BayesWatch
17d ago
It's totally plausible that Musk will ask for another similar contract. I think he's mentioned that. Getting from 50 billion to 1 trillion is much bigger deal than getting it from 1 trillion to say 5 trillion. He could reaosnably request a new contract where he's rewarded with options equal to 1% of the company for every 250 billion he adds to the market cap. It's more plausible than his last contract. He merges xAI with Tesla, gets Tesla's GPU business going, FSD seems to be making massive improvements in the past months, maybe robotics and boom, your at 5 trillion, it certainly more plausible than getting Tesla from 47 billion (which was seen as overvalued) to 1 trillion. So another contract like this is totally plausible.
BayesWatch
17d ago
Yes, but in today's money talk, Matt Levine spoke about the tax implications of a new contract in Texas. In short, a new contract in Texas will have massively negative tax implications.
BayesWatch
17d ago
Musk wasn't even working at the company full-time throughout the relevant time period.
During the relevant time period Tesla nearly went bankrupt, they had massive production delays and had set up assembly lines in tents, and Musk was sleeping in the factory. He could have been working at his other companies, namely SpaceX and OpenAI.
Sure, after that things were smooth sailing. But he could have spent his time on other stuff. If this ruling holds, Musk's current 17 or so percent of Tesla is worth about as much as his 40 percent stake in SpaceX given the current evaluation of >350 billion. There was a massive opportunity cost in spending that time at Tesla. Around that time he co-founded OpenAI, perhaps if he had more time to spend on OpenAI it would have been a better use of his time. Since the first ruling he founded a new AI startup that is currently worth over 50 billion dollars. In a very real sense, Musk could have created that much value in numerous other ways, his wealth wasn't necessarily as tied to Tesla as you might think.
More than that, it's unjust. When he made the contract it seemed absurd. He would take this horrible company and get rewarded for every 50 billion dollars he added to the market cap. It was a tremendous deal to the share holders, 1% of the company each time he increases it's starting value by over 100%. We know the opportunity cost of Musk's time. His other companies at the time included openAI, and SpaceX. There was in fact a massive opportunity cost, which is further demonstrated by xAI.
BayesWatch
2mo ago
I believe that there are degrees of bunker buster missiles. What they have isn't sufficient to get through the mountains near Tehran.
BayesWatch
2mo ago
They want US bunker busters sufficient to get at Iranian reactors under mountains. That is the existential threat. The only way Israel can get to the reactors is to use nukes. Israel's terminal value is preventing Iran from getting nukes. Forcing the US's hand is the only plausible way this happens. To this end they are incentivized to continue escalating in the hope that US has to join, and attack Iran itself, at least from the air.
BayesWatch
4mo ago
I'm pretty sure they just boobie trapped the apartment they knew he would be staying in.
BayesWatch
4mo ago
Iran can start attacking every vessel in the strait of Hormuz and cause a global recession.
We don't know what kind of outcome Iran was aiming for last time, it might have just been a token retaliation, and thus not an accurate demonstration of their actual ability to strike Israel. If they were actually trying to strike Israel, they would first overwhelm missile defenses with rockets from Lebanon, where they have the capacity to do so. Iran's failed strike against Israel was symbolic. A real strike would start with waves of rockets from Lebanon.
BayesWatch
7mo ago
That's pretty great!
BayesWatch
7mo ago
Do you like her?
BayesWatch
11mo ago
Darwin. You're back! Good to have you!
BayesWatch
1yr ago
But that has nothing to do with Turkey bacon, which is fine.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Bezos, Musk, etc. have fortunes but that money is not making its way to me.
To the degree that they have cash it is making it's way to you about as much as any other cash, as for their wealth, that they created, they did so by creating lots of utility. I can order something online and have it the very same day. That's awesome. Thanks Jeff. You deserve all that money for doing something so awesome. You earned it! Thanks Elon for the cool cars and internet!
These are things people want (we know this because people pay them for these things).
BayesWatch
1yr ago
That's the first coherent 5D chess explanation for what's going on at Twitter.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Trump AG prosecute Obama, Biden,Hilary, Fauci etc.. Also people who criticize him. People get violent. Atmosphere of fear, people are afraid that one wrong move will fracture the republic (or try to make that move because it feels virtuous given that your side is right).
Replace generals with Trump loyalists? That doesn't get you all the way there, but it helps. Then you have a choice between an internal military coup to get rid of the Trump loyalists at the top, and maybe they say that it's better to have another term of Trump than to destroy the Republic; they might be right.
You could see how they would think it's reasonable. The first term didn't count because the deep state interfered, and this makes some kind of internal sense, so this would be his first real full term, or maybe the next one, because he will need to use this one to eradicate the deep state.
Ya, I have a hard time seeing any of this happening.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Well, there is always the verboten topic of the "meme sex". Probably going to get modded again for even uttering the words.
Meme sex? What does that mean? That one sex is more susceptible to cultural programming?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Is your model that Israel is trying to kill as many people as possible? The world would look different if that were the case. There would be a lot more dead people.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
The point being argued is whether or not Israel has been seeking a ceasefire - the "mowing the grass" term refers to them accepting a policy that requires going in and doing that every few years.
In response to new escalations. They they make a new ceasefire. Hamas defects. Defection escalates until they mow the grass again. Repeat the cycle. Which is the point. This cease fire, like all cease fires, would be followed by Hamas defection and escalation until they have to go in again.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
"mowing the grass"
When they go in every couple of years and collapse tunnels, destroy weapons depots, and take out terrorists? What follows from that? Should they not do that?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
After Israel's war with Hamas is over are they going to deliver a bunch of resources to Gaza and the West Bank to help the development of a peaceful Palestinian state? I am skeptical!
If they thought that this was a viable possibility? Maybe. I think that the hatred is a bit more entrenched than it was in Japan/Germany.
I mean, it's hard to imagine that they won't use resources to try to destroy Israel. When given a choice they have show that that is exactly what they will do.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
ex-Presidents are not held to the same standards as the common man
Of course they aren't, this is priced in, it's standard wisdom. We try not to prosecute the previous president so as not to become a banana republic.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
I think that the prediction markets might be pricing in things like 3rd parties, which a Trump vs Biden poll doesn't account for.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Eisman from the Big Short
YU is the equivalent of the Jewish state school, and it is far better than the meadian state school.
BayesWatch
1yr ago
Why?
BayesWatch
1yr ago
I don't like baseball, but I do like well crafted videos, and the you tube channel "baseball doesn't exist" has a lots of good videos that just so happen to be about baseball. So that might make a good entry point!
Huge tax implications for Musk, also a large short term accounting hit to Tesla.
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