faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
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User ID: 884
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
8hr ago
In 3 months the Trump admin has
- Started a trade war with china
- Made a deal with El Salvador to ship some of our illegal immigrants there
- Killed off most of our foreign aid
- Significantly altered US international relations
- Ended disparate impact policies (I bet this one sticks)
What were your actual expectations for the first 3 months of Trump II?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
8hr ago
I know they will lie about this and claim a massive drop in traffic regardless of what actually happens.
Do you think the NJ port authority is falsifying the EZPass data they're sharing here?
The drop doesn't look particularly massive to me at least looking at the NY/NJ MTA ezpass data for January for traffic through Lincoln and Holland tunnels. 2025 is about 7% lower 2024. Adjusting for the number of non-winter-break weekdays in Jan 2024 vs Jan 2025, I'd estimate that the actual drop in traffic is more like 10%. Still, not exactly a huge effect on traffic volume - but that 10% lower traffic volume leads to quite a bit more than a 10% drop in the time vehicles spend on Manhattan roads.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2648357 | 2683438 | 2186860 | 2362400 | 2749451 | 2656913 | 2478034 |
| Feb | 2485293 | 2614770 | 1877493 | 2515702 | 2569476 | 2623079 | - |
| Mar | 2851678 | 1935113 | 2511243 | 2925572 | 2961158 | 2920608 | - |
| Apr | 2867670 | 922540 | 2573587 | 2892476 | 2878531 | 2872065 | - |
| May | 2990927 | 1415702 | 2747759 | 2994639 | 3101283 | 3047470 | - |
| Jun | 2914516 | 1809480 | 2828441 | 2981580 | 2993508 | 2963715 | - |
| Jul | 2867189 | 2145267 | 2839383 | 2975258 | 2957649 | 2932756 | - |
| Aug | 2966144 | 2355392 | 2852615 | 3024087 | 3029605 | 3012971 | - |
| Sep | 2890161 | 2324652 | 2811747 | 2930777 | 2898138 | 2954364 | - |
| Oct | 2955842 | 2454414 | 2997052 | 2986886 | 2998529 | 3056480 | - |
| Nov | 2835622 | 2221774 | 2871725 | 2867448 | 2872524 | 2851352 | - |
| Dec | 2895318 | 2239231 | 2825344 | 2940054 | 2937512 | 2943457 | - |
Side note: the ability to embed graphs would be super nice.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
10hr ago
Is your claim that there haven't been substantial changes since Trump took office?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
10hr ago
Well that sets up some fucked incentives for illegal immigrants to skip bail. Not the judge's job to try to fix that though.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1d ago
It describes commuters from some of those places (specifically those with park-and-rides) into Manhattan fairly well.
Of course now park-and-rides are having capacity issues, but that is a problem we can deal with. We're American. Building more parking lots is in our blood.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
1d ago
"Large numbers of people can easily get themselves to an entrance to the transit network and have destinations close to one of the exits of the transit network" describes New York pretty well.
Sure, I buy that the school board just rubber-stamped this book without much thought. That part is not surprising to me. The bit that's surprising to me is that they decided to double down, and then double down again, and continue until they're now showing up in front of the supreme court. This case (edit apr 24: as described in the top-level comment) is a giant gift to social conservatives, at a minimum in the court of public opinion and I expect also in the court of law. So I wonder if the school board just doesn't realize that, of if they do realize that and just don't care - I just have a burning curiosity as to what their thought process was when they decided to escalate to this level.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
2d ago
If you're grilling at least a couple times a month, the price of the grill ends up being negligible compared to the price of the stuff you're cooking on it. My bottom-of-the-barrel gas grill from home-depot has lasted 5 years so far and still works great and looks like new, and I find that the fine-grained temperature control I get with a gas grill is helpful when I want to cook a bunch of stuff and have it all finish on the grill at the same time.
