naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
None of the major non-US powers required for WW3 (Russia, India, China) have great stakes in any of this. If Russia was losing in Ukraine, I'd be more worried.
The only power that cares is the US but none of its potential adversaries in the region (Lebanon, Iran) have nukes nor are any of remaining nuclear powers willing to use theirs to defend them. So a nothingburger. Sleep tight.
I think we can cross out Russia as able to do world war now. I guess using nukes maybe. But conventionally they are essentially Italy in WW2 at best now. A very minor front participant in conventional war.
Either Ukraine or Something involving China (be it Taiwan, or one of the ongoing territorial disputes with India, Japan, Vietnam, Et Al) both strike me as far more likely to "go global" than anything in the Middle East.
The Ukraine situation contained genuine possibilities of escalation to an European war (which still wouldn't necessarily be WW3) for about a month after it started. After that, most of the WW3 talk (in the West, at least) has not been particularly good-faith from either side - either pro-Ukrainian "This is already a WW3, the West doesn't realize it, why isn't it intervening now?" spiel or Western pro-Russian "Oh no, the nukes might start flying at any moment! The West must avoid this by dropping all support to Ukraine now!" spiel.
Negligible, unless retroactively incorporated into the story of WW3 just because it occurred around the same time.
There aren't any great powers on the side of Hamas, only Iran, and only partially. There are chances it could escalate to a war with Iran, but that would not be a world war.
The reality is: the next world war occurs either because China attacks Taiwan, or Russia invades a NATO country. The latter is... extremely unlikely.
The scenario where I can maybe see Putin being emboldened to do something like that is
Russia keeps gearing up more and more into a total war footing as the war drags on.
Ukraine's manpower gets ground down and western support doesn't keep pace with Russian escalation
Eventually the lines get broken and Russia storms through, capturing the western parts of Ukraine relatively quickly
High on victory and with a big war machine already running, Putin decides he can totally take the Baltics before America can really do anything about it and goes for it.
Agreed, likewise the inverse. Ukraine gains a decisive win on the southern front and decides that they're going to try and retake the Crimea. Russia nukes Kherson, Odessa, Melitopol, and Chaban to stave off a total collapse, and shit hits the fan.
Again, Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.
Very low. A world war necessarily involves at least 2 of the following: NATO, Russia, China.
I can see a path where Iran does something stupid and is promptly destroyed by the United States. But that would be where it ends. Russia already has its hands full and China doesn't seem interested in this kind of foreign adventure.
I don't think the US can "promptly" destroy Iran without nukes. And nukes make a world war very likely.
The most likely reason for Iran not becoming directly involved is geography. They can't invade without traversing the entire peninsula, and it's not like Syria and Jordan are so friendly with them they'd allow it or participate. They could presumably launch missiles, but conventional missiles don't decide a war, and they obviously invite direct retaliation.
Why? The nuke mythology --- nuclear winter this, radiation that, Fallout, "glassing", end of civilization, etc. --- creates a level of fear and hesitation in excess of what the effects of the weapons warrant. (I recall reading something about the nuclear winter concept being essentially made up for leftist political reasons in the 1980s.) If someone were to use a nuke in anger, this mythology would collapse. We'd come to understand that a nuclear warhead is merely a bomb that makes a bigger boom than other bombs and view 70 years of anti-nuke agitation as ignorant hysteria. With the "nuclear taboo" aside, why would a nuclear strike (especially a counter-force tactical nuke) cause a world war when a destructive conventional strike wouldn't?
The nuclear taboo is NOT aside. And if a nuke in the Middle East swept the taboo aside, Russia is freed to use its nuclear arsenal in Ukraine and then perhaps elsewhere... which again, brings you a lot closer to WWIII.
They wouldn't be able to "destroy" Iran without nukes, but conventional attacks would probably be enough to destroy whatever military capability they have to project power beyond their own borders, and the political situation within their own borders is dicey enough that it's a wild card; i.e. a rally around the flag effect could help the government, or getting entangled in a foreign war to help terrorists could be another addition to the list of grievances for last year's protestors.
From the nuclear nations which one will be willing to risk it's own existence as retaliation for Iran? Pakistan or North Korea probably? Pakistan could be bribed with Iran territory. China could be bribed with Iran's oil. Israel will be happy. Russia will gladly shrug for lesser sanctions and smaller aid in Ukraine. UK and France - meh. India - doubt it.
North Korea - who knows, but probably extremely low. The regime there is preoccupied with its own survival. Not with geopolitics at large. They seem to be happy to turn into an island.
Anyway - I think this is time to reconsider the battleship as a ship - just a delivery vehicle for dumb artillery and lots of it. That is protected by the carrier group.
