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KMC
2hr ago
Counterpoint: legal cannabis has resulted in higher potency products. Highly concentrated cartridges and resins easily available, and higher potency flower as well. Granted, the higher potency flower has been the trend for longer than we've had legal cannabis in this country.
striker
2hr ago
Reminded of the story about … was it Leonardo? … who said that he wrote everything down because once he wrote it down he would remember it and never need the piece of paper again.
(Aware of the irony that I have half remembered a story about memory.)
The_Nybbler
Does not have a yacht
2hr ago
Making alcohol illegal results in more distilled liquors and less lighter stuff, for the same reason illegal opiates results in stronger opiates being preferred.
FiveHourMarathon
Just a Wawa Stan Account
2hr ago
Yes but you can't get it in volume from the local corner store, which was the qualifier I put on it. Nobody drinks 64oz of spontaneously fermented homebrew and beats his wife.
We know this because even in countries with significant illegal alcohol problems, no illicit alcoholics are drinking homemade wine or beer in a problematic way. They're going blind from moonshine or bathtub gin.
ChickenOverlord
2hr ago
It was revealed to me in a dream
Dean
3hr ago
Sure. No disagreement, even. Consider this an assent.
...I'm not sure how else to add 'that is a sound and valid addition' without coming off as sillier than I mean to.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3hr ago
Beer of course is not distilled. Even spontaneously fermented beer can have ABVs above 6% (which is a pretty normal beer abv), so you don't even need special yeast to hit this ABV.
Thank you for demonstrating your continued retreat from your opening positions. I look forward to seeing how much of a motte you retreat to over time.
And no, for others, 17 year olds is not the limits of what one can find regarding Hamas child soldier reports.
This is barely intelligible. If you make a surprising and significant claim, you should provide a source.
And if you wish to claim that Israelis shoot children, and then launch screeds on the jews being uniquely evil, you should provide a source that accuses the Israelis of shooting children, instead of claims that children were shot without an attribution as to by whom.
Which serves as another basis of the non-linking, since the lack of relevant sourcing to support a surprising and significant claim (like 'the Jews are deliberately one-shotting children') has been a reoccuring theme of this thread.
And yes, that was left for you specifically to walk into.
GaBeRockKing
3hr ago
You can, but only if your side has a principled, self-interested commitment to truth as an asymmetric weapon married to a genuine, shared concern for the mutual welfare of its adherents.
So in short, it's impossible for any group larger than Dunbar's number and also impossible for most of the groups smaller than it.
sarker
It isn't happening, and if it is, it's a bad thing
3hr ago
i suspect this advice is for people where 'variety' means that protein needs are exceeded by animal protein alone
I suspect you did not watch even fifteen seconds of the clip I posted, because this is the very first thing discussed.
a lot of plant foods are deficient in lysine, so it can occur so 5 foods in a meal are all deficient.
Unlikely, unless you never eat legumes (see advice above about eating a variety of food groups).
GaBeRockKing
3hr ago
as it makes almost every decision made at least potentially political.
It's darkly hilarious to see this complaint because it's such a horseshoe moment. The rightwing has fully embraced the idea that the person is political-- along with all the annoying drawbacks thereof. It's like a carcinization of politics... every ideology descends inevitably identitarian marxist populism, including the ones that hate all three of those things.
coffee_enjoyer
☕️
3hr ago
The way you write is… interesting to say the least. Is it strategically vague, or a sort of wailing wall of text defense?
We are not speaking about “child soldiers” the legal category, which includes teens. We are specifically talking about below-teens children being used by Hamas. Especially being used in a way that would lead them to being shot approx daily. What I can find from HRW is that Hamas once used a 17yo but that they made commitments to not recruit below 18. That was back in 2004. Something similar was published by Amnesty in 2005.
The reminder of the existence of such reporting isn't just the function any link would provide- it is remind the reader of past reports they've heard of and can easily find again (thus appealing to their own understanding of the conflict), and thus the contrast to the OP's dogmatic dismissal of contrary evidence published over the last decades
While nominally the target doesn't work as well on people not as experienced in the topic, the prompt that they could easily search for it serves a second level of argument, in which if they do look they will find, and their ability to find evidence of child soldiers if they choose to look for it will be contrasted with the OP's dismissal
This is barely intelligible. If you make a surprising and significant claim, you should provide a source. That’s a combo of obligation, politeness, and efficiency. If Hamas is equipping 12yo with IEDS then obviously it’s not a big deal if they are shot by Israeli soldiers. This does not appear to be the case.
mrvanillasky
3hr ago
Does anyone else feel weirded out by their past? I recently opened my older Instagram account and all the people that I was super close with at one point just drifted apart, I spoke with this girl who once told me how she wanted kids with adhd, her way of flirting with me and I lectured her for 20 minutes about why that is bad, she does not remember anything about me, hell my high school best friend who I would talk to for hours after we would get back home is now this software dev in the US who by the looks of it still sucks at dating.
All the guys I hung out with morphed into generic stereotypes in many ways, happy but just very bland. All the girls I wanted to talk to at the time just to feel good about myself dont seem that attractive anymore.
