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domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com

Yea this is a delusion the dems have been trying to sell themselves ever since Trump. They see themselves not as a specific group fighting for it's members interests, like the republicans do, but more like a religion like messianic figures that will bring about utopia if they can just get enough control and "eliminate" the external things dividing us. Reality is that Trump didn't start anything and the divisions had been brewing for a while. The things dividing us are us. Globalism has clear winners and losers, 20k Haitians get dumped on a rural town of 40k, but two bus loads would overwhelm Martha's Vineyard, etc.

Due to this they need a rationalization for why their universalist solutions aren't working or their self conception would break down. Similar to that Muslim meme people always post in regards to Europe where the bureaucrats are desperately asking what the Muslim wants, more healthcare, better housing and the Muslim says they just want Shariah. It's clear what the man in the meme wants, the increasingly desperate questions aren't for his sake. It's funny they made diversity one of the pillars of their ideology when they don't really believe it exists in the first place.

Chuck Todd routinely degraded American politics. Why should I listen to a thing he says unless it starts with “I am a huge part of the problem—I’m sorry.”

What worries me is that the explosive compound might not exist at all. Maybe this is something that all lithium-ion batteries can do with the right command.

Potentially.

But an IUD doesn't deal with the social, interpersonal, emotional consequences of sex. One of the big lies of the sexual revolution is that you can divorce sex from emotion. I don't think that's true between healthy and reasonable adults. I think the only way to do that is to dehumanize one or both of the participants. This is what happens with prostitution. Outside of that, both men and women who are really into casual sex often fall into deep existential crises. This is the end to The Game by Neil Strauss, I think it's a subplot of Magic Mike (I've never seen it, but I remember this popping up in conversation when that movie came out).

I would worry that IUDs would function as (literal) talismans in the minds of some women and men. "You have an IUD? Great, sex has no consequences!" Not true on a physical level (STIs/STDs) and not true on the mental/emotional/social level.

Again, I'm not recommending puritanical sexual codes for society at large. I'm advocating for the hard re-linking of consequences with sex. You can have lots of sex with many partners if you want, but be aware of and accept the consequences. If you don't like the sound of those consequences, abstinence is a good option, and shouldn't be pilloried as some sort of "internalized sexual repression."

At the risk of being basic, here's a simple example. Let's say I own a restaurant making chicken sandwiches. I have skin in the game. If I serve bad sandwiches at high prices, I will lose money and then go out of business.

On the other hand, consider the DMV. No one gets promoted or fired based on performance of the DMV. People are required to use their services, and they can't go out of business. No one has any skin in the game.

Chicken sandwich restaurants are generally good. DMV's are generally bad.

On the order of $100 billion we could do it. So somewhere between the Tesla and Switzerland options.

In this case Trump talked about firing workers who strike. Which is a pretty big issue for a union. And the union leader was very vocally unhappy about that. Without that he probably gets the endorsement, given the Union leader spoke at the RNC and the majority of members liking Trump.

I am going to ask The Horrible Question. How do you know that the device you're reading this text on, right now, hasn't had a similar sabotage from China or [insert boogieman here?]

Alright, I accept this response as a justification for OLD.

I didn't know it was this bad for zoomers. While I believe I've dated a technical zoomer, she was in a social circle that was very millennial (moment of self-reflection: perhaps that was why we got along).

If this is the case, OLD is rough sledding. There's are a bunch of articles that show how messed up the "market" for dating is (your "smothered" comments points at this).

I always wonder which people are really that historically ignorant. Noise, signal, so hard to tell. So little worth listening to at all?

This stuff kicked off at least as early as 2012, and it was more "nerd wars" and professor/student social media drama than politics to start with. (Tumblr isn't "big tech" either, though prior Twitter certainly made things even worse...) Trump is obviously a symptom of a problem that won't go away when he does.

I made a few jokes about how she will be sucking me off too at which point she stopped and told me that this is not happening. I left and later told her to fuck herself when I saw her again.

This is... not how to talk to women. Not ever. Not women that tease you, not women that frustrate you, not anyone. You'll give every woman the ick.

It has been fairly devastating. I grew up camping around Australia's top end, across the Litchfield tabletop plateau and Kakadu escarpment and floodplains. True frontier country. Before the cane toads made their way up from Queensland, we often saw quolls poking around the firelight edge. When the cane toads first arrived, they were scarily thick on the ground, you couldn't go for a piss in the night without seeing four of them (and this is in remote, wild areas -- not constrained to places with human activity). You see fewer cane toads now, since the monitors, kites and wedgies learned to flip them over and eat them safely, but I never saw a quoll again.

I am finally out of the limbo and will start pushing updates.

I met a girl who I actually like. I did not end up fucking her and she is in the south of thailand till the 24th before she flies out so I may fly to meet her if I think she is into me.

I made an infamous post back in 2021 where I fucked up by not meeting a girl I liked then, I do not wanna do that now.

I loved the drugs. I should have tried a higher dose of both acid and shrooms and also done ketamine. Just lacked the money. I see this as one off experiences and not a lifestyle thing anyway.

