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Notes -
The winds seems to be shifting
Joe Biden's twitter account posted
https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1809310761933525304
To which the official sopranos account pinned this gem of a tweet
https://x.com/TheSopranosX/status/1809560815952867476
a picture of tony soprano saying "If You Gotta Keep Saying You're the Boss, You're Not the Boss"
First - whoever did this - this is real sniper shot aimed at Biden's biggest vulnerability. Not that he is senile, but that it is not in charge.
Second - the disarray in the bluish part of the purple blob is public - so in the last few days - Trump campaign can make literal clips of prominent democrats and left leaning people explaining why Biden is not fit for president. And other big part of the blue blob is busy suppling the Trump campaign with hot takes why Kamala Harris is not fit to be president. All in all clusterfuck.
One of the historical dangers of coups is that if the forces are evenly matched they could turn into nasty civil wars - seems the direction the dems are going.
Edit: Another point not about lately is Kamala Harris best shot to be president is just to be elected vice and then wait for him to die in office which is not that implausible. And she gets no negatives if the election is lost and is in a strong position for 2028.
https://nypost.com/2024/07/04/us-news/bidens-inner-circle-has-shrunk-to-these-two-men-sources-say-with-one-liked-to-rasputin/
I don’t know if this is true or just gossip. But this gay Mexican from no where college might be the one running our country now.
In a strange twist of fate it appears as though we all need to hope Hunter is the one in charge. Whose a manageable alcoholic degenerate rich kid likely with well above average IQ.
Now I think the deep state exists but there is obviously no puppet master, Tywin Lannister, behind it. But a form of psychic history where a million members of the blob attempt to maintain their seat in it.
Hunter Biden having any influence is hilarious and horrifying. I’m not sure why no one is talking about this. His past drug use isn’t the issue. The issue is that he’s the most blackmailable person in America. His texts talk about Russian prostitutes, he did god knows what in Ukraine in his free time, he did god knows what when he met with the spy chief on China. He demonstrates poor impulse control and poor ethics (selling access to his father to sensitive foreign countries). And now he’s the one influencing the President. He has been so immunized by the media that, like, what the fuck can the media do to even take him down at this point? We’ve all seen the sex tapes, crack pipes and strange messages, we know he was illegally possessing a firearm, we know he took money from China and oligarchs banned from entering the US. I guess you reap what you sow — if Democrats go down because Hunter influenced Joe to stay in the race, that’s beautiful justice.
When the Hunter conviction came out there was a popular quip along the lines of "That settles it, I'm not voting for Hunter for president". What a fun reversal that now Hunter sits in on meetings with his dad and is his dad's top advisor along with Jill.
Yes that was all over Reddit as the response that had to filtered down as what your suppose to say.
I forgot about that, but he is literally like 20-30% in charge right now. Jill a similar percent. Gay Mexican? Blinken?
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What would you blackmail him over? Almost any accusation you make, everyone on the right would believe but it wouldn't shift their opinion, everyone on the left would pretend not to (and it still wouldn't shift their opinion), and Joe's still got the pardon pen. Maybe if you had photos of him in flagrante delicto with an obvious child, but so far as I've heard, Hunter Biden doesn't swing that way.
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I've been around long enough to remember when, pre-election, the attempt to focus on the Hunter Biden laptop was dismissed with the blithe response along the lines of 'We're not electing Hunter to office', roughly paraphrased. Amoung others, yes, but that's one that stuck in my mental craw.
And yet, here we are.
There's a lesson to be learned here, but the people whom need to learn it will never listen.
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No it's not. Joe Biden will very assuredly lose and Kamala Harris would only very probably lose.
Excepting extremely popular incumbent Presidents (which Trump obviously isn’t) a red/blue party nominee likely has at least 20-25% chance of winning even if polling makes it unlikely.
Yeah. Even Biden in his corpse arc still isn't below 30-40%
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Very much not, I would think. It's looking very much like she will not be elected vice-president again, barring some immense turnaround in the polls. If she goes into a primary in 2028 I would not think she is going to finish among the five top vote-getters. Her unique advantage and only asset is that at this point she is the candidate the Dems can pivot to without risking fragmentation, especially if Biden gives her the Official Blessing.
So her best play to be President at this point is to sit back and let others push Biden out, and then gracefully (if mock-regrettingly!) accept the scepter.
Hey, you called it.
This felt less like a prediction and more like a lay-up. I couldn't see any other course of action for the Democrats.
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As in not be nominated for the upcoming cycle? I don't really see any reason for Biden to turf her out, nor is there really a heir apparent. Her best shot to be President is either Biden resignation after winning, or getting essentially handed the nom by an exiting Biden now. It'd be very surprising if she won the nomination in a 2028 primary.
I think @johnfabian's claim is that Biden will very probably lose if retained, which would mean Harris would not become VP and would not be able to become President upon Biden's death.
He might step down immediately in which case she would be President for 2 months, I guess.
The sitcom Veep had this exact arc. One of the great lines was 'thanks to you this country will never have a female president again, because we had one and she SUCKED'.
Or something to that effect. The VP is cut out of the loop, playing petty power games in her own isolated world and desperately seeking the Presidents attention which is never given.
The Harris vice presidency is basically Veep, but Harris is somewhat less consequential.
I think Selina is much smarter and more calculating than Kamala, though.
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Eh next nomination will be a contested field. I think this is why Newsom's gotten behind the Biden run since he'd be way more handicapped by Harris running-and-winning than anything else. Practically all the other non-Harris challengers are better off with Biden running and losing than potentially getting sidelined behind somebody who actually wins and has a second term of eligibility.
Biden win means it's pretty open slather next cycle.
Issue at the moment for the replacement enthusiasts is that they need Biden to resign.
Yes, Harris is best served by Biden winning 2024 and handing the presidency to her after an agreed-upon period (six months, a year, it doesn’t really matter) OR, if it has to happen, by him dropping out at the very last minute such that she has to be the nominee. Newsom is best served by Trump winning in 2024, which would both give momentum to the Dem candidate in ‘28 and mean a longer open primary.
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