Russia would be most likely, especially if lesser sanctions and smaller aid in Ukraine weren't forthcoming. Which I expect would be the case for a US arrogant enough to nuke Iran. Russia might take that as license to nuke Kyiv, for instance. But it's not going to happen; unless Iran goes nuclear themselves (which would mean they've successfully concealed completion of a nuclear weapons program), the US isn't going to nuke them. Nor Israel, unless a general Middle East war against them has already started with their backing, which also seems unlikely.
As for battleships, you can't win a war promptly with conventional artillery either. Eventually you'll have to invade. If you just keep shelling, we'll find out if Iran can figure a way to sink a carrier group.
If you just keep shelling, we'll find out if Iran can figure a way to sink a carrier group.
And if I remember correctly, wargame scenarios from the early 2000's (when the Navy was arguably in better shape) showed this exact scenario going very very badly for the US. So much so that they had to redo the wargame from scratch with heavy restrictions of the Red Team general to save face.
That's what it was, the "Millennium Challenge." On further review, the range limitations in the exercise were definitely a factor, but it's still not inspiring.
(However, be careful in reading these. Another source claims that the motorcycle messengers thing didn't happen and I have no way to research whether it's true.)
All pathways to WW3 seem to require Iran to get involved. So far, Iran has very much not got directly involved and there were some pretty high level controlled leaks from the Iranians that they were surprised by the scale of Hamas’ attack, even if the IRGC (as reported by WSJ) may have approved some form of aggression. Iran’s relations with Hamas are more frayed than they are with Hezbollah or the Houthis; Hamas is Sunni and they were initially on opposite sides of the Syrian Civil War.
Iran lacks the ability to easily project force to Israel. While troops could march (and they’d have to go overland) through Iraq and Syria to get to Israel they would be vulnerable doing so, supply lines would be stretched, and it would annoy the Iraqi Shia militias currently making huge oil profits from Iraq’s relative state of calm. Iran has medium range missiles capable of hitting Israel, but how many they have is unknown. Israel’s options for physical retaliation would be slim, but in many ways that reduces the risk that Iran acts overly aggressive out of fear.
Iran is in a good place in the region now, and that’s especially true as long as Iraq remains peaceful and largely ruled by Shia groups allied with Iran, and as long as Assad is in power in Syria. Shuffling the deck of cards isn’t in their interest. If Hezbollah decides enough is enough and goes in the Iranians will have to make a difficult decision, but even there i think direct engagement is very, very far from guaranteed. If Hezbollah is destroyed or severely damaged, the Iranian position remains quite strong.
Iran has medium range missiles capable of hitting Israel, but how many they have is unknown. Israel’s options for physical retaliation would be slim, but in many ways that reduces the risk that Iran acts overly aggressive out of fear.
Supposing that Iran did launch missals, would Israel be able to distinguish between conventional missals and WMDs (be they chemical and nuclear)?
And given that they wouldn't know the content of the missals launched by Iran, Israel would have to assume that they might be WMDs. By this I mean to say that a rockets from Iran to Israel might have the same problem as rockets launched from Russia to the USA, it would risk nuclear escalation given that you cannot determine the content of the missals, and given that there is a possibility that the missals are in fact a nuclear first strike.
Given the risk of escalation it it would seem unlikely that Iran proper directly attacks Israel.
You are assuming that the only way the war might propagate to Iran is if Iran decides to. But Israel could very well decide that for them. Iran has been weakened by recent anti regime protests and Israel's government needs to prove they do something about the security of their citizen without hurting Hamas too much because Hamas has hostages. It's not the most plausible issue, but game-theoretically hurting Iran is somewhat sound, just like nuking Belarus as a retaliation against Russia (see The Bomb by Fred Kaplan)
I imagine the US told Israel and Iran “we are putting two carrier groups close to Israel. Israel will not attack Iran. If Iran does anything the carrier groups will attack Iran.”
Really decreases the odds either party “starts” something.
Too far away. I looked it up for a previous comment on this thread.
Basically the published combat range of the aircraft in their inventory just barely reaches the closest border of Iran over the most direct possible route. Any worthwhile targets are even further. And those routes go over Jordan and Iraq, both of which are not particularly friendly to Israel. Any attempts to avoid them or fly evasive routes to be less visible to their air defense just makes the range problem even worse. The Israeli air force does have some tanker aircraft in inventory, but one or more midair refuelings in hostile airspace sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Missiles may be possible, but missiles without nukes just aren't very destructive and may not be worth the bother. A conventionally-armed missile is a strange enough thing to do that it's probably reasonable for any country to assume any medium range ballistic missile is nuclear and respond accordingly.
