domain:arjunpanickssery.substack.com
A Twitter exchange is in fact a form of contract -- so whether the guy sent Nate a piece of paper saying "I will pay Nate Silver 100K if Florida goes less than R +8, otherwise he will pay me", I think the terms of the bet were pretty clear.
...?
If the Twitter exchange is in fact a form of contract, then so is the stipulation of said Twitter exchange for the requisite next step- which includes Nate's condition that the other person send a formal contract via lawyer. If the guy sends a piece of paper saying what you say, it would be failing to meet the conditions of the terms of the Twitter-contract.
anon_
2hr ago
"My model produces unhelpful outputs because it has bad inputs" is still only an excuse at the end of the day.
It's not a matter of the model having bad inputs. The model had all the publicly available inputs.
Why doesn't he have six figures to spend on his own poll and make his model better? Do none of his rich friends trust him enough to invest in him?
Anyone that would pay for that would want to keep the results private in order to better leverage them in some fashion. Otherwise why are they paying for better polling just to give it away to everyone? What return do they have to reap out of investing in a better prediction? The intrinsic value of better public polling?
I'd also comment that even polymarket was 50/50 for a while and then 60/40 in the days before the election.
Quantumfreakonomics
2hr ago
The stock market and bitcoin are in fact at all-time highs. To be fair, they were already close to all-time highs before the election, but there was a large spike immediately after the election that can only be attributed to Trump. (The popular cope is that the markets were reacting to a decisive result, not nessesarily to Trump himself. This is cope.)
But no one accused him of dishonesty.
...er, yes, there has been. That is one of the implications of the phrase 'weasel out of a bet,' which has been invoked in this Nate Silver context*. In forum and elsewhere, the Nate Silver's bet post is being used to charge Nate Silver of dishonest for not following through with his offer for a bet.
*Though not by Ranger specifically.
Nate never said "I didn't get any contract", that's my entire point!
Nor, to my knowledge, has Nate ever said he did get any contract. Hence you do not have a point- you have an absence of information.
Hence why I am asking for some support that he received the contract, as opposed to working from a position of assuming he did.
It's his opponent that exposed himself to an accusation of dishonesty if and only if he didn't send the contract.
Incorrect. Nate's opponent would only expose himself to an accusation of dishonest if and only if he claimed to send the contract but didn't.
However, if Nate's opponent has not made a claim, he would not be dishonest regardless of whether he sent a claim or not.
Unless I misread something earlier, at this point and in this thread, no evidence has been provided that Nate's opponent has claimed to have sent a contract. IF Nate's opponent has made a claim, THEN that claim could be looked at for evidence of credibility- for example, if the claim was made before the election (when results were still uncertain) that would be more credible than the same words made after the election (when the results are now hindsight)- but no consideration can be made absent of existence, and without existence of a claim from Nate's opponent then Nate's opponent cannot be dishonest about said claim.
This, and the fact that you thought it's his reputation as a better that's at stake, makes me think you're not really getting the logic behind my reasoning, but I don't know how to explain it any better.
No, I get your logic behind your reasoning, I just think it's a very poor counter to a request for information, and does not warrant accepting an assumption that is required for various arguments to be valid.
urquan
2hr ago
I agree with this.
Even relatively feminine men will absolutely roast each other in male-only spaces. Playful teasing, joking boundary-pushing, and obviously your momma jokes are everywhere, when you get men together in a space that doesn't include women.
This is why Trump's "it was just locker room talk" defense for the pussy tape in 2016 seemed to work for him: that kind of horny bravado is just what men get up to with each other.
But when women come into the space, everything changes. Women very much seem to hate the idea that men alter their behavior when they come around. But they do. And the reason why men chill out when women come in isn't because they are ashamed of their behavior, or are trying to hide something. It's a mark of respect: they acknowledge that women aren't into it and find it discomfiting, and respect this preference by choosing not to engage in it around them. It's sort of like how I might use profanity while talking to my friends, but would never do so when visiting my mom.
I'm a big defender of male-only spaces and organizations, because we very much need for men to have an outlet to bond over this stuff. Bottling it up or refusing to give men the ability to bond with other men doesn't help -- in fact, it makes it more likely that guys will try to use it to bond with women.