I think that tackling climate change is hard because it is a massively collective action problem.

The payoff matrix of anyone likely to drown when the ocean level rises basically does not depend on how much CO2 she emits, only how much CO2 the rest of the world emits. Thus, even she does not have skin in the game in the sense that she will personally benefit from any choices she makes regarding limiting her CO2 emissions. She will drown or not depending on the actions the rest of the world take, but her own consumption choices only influence how much she has to pay for her car.

I think that for some topics, it is very hard to find a person who has something riding on the outcome which is proportional to what society has riding on the outcome. Climate change is one such topic. Geostrategic matters are another, perhaps. You have a bunch of military leaders who recommend this or that action, buy an aircraft carrier, invade Russia in the winter, get out of Afghanistan, whatever. Their pensions do not depend on how well their country does with their advice. In fact, their personal interests may lie diametrically opposed to that of their country sometimes: large scale conflict is generally bad for the general population and has bad outcomes for at least half of the countries who engage in it, but for general it can be their chance to shine. Of course, the incentive of a grunt who does not want to die in some ditch is also sometimes misaligned to the incentives of a country.

We could mitigate 90% of the negative effects of climate change in the next decade

"Could" can mean a lot of different things.

For example, we could likely put a 100 people on Mars within a decade (if we made that the global focus of our economy to the detriment of every other goal).

Or NATO could invade and occupy Switzerland (i.e. it is technically possible but nobody has any incentive to do it).

Or we could build a Tesla with six instead of four wheels (if we pay Musk a few billions, he will likely design a prototype for us).

Or I could pass you the salt over the table (i.e. just ask and I will do it, no trouble for me).

Where on this spectrum do you think 'mitigate 90% of the negative effects of climate change' falls?

I don't follow the question really as I don’t see bureaucracy or democracy as the same type of thing as capitalism.

All I’m saying is whatever its virtues I don’t see how capitalism somehow leads to more decision makers having skin in the game. Would you be willing to flesh out an argument?

Wikipedia has a qrd:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truffle#:~:text=Volatile%20constituents-,Cultivation,-edit

Tl;Dr: WWI devastated the know how that provided huge cultivated truffle harvests. There have been recent successes in cultivation, but we are not back at the pre-WWI peak.

What is your evidence of the general rule?

To make sure I understand, you’re saying “in general, capitalism leads to decisions made by people with skin in the game,” right? Would you be willing to flesh out an argument a little more? I just don’t see why that’s true.

Right, his tweet was that his choice to support was Trump in 2016 not that he voted for him.

Complicating this is that it isn't just the potato blight which got from the New World to Europe via human action, it was the potato itself.

Well, I'm a Christian, which I was quite open about. But I'd rather this discussion not be some kind of referendum on the existence of God. My point is just that - regardless of where you are on the God question - sexual behaviour can and should be limited in certain circumstances, and the idea of going without sex, whether temporarily or over the long term, is not so ridiculous as to be dismissed out of hand.

Voodoo and cannibalism are real things practiced in Haiti. That's not blood libel, that's anthropology. It happens in Africa too.

It's not really that much of a twist to me that no college education men continue to break for Trump even in the context of a union.

As for the town halls, I don't know how much to credit them. Town halls and "popular assemblies" are easy to pack and direct, and I assume union leadership would have directed them towards Biden.

There was a user here, SkookumTree, who used to post quite frequently about how his prospects with women were so bad that the only woman who would have him was a literal meth addict, or a 500 pound woman. At some point, he got it in his head that what would increase his chances with women was to have risked his life in some way, as apparently women can tell and are attracted to a man who has risked his life. So he kept talking about how he was going to go on a solo trek through the Alaskan wilderness, called the Hock. He was firmly convinced that if he just did this One Weird Trick (TM), he would finally be able to score dates or whatever.

Ultimately he got banned because he kept posting about it so much. I'm talking at least once a week in the Wellness Wednesday thread, and frequently more often than that. It got really obnoxious, especially because he kept arguing against people trying to give him advice on how to improve his game (and it probably goes without saying but it was all better advice than his plan). Basically he got banned until he went on the Hock, with the hope that he would finally stop beating that dead horse. But he hasn't been back around since he got banned, even though he has since been unbanned.

Аs an autistic hardcore fan, I definitely agree. Another thing worth noting is that you have to kind of obscure your level of knowledge around people you don't know well. Being a SABR member might embellish my resume among baseball fans, but it's not gonna help me much when I'm talking to a girl at a bar. I suspect we see a lot more hardcore enthusiasts on a daily basis than we realize, but there's a sort of social contract we sign to make casual conversations more bearable.

I have found that I can't stand reading anything written by most fanbases of the things I nerd out over, but I am happy to discuss with those I happen to meet in person. People can really be insufferable assholes online.

This may work both ways, because then there's the Motte. Which makes me wonder how recognizable any of us on the Motte would be to one another in real life, or if we would have anything at all to say to each other. Probably not nearly as much as we type.