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naraburns  nihil supernum  29d ago (text post)   27017 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

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Sampling early reactions on Reddit, I’ve seen a wide range of opinions about What Went Wrong For Democrats last night. While I’m encouraged by the amount of “what did you people expect when you decided to call everyone Nazis” scolding, I’m very intrigued by one of the counter-narratives I’ve already seen congealing: Kamala ran too far to the right, alienating and demoralizing millions of committed progressives and black voters, causing them not to vote this time around. She courted and crowed about the support of neocons, made noises about securing the border and getting tough on crime, and progressives turned on her by staying home.

Now, how much of this is just a knee-jerk coping mechanism by people desperately attempting to make sense of what just happened while preserving their egos? I have no idea. I sincerely hope that in the fullness of time, at least some of these people attempt some level of soul-searching, however abortive and ultimately futile, about why they have been so comprehensively rebuked by the American people. Presumably they will have ample time and opportunity to do so while imprisoned in crystals

However, I actually hope that this leads to massive finger-pointing, pouting, lashing out, and crybullying by black Democrats. One of the big stories last night is that, despite a very modest shift toward Trump among black men, Trump[EDIT: Harris] still carried roughly 90% of the black vote. While nearly every other sizeable ethnic group in American shifted heavily toward Trump, blacks - at least, the ones who voted - remained unfailingly loyal to the Democratic Party. My sense is that blacks are going to take this loss extremely personally, and that it will sting them to no end.

I watched CNN’s coverage last night, and while nearly every single on-air analyst was refreshingly clear-eyed about the reasons why Kamala was losing and how this should not be some huge surprise to anyone, Van Jones was a maudlin mess, on the verge of sobbing as he lamented how black women, who “dared to dream that they might make up tomorrow and see one of their own get a turn in power”, were hurting. Well, I hope they are! And I hope that they become very obnoxious about it, hurling invective and accusations at their non-black friends and colleagues. I want them to be so overbearing about this that even the most committed “ally” begins to feel the Fatigue™️. Black women are convinced that the rest of America doesn’t want to see a Strong and Aggrieved Black Woman in charge. I hope that they’re right, and that their behavior becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy!

I hope that as racial polarization between various non-black interest groups begins to dissipate, polarization between blacks and everybody else accelerates. And I hope that this alienation leads to a nation-wide reconsideration of delusions about crime, about policing, about affirmative action/DEI/reparations, about “racial justice issues”, and about the profound and long-lasting overreaches of the Civil Rights Revolution. I am in favor of literally any development that could cause the Democratic Party to permanently pivot away from their pandering to the black vote, black issues, black guilt-tripping, etc.

I’m saying all of this, fully aware that it is itself a delirious overreaction. Like probably many of you, I got to sleep very late last night and am still coasting on a political sugar high. I want this to have sweeping, seismic effects on the future of America, and of the Democratic Party. Hell, I want to be able to be happy to vote Democrat again someday! I want the Democrats to offer me even a marginally preferable product, such that I can one day extricate myself from the “multiracial working-class populist coalition” that apparently catapulted Trump to victory last night. If Democrats want me back, somewhere far down the line, I’m going to need to see some hardcore soul-searching alongside tangible results before I can ever consider taking a step back into the fold. In the meantime, I’m daring to believe that over the next four years Trump and his team of consultants genuinely can start Making America Great Again.

I don't think there has ever been even one election anywhere where there hasn't been some faction of the losing side saying that the reason they lost was being too centrist and not running a clear ideological campaign. It's one of the easiest analyses to make and will always find at least some traction with the party's left-wing/right-wing/liberal/conservative/separatist/whatever faction that's been chafing under the party's attempts to moderate and become attractive to general voter base in order to win elections.

I sincerely hope that in the fullness of time, at least some of these people attempt some level of soul-searching, however abortive and ultimately futile, about why they have been so comprehensively rebuked by the American people.

I don't dispute that some soul searching is in order, but she lost by just 2.3%. You're talking as though Trump won in a landslide.

You're talking as though Trump won in a landslide.

Losing by 2.3% against a convicted felon, rapist, insurrectionist, fraudster, racist and a nazi is a landslide.

by the amount of “what did you people expect when you decided to call everyone Nazis” scolding, I’m very intrigued by one of the counter-narratives

The ironic thing about the Democrats accusing everybody they dislike of being "Nazis", "Fascists", and "White-Supremacists", is that the real honest-to-god Nazis and White Supremacists tend to vote Democrat.

I suppose a true fascist recognizes thier own.

Isn't this for accelerationist reasons?

Maybe, but he also endorsed Biden back in 2016, at which point does it matter?

I don't think Richard Spencer's endorsement matters, but I think his motivation may.

It reads to me like the 'Sex traffickers for Harris' yard signs I saw. Mocking.

If his endorsement doesn't matter, why would his motivation?

I’m daring to believe that over the next four years Trump and his team of consultants genuinely can start Making America Great Again.

By pressing the make the economy good button along with the make inflation not have happened button? I expect a bit better from the users here no matter who they hoped would win the idea that either of them were gonna effect the economy in any major way in the short term betrays a bit of a lack of understanding.

By pressing the make the economy good button along with the make inflation not have happened button?

Not the op, but...

