domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
just now
I am claiming you are impassioned because you misread my post with extraordinary confidence, and then proceeded to act like I was lying for informing you that you misread my post. Not because you have a point of view. This is despite my original assertion having abundant and frankly unnecessary qualifiers due to the sensitivity of our pro-Israel contingent.
corrosive to reasonable discourse
This is ironic, no? I didn’t mind your faux pas but now you’re claiming some sort of moral high ground. After woefully misreading my post you wrote
slippery goalpost-moving
Again, stop being slippery. Do we need to go through this word by word?
Debunking you point by point and line by line, while tedious,
are now pretending that that's what was in dispute.
Again, moving goal posts.
[random accusation that I use alts]
There’s definitely some corrosion and disingenuous posting, I agree with you there.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
5m ago
I’ll be honest, I found his speech at that dinner very grating. Yes, his speechwriters supplied him with a couple of mildly funny lines. The lead-up to those lines was 15-20 minutes of rambling, political self-promotion (I’m aware that politicians routinely attend these functions as part of campaigning, but the talented ones are able to be far more subtle about it than Trump was) and mean-spirited, unfunny jabs at Kamala Harris, Bill DeBlasio, and Chuck Schumer. Now, look, I hate all three of those people. I’ve said far meaner things about all three of them than what Trump said. However, that’s totally against the spirit of an event like this.
I’m not sure that Trump really grasps the purpose of a “roast”. It’s supposed to be compliments disguised as insults. Celebration disguised as denunciation. Love disguised as hate. And the disguise is supposed to be thin enough that anyone with a modicum of subtlety and tact can easily discern what’s really going on. Whereas Trump genuinely loathes the people he’s talking about (and to) so there is no warmth.
And perhaps that’s inevitable, when you invite powerful and controversial individuals (like Chuck Schumer, or Bill DeBlasio, or Donald Trump) to such an event. Maybe the “roast” style is just fundamentally unsuited to accommodate differences of opinion and interests this divergent. Certainly I’m not gonna weep for Chuck Schumer’s hurt feelings, or Kamala Harris’ tarnished dignity. As someone with a lot of genuine love for roasts as a comedic/social art form (and someone who has participated in a few of them myself) the whole thing came of as very unseemly and inappropriate to me.
SlowBoy
13m ago
I'm honestly not sure how to feel about a guy who made his money largely thanks to government regulations and contracts getting heavily involved in politics.
All government contractors are run like this. This is the entirety of the economy of Washington DC, which is surrounded by 8 of the 20 wealthiest counties in the country. The entire industry is an elaborate defense mechanism against government and contractors sucking their own dicks being seen as corrupt. Occasionally, incidentally, some technical work gets done.
SlowBoy
16m ago
It's possible that the criteria are jiggered to be greater than actually required
It happens quite often in government contracting that the contracts are designed for a particular bidder. Starlink might have the cheapest rural broadband, but are their curtains the right shade of purple? Then the primary contractor who wins sublets the work out to whoever really had the best bid.
One company I worked for told me that my job would be very safe with them, because the owner was Puerto Rican and so we always "got primary" for being minority-owned. Another company I worked for was very happy when they got rejected for a contract but told their bid was the best -- great progress!
All I can see is what I see. When I watch events like the Al Smith dinner I see a person far more present and capable than Harris, who appears absolutely haggard to me in her rare unscripted appearances.
Let’s not forget that age 60 is not exactly a spring chicken either.
I do agree that the odds of Trump falling off a cliff in the next 4 years are non-zero. You can't cheat father time. But, no, it hasn't happened yet.
Amadan
You are capable of doing better, more often, and I wish you would.
32m ago
Contra the people who say he is senile (a sure sign of TDS by the way)
I don't think he's senile. I think he's showing signs of decline. Clearly not as bad as Biden, but come on. It's not TDS to recognize the man is old and shows it.
hydroacetylene
40m ago
Ok, tradesman here- you can succeed in a trade if you can’t sit still enough or care about boring useless arbitrary crap enough to do well in school. You cannot succeed in a trade if you lack the good discipline and willingness to work to do well in school(you’re on the motte so I’m assuming you’re smart enough).
I leave up to you to determine which category you’re in. By all means, try to get an electrical apprenticeship if you think you’re just ADHD(but do be aware you’re probably A) gonna get drug tested and B) going to have to take a math class, regardless of whether you already know it, to move up). But if you have issues with discipline, call an army recruiter if you can’t fix them.
I'm unsure if the physical health problems are worth it
Tradesmen with severe physical health problems tend to be alcoholics who smoke heavily and eat fast food multiple times a day while not sleeping very much. As a rule, if you don’t have preexisting physical health problems and make it through your first year or two(almost all tradesmen have to start on a construction site) then just take care of your body and the work won’t be too tough on it.
mrvanillasky
43m ago
It's got an amazing soundtrack. I uploaded photos of a vanilla sky I saw in chiang mai and the uploaded Instagram photo has the song from sigur ros in the movie that is played at the end.
Cameron Diaz also has a song there lol.
Amadan
You are capable of doing better, more often, and I wish you would.
45m ago
He's 78. He'll be 82 in 2028. He's already showing signs of fatigue and cognitive decline. I wouldn't put it past him to still think he can make a run (I don't think he's capable of admitting he was beaten), but I can't see it being a realistic possibility.
FiveHourMarathon
for angels are nothing but sharks well governed.
