OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
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User ID: 359
But Iran's wrecking your stuff. The US isn't mining the strait, Iran is. It turns out Iran thinks you're their enemy too!
If China bombed Pearl Harbor, and in response the US bombed the merchant ships of every nation in the Pacific regardless of where they were going or who they were selling to, you would say, "The US is not our friends here. The US is our enemy now." And act accordingly. You wouldn't blame China for the US's actions, especially if they had a half-decent reason to bomb Pearl Harbor (say we were in a fight over Taiwan or take-your-pick.)
Iran is telling you , "I am your enemy! I will do whatever is in my power to cause you pain!"
Europe's response is, "America, control Iran better!" When the response should be, "Oh geez, these Iran fellas are harming our interests. I should protect our national interests better."
America isn't going to keep the seas safe on its own. Other countries that like having a global ship trade need to step up and protect their interests on the waters.
Everything Konrad publishes sounds like AI. Even things that I'm 100% certain cannot be AI, like this article.
Edit: or this one published before Generative AI: https://gcaptain.com/what-the-sea-has-taught-me-about-covid-19/
Though I would not be surprised in the least if he writes a few paragraphs and asks AI to expand it and make it snappy.
The article itself says, "The strongest version of this thesis is not “Trump is playing 4D chess.” It is that the administration holds more options than anyone realizes, and the insurance mechanism, not the Navy, is the real lever of power."
Yeah, Laura's aunt Eliza tells a story at Christmas:
Eliza was walking to the spring to get a pail of water. Her dog was with her and started growling and pulling on her skirt with his teeth when she got near the path. He tore her skirt and snarled. Frightened, Eliza ran back home and closed the door to her house, leaving the dog outside. All day she and her three young children were stuck inside, unable to leave the house. Every time they tried to open the door, the dog snarled at them. They had no water the whole day and were unable to cook or drink anything. In the afternoon the dog calmed down and acted like nothing happened. They walked to the spring together and in the ground Eliza saw large panther tracks.
The books are great because Laura realized that her life exemplified a lot of people's experiences, but also that the past was vanishing and very few in the future would understand what it was like. She's not the best writer, but her books have stayed in print for a good reason.
I'm homeschooling my 2nd grade daughter this year due to her autism not being accommodated in the classroom in 1st grade.
Naturally a lot of curriculum is "conservative" and describes itself as "classical." One thing I notice is the emphasis on how little people in the past had. The capstone book of the year is "Little House in the Big Woods," which is basically a woman's memoirs of how she had to live as a little girl on a homestead where all the food had to be made, water brought in from far away every day, wild animals to contend with, etc. Before that was "The Courage of Sarah Noble," a story about a little girl who traveled with her father to cook for him while he build a house by hand on new land they bought from Indians.
Lots of the short stories cover living off the land, working hard, making gifts instead of buying them, being content with little.
If I compare myself with my parents I feel impoverished, but compared to my grandparents I'm ahead and compared to my great-grandparents I might as well be royalty.
There is a lot wrong with modernity but I don't have to haul water on a daily basis or make my own soap and that means I'm better off than so many people, both in the past and now.
I have the sense that conservatives are more aware of this than others (both liberals and moderates) though I don't have hard data.
Closing the strait is the one way they can hurt the US.
You understand Americans largely aren't actually hurt by this. Australia is hurt by this. Asia is hurt by this. Europe is hurt by this. America in general benefits because our oil supply mostly isn't impacted and now we have higher profits on what we export.
I wouldn't say it's immoral to pay Iran, go ahead, be our guest. But if it were that simple, why hasn't it happened yet?
All I said is it's more Sanewashed than Elder Gods, which isn't a very high bar. But I'm not saying this was predicted before Iran was bombed, but rather that of the options available to them now, they might be choosing to leave the Strait risky because it has created some responses that the administration thinks are useful at the time.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2034311772354592874.html discusses it a bit.
JD Vance would sign up for embarrassing Europe.
A more sanewashed idea than Elder Gods:
Closing the Strait hurts America's allies more than it hurts Americans. If we look like we're not doing much about it, the allies are incentivized to build up their navies again and protect their own damn shipping lanes. Anything that makes Europe/Australia look at the world through more realistic lenses than some rose-colored End of History glasses is a win for sanity everywhere.
The Fire is actually pretty good if you don't go with Amazon's kid subscription but just hand select apps you want. What is weird is sometimes the tablet would reboot into another kid's account, or even my account (which should have been password protected,) and I didn't find out right away. After they broke down (as these things do after a few years) we didn't buy more.
I think the solution to age-gating would be to have internet-connected devices to have a birth year set on the network card or somewhere that would be hard to reset. When anyone orders a device online or in person, they have to input the birth year of the primary intended user of the device. Then internet sites can query the device for (is user > 14? Is user > 21?) and the device would tell them that and nothing else. It would be possible to change this setting but the average person would need to bring it into a repair shop to do so.