Israel might start with Hezbollah. It's a more realistic target than Iran, and it would be more explanable to the population (we can't get rid of the Hamas because hostages but we will get rid of hezbollah). I don't really believe it will happen, it's just something possible
Unclear in what quantities. At least for Israel analysts seem to think the number of medium range non-nuclear missiles capable of hitting Tehran is very modest.
If Israel drags both Sunni and Shia powers into the war, things will be unfortunate, but there will not be a united front for very long. I would expect that regional tensions between Iran and KSA will actually decrease temporarily, then the united front will fracture over time as the desires of the governments diverge from that of their populace and trust disintegrates.
I think we're less likely to see this war lead to the destruction of Israel, or WWIII, than we are to see it lead to further disintegration of MENA governments when they refuse to invade Israel as their populace demands.
The most likely path to this resulting in WW3 is several other actors deciding that now is the time for military adventurism because of America's finite response capacity.
When I created this megathread, here is what I posted to the moderator Discord:
A couple users asked for an Israel-Gaza megathread, it's maybe a bit late for that but maybe not so I went ahead and gave them one. I optimistically did not name it "World War III Opens on a Second Front."
My understanding of military decisions is exclusively historical and political, so I can't speak to the nuts and bolts of this, but every conflict like the ones in Ukraine and Israel opens the door a little wider for attacks of opportunity elsewhere. I am skeptical that China will ever invade Taiwan--the economic benefits of just rattling sabers at them for all of eternity seem far better than the ideological benefits of burning the island to cinders. I sometimes wonder if Taiwan is allowed to be what it is because someone in China read Brave New World and decided that an island of malcontent exiles was a pretty good idea, actually.
But their ability to get away with an invasion of Taiwan is certainly increased by contemporaneous conflict elsewhere.
Other contenders for the "next front in World War III" presumably include Iran and North Korea, ye olde Axis of Evil, but there are plenty of other places that could qualify. The flood of migrants arriving in Europe and the United States every day may be driven primarily by economics, but one of the worst things for any economy is armed conflict, and it is at some level armed conflict that almost all such migrants are ultimately fleeing. How much of the world needs be at war, to call it a World War?
Vox Day had some discussion on his site around the possibility of this spilling out into WW3. Basically it was through considering Ukraine/Russia, Iran/Israel and China/Taiwan as separate fronts. China and Russia both gain from flashpoints such as what is happening in Israel, as it draws focus and resources away from their spheres.
A world war is when the war is global. Even 10 local conflicts don't make a world war until there are two sides and japan allies with germany even though they are not fighting on the same continent. And by that, I mean that they declare war and peace together, not that they are allies in that they help each other somehow.
How much of the world needs be at war, to call it a World War?
When white and honorary white start to die in sufficient quantities.
You also missed the Nagorno Karabakh in "list of things that hit the fan recently" that I think is also result of embolden adversaries and weakened russia.
I always thought of the current axis of evil as laughable. All the countries there are pathetic and china wants not a part of it.
The Armenia thing is interesting. It’s one thing ethnically cleansing 30,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, quite another occupying a hostile nationalist population a third the size of your own with a different religion and 2000 year history.
A wider middle eastern war means Israel will fall unless christian troops enter the fray. Turkey is very worrying wild card and they will have zero resistance if they invade bulgaria and greece. Which have nothing to stop them with. And Ergodan has some ottoman restoration dreams. They may not even have to revoke the NATO membership to make things even more confusing. And they have couple of million of refugees that they can draft.
So right now western powers have choice - protect what is left of Bulgaria - mostly Sofia, northern parts above the Balkan mountains. Protect serbia or protect Vienna. Throw the mess in Ukraine. Assume that suddenly all those muslims we already accepted suddenly decide to cause trouble - no matter if provoked or not. So you will soon have a lot of crises. And you are just one or two in asia to have world war. Thank got that latin america is peaceful at least (in not a keg of powder sense)
Assad is still cleaning up a civil war and attempting reconstruction. Egypt under Sisi certainly isn’t going to get involved in defense of Hamas / the Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan isn’t either after their own history with the Palestinians.
So a “whole middle eastern war” against Israel involves who - maybe Hezbollah, Hamas and some Iranian support (probably not boots on the ground, though)? Maybe Iraqi Shia militias, although they don’t want a war now they’re in power there? the Gulf Arabs don’t want a victorious Iran turning its attention toward the holy cities and the gulf.
It’s all possible, of course, but is it likely? I don’t know.
Jordan isn’t either after their own history with the Palestinians.
Indeed; the West Bank Palestinians are more or less a poison pill preventing Jordan from invading, even if Jordan would otherwise want to. Same on for Gaza Palestinians and Egypt.
