OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
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User ID: 359
Didn't he go to the Ukraine and say there wasn't a war?
No, I'm not familiar with this guy. I don't know why you're negatively comparing James O'Keefe, who actually bothers to do stings that would prove something.
O'Keefe's thing:
Disguised guy: "Hey, will you do crazy illegal thing with me?"
Mark: "Sure!"
Disguised guy: "Sooo, do you ever do crazy illegal thing with anyone else?"
Mark; "Yeah, all the time! No one ever catches us, don't worry!"
Admittedly, after getting kicked out of Project Veritas there's a lot more hearsay instead of actual stings. But the original Project Veritas stuff was good quality.
This man on the street thing doesn't prove anything. It relies on priming you ahead of time to expect that anything short of seeing a kid on camera outside this facility in this 2 minutes he's there is evidence that no kids are there at all. When really that's a crazy leap in logic.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I hoped we'd all care about not looking like fools, but apparently that's concern trolling or something.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
Someone posts a video of a Marian Apparition. It could also be a weather balloon. Even if you believe the Marian Apparition is taking place, you might still be frustrated that the weather balloon video is what's blowing up and not the miraculous healing of an amputated limb documented by 12 medical personnel.
It's like the Right is deliberately strawmanning itself. I don't have to like it.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I don't believe that showing kids being dropped off debunks but it has equal weight as the Shirley video. That's the whole point.
I will say that I was surprised that the kids being dropped off knew where they were going. They weren't dragged in by their mothers. They walked calmly to the door as if they've done it before. First day drop off of all the daycare/preschools Ive seen were no where near as calm.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I am surprised that everyone assumes that we would be able to hear kids from outside a preschool/daycare. I cannot hear the kids in my sons' daycare when they are inside the building. We have insulated buildings here on account of the cold winters. When they are all lined up in front of the main doors for drop off I can't hear them. When I come early to pick up a kid for a doctor's appointment I can't hear them.
If there's a part of the video where he actually gets inside for a few minutes, then that would be better evidence. But most of the examples are him standing out in front of a door, trying to open the door and then suggestively saying "This door is locked" as if that isn't the most normal thing in the world.
The one time he actually did get his eyes inside for a brief moment he saw a kid. Just one kid, but we don't know why that is. Is that kid being seen in the office and the other kids are in a classroom? We don't know - the camera doesn't follow him so we have little in the way of evidence.
Another time a woman answered the door and held it open for a while, and we heard nothing. Suspicious right! Except she readily admitted there were no kids there at the time, because all the kids were expected at 2 PM. It's an after-school care facility! Or maybe they were on a field trip, that can happen. The point is, there are many explanations before jumping straight to fraud.
If you go in with different assumptions, this video is simply evidence of anti-white racism. An ethnic conclave refusing their services to a white dad because they only want to look after Somali kids.
Shirley states, "No footprints in the snow outside" as evidence that there are no kids playing there. Well guess what? My kids aren't allowed to play outside at their preschool either for a while due to the cold. On days when it looks like the temps are above 25 degrees F, we get a text that we can send in snow pants. But if it's below 25 with wind chill, they aren't allowed to send the kids outside.
There are just so many things that make me roll my eyes. It's entirely possible that these places are committing fraud! But people jumping on this video as the one true proof just makes us all look foolish.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I don't know where you get the idea that a daycare center can't sound quiet from the outside? If the kids aren't out in the playground I don't hear them. Our preschool is actually insulated on account of the very cold winters here.
My argument is not, "he's right, but he didn't say it in Good Faith." My argument is the evidence in the video is not sufficient to support his claims. He didn't systematically eliminate other possibilities. It's going to backfire, because it's easy to just show children getting dropped off in these places and Voila! debunked.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
Or which premise do you take issue with?
What exactly do you think I am saying here. I take issue with 0 of the premises. I also hate this video. What is being misunderstood?
My analogy to a Christian street preacher does not fall apart because the whole point is that it's not all that weird to call out arguments you hate that are on your side! I am against fraud and against Somalis that don't assimilate remaining in America. I also hate that the video is what got people interested in the problem. Just like I would be alarmed if a video of a street preacher acting crazy was getting attention as the one true proof of Christ's divinity.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I don't know what stroller parking is, but in this video you can clearly see kids get dropped off at one of the locations: https://x.com/i/status/2005779133947650471
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I live in a low population red-tribe town surrounded by farms and our elementary school and preschool are locked and no unauthorized adults are allowed in. If one tried to force their way in it would be treated seriously.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
It's like being a Christian and suddenly a street preacher video is blowing up online. The preacher's argumentation isn't sound and he's weirdly confrontational towards a handful of people just going about their day (and yeah, those people are sinners, but it's still confrontational.)
Wouldn't it be kind of frustrating for this to be the thing that takes off as proof of Christianity, and not all the actual scholarship? If I were to say I wasn't a fan, but I still was a Christian, would that be having and eating cake?
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
If so, that's good. A lot of the people responding to the video are saying, "I'm going to go out right now and investigate my nearby publicly-subsidzied daycare today!" Which is just dumb.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
Kristin Lavransdatter by Sigrid Undset is a good classic for women. Feminist for it's time, but still aligned with reality in a harsh Nordic way.