The worst experience was opening up my half a decade old accounts feed and scrolling through it super fast and getting a feeling of dissociation from it. Like are these photos even real, does anyone even care, why bother. I now remember why I nuked it in the first place. Also I am still sad but 19 year old me would not have seen 24 year old me as a failure, I have not done as much as I should have but still pretty nuts to see how different the world I frankly I was.
blooblyblobl
Battery-powered!
3hr ago
There's a speculative Twitter thread suggesting Polymarket is being distorted by a single huge better: https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1846597997507092901
TheFooder
3hr ago
The issue isn't about how the bet resolves, speculation is about scalping price movements on the margins.
If a true-beliver wants to move the markets, they can, by buying a bunch of shares at a certain price (or prices). I one is certain Trump will win and one wants to make it look like there's some support, buying contracts at $0.55 (or thereabouts) is pretty rational because if he wins the investor more-or-less doubles their money.
For me, a person who believes the actual market is 50/50 and $0.50 is the right price for both contracts I can take advantage of these swings to scalp a few bucks with limit orders. Over time, I expect the prices to settle back toward the 'real price', which they have, so I just have to be patient and I can win a few bucks here and there based on volatility. The nice thing about markets (at least well designed and functional ones) is that they will always drift back to the correct price even if they fluctuate in strange ways.
My experience with these markets is that you have people with positions, true-believers and you have speculators. The speculators love to see market moves because they can scalp profits. The true-believers are taking out a bet.
They were all wrong, but Nate was less wrong ,so that makes him the winner in this regard. His model was more accurate.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
3hr ago
and streamline the legal and narrative stuff, hopefully significantly
I for one would also be interested in your views on the legal and regulatory stuff. But then "here is what the regulations say, here is how they're interpreted, this is what the situation on the ground actually looks like, and here are the specific problem areas where the regulatory incentives result in stupid outcomes" is catnip to me.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3hr ago
spreads would have nerfed some of those gains too
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3hr ago
One-off events are intractable. Kelly does not work on them.
TheFooder
3hr ago
I can't speak to Polymarket, but I was watching Predictit pretty closely. I saw a surge in market activity about a week ago with Trump moving from $0.49 to $0.56 and Harris dropping from $0.55 to as low as $0.48. I predicted this was a pump-and-dump and that the prices would inevitably settle back to $0.50-ish (there's not really enough volume to to totally wipe the pump, IMO). I missed the $0.48 shares for Harris, but she's back up to $0.51 and Trump is back down to $0.53. Had I taken the Trump short and gotten in at the Harris Lows I could have made $6 for every $100. Not huge, but basically proves my point that these market moves are opportunities for scalping and the race is strictly 50/50...at least for now.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3hr ago
Swing states are so lumpy it's hard to call heads or tails on this.
ThenElection
3hr ago
There's not a ton of money to be made if you believe the odds are 50/50. Prediction markets give Trump 60/40 odds, while Nate's model gives 50/50 odds. If your bankroll is $1M, then it's only rational to bet 167k, for an expected value of 40k. Not nothing, but not a ton of money either.
That also ignores other costs, like counterparty risk. Nate also has to deal with reputational risk: people might value his published models less if they thought he was making bets on markets that were influenced by his models. Since that's his main source of actual income, a bet would be substantially negative EV for him.
It's all speculation. Unless you have insider info or some way to arb it, there is nothing rational about it.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
3hr ago
Meanwhile, I'm just trying to prepare myself for how much worse things are going to get under the inevitable eight years of Harris.
Political division will increase, as will the intensification of the news cycle, but stocks and the economy should do fine. The wealth tax she floated during early campaigning, predictably, she has discarded in favor of middle-class tax cuts. I don't think it will be as bad as feared in regard to the economy. Also, 'peak woke' was under Biden, whereas wokeness got much worse under Trump. Elon Musk is single handedly doing more to fight wokeness than even any politician now.
Not just an NFL B-league, but the crappiest form of NFL B-league. I'd kill for a true NFL B-league compared to the way this is going to look. No draft, no salary cap, players able to leave whenever they feel like it as soon as another team offers more money. I know I said I didn't want to get into it, but I'll probably make a post next week about why I think the sport is going to reach a breaking point some time within the next decade or so. Suffice it to say that, in addition to all the antitrust stuff that isn't going to go away, I think the networks have overextended themselves a bit with the size of these Power 2 deals. There's only so much money to go around, and God forbid if we enter into a recession, in which case (as my friends in video production always point out) advertising is the first thing to get cut. Even without a recession, comparable future deals just might not be that profitable, especially considering that the SEC has historically taken a lower payout than the Big 10 despite having larger market share. There's nothing I'd like to see more than Florida State negotiate a settlement that's still really expensive, go to the Big 10 but be limited partners for the duration of the existing deal (as are oregon and Washington, who only make about half of what the ACC teams get), only to find that the next deal isn't as lucrative as they had anticipated, which wouldn't be a problem except that they're already in hock to the private equity firm that financed the exit fee.
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