How is turkey going to succeed against greece and bulgaria where russia failed against ukraine, when they will get much more support, and presumably want to become turks even less than ukrainians want to become russians? Turkey’s military budget is 11 B (source) and greece 8 B, bulgaria 1B (This is a clue that bulgaria, contrary to greece, doesn’t think turkey is a threat to it). Given the budget ratio was 10-to-1 against ukraine, I will put turkey’s chances of conquering bulgaria and greece at approximately 0.
A wider middle eastern war means Israel will fall unless christian troops enter the fray.
Why would it mean that though? There have already been at least 3 wars (48, 67, 73) involving full-scale armies from multiple Arab nations attacking Israel, and they haven't fallen yet.
On paper, the Arab nations would appear to have ample forces to do the job. But historically, they've had trouble actually coordinating and committing to attacks. I see no reason to presume that that has changed. Syria and Egypt seem to have enough internal problems these days that it's hard to see them pulling off a large-scale offensive action.
Please describe other types of wide middle eastern war?
Don't forget that the previous wars were waged against secular governments. I don't know the current state of pan arabism but I think that it is ripe for one to try and get the reigns.
I don't understand? You asserted that "A wider middle eastern war means Israel will fall unless christian troops enter the fray". Exactly what war are you picturing that would plausibly lead to Israel falling without direct intervention? I mentioned several actual wars that happened. Multiple times, the nations surrounding Israel united to attack them, and each time, Israel did not fall. A number of other wars have also happened in the Middle East, none of which involved Israel at all or led to them falling.
I actually can't think of any war in the modern era in which any of the Arab nations displayed impressive offensive capability, as in assembling a large force and sending it outside their borders to capture foreign territory held by determined adversaries. Usually they only attack each other, and mostly bog down pretty quickly unless the region they're attacking basically gives up to them. They tend to smash their faces into a brick wall every time they try to attack territory held by Westernized forces.
Whether you or I think that the area is "ripe" for a united pan-Arab movement now, the fact is that it's been tried a bunch of times over the last century and failed every time. I don't see any reason to expect anything to be different now.
Turkey isn’t going to war with Greece any time soon. The country’s membership of NATO is central to all of its defense plans and pretty important to its national identity. Entirely possible it gets drawn into the next round of Armenia-Azerbaijan though.
Probably true 15 years ago. Erdogan has played with both turkish nationalism and islamism. I wouldn't be so optimistic. The west didn't accept Turkey as equal, I am not sure at least in the mind of the elite they want to be accepted any more.
Walterodim
Only equals speak the truth, that’s my thought on’t
Stefferi 1yr ago
Agree, but the likelihood is now higher than it was previously. If a set of global conflicts emerge with even loosely defined lines, I would expect it to be a product in no small part of opportunism in the face of the United States being spread too thin to be a reliable partner in stopping something like an attack on Taiwan. I don't really know how to put a meaningful percentage guess on the likelihood, but the combination of resources and materiel drained into Ukraine and naval assets being deployed to assist Israel commits the American military to a greater extent than is typical.
It seems like everyone always leaves out the possibility that China just... takes Taiwan. Like if the US does get spread pretty thin and China takes the opportunity, that doesn't automatically mean WWIII happens. Frankly, the thinner the US gets spread, the lower the odds of Taiwan being sufficient to trigger the war.
If the US is totally dominant, then China will wait and so no war occurs. If the US is severely weakened, then China will simply take Taiwan with minimal US intervention, and no world war occurs. It's only in some weird middle ground, where China perceives the US as spread too thin but the US still commits to defending Taiwan, that there's any risk of something major.
Of course, I've never been the worrying sort, and I'm not as opposed to war as the average person, so maybe I'm just underestimating the odds.
We've already seen the tendency of autocratic regimes to overestimate their own military capabilities in the current Ukraine-Russia war. And islands are notoriously easy to defend/hard to attack. If China just marches in and takes over, you're right. If China miscalculates, the first landing fails and the war turns into a longer slog/siege, the western public will most likely want to support Taiwan, similar to how it went with the Ukraine. Which may not guarantee WW3, but it adds another roll of the dice, and destabilizes the world further.
to support Taiwan, similar to how it went with the Ukraine
I agree with your overall point entirely, but this gets me thinking: would the western public have supported Ukraine if the US military/intelligence community didn't make sure that happened?
Most people's position on the war doesn't seem to be rooted in serious principles, and I have no doubt that if the regime pulled a Eurasia/Eastasia flip tomorrow, most of the public would follow.
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Notes -
What do you guys think are the chances this becomes WW3? ngl I'm starting to get a little worried
None of the major non-US powers required for WW3 (Russia, India, China) have great stakes in any of this. If Russia was losing in Ukraine, I'd be more worried.