I'd love to recommend Walker Percy's Lost in the Cosmos: The Last Self-Help Book but it's a harder sell.
Something by Graham Greene. Brighton Rock perhaps?
Anthony Trollope's The Way We Live Now.
Basically find something older than 50 years that appeals to their interests.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
Yes, massive fraud. No, this video isn't proof of it. This video is just outrage bait.
Was this filmed the day it was released? No, could have been filmed... December 25th? December 24th? It clearly wasn't filmed in the Summer. It's not like this was a culmination of years of investigation.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I've been ignoring this for one huge reason: This video was posted on December 26th. If anyone approached my children's preschool today, they would find 0 children there. Not 0 people, because it's also a Lutheran church and there's always some kind of social happening somewhere. But 0 preschool-aged children. They're all home for winter break.
If a stranger tried to go to my child's preschool during a business day, they would not be let into any classroom. They can call the office or send an email to schedule a walkthough. But if you don't have the phone app for parents or an appointment, you're not getting through the double doors.
The fact that it's a 23 year old doing this "investigative journalism" makes my eyes roll so hard. He has no idea what "normal" would look like in the first place. I'm very tired of this genre of "Watch me make unreasonable demands of people and watch as they're weirdly defensive for no reason."
I'll admit the misspelled "learing center" was a nice touch . I'm not going to make the positive claim that these institutions are all above board and the victim of selective editing. There's enough journalism indicating that this kind of fraud is rampant. I'm just perpetually annoyed that this is what makes people pay attention and become outraged, when this sort of thing has been reported on for a while now across America:
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
3d ago
Hardcore History is fun and good production value.
I like Jimmy Akin's Mysterious World but you have to pick out the episodes that interest you.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
3d ago
You are unfortunately correct directionally, but you underestimate just how bad it can get in other places. We can remain "first" of a metric that craters globally for some time.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
4d ago
Honestly, I think the "We're number 1" mentality is integral to American's self-conception, but it doesn't necessarily need to be on wealth/power. We were happily number 1 in Liberty for a long while without any corresponding wealth, and that high will sustain us long after our global dominance ends.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
9d ago
Except women are also punished for not marrying in this scenario. Which would help a bit with pair bonding early on.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
10d ago
But the end goal isn't lower-priced houses, it's more children. If the only way to afford a single family home became to have 3+ children, more people would have them? Also, I don't think you're taking into account that people would still need to qualify for the mortgage, meaning the total house value can't be so high that the two parents can't afford it. This policy just takes out saving up for it which is onerous given that the mid 20s is the best biological time for babies.
Though my policy combined with something like:
- All houses with 4+ rooms and 0 residents under 18 for 5 consecutive years is subject to a 200% property tax increase.
Would help move the current housing stock around and help to some extent.
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
12d ago
People who drink Starbucks don't really like coffee, they like Starbucks syrups.
It's more like: imagine someone who really likes Tomatoes. They grow different varietals from seeds and buy them from Farmer's markets and they eat them raw and sliced with a homemade light dressing. But they don't like tomato sauce.
I don't think it would be fair to tell such a person: "Actually most tomatoes are eaten in tomato sauce, if you don't like tomato sauce you don't really like tomatoes."
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
12d ago
Pslams are great for the drama, which can really come out with modern translations/settings:
Why do the nations conspire and the peoples plot in vain….
You will rule them with an iron scepter
You will dash them to pieces like Pottery
Therefore you kings be wise, be warned
You rulers of the Earth.
Serve the Lord with fear and rejoice with trembling!
Lord, I am weary with my groaning.
Lord, I drench my couch with tears.
I waste away from grief.
Or they'll devour my soul, like a lion
Tearing me to pieces while my screams ring out in vain!
For the wicked in their pride
Refuse to seek Him
All of their thoughts are,
"There is no God."
And his ways seem to prosper all the time
Your judgements are too high
They're out of his sight!
As if they were bread, they consume
They devour my people
They never call on the Lord
Too busy doing wrong
OracleOutlook
Fiat justitia ruat caelum
12d ago
Actually it looks like, in Hungary, the thing that improved TFR the most was housing subsidies:
https://hungary.representation.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-12/hetfa_fertilitymodels_20190913.pdf
Panel A indicates a significant positive effect of home ownership support in the third year. The parameter estimate indicates that a 1%point increase in home ownership support would lead to a 0.00047 (1.2% compared to baseline birth probability 3.87%, which is equivalent with 1099 additional births per year) increase in birth probability.
Here's a proposal:
Upon the birth of a third child to a married couple, the government gives them a down payment equal to 20% of the median US 4 bedroom single family home. They still have to qualify for a mortgage on their own and the money can only be used for this purpose. This applies even if the family owns a smaller sqft home
Pros:
-
Incentivizes marriage.
-
Incentivizes having kids young.
-
Incentives home building if there are more buyers? But only if obstacles to home building decrease.
Edit: Feel the need to elaborate on that last one since it's contrary to typical market wisdom. But it would be similar to the Government subsidizing college - lots of colleges popped up to support the increased demand. Prices also rose, which brings me to the Cons)
Cons:
- Inflates home prices, but the couple still has to have sufficient income to qualify for the monthly payment so hopefully not by that much.
Do I get to collect and battle politicians? Maybe a Pokemon Go type game for canvassing.
More options
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