domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
Lewis2
3hr ago
Libertarians tend to be contrarians who are comfortable with preaching their message from the sidelines while the mainstream ignores them. It is my impression that a smaller but still significant percentage of the other eclectic groups that flocked to Trump this time around are made up of those with a similar mindset. If I’m right about that, they’re probably more likely to jump ship when they don’t get their way than Trump’s other supporters are.
zeke5123a
4hr ago
Dude. This isn’t an ad hominem. You made nothing but an ad hominem in the OP and then I called out that maybe you should show more humility.
As for the Selzer poll, I pointed out that the Selzer poll would require believing there were massive shifts in multiple populations over a short time that wasn’t captured by anyone (indeed her prior poll showed Trump +18 — a 21 point move wasn’t explained by Biden to Harris). That should’ve given you pause. Calling those bad arguments ignores the fact that those arguments actually reflected reality whereas yours did not.
I owned up to the Selzer poll being wrong, specifically about thinking it would be off by less than 10 points. The arguments against it were pretty uniformly medicore, along the lines of "nah, it just feels wrong" or crosstab diving or "unskewing", against a pollster who had a track record of proving her critics wrong over and over (e.g. in 2020, when she was far more pro-Trump than most of the competition, and ended up being right). Obviously it ended up being incorrect, and now Selzer has a lot of egg on her face.
Also, I'm not a fan of ad hominem attacks so this will probably be my last response to you.
SophisticatedHillbilly
4hr ago
Any proper system has to explain the machinist vs sheet-metal-worker divide (around a 30-point difference) and I have yet to see one that does.
hydroacetylene
4hr ago
Well yeah, I didn’t say ‘globally this will be a right wing crusade’. I said ‘in the US restricting minor’s social media will be increasingly associated with republicans’. Other countries might code it differently; I’d expect Japan, Germany, Hungary to make it a center right policy, and most of the rest of the Anglosphere+France to make it a center left thing.
hydroacetylene
4hr ago
Umm, yes. The GOP is most accurately described as a pro-fossil fuels Party which supports the interests of social conservatives(not necessarily socially conservative interests) and tax cuts.
ControlsFreak
4hr ago
I'm missing anything here about budgets and R's "slash[ing them] so much". Will we be getting to that soon?
Spookykou
4hr ago
Is the average lifespan in 1935 one of those situations where its mostly just a higher rate of infant mortality?
Ben___Garrison
Voltaire's Viceroy
4hr ago
Desantis was the one who was quickest to see where the winds were blowing and endorse the guy without reservation.
He only endorsed when it was very clear that Trump was going to trounce him in the primaries. Haley was the only semi-major candidate left in after Iowa. And his endorsement was more like a detente at the time.
By comparison, I still remember when Trump's nickname for Rubio was "Little Marco."
What does this have to do with anything? Ron's nickname was "desanctimonious".
And it is also obvious that replacing a Senator is a much higher-leverage move than replacing a house member, in general.
Not when Trump will likely have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, vs a very narrow majority in the House that's known for being chaotic and unpredictable.
SophisticatedHillbilly
4hr ago
If it set the stage for Trump, then it sure does make sense for Trumpians to support a continuous long-term version of it.
hydroacetylene
4hr ago
I’m not discounting Musk himself doing something big. I just don’t think this will be a durable legacy.
zeke5123a
4hr ago
She is a crank whereas your opinions are perfect and normal. Oh but wait — weren’t you the one defending the Selzter poll and calling other people (like me) partisans hacks despite us clearly stating the facts for our doubts? And yet who was right? Maybe that should cause you to have just a minuscule amount of introspection instead of just criticizing your out group. That is, maybe you get a lot of things wrong.
Blueberry
4hr ago
Her brief stint as a Democrat is a bit odd
She was 20 years a Dem? She was 21 when she was voted into the Hawaii House of Representatives as a Democrat.
hydroacetylene
4hr ago
Uh, how exactly is she a crank? She’s a Hare Krishna who doesn’t hide her ‘member of a very conservative religion’ views on social issues while having some progressive ideas and being opposed to US intervention.
hydroacetylene
4hr ago
No, they’re not, there are upper and upper mid level officials in the Texas and Florida governments who will get drafted instead.
that most people overcome through age and experience
The sheer size of my political outgroup is clear evidence to the contrary. Most of them are over 18, too.