The only power that cares is the US but none of its potential adversaries in the region (Lebanon, Iran) have nukes nor are any of remaining nuclear powers willing to use theirs to defend them. So a nothingburger. Sleep tight.
I think we can cross out Russia as able to do world war now. I guess using nukes maybe. But conventionally they are essentially Italy in WW2 at best now. A very minor front participant in conventional war.
The only path to WW is with Chinas involvement.
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Either Ukraine or Something involving China (be it Taiwan, or one of the ongoing territorial disputes with India, Japan, Vietnam, Et Al) both strike me as far more likely to "go global" than anything in the Middle East.
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Worried now? The Ukraine situation has been in danger of escalating into WW3 for almost 2 years.
This is kind of trivial in comparison.
The Ukraine situation contained genuine possibilities of escalation to an European war (which still wouldn't necessarily be WW3) for about a month after it started. After that, most of the WW3 talk (in the West, at least) has not been particularly good-faith from either side - either pro-Ukrainian "This is already a WW3, the West doesn't realize it, why isn't it intervening now?" spiel or Western pro-Russian "Oh no, the nukes might start flying at any moment! The West must avoid this by dropping all support to Ukraine now!" spiel.
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Negligible, unless retroactively incorporated into the story of WW3 just because it occurred around the same time.
There aren't any great powers on the side of Hamas, only Iran, and only partially. There are chances it could escalate to a war with Iran, but that would not be a world war.
The reality is: the next world war occurs either because China attacks Taiwan, or Russia invades a NATO country. The latter is... extremely unlikely.
Prior to February 2022 i may have agreed but I nolonger share your optomism in this regard. The Balkans are right there.
The scenario where I can maybe see Putin being emboldened to do something like that is
Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.
Agreed, likewise the inverse. Ukraine gains a decisive win on the southern front and decides that they're going to try and retake the Crimea. Russia nukes Kherson, Odessa, Melitopol, and Chaban to stave off a total collapse, and shit hits the fan.
Again, Likely scenario? No. But not totally implausible.
What?
Not the one in the north, the one sitting on the narrow strip connecting Crimea to the mainland.
There are two narrow strips that do that, one has Armyansk (and Perekop), the other has Chongar/Chonhar.
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Very low. A world war necessarily involves at least 2 of the following: NATO, Russia, China.
I can see a path where Iran does something stupid and is promptly destroyed by the United States. But that would be where it ends. Russia already has its hands full and China doesn't seem interested in this kind of foreign adventure.
The situation in Ukraine was/is more dangerous.
I think the concern is that Iran gets involved, the US responds, but is a paper tiger of sorts causing China to take Taiwan.
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I don't think the US can "promptly" destroy Iran without nukes. And nukes make a world war very likely.
The most likely reason for Iran not becoming directly involved is geography. They can't invade without traversing the entire peninsula, and it's not like Syria and Jordan are so friendly with them they'd allow it or participate. They could presumably launch missiles, but conventional missiles don't decide a war, and they obviously invite direct retaliation.
Why? The nuke mythology --- nuclear winter this, radiation that, Fallout, "glassing", end of civilization, etc. --- creates a level of fear and hesitation in excess of what the effects of the weapons warrant. (I recall reading something about the nuclear winter concept being essentially made up for leftist political reasons in the 1980s.) If someone were to use a nuke in anger, this mythology would collapse. We'd come to understand that a nuclear warhead is merely a bomb that makes a bigger boom than other bombs and view 70 years of anti-nuke agitation as ignorant hysteria. With the "nuclear taboo" aside, why would a nuclear strike (especially a counter-force tactical nuke) cause a world war when a destructive conventional strike wouldn't?
The nuclear taboo is NOT aside. And if a nuke in the Middle East swept the taboo aside, Russia is freed to use its nuclear arsenal in Ukraine and then perhaps elsewhere... which again, brings you a lot closer to WWIII.
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They wouldn't be able to "destroy" Iran without nukes, but conventional attacks would probably be enough to destroy whatever military capability they have to project power beyond their own borders, and the political situation within their own borders is dicey enough that it's a wild card; i.e. a rally around the flag effect could help the government, or getting entangled in a foreign war to help terrorists could be another addition to the list of grievances for last year's protestors.
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From the nuclear nations which one will be willing to risk it's own existence as retaliation for Iran? Pakistan or North Korea probably? Pakistan could be bribed with Iran territory. China could be bribed with Iran's oil. Israel will be happy. Russia will gladly shrug for lesser sanctions and smaller aid in Ukraine. UK and France - meh. India - doubt it.
North Korea - who knows, but probably extremely low. The regime there is preoccupied with its own survival. Not with geopolitics at large. They seem to be happy to turn into an island.