Yeah. I remember there was a big thing a few years back about whether or not leather should be welcome at pride, because pride has become a family thing for some people and there are kids there now. But that's a matter of "should leather be pushed out of a space because kids are entering the space".
But bringing leather into a space that is specifically for young kids is beyond the pale. Enough so that I would expect that even the majority of the queer-and-proud population would be against it.
WTF was the school board even thinking here?
Edit: or am I just being gullible, and the books the school board pushed didn't have leather except in the literal sense that one of the characters in one of the books wore a leather jacket?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
3d ago
For verbal I think it might be "I used to play a lot of Scrabble which trivialized the anagram task". I'd like to say my scores on the other tasks seem accurate except that for things like mental rotation I definitely struggle in real-world contexts (e.g. getting all the vector math right in a ray tracer) and yet I (and everyone else here who posted a score on that section) got a perfect score.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
4d ago
According to this very reliable test which leads with
WARNING: Every on-line IQ test is bad While a lot of working has been put into making sure this has good measurement properties, it is not a replacement for a real IQ test. Not on-line test is. A main reason is that no one in the on-line context has the attention span for a reliable assessment.
I get
Full Scale IQ: 153.
Memory IQ: 145 (VM: 81 / 85, EM: 23 / 26)
Verbal IQ: 154 (V: 31 / 34, A: 26 / 27)
Spatial IQ 141 (MR: 17 / 17, CP: 14 / 18)
Apparently I'm a wordcel.
I don't find these results particularly plausible - SAT and GRE scores give me an estimate almost 1 sigma lower, and I'm more inclined to trust those. Still, this felt more like an intelligence test than Raven's Progressive Bitwise Operator Familiarity Test.
The center point one was interesting, and I struggled to find a physical analogue for the question (minimizing the sum of euclidean distances, which is not the same as finding the average point or the same as attaching a spring from a mass to each point and minimizing tension). Which I suppose reinforces my wordceldom.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
4d ago
It doesn't feel as smart as o1 but it has access to tools and non-zero training on how to use those tools, and I find the latter matters more than the former for most things I do.
Mind that those numbers are over 2 years or half the term. Unless you're saying there were 6M+ distinct people who immigrated illegally during Biden's term?
Edit: also, for the claim that over half of all illegal immigrants came here in the last 5 years to hold up, we'd have to say that the census under Biden was underestimating in a way that previous censuses didn't. In the absence of better data, I'm inclined to trust the census to at least get the relative proportions correct.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
I live in California, I interact with people who are not here legally on a quite regular basis. Thinking about e.g. the people I know who have a new partner/housemate, or got a new nanny/gardener, and then filtering down to those that are not here legally, they're mostly people who have been here for a while. Substantial selection effects, obviously.
But also census data says, of foreign-born non-citizens, the distribution of dates of entry as of 2023 was
Entered 2010 or later: 12.8M (56%)
Entered 2000 to 2009: 4.9M (21%)
Entered 1990 to 1999: 3.0M (13%)
Entered before 1990: 2.1M (9%)
Total: 22.9M
As of 2021 the same data was
Entered 2010 or later: 10.2M (48%)
Entered 2000 to 2009: 5.3M 24.79%
Entered 1990 to 1999: 3.3M 15.66%
Entered before 1990: 2.4M 11.32%
Total 21.2M
So that's an increase of 1.7M non-citizen immigrants in the 2 year period from 2021 to 2023, with an increase of 2.6M who entered after 2010 (and a decrease of ~900k non-citizens who entered before 2010 over the same time period, who left/died/gained citizenship). And keep in mind that in a normal year 700k to 1M green cards are issued. So I don't see space for half of illegal immigrants to have come over later than 2020.
Where are you getting your data, aside from vibes?
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
I've always wanted to land a plane.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
The number of people who are estimated to have come in during the last 4 years is comparable to the total prior illegal population.
I expect this statistic double-counts people, because I find it quite doubtful that the median length of time that people have been living here illegally is 4 years or less (which it would have to be, if more than half of the people who are currently living here illegally came in the last 4 years).
