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greyenlightenment

investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

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joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC

blog https://greyenlightenment.com/

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greyenlightenment


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 0 users  

					joined 2022 September 04 18:26:17 UTC
				


				
					

					
blog https://greyenlightenment.com/



				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Big cars are a bigger threat to cities than self-driving cars. The heavy weight of these huge SUVs and trucks causes more wear and tear on roads, higher hood means more pedestrian accidents, longer length means fewer parking spaces and more congestion, bigger engine means more noise and pollution, etc. So many externalities. If everyone is driving cars that are 50% bigger it means it's like 1 extra car for for every 2 people.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It was more than just being 6-12 months older. if anything the difference was most pronounced in 10-12th grade when the relative difference would have been smallest due to redshirting


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Aubrey de Grey




It didn't help that he got  MeToo'd. That tends to end careers pretty fast.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Comparing it to spy actually handicaps it in favor of bitcoin. A more appropriate comparison controlling for volatility would be something like 2-3x SPY, like UPRO, which beats Bitcoin by a bigger margin. Controlling for volatility, Bitcoin has , as of Today, slightly greater returns and vastly more volatility which makes it worse .


But so far, yes, you're right that Bitcoin as of now is the better performing asset nominally speaking.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Big Yud recently posted an interesting thought, The Poverty Equilibrium. The most brutal possible summary is: despite an insane amount of technological progress over the last centuries, some people still toil all day in miserable jobs to provide for some urgent need and it's not clear why this is happening and therefore it's not clear that another 100x increase in utility will make it any different.




For those who can afford to retire but choose to work, work is about social class, about control of one's time, about creating boundaries.


As for those who need to work to live, some jobs are impervious to automation or it's cheaper to hire workers than automate such jobs. Or that work provides more choices and higher standard of living than the alternative of post-scarcity  subsistence living. Some peopel want nice thing like trucks and homes instead of living in government-subsidized cube farms.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


But that doesn't mean that, in aggregate they will increase lifespan by 0.2*60 = 12 years. In fact, it might be worse. They might interact with each other in negative ways.




It's certainly not additive.


For someone who is so smart it's sad how he fell off into the realm of health nonsense


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
With Mr Kurzweil  the  next big breakthrough is always in 10-30 years. LLMs and chat GPT are breakthroughs, but probably not what he and others like him have in mind of something that radically alters existence itself.




The guy is not doing well, judging by his appearance. Joe Rogan asked him his age and I was expecting to hear an answer that started with a 9 and was shocked when he said he was in his seventies. Judging by videos from just a few years ago, he has started to age really fast. His body was slumped over and he talked very slowly. The interview was painful to listen to. He's taking something like 60 pills a day to stay young and it doesn't seem to be helping.




Yeah and this is with plastic surgery and hair transplants , which it's evident compared to older pictures


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Frankly speaking, I think it's a damning indictment of general rationality that we don't devote an appreciable fraction of GDP to solving it. If I was a billionaire, especially one staring death in the face, I'm not sure how much good my money would do me if I wasn't around to spend it. What good is anything if you're dead?




This is what many billionaires are doing. Almost every tech mogul  is investing in some sort of life extension tech or start-up. So far nothing has panned out, but of course, success is  something measured in decades, so it's possibly soon to tell


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The other current respectable Anti-aging Guru Dr. David Sinclair, also looks younger than his actual age (55).






Which lends credence to the claim that his interventions improve SOMETHING.




youthfulness is along a spectrum so some people will look young  by virtue of just falling along the favorable end of the curve of the distribution ,not because of a specific health protocol.


I think there is possibly an inverse correlation between IQ and youthfulness ,with less intelligent people looking younger for their age and smarter people tending to age faster even if they may also live longer (e.g. Tom Cruise vs James Woods). I observed this a lot in school, in which the smartest students tended to also look the oldest and were also taller.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Much of the progress is in making people who are 40-60 years old live to 80, or making 70-year-olds feel like 50-year-olds, but not much about making people who are 80 live to 100+, as the rate of decline/decay is too rapid. There seems to be a rapid shutdown mode where the body calls it quits and nothing can reverse this.




