domain:forecasting.substack.com
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
6m ago
I'm basically a single-issue voter on this issue of identity.
Fair enough, there are issues that move me this way too. But I think it's important to recognize there are valid reasons why either side won't drop everything to get your support. It's a very limited set of circumstances where a one-issue voter gets to exercise influence.
This wing can actually win primaries/elections in very left-leaning areas; for example, they are going to be running San Francisco as of the recent election
I don't think I heard of this. Who won, and what are they planning to do for meritocracy?
On the other hand, the anti-hereditarian meritocrats on the Republican party, like Ramaswamy, seem to get slaughtered in primaries.
And then they get appointed to high positions by people who win them... what's the problem?
I'll give a line: better for the country than the median citizen in some measure combining ability to assimilate and ability to contribute.
I don't think it's the ability to assimilate that's the problem, because that's actually pretty high for most people. The problem is that there is next no pressure to assimilate anymore, the very idea of putting such pressure is seen as deplorable, and higher immigration will necessarily lower that pressure even more.
Given how dominant US culture and values are globally, it shouldn't be very hard to find a huge number of people making this cut.
It would still imply mass deportations, wouldn't it?
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
7m ago
It's funny how fuckingfascists is clearly a sincere left-wing operation - not a hint of anime.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
19m ago
I don't encounter this as much as I might in an English-only environment (though I am sometimes in those), but I find and have always found that a sense of humor works wonders. Even if you don't change anyone's mind, at least you've made someone laugh (even if that someone is only yourself.) I can't script your situations obviously so this advice may be useless to you, but generally I wouldn't take such jibes particularly personally. There's a whole ethos taking this kind of I'm With Stupid (and stupid is Men) as some kind of norm, but also women may have been through any number of situations that may have embittered them or otherwise turned them shrewish. Take the high (and humorous) road if possible.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
25m ago
So he's scandalous and unqualified? Again, why is everyone losing their shit?
orthoxerox
If you can read this, you're using a custom theme
27m ago
I can't believe an entire country is so relaxed about being known as casual scammers
India is simply too massive. They have a smoldering Maoist insurgency that took them 50 years to suppress. It used to control more territory and people than most European states did and most people outside India have never heard of it. Phone scammers are a not even a blip on the internal Indian radar.
George_E_Hale
insufferable blowhard
28m ago
The reddit link has its top post reading "Removed by Reddit." God I hate what that site has become.
Lizzardspawn
33m ago
Same with the daily show. It was amazing 2004-2012.
Lizzardspawn
36m ago
So why did the Babylon Bee manage to overtake them in terms of relevancy?
They are still funny. The Onion will never have the balls to publish
https://babylonbee.com/news/to-protest-coronation-of-aragorn-orcs-announce-sex-strike
To Protest Coronation Of Aragorn, Orcs Announce Sex Strike GORGOROTH, MORDOR — Orcs have banded together in protest of King Aragorn following his coronation in Minas Tirith, announcing a sex strike until he is dethroned.
"As an orc, my bodily autonomy matters and this is my way to exercise sovereignty over an Aragorn kingdom, you filthy man-flesh," said Stavruk, an orc fluent in common speech.
Screeches of "No more sex!", "My body, my choice!", and "Ovaries Before Brovaries!" have spread throughout the land of Mordor like wildfire, with some even reporting the sex strike spreading to orcs as far north as Dol Guldur.
urquan
37m ago
I don't agree with the violence of your post, but I just wanted to say that the passion you've shown here represents the same feeling of horror and outrage that I feel at abortion. That you're receiving comments discussing social reality rather than grappling with the serious moral quandry you've described demonstrates your point -- we are so far lost that even the possibility that people might consider this a tragedy is unimaginable to many. I find it contemptible that we find people incapable of understanding the horror and compassion behind the pro-life position.
I do often feel that our civilization will end in nuclear exchange, and I agree with you that, for this among many reasons, we will deserve it. God has cast his rainbow in the sky as a sign of peace, and in response we have cast our own rainbow in the sky as a symbol of pride. Though he has promised not to again strike at mankind or to scatter us as he once did, he permits us to build again our towers of babel and to spread our own great flood in a deluge of fallout, that we might repent, covered in sackcloth and radioactive ashes.
Botond173
38m ago
I vaguely remember some right-wingers (at least Walt Bismarck for sure) making the argument a couple of months ago that it’s a dumb mistake on the part of some(?) Republicans to agitate against Taylor Swift due to her activism. Their reasoning was that it doesn’t make political sense to alienate the swifties, as most of them are just average women who don’t necessarily reject traditional gender norms and aren’t hardliner wokes. In light of recent election results, what can we make of this argument in retrospect?
Folamh3
45m ago
And you don't find it all odd that your proposed policy is 100% benefit, 0% cost?
I have no idea what this question means.
"there is absolutely nothing anyone in the entire world could possibly have done that could have reduced Covid deaths in any way"
I never said that, don't put words in my mouth.
ulyssessword
46m ago
As a side note, I remember the onion being much more relevant sometime in the past. I wonder if its decline is related to it becoming just another mouthpiece for the democrat agenda, or if I'm totally off track.
Babylon Bee feels grounded in a way that the Onion isn't. Practically all of their articles start with an actual piece of news: The CEO of Polymarket was raided, Matt Gaetz was appointed, Cabinet picks were protested, etc.