There are also lots of devices that have age gating features. Kindle Fire tablets are what I'm most used to - you can order one that looks like Bluey and it comes with a years subscription to a selection of apps that Amazon thinks are appropriate for a given age range. That said, I have trouble trusting other people's judgement on these sorts of things.
If you want the best paranoid kid entertainment, get a Yoto player and hand select every card.
I joined TheMotte right around the start of Covid. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people did. It was one of the last places where people could talk freely about things that were radically changing their daily life. There was never anything like Covid before and hopefully never will be again.
You still need people to maintain those so that they don't explode.
That is not enough to pay for an active freezer with VRLA UPSs (with batteries being swapped out every five years), generator backups, and annual maintenance checkups from qualified technicinas in perpetuity.
They're being sold a bill of goods that will quickly become not worth it.
My dad was really excited about it 20 years ago. Pretty sure that's where the millions my mom can't track down in the divorce went.
Yeah, the problem to me is more the Upper-Middle class Boomers who will give all their money first to the health care field, then to the cryogenics field, leaving little to their grandkids. But also because trusts are hard unless you have 100 million to make it worth it, all their money will be gone quickly and their corpse will be left rotting.
And then this current comment thread, killing yourself early for cryogenics is also a bad idea.
I think a lot of cryogenics relies on the idea that in a couple hundred years our technology will be so advanced that they will be able to bring people back from the cryogenic state. Therefore, they do not need to prove that we can bring a mouse back right now, with our current technology.
I think it's all crazy to assume we'll keep progressing the way we did in the last century and a half. We're going to go into a population crunch soon. We'll recover from it, but who knows what will happen to the cryogenic-ally frozen in the meantime?
Are you denying that Trump I was basically a Lame Duck president due to being constantly investigated for supposed Russian Election Interference? Because the goalpost is that Democrat complaints of election interference are a random insignificant soundbites, not something that impacted politics one bit.
Is it illegal in the sense that, "You can't get two marriage licenses without a divorce license in the middle?" Or illegal in the sense that, "If you are married and caught with a mistress living in your house you trigger some serious anti-adultery laws?"
Marcial Maciel
Before he was revealed to be an abuser, my response to that name would have been, "Who? Quien?"
Otherwise I largely agree with your post, except I think there is good reason to give primacy to celibate priests. The fact that abuse has gone down dramatically since 1985 while the church has kept celibate priests seems to indicated that changing the practice is not needed to reduce molestation.
The institution has both right wing and left wing positions, like the preferential option for the poor. More than that, in the 1960s and 1970s, a lot of incoming priests were pro choice, pro homosexuals, and pro divorce. There were a lot of progressive activists inside the Church joining the priesthood for this purpose.
It doesn't seem weaselly to me to ask, were the people who were doing the abuse actually conservative or where they progressive activists? And if the answer is actually they were progressive activists, then it seems to be more of what @faceh was saying.
Edit: see figure 12 here: https://catholicproject.catholic.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/NSCPWave2FINAL.pdf
How many priests are Right Wing Icons? ( I can only think of Fulton Sheen, who has not been credibly accused of abuse despite being a bishop and a TV Star)
And how many of abusive priests in the Catholic Church were left wing vs right wing? From the demographics we have now, priests ordained between 1960 to 1980 are more likely to be Left/Progressive, younger priests are more likely to be conservatives. (see figure on page 5). Most abuse cases also peaked between 1960 - 1980 (see page 28).
There is an argument that has been made that the abuse crisis was allowed to proliferate because of an increase in progressive thought - primarily the attitude that sexual abuse was a psychological problem instead of a sin, that sexual urges are higher in the order of goods than they were typically considered in prior Catholic thought, and that after a therapist gave someone the all-clear they were good to return to ministry.
If I understand correctly, the big problem with training doctors is they need to see a certain number of patients (say 10,000 for neatness) before they have seen 90% of the full gamut of what they might experience while practicing on their own.
This takes time and there's a saturation effect. You can make it take shorter time by forcing medical students to work for 80 hours a week, but you can't (or at least shouldn't) make more patients for trainees to see. In a given city, there will only be 100,000 people who need to see a doctor (in that specialty) that year, and so if you have a four year residency, each resident needs to see 2,500 patients a year, and only 40 people can be in residency a year in that city.
The confusing thing is how it ever worked. Was there a huge pathway from "war medic to ER doc" that we're missing now?
Am I pro-Israel? Wasn't Israel on the side of Iran during the Iraq-Iran war?
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I'm confused at the selection. Personally I find Vonnegut easy reads, and though I don't agree with him in the slightest about almost anything, I appreciate the propositions his novels create and the challenge they pose to my worldview.
Meanwhile Infinite Jest is... you have to have a motivation to read it because the book doesn't create the motivation to read the next page by itself. At least that's my experience. I like shorter essays by the author but Infinite Jest itself is a thing in itself. Like House of Leaves. What are you reading it for? To be one of those who read it.
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