Bryan Johnson has become famous for his anti-aging "Blueprint" that includes hundreds of daily supplements and other quirky behaviour such as not eating after 11:30am. Johnson insists that, in his mid-40s, he has the mind and body of a man in his 20s. But looking at pictures, it's obvious that this isn't true. Rather than looking like a young man, he looks like an uncanny middle-aged man.




Agree I am not convinced either.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
If the audience is composed of midwits does it matter, and also, many  people really do unironically like her--just not enough to win an election. No one is expecting her to lecture about physics.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Nick did tweet it multiple times, and it's a type of trolling where it's hard to know if it's trolling or not, because it's credibly something he could mean. It could mean a return to the patriarchy. Or as mentioned above a sexual joke. Or just for lolz. All this does is play into the hand of the opposing side's worst possible framing, yet for memetic value it wins.


This is why Nick is so smart. He waited until after the election, knowing nothing could be done; making one's own team look bad with sexism is not a concern anymore. He was originally skeptical of Trump and hated Vance, so he's hedging his bets, and then after Trump wins, instead of looking dumb or a traitor by not voting for him, he one-ups everyone else by being MORE extreme so his supporters forget that he didn't vote for Trump. had Trump lost he could have just blamed  Trump being a Zionist shill. So both bases covered.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Stock market hits record high




It's easy to hit a record high when the last prior high was the day of the election. I believe though that Trump will make the world safer by acting as a deterrent by being perceived as less of a pushover compared to the Democrats. Trump introduces uncertainty into the diplomatic calculus. With Harris you know what you will get; less so with Trump.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Celeb endorsements also are about building a coalition of supporters. Winning is secondary. Even if young people are unreliable voters or cannot vote, they still will grow up and enter society and affect it in many ways.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's like saying that word processor spreadsheets can replace doing it by hand. It does not solve the spreadsheet problem, only makes it more efficient. Maybe the problem is me, but I am not seeing a big difference. I think the closest thing to truly transformational technology with direct, tangible real-world applications is printed buildings ( those cheap amazon.com homes that can be erected quickly), but this is not directly AI.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The big problem with medicine has always been testing. Human trials will always be expensive and time consuming


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The TSLA call options so expensive though. I like the 2x leveraged TSLA ETF instead. if TSLA doubles the ETF in theory will gain 3.5-4x, maybe offset decay by selling a long-dated ATM put + call


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
She is a caricature of everything the right attributes to the left. But we're talking an extremely shallow pool of choices.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It's winning by losing. among the biggest recipients of those trump tax cuts will be wealthy liberal elites and woke businesses anyway.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This is better than lizzo, beyonce,


I don't think mr. beast is a democrat through and would refuse


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
but who? it becomes evident, when you look at it,  the dems have such poor choices. They put all their eggs in the Hillary/Biden baskets . The GOP can always find populist Trump wannabes of the same sort of mold.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
lol lizzo . even the  marketplace agrees she is overrated


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
She will do fine. i can see a remunerative career in the cards in the  private sector. these people always fail forward


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Contra Scott's too much money in dark almonds piece, I think the reason that political campaign donations are relatively low is that it's really hard to buy an election. Bloomberg tried to back in 2020 and his campaign went nowhere. Money does matter, but the candidate matters a lot more. $1 to Trump makes a bigger difference than $3 to Harris. And Trump appearing on Rogan might have been worth $100 million, but he didn't have to pay a cent.




yeah. Hype is overrated, as is money in politics. Look at all the hype over bitcoin over the past 3-4 years yet the price has hardly done anything; meanwhile unsexy SPY/voo crushed it. VC/crypto bros showered $ on Trump for his support; if i had to wager, they will see  big fat zero for their efforts. It's hard enough to pull the levers of power by the very people who are are in power...good luck doing it indirectly. Politics in the US is influenced by seniority and connections, which is how such underwhelming choice as Harris got so far anyway. She had paid her dues.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
AI is still limited to text boxes and text manipulation or content generation; it has failed to live up the hype otherwise, like life extension, replacing workers, or treating disease, imho. The point of diminishing returns has been reached. it will take a whole new paradigm for AI to make the next leap. As far as transforming writing papers for college students, yeah, it has totally crushed that, and even then teachers are wising up. [If AI is able  to produce a fiction  novel that is a best-seller and or critically acclaimed either with text prompts or feeding it samples of other novels, I will be sold]