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jeroboam
1hr ago
Hofstadler's Law of polling mean there is always a shy Tory effect, even when you correct for Hofstadler's Law.
Prediction markets are well-calibrated when there is sufficient liquidity.
A 20% chance is not a 0% chance. It will happen 1 in 5 times. When it does happen, the prediction market is not "wrong".
This is what Nate Silver had to say over and over again in the wake of 2016 when he made a "wrong" prediction by giving Trump only a 30% of winning. Most people simply fail to understand how prediction works.
jeroboam
2hr ago
Oh yeah, I'm with you. And we also can't escape the fact that many swing states have serious flaws in their election security.
A lot can still happen. I would expect a maximally damaging and fake news story to drop against Trump in the next few days. (50% chance). But on the plus side, Biden seems to hate Kamala so some of the levers that the current administration can pull (like sabre-rattling with Iran) won't get pulled.
pigeonburger
2hr ago
My province caps THC at 30%, that is generous for flower but is too low for concentrates to make any kind of sense. Ultimately people consume more of the less potent stuff to compensate, or go find the potent stuff outside of the legal market. That's how it's been for me when I was partaking and letting my tolerance build up. I could always reach the same level with flower than with, say, THC crystals, I'd just have to chain vape for 3 hours to get there (easy with the degenerate setup I had).
stuckinbathroom
2hr ago
See also: “to see the mote in your brother’s eye while ignoring the beam in your own”
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2hr ago
Assuming this is your real sentiment and not just trolling, have you ever been in a team attempting something truly difficult? Not just something that needs lots of structured man-hours and money, but something you don't even know if possible, and other people shy away from?
Leadership really REALLY matters then. It is not the only thing that matters, but you can have every other ingredient aplenty and it will never work without someone truly exceptional leading it.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2hr ago
if you’re the kind of Ghanaian wealthy enough to go through 10+ years of tertiary education in the US
Yes a lot of such cases are already local elites, but not at all. Scholarships can do wonders in this category if you were a bit savvy as a teenager (or your parents were)
pigeonburger
2hr ago
And what does "protect cryptocurrency investments" even mean? Providing a price floor for them? Making them more regulated? How?
There's three interpretations in my head of what that could be, and considering what the Biden admin has been doing and how it's likely to be exactly the same people in charge under Harris, there isn't really any doubt which one it is.
Crypto traders and users want the governments to protect the ability to use and trade cryptocurrency by keeping the knee off the neck of the industry.
The crypto industry wants governments to give clarity as to where it will intervene and where it won't, so that the industry can finally know where and how they will be allowed to operate.
Governments wants to make the cryptomarket as "safe" and regulated as regular finance (and by doing so, kill opportunity in that market for the plebs).
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2hr ago
I have similar experiences with European healthcare. People don't care much about "average life expectancy" type of stats when they judge healthcare quality typically but simply how easy it is for them to get attention when they feel they need it. Also European healthcare is typically heavily drained by old people and tries to salvage costs by gatekeeping young people which doesn't help perceptions either.
Pasha
Defend Kebab
2hr ago
That is correct. The unvoiced assumption of my post was that Taiwan is not self-sufficient and cannot survive without open shipping lanes and so any technology that makes it easy to sink ships is very bad news for it
zoink
2hr ago
So really nothing overt, and certainly not even close to the overt racism of Democrats historically and currently.
Tree
2hr ago
Did you predict the 2022 special military exercise? What were the visible actions that were not part of the historical pattern of exercises-that-were-not-starts-of-war? There wasn't some big propaganda push afaik, and neither was there a withdrawal of the hundreds of billions in economic funds that subsequently got trapped in western banks.
ThenElection
2hr ago
Trump has had two Presidential elections so far. Even with no bias, you'd expect the error to be the same sign 50% of the time.
pbmonster
2hr ago
Are you sure it just doesn't come down to physical size? Huge things are awe-inspiring. Humans put things in relation to their own body. And especially seeing something so large move so quickly and precisely triggers something in us. Maybe its an ancient fear response, a residual from a time where mammals where small and large things where dangerous.
I've worked with very impressive technology, arguably both more complex and a greater net positive for humanity (chip fab and MRI machines). But one produces things much smaller than a human, and the other only slightly larger than a human. So instead I dream about rockets, airships, space stations and aircraft carriers.
Oh, and I also worked with particle accelerators. Also way more awe-inspiring.
VoxelVexillologist
Multidimensional Radical Centrist
2hr ago
I've never managed to try it, but the literature on palm wine suggests that palm sap will ferment to a nontrivial ABV (4% or so) in just a couple of hours sitting out unrefrigerated at what I assume are tropical temperatures.
ThenElection
2hr ago
The perspective of the policy maker would be more "black men are marginalized from traditional banking institutions and turn to alternative ones instead, so we should promise to protect the alternatives." They amount to the same thing, but the added layer of indirection lets you avoid consciously considering the concrete implications that you explicitly list.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
3hr ago
Incest does not typically result in "severe deficiencies" in one generation.
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
3hr ago
The dark and cynical but not quite CapitalRoom level of cynicism is that the pollsters have to keep the polls showing the possibility of a Harris victory to give the Democrats cover when they "find" enough ballots to put her over the top.
ThenElection
3hr ago
https://biblehub.com/matthew/23-24.htm
Semicommon idiom. Jews have religious laws against bug eating, and so they were very fastidious about straining out bugs from drinking water. Jesus was contrasting this focus on very small things while letting a big thing (i.e. a hyperbolic camel) get through.
In this case, corporate money allowed by CU is the gnat, while federal spending is the camel.
Crowstep
3hr ago
I may have misunderstood, but it kinda sound like you think that the Democrat staffers who wrote that press release were thinking 'black men use crypto to hide their drug-dealing money and avoid paying for the children they walked out on, we'd better tell them that they have our support'.
Even in politics, I think you'd struggle to find that kind of jet-black cynicism
ulyssessword
3hr ago
I'm not actually a programmer, and learning how to work with Windows to build a UI would be a long and annoying process relative to delegating it. On the other hand, I had already set up a script for more complex control of the laser, so creating a stripped down version was easy.
The project took me about three hours between writing my part, delegating the other, and testing them both together.
MiddleAgedMan
Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way.
3hr ago
An effective ad would be to simply show pictures of pregnant women at say 3m, 5m, 7m, 9m. That is a simple, visceral set of images that most people will be immediately familiar with and can instinctively compare.
This oral immunotherapy drug seems to work, based on a 100% success rate in an early clinical trial. It's probably some years away from general availability, but it might be something to look forward to.
There's also a desensitization protocol using only beef and beef extract described here. Seems like DIY might be viable.
ThenElection
3hr ago
Some rounding errors are positive, some are negative. So if you add them all together, in the limit the expected mean error is zero, so this program is effectively free!
Could someone point me to good resources to better familiarize myself with the facts around the Israel Palestine conflict?
What are the best arguments on the side of those who are pro- and anti-Israel?
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