More like by pressing the "rocket engines go burrrrrrr" button and not pressing certain other buttons that a Harris administration would've almost certainly pressed.

To be clear, I don’t expect the economy to significantly turn around under Trump. There are other measures by which a country can be great, though, and I do believe that the Trump administration, both through direct action and through not hamstringing private industry, can contribute significantly to increasing America’s greatness along those axes.

I would disagree. I think we are going to see full ID Trump tariffs and all. I don't think he has the patience for anyone that is going to tell him no and he's gonna pull the trigger on any idea he has that can pass legally unchallenged though EOs or he can get the legislature to pass. The two things I am most sure of in the next 4 years is that he will 1. hurt the people who believe he is the only one who can help him 2. ruin JD Vances political career through either malice or indifference.

As as aside I also highly suspect Musk overestimates the influence what he has done for Trump has bought him but this is just a hunch.

I’ve always been suspicious of the narrative of “alienating the base” for the democrats (AKA not being woke or economically left enough), simply because most of those positions are not held by that many people. The number of people out of nearly 400 million who would not put up with Kamala’s rather tepid support of Israel is probably not that big. Likewise, the number of people turned off because her economic plans were too moderate seems fairly small. Especially since the only viable alternative is a guy who’s basically running on “take everything the liberals like and destroy it as hard as we possibly can”. The Trump answer to all of the positions these people are left of her on Trump is radically on the right on. Trump is not shy about supporting Israel — he wants Israel to “finish the job (presumably of blowing up Gaza)”. Trumps plan for student loans is “make the student pay back the loans”. Trumps plan for the environment is “let’s pull out of all the agreements, drill baby drill, and deregulate so it’s easier to pollute without consequences”. There just isn’t a way to punish the dems on this when the alternative is “not only get literally nothing you actually want, but lose things you have now.

There just isn’t a way to punish the dems on this when the alternative is “not only get literally nothing you actually want, but lose things you have now.

Trump wins Dearborn amid anger over Gaza and Lebanon

"The Muslim community is united in principle against the Biden Harris administration, especially for the genocide," he said.

Not that I disagree with your logic, but people are willing to punish the Dems regardless. How should we explain this apparent voting against your own preferred outcomes? (I can understand the Muslim voters who believe in tackling domestic problems first, but not the ones who explicitly name Gaza as a reason to vote for Trump.)

I can understand Muslim voters being mad enough at Kamala over Gaza to cast around and decide that they agree with Trump's agenda for other reasons. And it's not improbable seeming to me, either- AFAICT Dearborn has similar demographics to pre-9/11 Muslim-Americans, and the GOP did quite well among them back in the day.

While black women are as committed as ever to the Democratic party, black men may be edging towards the exit.

https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1854233305450746255

Have we brought up yet the possible effect on Republicans of the lack of movement of the black vote by any reasonable means? If the conclusion is that blacks will vote Dem by >90% pretty much no matter what they do, possibly up to making them practically immune from prosecution and given unlimited money, then it naturally follows that their votes should be suppressed somehow rather than attempting to earn them.

My sense is that blacks are going to take this loss extremely personally, and that it will sting them to no end.

Joy Reid, Van Jones and co will (because their status depends on it) but will most?

Do we have turnout figures, because that can be as/more telling. It feels like there was a lack of enthusiasm even as the usual black pundits lined up behind Kamala making the expected noises.

And not in the Obama "we don't think he can win" sort of way.

I think there’s some truth to it. Trying to outflank Republicans to the right on Israel seems like a puzzling strategy and it absolutely tanked Harris in Michigan. In Dearborn she came in third place behind Trump and Jill Stein. I think that also depressed turnout by liberal college students in a number of places. And most people who were seriously pro-Israel voted for Trump and Republicans anyway, because Republicans have a better established track record on supporting Israel.

This isn't accurate, she lost a significant portion of her expected vote to Jill Stein, but she didn't finish third.

Trump won with 42.48% of the vote over Vice President Kamala Harris, who received 36.26%, according to results, with 100% of precincts counted, provided to the Free Press from City Clerk George Darany. Jill Stein received 18.37% of the vote.

I mean, the damnYankees(one word) are the ethnic group everyone else is polarizing against. That’s been the story of the past decade or so in politics. Sometimes they’re joined by the blacks, but it’s pretty clearly a damnyankee driven phenomenon.

Trump still carried roughly 90% of the black vote.

Given context, I assume you meant Harris.

I’m very intrigued by one of the counter-narratives I’ve already seen congealing: Kamala ran too far to the right,

Obviously there's a lot of different takes on what happened in the election. One of the narratives is around Trump talking about the economy being bad and Harris not doing so. And for a certain segment of the left, running to the left would involve talking about left-leaning economy policies (antitrust/breaking up monopolies, stronger regulations, etc.), and Harris was avoiding doing so. So people who believe in those policies and believe they are popular are upset that they aren't being proposed (and think this is a plot by wealthy interests to keep pro-business policies around).

While I support such policies and wanted Biden (yeah, I know he wasn't on the ballot) to win because I think that was the best chance of such policies being enacted, I really don't believe they are broadly popular. If you directly ask the American people if they want food poisoning and monopolies raising prices, I assume you'd get a lot of "no"s, but if you bring them policy proposals to do something about it, they'll vote it down as wonkish and anti-freedom.

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