Anyway - I think this is time to reconsider the battleship as a ship - just a delivery vehicle for dumb artillery and lots of it. That is protected by the carrier group.
Russia would be most likely, especially if lesser sanctions and smaller aid in Ukraine weren't forthcoming. Which I expect would be the case for a US arrogant enough to nuke Iran. Russia might take that as license to nuke Kyiv, for instance. But it's not going to happen; unless Iran goes nuclear themselves (which would mean they've successfully concealed completion of a nuclear weapons program), the US isn't going to nuke them. Nor Israel, unless a general Middle East war against them has already started with their backing, which also seems unlikely.
As for battleships, you can't win a war promptly with conventional artillery either. Eventually you'll have to invade. If you just keep shelling, we'll find out if Iran can figure a way to sink a carrier group.
And if I remember correctly, wargame scenarios from the early 2000's (when the Navy was arguably in better shape) showed this exact scenario going very very badly for the US. So much so that they had to redo the wargame from scratch with heavy restrictions of the Red Team general to save face.
That's what it was, the "Millennium Challenge." On further review, the range limitations in the exercise were definitely a factor, but it's still not inspiring.
Millennium Challenge. See also the top answer from the defense consultant in this. Basically, Red "won" by using loopholes in the rules that failed to model reality.
(However, be careful in reading these. Another source claims that the motorcycle messengers thing didn't happen and I have no way to research whether it's true.)
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All pathways to WW3 seem to require Iran to get involved. So far, Iran has very much not got directly involved and there were some pretty high level controlled leaks from the Iranians that they were surprised by the scale of Hamas’ attack, even if the IRGC (as reported by WSJ) may have approved some form of aggression. Iran’s relations with Hamas are more frayed than they are with Hezbollah or the Houthis; Hamas is Sunni and they were initially on opposite sides of the Syrian Civil War.
Iran lacks the ability to easily project force to Israel. While troops could march (and they’d have to go overland) through Iraq and Syria to get to Israel they would be vulnerable doing so, supply lines would be stretched, and it would annoy the Iraqi Shia militias currently making huge oil profits from Iraq’s relative state of calm. Iran has medium range missiles capable of hitting Israel, but how many they have is unknown. Israel’s options for physical retaliation would be slim, but in many ways that reduces the risk that Iran acts overly aggressive out of fear.
Iran is in a good place in the region now, and that’s especially true as long as Iraq remains peaceful and largely ruled by Shia groups allied with Iran, and as long as Assad is in power in Syria. Shuffling the deck of cards isn’t in their interest. If Hezbollah decides enough is enough and goes in the Iranians will have to make a difficult decision, but even there i think direct engagement is very, very far from guaranteed. If Hezbollah is destroyed or severely damaged, the Iranian position remains quite strong.
Supposing that Iran did launch missals, would Israel be able to distinguish between conventional missals and WMDs (be they chemical and nuclear)?
And given that they wouldn't know the content of the missals launched by Iran, Israel would have to assume that they might be WMDs. By this I mean to say that a rockets from Iran to Israel might have the same problem as rockets launched from Russia to the USA, it would risk nuclear escalation given that you cannot determine the content of the missals, and given that there is a possibility that the missals are in fact a nuclear first strike.
Given the risk of escalation it it would seem unlikely that Iran proper directly attacks Israel.
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You are assuming that the only way the war might propagate to Iran is if Iran decides to. But Israel could very well decide that for them. Iran has been weakened by recent anti regime protests and Israel's government needs to prove they do something about the security of their citizen without hurting Hamas too much because Hamas has hostages. It's not the most plausible issue, but game-theoretically hurting Iran is somewhat sound, just like nuking Belarus as a retaliation against Russia (see The Bomb by Fred Kaplan)
I imagine the US told Israel and Iran “we are putting two carrier groups close to Israel. Israel will not attack Iran. If Iran does anything the carrier groups will attack Iran.”
Really decreases the odds either party “starts” something.
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It’s unclear Israel has the means to directly attack Iran other than with nukes.
Can you explain? Why couldn't a conventionally armed F-16, F-35, or missile without a nuclear warhead reach Iran?
Too far away. I looked it up for a previous comment on this thread.
Basically the published combat range of the aircraft in their inventory just barely reaches the closest border of Iran over the most direct possible route. Any worthwhile targets are even further. And those routes go over Jordan and Iraq, both of which are not particularly friendly to Israel. Any attempts to avoid them or fly evasive routes to be less visible to their air defense just makes the range problem even worse. The Israeli air force does have some tanker aircraft in inventory, but one or more midair refuelings in hostile airspace sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Missiles may be possible, but missiles without nukes just aren't very destructive and may not be worth the bother. A conventionally-armed missile is a strange enough thing to do that it's probably reasonable for any country to assume any medium range ballistic missile is nuclear and respond accordingly.
