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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
eating is so subconscious


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
i guess this is how some people also feel around alcohol


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
the SS was written a long time ago when a HS degree was good enough. now you need college


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Up to a point. I recall stuffing myself with food, at least 4-5kcalories/day for 15yrs and my weight never got above 190 even though  i was sedentary (all day on computer). That was three large meals, lots of snacks, and lots of soda. I didn't need willpower because my body decided to not store enough fat for my weight climb any higher.  It's not a personal failing if for some people this threshold where surplus leads to fat storage is set too low or unreasonably low.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The metabolism slowdown is the major problem. Some people see such a huge slowdown despite still being fat and cutting calories to low levels. those people  are screwed . you can only cut so much


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


It is disproved on the grounds that humans are not machines, they are in fact living animals, and hunger no more obeys our will than thirst or sleep. If I ask you to voluntarily keep yourself at starvation level for an extended period of time, and offer a moderate monetary reward, you will break after a few weeks when you smell a slice of pizza or remember cookies exist. If hunger were subordinate to our will, we wouldn’t have instances of cannibalism caused by intense hunger despite the preferences of the hungry party or the threat of eternal damnation. And when you remember that modern life already requires willpower and cognitive expenditure, it’s no more surprising that the obese cave to hunger than that a thirsty person drinks sewage.




The success of GLP-1 drugs shows how medicine is more effective than lifestyle modification.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
CO is the more important one . two people can be identical yet have TDEEs that vary by over a thousand calories despite boing being nearly equally active . that is the power of CO


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
"you're poor because you don't earn enough" A lot of dieting advice is similarly circular or unhelpful.  Thankfully we now have GLP-1 drugs, which seem to work for many people


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Like a 3% increased likelihood of active brown adipose tissue, which might increase total energy expenditure of the bodies resting metabolism of up to 5%.




Over a long period, this can have an cumulative effect. A small daily surplus can lead to obesity after a decade. It may also mean a lower set point, in which eating a lot food results in much less weight gain than predicted or expected according to regression estimates and physical activity. Overfeeding studies show enormous individual variability as to what percentage of surplus calories are stored as fat or burned off.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 14, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
As others pointed out, CICO cannot be debunked in so far that thermodynamics is immutably true. It's just different factors can contribute to these variables on either side.




How many other “willpower problems” have less to do with willpower and more to do with 2nd and 3rd order effects which are hidden from us, or which compound invisibly? There are probably many more for obesity alone.




agree. Too many  people, including even on the 'HBD side', downplay the role of metabolism in regard to obesity. Consider that having a faster metabolism (or more specifically, a less efficient metabolism) means being able to eat more food without becoming obese, hence less willpower is required.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I'm just so tired with everyone's vapid obsession with tariffs. To the point where it feels like a psyop.




When the market posts the biggest decline since Covid or 2008, of course people are going to care . It was the market crash that got people talking about it. And the fact the tariffs were so much more onerous compared to past tariffs.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for April 4, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Ah, see, we were in the land of memes, not the finer points of research. This is a fine point, indeed, and most people should probably mostly ignore it.




I literally cited someone's research


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
check again .


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
posting research is a far cry from developing a product.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
What a huge rally. I am wishing I had been more aggressive. I bought on the dip on Monday. FNGA , which is a 3x tech etf, but I should have bought some 0-days when the story broke.


This is why you always got to keep some powder on the sidelines. You can do nothing for a year and then the opportunity arises 100x your money.


This shows the importance of not being whipsawed when investing. Stick with the plan if you're DCA (in which you generally want declines if you're young).


I don't think this will be resolved anytime soon, but what the market cares about is that things do not get worse.


Apparently China only accounts for 12 percent of imports/exports:




In 2024, US exports to China and imports from China accounted for 7.0 percent and 13.8 percent of the US total exports and imports for the year respectively




http://english.scio.gov.cn/whitepapers/2025-04/09/content_117814362_3.html#:~:text=China%20is%20the%20US's%20third,imports%20for%20the%20year%20respectively.


So with the 90 day pause on other countries, the actual inflation tally as reflected by CPI will be much less than originally feared and limited to only a handful of goods.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
zoom out to all time. an even bigger spike occurred in 2020 during Covid . there is no psyop


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I disagree  here. Without protecting of patents and other IP, companies are not going  to invest in creating new technologies.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for April 4, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
yeah cardio just does not burn much fat. Runners and cyclists  are thin because they do not eat much to begin with, not that running induces much weight loss. the sort of person with the discipline to take up running as a habit probably has the discipline to eat less.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for April 4, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Herman Pontzer has shown that the body adapts by burning fewer calories  at rest, so your total CO is constrained. This is assuming you don't overeat due to hunger  after working out. This goes to show why weight loss is so hard. The only viable option is to eat less, which is uncomfortable and unsustainable for most people.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
They can stipulate the terms of the loan in such a way as to ensure and profit and mitigate  the risk of the volatility with hedging instruments. I think he could probably get $100 billion by pledging 300% collateral, which is his whole net worth.




Here, you would have Musk trying to unload $100B of a stock with a P/E over 100, balanced by ... which bank do you think wants that?




Elon has already successful borrowed tens of billions to Fund X/Twitter buyout. not $100 billion worth, but there was a counterparty.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Some might be concerned that these sorts of predictions are a bit vague. What will they actually do? What will it look like? How could we watch events unfold and categorize what is happening? Of course, as the old joke says, fascism comes with smiley faces and McDonald's, so it's unlikely that their activities will be immediately apparent on just a surface glance. Thus, I will turn to the impetus for this post and submit that one need look no further than current events.




The PMC wants automation, typically of lower-skilled work.


Pundits have been predicting a white-collar jobs collapse for years, well before AI. In the past, it was due to computers and robots. Now it's AI.  What they fail to grasp is that white-collar workers have transferable  skills or attributes  beyond the actual job description, such as high higher IQ. This means better adaptability to changing economic conditions. A coder can learn law ,for example; or a lawyer learn code. The PMC will , if anything , be protected from automation and other change, not hurt. less skilled workers are more vulnerable because they cannot adapt as well.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
where you getting this from? i have not seen headlines indicating such


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
official sources say $892 billion https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/hegseth-trump-1-trillion-defense-budget-00007147


million would not make sense


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of April 7, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's like civil forfeiture. The govt. becomes the new owner even though nothing is sold.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for April 4, 2025
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The human body is really really efficient. It is just hard to burn a lot of calories doing it. And there are quite a bit of people that do really hard work - construction worker for example - and you will see quite a bit of them that are chunky. And it is really easy to compensate for the calories burned with a couple of spoonfulls of something.




this times 100x. It's not like laborers are overwhelmingly thin compared to office workers. Bill Gates was wire-thin in his 20-30s despite his job literally  entailing sitting at a computer all day.  Gyms are full of people  who are overweight and never lose much. The body adapts  by slowing metabolism (CO) or increasing hunger (CI).