. She gave me multiple deadlines that I blew past with no consequence, but I could tell she was getting increasingly fed up. I ended up getting a job and I'm pretty sure if I waited a month or two longer, I would've been kicked out.
After the second time I failed, I decided to go to a therapist. She told me to see a psychiatrist for ADHD. He eventually said I have ADHD, and even though I am still quite skeptical of the diagnosis (for reasons I can go into if needed someone asked, so I answered here), I have been taking the Methylphenidate ER that I've been prescribed. I am only doing this because my mother has great insurance so all the therapists, doctors and medication is all paid for fully by insurance, but that will only last until I am 26 (close to a year from now). She also doesn't know I am going to a therapist, doctor or that I am taking any medicine.
With regards to my job, for reasons that I still do not know, I am able to go to my job without missing a day. I am almost always a few minutes late (anywhere from 0 to 10 minutes), but given the super low standards of a minimum wage job, I never get reprimanded in any way for it. But, I still always show up, unlike my school classes. This confusion is part of what prompted me to go to therapy. I have repeatedly tried to figure out why I am late and to fix it, but nothing really worked.
So, the question is: what do I do? Here is me listing all the options I can think of
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Continue going to therapy and seeing the psychiatrist. Both haven't been helpful so far (I've seen two therapists so far. the first abruptly told me she was leaving that practice. Both have been similarly effective), but maybe they just need more time. Hopefully, I will learn why I didn't go to class and fix that, then I will go back to school, finish my degree and get a job like "normal". My worry: it's been 3 months of this so far and I can't see any progress, so I am not too optimistic. Plus, I'm not sure I can hide me failing from my mother much longer and if she does find out, I'm pretty sure I will be kicked out. Maybe I need a new therapist? If it's not part of insurance, as all the good therapists seem to be, I don't think I'd be able to afford it with my minimum wage job. And, even though every therapist that doesn't take insurance says they offer it cheaper for people that find it hard to pay, I'm not sure I'd qualify since, even though I make little money, my mother makes decent money.
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Give up on college, give up on therapy, the psychiatry, the adhd medication and try to find a job with the 2 year degree I have. Hope that what happened with me not going to college doesn't happen at my new job. My worry: doing this without understanding why I failed in college seems very risky. I'm also not sure I can find a good enough job to move out with just a 2 year degree.
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Tell my mother. Hope she gives me another chance. But then what? What is my plan then? No idea. Plus, I am unsure I would even get another chance (or if I deserve one). I mean, would you give me one? I don't think I would.
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Continue working my dead end job. Eventually, my mother will figure out I failed, maybe she'll give me another chance, maybe not, eventually I get kicked out. (doom scenario)
Am I missing any options? What should I do? How do I fix this extreme lack of discipline? How do I fix this extreme laziness? Have you, or anyone you know, fixed this extreme lack of discipline? How?
If it matters, for context I live in the New York metropolitan area. Also, "kicked out" in this context doesn't mean me being homeless. I'm not 100% sure, but it probably means me either living with my dad, or my brother. However, if I don't solve my issues, they would probably kick me out eventually as well, and after that, who knows.
Turbulent_Singularity
1hr ago
My experience is that procrastination and self-sabotage comes from perfectionism and self doubt
I initially thought that this 100% didn't apply to me since I didn't do simple assignments as well the long form ones, but now I am thinking of a few examples of me avoiding things cause I can't do it perfectly, so I need to reflect on this more. In particular, I'm thinking of times at work when I avoid doing things because I don't know exactly how some minor thing should be done, e.g. "should the sticker be like this, or rotated 90 degrees? Should I ask the manager? No, that's a super dumb question over a minor thing. I'll just do something else" That also made me think of times I avoid doing household chores because I don't know how exactly my mother wants it to be done. (I am the prototypical "weaponized incompetence" trope that women on social media complain about)
Were you so afraid that if you tried and failed, it would be a blow to your self-concept, and so you stopped yourself from trying and guaranteed a failure that you could say wasn’t because you were too dumb?
It's very hard for me to try to remember my emotions. My therapist keeps trying to get me to remember what it feels like when I didn't go to class and I find it very hard. This seems plausible, so I will try to think about it more.
Maybe you struggle less in your minimum wage job because you consider it below you, easy, and therefore unthreatening? You can imagine yourself being some kind of starving artist, an undervalued renegade, maybe?
This definitely resonated with me. This instantly made me think of all the times I had an ego and thought my coworkers were dumb. I need to think about this more.
My first therapist was very nice, but, other than telling me to go to a psychiatrist, I can't really say she was helpful. I've only seen the new one a few times so far, but she's been more thought provoking than the last one even if I can still tell that she is fresh out of school like the last one.
Have you looked into what blocks you from doing things, what benefits procrastination provides you in the moment, like emotional relief, even if it destroys your long term goals? Or do you not even get to the point where you know you have an assignment due Sunday night and it’s Sunday at 3pm and you decide not to try?
Emotional relief sounds accurate because I usually play games or watch youtube and avoid thinking about the assignment or other thing I have to do. I am usually aware of the assignment well before it is due, so I definitely know when it's due and don't forget.