I'd be in favor of there being some kind of basic test that someone can past to 'remove' that disability in a legal sense
Oi, where's your freedom license?
I am too, but the problem is that society won't tolerate it being an actual, legible test (mainly because muh disproportionate impact, but also because there's a lot of ego/conscience-approval involved in the assumption of righteous disenfranchisement by default, much like there is with all the -isms).
This is currently fulfilled by "having enough common sense to lie to the website about his or her date of birth, and intelligent enough not to contradict that lie after the fact". Fake IDs serve a similar purpose, or at least they did back when they were easier to make; half the problem I have with this scheme is that it makes this much harder (they are/were natural escape valves), as in the face of -ism-driven lawmaking the question of who it actually applies to and what they'll be doing instead won't be seriously considered.
HaroldWilson
4hr ago
Seems a bit of a moot point as there is surely no way she gets through the Senate.
Ben___Garrison
Voltaire's Viceroy
4hr ago
She's a crank with similar vibes to RFK Jr. or Ron Paul, although they have very different voting records. The fact this group has ascended now is thanks to the Republicans being dominated by the Dale Gribble voters.
SophisticatedHillbilly
4hr ago
Two arguments here:
1.) Government spending: consider that the massive efficiency issue applies not just to bridges, but to nearly all government spending of any kind. While bridges alone are a small cut, it’s significantly more expensive to spend 10X or 100X for many different things.
2.) The issue goes beyond government spending to include government cost. Cost includes the expenses that are offloaded to the private sector, many of which are executive in nature. Rolling back a wide swath of administrative regulations could massively increase private wealth and save the public fisc indirectly. This also applies to the healthcare spending that makes Medicaid so expensive. That 10X multiplier is there as well (more than in most industries really.) Cut medical regs, increase doctor supply, etc etc.
The administration will have trouble with this politically though, since the second type of cost saving doesn’t show up in a straight “spending in 2022 vs spending in 2026” analysis
Ben___Garrison
Voltaire's Viceroy
4hr ago
They're not bitter ideological enemies, but they are political rivals in the same vein as Sanders vs Warren.
magic9mushroom
If you're going to downvote me, and nobody's already voiced your objection, please reply and tell me
4hr ago
Well, okay then. Sorry for the confusion.
urquan
4hr ago
Unironically the most interesting thing about this dataset is it sorts "Web Developer" into "IT" and not "Engineering." I have no doubt many flame wars could be fought over that one.
And the second most interesting thing is that the most Republican professions work with fossil fuels, and the most Democratic professions work against fossil fuels. Forget about Black Lives Matter, the divide between the left and the right seems to be about Black Gold.
Templexious
4hr ago
I've been reading up more on Tulsi Gabbard. Honestly, she has an incredible and distinguished track record- from being a medic in Iraq, to her Hawaiian heritage.
If she really does get the DNI position in the Trump cabinet, there is strong chance that she will attempt a bid for President immediately after.
This could cause competition for the Thelians hoping for more JD Vance after Trump leaves office. But I'm not here to wargame 2028 campaign hypotheticals when Trump isn't even sworn in yet.
It seems she and her husband converted to hinduism.
My immediate take is that her presence and native pacific islander background means you know she ascended, and worked for the positions she had. Her brief stint as a Democrat is a bit odd, but otherwise she looks like she has a pretty pristine track record that's really hard to shit on.
Her being anti-lgbt, with a track record of policies that would otherwise be fairly progressive, she seems like a standard, good pick for almost any position in ... any president's cabinet?
From reading the wiki page, I'm having a hard time figuring out why anyone would mouth-froth over the idea of her having any position of power.
Dear Mottizens, what is your view on her? Any information I've missed?
Small business (possibly owner or part-owner) vs union shop, I suspect.
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