I don't dispute that Biden's immigration policy was bad BTW. I specifically dispute the claim that before Trump I illegal immigration was not an emergency, but between the end of Trump I and the start of Trump II, it became such an emergency that it now requires resolution within months, and so we must set aside rule of law and due process concerns.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
The relevant sample size is "at least one of 278", not "at most one of 100,000". But honestly if it was "we fucked up on this one of 278, but we're making a good faith effort to fix our fuck up" I think that would be fine. It's the "we fucked up, we admit we fucked up, we totally could fix it, but we won't and you can't make us" that is getting people up in arms.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
As I recall the Anwar Alaki case actually got quite a lot of airtime, at least in the circles I inhabit.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
Huge relative to the number of illegal immigrants already in the country? I will repeat the question I asked Dean:
If you were to go to a home depot parking lot at 7 am and talk to the workers there, what do you think the median time the undocumented subset of workers have been in the country would be? I predict 8 ± 3 years.
Do you predict otherwise? If not, that means that most illegal residents of the US are not recent arrivals.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
If you were to go to a home depot parking lot at 7 am and talk to the workers there, what do you think the median time the undocumented subset of workers have been in the country would be? I predict 8 ± 3 years.
Do you predict otherwise? If not, that means that most illegal residents of the US are not recent arrivals.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
7d ago
If the government managed to bring him back, sticks him before an immigration judge who says "Your asylum claims are no longer valid due to changed facts on the ground, assuming they ever were, it's fine to execute the deportation order to El Salvador", then is everyone who is upset about this going to nod sagaciously and be satisfied that due process was followed?
Yep, I'd be pretty satisfied by this outcome. My objection to this deportation is pretty much the same as (and milder than) the objection I have to, as @Dean pointed out above, the intentional killing of American citizens without a trial.
If they get him out of El Salvador and dump him six feet across the border in Honduras, does that fix everything?
Maybe not anymore but I don't think this would have blown up like it did if the place he was shipped to wasn't somewhere we were specifically prohibited from sending him.
How much due process in general needs to be given to each of the 10-30 million illegal immigrants?
I mean you're talking about 1 in 30 people living within the US, who came here over the course of decades. It's not reasonable to expect for them to all be deported over the course of months. The number of illegal immigrants in the US has stayed pretty constant over the past couple decades, so I expect that just enforcing existing laws and executing existing processes will be enough to reduce the number of people living here without legal status. And I don’t see any particular reason this has become an emergency that needs to be resolved this year, and historically the executive granting itself emergency powers to deal with an ongoing slow-burning problem has not gone well.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
8d ago
My portfolio is only down a couple percent since Trump took office. "Stonks down" is not a substantial reason for me to be bearish on Trump. But prior to Trump taking office I held a sliver of hope that Trump actually meant what he said about making America great and making government efficient and effective, and then his actions so far have just been tearing down the few institutions and policies that still were contributing to making America great one after another. Mostly my increased bearishness is just that sliver of hope being extinguished.
faul_sname
Fuck around once, find out once. Do it again, now it's science.
8d ago
It's trivial to identify examples of freedom that are not better the more people are free to exercise them.
Are there some specific freedoms do you think that you currently have but wish you didn't have? Alternatively, are there some freedoms you have and exercise, but wish you lived in a society where you and everyone else could not exercise that freedom?
I would want to have some concreteness on exactly what we're betting on here (e.g. obviously the EO didn't make Griggs completely irrelevant forever, obviously the strong form of affirmative action in college admissions was already on its way out).
But yeah if we can operationalize this and still disagree on expected outcomes vs just disagreeing on what it concretely means for disparate impact policies to be neutered I am up for a charity bet.
Dollar amount of disparate impact settlements in the first 4 years of next dem admin, inflation adjusted to 2018 dollars? Though that is a super noisy signal.
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