The Onion relies more on completely-fabricated articles (1, 2, 3) which simply don't have the same impact. The ones that do contain factual content are unbearably blunt at promoting the establishment (or farther left) stance on the issue.
Relatedly, I couldn't find a single Onion article against the Left, while Babylon Bee articles against the Right are a dime a dozen. That type of hardline political stance turns me off, and I suspect it does the same for others.
Botond173
52m ago
One certainly doesn't expect to hear about Buddhist rebel militias in the news, that's for sure.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1hr ago
I have to say that the thought of letting Kamala have her win being the more prudent choice long-term did occur to me.
Well, this entire red-hot and starting to backfire economy is propped up by the laptop class looting federal money to subsidize their lifestyle spending. There's nothing else propping up demand, so if Trump kicks the chair out I suspect we're in for a crash just in time for 2028.
OliveTapenade
1hr ago
Your question is a non-sequitur: why do I have to prove anything more? There is clear irregularity in 2020, either give an innocuous explanation for the counting stopped over a water pipe, or concede.
I don't see why a claim of a burst pipe that turned out to be false is proof of fraud? Why should AppleyOrange need to concede anything? There might be many explanations for concerns about a burst water pipe other than deliberate malfeasance. A single bad actor might submit a false report about a burst pipe. A good faith error might have occurred. There might have been a real but small leak that was exaggerated. There are too many possibilities to reasonably jump from a report of a burst pipe to fraud.
But suppose we grant that there was a suspicious irregularity in 2020 worthy of investigation. It's not proof of fraud, but maybe it's something people should look into. Sure.
I think the point about 2024 holds up?
Let's grant hypothetically that large voter fraud in Georgia in 2020 delivered the state to Biden. Let's also grant that Harris outperformed Biden in 2024. There are two possibilities here - either Harris also committed fraud, or she didn't.
If Harris also committed voter fraud, then we should reasonably expect to find evidence of that fraud. Maybe they did it better, sure, but a large-scale operation like state-wide voter fraud ought to leave some evidence. We might also be inclined to ask why, if Harris' campaign is capable of successfully rigging an election in Georgia so professionally, Trump still won Georgia by a decent margin, and why they apparently failed to rig elections in other states, including much more significant swing states.
If Harris didn't commit any kind of fraud, then we'd seem to have to conclude that her performance in the state in 2024 is not prima facie suspicious. If so, then we have a strange question to ask ourselves - why, after rigging it in 2020, would they not bother to rig it in 2024? Moreover, if the Democrats performed better when they weren't rigging it to when they were... that seems strange? That seems like Dick Dastardly stopping to cheat? If Harris didn't cheat in '24, it seems like it just makes more sense if Biden didn't cheat in '20.
Let's consider the four possibilities here: 1) Biden cheats in 2020, Harris cheats in 2024, 2) Biden cheats in 2020, Harris doesn't cheat in 2024, 3) Biden doesn't cheat in 2020, Harris cheats in 2024, 4) Biden doesn't cheat in 2020, Harris doesn't cheat in 2024. It seems like option four just... makes the most sense of the observed data.
HeimrArnadalr
English Supremacist
1hr ago
There are scammers who are aware of Kitboga, so it's certainly a possibility.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
1hr ago
Really? "Fail to support" transition, or "try to block their kid from accessing the relevant medical treatments"?
Without doubt, the former. There's a high profile case of a sex-trafficked teenager that the authorities refused to release to her grandparents, because they used her birth name, which resulted in her being sex-trafficked again.
This is without going into the question of whether there are any relevant medical treatments to begin with, or if it's just glorified cosmetic surgery/intervention.
DuplexFields
Ask me how the FairTax proposal works. All four Political Compass quadrants should love it.
2hr ago
The Sigh of Haruhi Suzumiya and rereading From the Mixed-Up Files of Mrs. Basil E. Frankweiler for the first time. I was too young to pick up on it the first time, but the pre-incident life experiences of the latter’s protagonist is described from the start in upper middle class terms. It feels like she’d easily become fast friends with Rudy Huxtable from the Cosby Show.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2hr ago
There is written record of the Secretary for Health demanding that the WPATH removes minimum age requirements from their Standards of Care so that the Biden administration can better pursue their goals related to trans issues. WPATH did comply, in violation of their own procedures of how the SOC is supposed to be determined.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2hr ago
If we were talking about media broadly, I'd agree, but I think the broadest category that can be used fairly for the purposes of this conversation is "satirical publications". Is the any cathedral satire that matters at this point?
Washington State literally passed this fucking law last year, please just stop lying to our faces that it's not happening (and also it's good), if only to prove you can notice it doesn't work and try some other tactic.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
2hr ago
Even the trans community has been somewhat bothered by the "pronouns in bio/email" stuff,
So howcome they did absolutely nothing about it for all these years? Why did they participate in dogpiles on anyone who did voice their concern (including the occasional trans person, funnily enough)?
The O. J. Simpson case comes to mind. He was acquitted of murder in a criminal trial, but was successfully sued in civil court. Copying from Wikipedia:
So if actually murdering two people only results in a $64 million fine, how in the hell is Alex Jones liable for $1,1 billion for spreading admittedly-hurtful conspiracy theories? He didn't do direct harm; he just said stupid and hurtful shit on the internet.
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