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Israel might start with Hezbollah. It's a more realistic target than Iran, and it would be more explanable to the population (we can't get rid of the Hamas because hostages but we will get rid of hezbollah). I don't really believe it will happen, it's just something possible
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Both countries have conventional missiles that can reach the other.
Unclear in what quantities. At least for Israel analysts seem to think the number of medium range non-nuclear missiles capable of hitting Tehran is very modest.
What if they were launched from a bomber?
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Very low.
If Israel drags both Sunni and Shia powers into the war, things will be unfortunate, but there will not be a united front for very long. I would expect that regional tensions between Iran and KSA will actually decrease temporarily, then the united front will fracture over time as the desires of the governments diverge from that of their populace and trust disintegrates.
I think we're less likely to see this war lead to the destruction of Israel, or WWIII, than we are to see it lead to further disintegration of MENA governments when they refuse to invade Israel as their populace demands.
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The most likely path to this resulting in WW3 is several other actors deciding that now is the time for military adventurism because of America's finite response capacity.
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When I created this megathread, here is what I posted to the moderator Discord:
My understanding of military decisions is exclusively historical and political, so I can't speak to the nuts and bolts of this, but every conflict like the ones in Ukraine and Israel opens the door a little wider for attacks of opportunity elsewhere. I am skeptical that China will ever invade Taiwan--the economic benefits of just rattling sabers at them for all of eternity seem far better than the ideological benefits of burning the island to cinders. I sometimes wonder if Taiwan is allowed to be what it is because someone in China read Brave New World and decided that an island of malcontent exiles was a pretty good idea, actually.
But their ability to get away with an invasion of Taiwan is certainly increased by contemporaneous conflict elsewhere.
Other contenders for the "next front in World War III" presumably include Iran and North Korea, ye olde Axis of Evil, but there are plenty of other places that could qualify. The flood of migrants arriving in Europe and the United States every day may be driven primarily by economics, but one of the worst things for any economy is armed conflict, and it is at some level armed conflict that almost all such migrants are ultimately fleeing. How much of the world needs be at war, to call it a World War?
Vox Day had some discussion on his site around the possibility of this spilling out into WW3. Basically it was through considering Ukraine/Russia, Iran/Israel and China/Taiwan as separate fronts. China and Russia both gain from flashpoints such as what is happening in Israel, as it draws focus and resources away from their spheres.
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A world war is when the war is global. Even 10 local conflicts don't make a world war until there are two sides and japan allies with germany even though they are not fighting on the same continent. And by that, I mean that they declare war and peace together, not that they are allies in that they help each other somehow.
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When white and honorary white start to die in sufficient quantities. You also missed the Nagorno Karabakh in "list of things that hit the fan recently" that I think is also result of embolden adversaries and weakened russia.
I always thought of the current axis of evil as laughable. All the countries there are pathetic and china wants not a part of it.
The Armenia thing is interesting. It’s one thing ethnically cleansing 30,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, quite another occupying a hostile nationalist population a third the size of your own with a different religion and 2000 year history.
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How?
Ground invasion -> Hezbollah -> USA -> Iran -> more shit idk until it's Armageddon
I admit not being exactly rational here (part of what I meant by "worried") that's why I'm asking this space
Sure, a wider Middle-Eastern war is possible, but quite a bit of a road to a genuine world war even from there.
A wider middle eastern war means Israel will fall unless christian troops enter the fray. Turkey is very worrying wild card and they will have zero resistance if they invade bulgaria and greece. Which have nothing to stop them with. And Ergodan has some ottoman restoration dreams. They may not even have to revoke the NATO membership to make things even more confusing. And they have couple of million of refugees that they can draft.
So right now western powers have choice - protect what is left of Bulgaria - mostly Sofia, northern parts above the Balkan mountains. Protect serbia or protect Vienna. Throw the mess in Ukraine. Assume that suddenly all those muslims we already accepted suddenly decide to cause trouble - no matter if provoked or not. So you will soon have a lot of crises. And you are just one or two in asia to have world war. Thank got that latin america is peaceful at least (in not a keg of powder sense)
Assad is still cleaning up a civil war and attempting reconstruction. Egypt under Sisi certainly isn’t going to get involved in defense of Hamas / the Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan isn’t either after their own history with the Palestinians.
So a “whole middle eastern war” against Israel involves who - maybe Hezbollah, Hamas and some Iranian support (probably not boots on the ground, though)? Maybe Iraqi Shia militias, although they don’t want a war now they’re in power there? the Gulf Arabs don’t want a victorious Iran turning its attention toward the holy cities and the gulf.