The associate's is in accounting, and ideally, I would've stayed in school to get all the credits to become a CPA, but then my plan shifted to just finishing the degree, finding work, then doing the CPA college credits later on. Then, I failed enough accounting classes that the repeat policy meant I couldn't continue an accounting degree, so I switched to another business degree. But then I failed enough classes that I can't even finish any business degrees at that college anymore. So, if I do go back to school, I'd need to go to a different college since my accounting bachelor's is what I am closest to finishing.
TheFooder
2hr ago
would cost you $1.06 right now.
My point is this wasn't the case a few days ago. I could have bought Harris at $0.48 and sold Trump at $0.56 (aka buy 'No' at $0.44). Selling at market today would have been profit.
As for pump and dump, I think these markets are so thin that $850 would look like a pump and there's no reason to think, if it was a pump, that there was only a single individual involved. Volume doubled for a three day stretch, so something was happening and it was unlikely a single person.
I'm not confident in anyone winning anything...again, my point. I think the actual price per contract should be $0.50.
I'm also not trying to make 'real money' on prediction markets. I don't really understand who would do that...but w/e. What I'm interested in is how that market functions and how closely my predictions skew toward reality. Though, with your suggestion, I may take a closer look at Polymarket.
ThenElection
2hr ago
There is no new information. We have no reason to think his model is even particularly good. The only thing that it really brings to the table is that he both has a consistent reasonable process that doesn't give much room for human bias to creep in, and that he doesn't abandon it the second it makes partisans mad. This is, apparently, a really hard thing to do.
Or, a bit more optimistically: it actually does provide information that can be new to people. E.g., post-debate the model showed that Biden was going to get walloped because voters just weren't willing to re-elect someone senile, while many Democrats were doing their best to convince themselves otherwise. It's somewhat fair to say, "oh, so all the model does is tell you things that are blindingly obvious?" Yes, with a significant caveat: seeing what's in front of your eyes is a very difficult thing in politics.
TheFooder
2hr ago
Couldn't we also find this stuff on the moon? Why not the moon? I would presume every crater has something interesting at its center. It just seems like the most obvious place to start but I rarely see it mentioned or discussed.
I'm not super up-to-date on all the latest space exploration talk, so maybe someone can give me the tl;dr.
Turbulent_Singularity
2hr ago
I have plenty of reasons for against my ADHD diagnosis, so I think it's easier if I list it in a roughly chronological order
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I only really considered that I might have ADHD after a streamer said they had it, got medicated and then was way more productive and focused. They described it in a way that felt like it could apply to me. Points for: this made me seriously consider ADHD Points against: am I just being influenced into thinking I have ADHD like all those patients that news articles and doctors on the psychiatry subreddit complain about? Am I just another one of those self-diagnosed tiktok people?
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I did a lot of research on ADHD prior to going to a therapist Points for: A lot of the questionnaires I did said I had ADHD (I looked for official, actually used questionnaires, not shoddy websites) Points against: not every questionnaire said I had ADHD and when it did say I had it, more often than not I was barely within the ADHD range. Also, am I just Barnum effecting myself with these questionnaires?
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I went to a therapist and she recommended I see a psychiatrist to test for ADHD Points for: a neutral unbiased person said I might have ADHD. Big point for. Points against: she was clearly just reading a questionnaire that was very similar to ones I had done myself while researching it. She was also young and seemingly fresh out of school. So, did I unintentionally coach myself by researching ADHD beforehand?
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The psychiatrist eventually diagnosed me with ADHD Points for: a real, professional psychiatrist diagnosed me with ADHD. Very big point for. Points against: the psychiatrist initially said I probably didn't have ADHD. Then, I did a TOVA test, slightly landed in the ADHD range of the test, and now he thinks I have ADHD and tried to instantly prescribe me medication (I declined and wanted to think about it first. I eventually agreed). When I later researched computer ADHD tests, they did not seem very reliable compared to taking a patient history, which this doctor didn't do. The psychiatrist also tried to get me to do a genetic test to see which medication "matched" my genes, but when I researched that, the evidence for it being effective seemed weak. So, I have a slight hunch that he is just trying to get more money from me.
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I started Methylphenidate ER Points for: I feel slightly more focused and haven't really felt "wired" Points against: even after two dosage increases (I'm on 36mg right now. The other day, I took 45mg using leftover, lower dosed, pills from before my dosage increased. It felt the same as 36mg), it is not really that big of an effect. It feels like being on caffeine all day. From research, I know that you shouldn't use a negative/low reaction to stimulants as a way to rule out an ADHD diagnosis, but surely it is relevant in a Bayesian sense, right?
Another thing is that I don't fit the stereotypical ADHD person. When I showed up, I was always able to focus in class, in boring meetings, etc. I was a "quiet" kid. I was always able to sit still in class and such and never really caused problems. Someone who can sit still and focus in class (if I couldn't, I wouldn't have been able to pass any classes given I basically never did homework or other assignments. My test grades saved me) does not really fit the ADHD image
jeroboam
2hr ago
Seems possible, but also really stupid unless you think higher odds on Polymarket actually changes the real odds more than trivially.
If the market becomes obviously wrong (like Trump at 85%) then it will attract essentially unlimited money on the other side of the bet that will make it impossible for a single whale to fight.
They say that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But that's actually NOT TRUE about prediction markets because they have a concrete end date.
Sounds like you don't have a clear goal or reason for getting a degree other than that it's vaguely something you feel expected to do.
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