46m ago
US Election Bold Predictions Thread
Give me your hot takes about the results of the upcoming US Elections. These should be BOLD, don't just follow the prediction markets or the odds, and probably not about who wins the electoral college since the current best guess is that it's anyone's guess who wins. I should preface all this that on the POTUS front, I'm expecting a narrow Trump win, with a very low confidence in that prediction.
For me:
-- Trump is going to lose North Carolina badly, significantly underperforming his polling numbers. The very best recent results for Mark Robinson have him down by ten points after the Nude Africa, "I'm a black Nazi," "I write erotica about my sister in law pissing on me" scandal. Most of his staff has abandoned him. Reverse coat-tails normally don't work out, but Robinson's complete lack of any campaign infrastructure is a different animal than just being disliked. The Robinson campaign won't be doing any of the GOTV work that you'd expect from a gubernatorial campaign. I expect Robinson to do better, thanks to Trump, than his poll numbers indicate, he's probably not going to lose by 20 points. But I expect Trump to do a couple points worse than his averages, thanks to Robinson.
-- Deadlocked Senate. I don't know how, but I expect the Dems to pull out one upset in a red-leaning seat. They've overperformed in statewide elections since Dobbs, and I just think they'll pull one out somewhere. Trump is harmed less by abortion than virtually every other R candidate, because a lot of people who like him just don't believe he's pro-life. R senate candidates are getting crushed on the issue. R candidates for competitive seats like McCormick are trying to swing back towards pro-life, but it's not going to work, it's just going to make them look weak and unreliable.
jeroboam
48m ago
If Trump doesn't win he will go to jail (80% certainty). I think this might constrain his ability to run.
But I think he might run anyway. Contra the people who say he is senile (a sure sign of TDS by the way) he is still very energetic and funny as hell. Last night's speech at the Al Smith dinner was a banger. The guy had a crowd of New York democrats roaring in laughter.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XI0MUoW28VE
I could write some of the jokes out but they wouldn't do it justice. It requires a feel for the crowd and comedic timing that only a really talented performer can deliver.
jeroboam
51m ago
Yeah, it pushes things forward very, very slightly.
Note that Orchid has already been offering genetic testing for other things for awhile now, and it has a very small number of users. (But among them, Elon Musk!)
But Gattaca this ain't. The number of IVF babies is ridiculously low. Only about 2.5% of babies in the US are conceived via IVF, almost all of whom are born to older mothers. If you want to have a high IQ baby, then conceiving naturally at 25 will give you far better odds than using this technology at age 38.
But in any case, let's say 10% of IVF babies use this service and the average IQ bump is 2 points.
This will result in 2.5% * 10% * 2 points = 0.005 points higher IQ among all babies. This doesn't even come close to offsetting the natural dysgenic trends from older mothers and low IQ people having more kids.
Primaprimaprima
Bigfoot is an interdimensional being
55m ago
The ones that really tripped me up were the abstract paintings
Yes, those are a coinflip at this point. Occasionally there are still tells though, like with
HaroldWilson
55m ago
Words have common definitions, which the agency can't just redefine.
When has unemployment not referred primarily those out of work who are seeking jobs?
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
59m ago
But you're assuming that this technology doesn't change the kind, or number of parents that get IVF.
Are there even many anecdotes of people choosing IVF as their first choice method of conception? Maybe there are some worried about serious recessive genetic disorders, although most examples I can think of there seem more focused on pre-screening before marriage. The folks I've known who have done IVF largely tried most other options first, and are out of time to have a TFR that seems likely to cause massive changes in the future. I don't know the specifics, but I hear it's not exactly as fun as the more, er, traditional method, and pretty expensive.
I guess I could see that changing long-term, but it seems like it'd be a hard sell to a couple getting married young-ish and wanting a large family.
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
Because the US is the imperial metropole and what people care about here is what people care about elsewhere.
xablor
1hr ago
Placeholder reply: I have thoughts on this, but I don't want to divert the evolution of the discussion yet.
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
Musk is also in that category, though? Like I don’t think ‘amount of success’ is a massively relevant difference.
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
Rural broadband has been truly massive amounts of pork and government waste throughout the run of the program. The government’s actual goals are mostly not achievable and the things which work are not supported by the government.
TIRM
1hr ago
I'm not advocating for it. But some people would. I'm saying Starlink and satellite internet aren't that and don't need my tax dollars.
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
This will of course be more than compensated for by the TFR declines in groups that adopt it widely. Even if the cost declines it’s still a big, expensive deal compared to not taking some pills because your trailer needs the pitter-patter of little feet, and so I would expect it to if anything be bad for elite human capital over the long run.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
1hr ago
Typographical and English errors in judicial opinions can be somewhat funny to read—or, alternatively, somewhat worrying.
07mk
1hr ago
I actually encountered a friend of mine confusing this a couple of years ago. He had never heard the term before, and when I explained to him the generation it was a label for, he commented how stupid it was to make the label based on a video chat app. I had to inform him that the term came predated 2020 and came from a combination of "Generation Z" and "boomer."
I've seen Trump look sharp and alert, and I've seen him ramble and spew word salad. Maybe, like Biden, he has good days and bad days.
Harris, after watching her Fox interview, I think really is just dumb as a post. And yes, it's ridiculous that she's the "young" candidate.
But I remain of the opinion that Trump at 82 will not be in any shape to run for president, let alone to perform.
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