It’s all possible, of course, but is it likely? I don’t know.
Is hezbollah likely to get involved? I would think that the time to do so for them had already happened.
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Indeed; the West Bank Palestinians are more or less a poison pill preventing Jordan from invading, even if Jordan would otherwise want to. Same on for Gaza Palestinians and Egypt.
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How is turkey going to succeed against greece and bulgaria where russia failed against ukraine, when they will get much more support, and presumably want to become turks even less than ukrainians want to become russians? Turkey’s military budget is 11 B (source) and greece 8 B, bulgaria 1B (This is a clue that bulgaria, contrary to greece, doesn’t think turkey is a threat to it). Given the budget ratio was 10-to-1 against ukraine, I will put turkey’s chances of conquering bulgaria and greece at approximately 0.
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Why would it mean that though? There have already been at least 3 wars (48, 67, 73) involving full-scale armies from multiple Arab nations attacking Israel, and they haven't fallen yet.
On paper, the Arab nations would appear to have ample forces to do the job. But historically, they've had trouble actually coordinating and committing to attacks. I see no reason to presume that that has changed. Syria and Egypt seem to have enough internal problems these days that it's hard to see them pulling off a large-scale offensive action.
Please describe other types of wide middle eastern war? Don't forget that the previous wars were waged against secular governments. I don't know the current state of pan arabism but I think that it is ripe for one to try and get the reigns.
I don't understand? You asserted that "A wider middle eastern war means Israel will fall unless christian troops enter the fray". Exactly what war are you picturing that would plausibly lead to Israel falling without direct intervention? I mentioned several actual wars that happened. Multiple times, the nations surrounding Israel united to attack them, and each time, Israel did not fall. A number of other wars have also happened in the Middle East, none of which involved Israel at all or led to them falling.
I actually can't think of any war in the modern era in which any of the Arab nations displayed impressive offensive capability, as in assembling a large force and sending it outside their borders to capture foreign territory held by determined adversaries. Usually they only attack each other, and mostly bog down pretty quickly unless the region they're attacking basically gives up to them. They tend to smash their faces into a brick wall every time they try to attack territory held by Westernized forces.
Whether you or I think that the area is "ripe" for a united pan-Arab movement now, the fact is that it's been tried a bunch of times over the last century and failed every time. I don't see any reason to expect anything to be different now.
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Turkey isn’t going to war with Greece any time soon. The country’s membership of NATO is central to all of its defense plans and pretty important to its national identity. Entirely possible it gets drawn into the next round of Armenia-Azerbaijan though.
Probably true 15 years ago. Erdogan has played with both turkish nationalism and islamism. I wouldn't be so optimistic. The west didn't accept Turkey as equal, I am not sure at least in the mind of the elite they want to be accepted any more.
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Agree, but the likelihood is now higher than it was previously. If a set of global conflicts emerge with even loosely defined lines, I would expect it to be a product in no small part of opportunism in the face of the United States being spread too thin to be a reliable partner in stopping something like an attack on Taiwan. I don't really know how to put a meaningful percentage guess on the likelihood, but the combination of resources and materiel drained into Ukraine and naval assets being deployed to assist Israel commits the American military to a greater extent than is typical.
It seems like everyone always leaves out the possibility that China just... takes Taiwan. Like if the US does get spread pretty thin and China takes the opportunity, that doesn't automatically mean WWIII happens. Frankly, the thinner the US gets spread, the lower the odds of Taiwan being sufficient to trigger the war.
If the US is totally dominant, then China will wait and so no war occurs. If the US is severely weakened, then China will simply take Taiwan with minimal US intervention, and no world war occurs. It's only in some weird middle ground, where China perceives the US as spread too thin but the US still commits to defending Taiwan, that there's any risk of something major.
Of course, I've never been the worrying sort, and I'm not as opposed to war as the average person, so maybe I'm just underestimating the odds.
We've already seen the tendency of autocratic regimes to overestimate their own military capabilities in the current Ukraine-Russia war. And islands are notoriously easy to defend/hard to attack. If China just marches in and takes over, you're right. If China miscalculates, the first landing fails and the war turns into a longer slog/siege, the western public will most likely want to support Taiwan, similar to how it went with the Ukraine. Which may not guarantee WW3, but it adds another roll of the dice, and destabilizes the world further.
I agree with your overall point entirely, but this gets me thinking: would the western public have supported Ukraine if the US military/intelligence community didn't make sure that happened?
Most people's position on the war doesn't seem to be rooted in serious principles, and I have no doubt that if the regime pulled a Eurasia/Eastasia flip tomorrow, most of the public would follow.
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