And bonding with women over this stuff sometimes works! 'Negging', as a complaint, gets a lot of airtime. But there's a great deal of the phenomenon that's simply a part of how people flirt. Contrary to the popular interpretation, playful negging isn't about trying to genuinely hurt someone's self-esteem. What it does is create a sense of intimacy, by making statements that would be totally uncalled-for if made by a total stranger, and playfully dancing around the contradiction that the people are strangers. And it in fact presents a theoretical possibility of threat! But the point that's being made is that the man is so unwilling to pose a threat to the woman that the idea of him posing a threat to her is a big joke. He playfully insults because he's profoundly not interested in really insulting or threatening, and if it really is playful and there's chemistry, healthy, well-adjusted women enjoy the game. I have flirting level -100, so I'll refrain from giving an example.
This is fundamentally what men are doing with each other when they bond like this: they're accentuating the intimacy they feel for each other by demonstrating that they're so close and their bond is so tight, they can insult each other and engage in dominance behavior without any real threat. It's an indication that these men are so utterly far from threatening each other that even the concept of threatening each other is a massive joke that people find hilarious because of its implausibility. (This is the same reason why straight men engage in boundary-pushing claims of homosexuality -- they're so straight that even the concept of having sex with each other is an implausible joke. I presume this is one of those things that would really annoy a gay man if he happened to be present.)
The phrase I've seen to describe the differences between male and female bonding is that "men will insult your mother and have your back, women will tell you that you're beautiful and stab you in it." 'Toxic positivity', insofar as it exists, is mostly a phenomenon of female bonding styles being applied to broader social environments. 'Toxic masculinity', particularly the old complaints about angry gamer boys making puerile jokes, comes from these forms of male bonding being taken too far, and applied by skill-less idiots to environments of actual competition, or brought out in mixed company.
That's not to say that men can't engage in very positive, productive conversations with a lot of affection -- or that women can't be openly insulting. But there are differences in communication styles that reflect how men are theoretically threats to each other and to women for social power or attention, and this conceptual threat must be managed and minimized by close friends to the point of humor. The big problem is when this humor escapes the male-only and flirting contexts where it's effective, or is received poorly by people who don't want it or find it alienating.
If you think I lack for evidence for this just-so story, go look at the youtube comments for a male-oriented video and witness the "bro really took this too far," "least addicted gamer," "it's not that deep" comments, and then go look at a female-oriented video and witness the "OH MY GOD YOU ARE SO BEAUTIFUL," "Dr. So-and-so is so warm and helpful with such a great bedside manner ," "awwwwwww Butter the cat is such a cutie" comments.
No_one
2hr ago
EU will buy U.S. gas not Russian gas
My gas bill went up 2.5x times in '23. US LNG is, at the very least, 3x more expensive intrinsically compared to piped gas. It's quite likely following the war, Nord Stream is going to be repaired (currently 3/4 pipes are broken) and put back into order.
Gas prices have already devastated German industry, we could just shutter everything and keep buying US energy, but I don't think that's likely. Not everyone's like me and considering leaving this place.
China wants to work peacefully with us
That's what you heard. What the Chinese meant is that they're not Khorne enthusiasts, they don't consider shedding blood the point of war and want to see US bow out of the contest over who gets to call the shots in East Asia peacefully.
Their plan is, build up the army and the army's navy to the point US is going to be facing insurmountable odds - overwhelmed with masses of precision weapons. According to simulations, US is almost always losing the war anyway because it has no good missile defense, not enough interceptors and all local bases are in range of Chinese missiles.
In addition, likely China can blockade Japan and Korea from, at least tankers, without ever leaving home. If Iran can make a few 100 ballistic missiles, Chinese can make thousands and thousands of accurate ones. US is making ~150 ABM interceptors a year. No contest.
So a protracted war would hurt everyone, not just Chinese, and ever more so, as China's moving to using more EVs and building up their domestic grid.
Hamas calls for end to war
They always called for the to the war. They offered to return hostages in exchange for IDF staying out of Gaza.
EU will buy U.S. gas not Russian gas
EU was sanctioning Russia since the Ukraine war, so probably nothing to do with Trump.
China wants to work peacefully with us
China has been saying that since the Nixon visit?
No_one
2hr ago
It's missing some stuff like building physics, and tbh, I am just never buying that game unless it gets insanely appealing.
Wish normal Factorio was more combat-oriented. Like playing Rampant, the only problem is most people avoid that mod and it's hard to find anyone to play with.
I was thinking about buying Satisfactory but their community manager was posting woke shit on Twitter, and I decided to simply not give my money to people who are in my opinion stupid enough to pander to the worst people in the known universe.
jkf
2hr ago
A Twitter exchange is in fact a form of contract -- so whether the guy sent Nate a piece of paper saying "I will pay Nate Silver 100K if Florida goes less than R +8, otherwise he will pay me", I think the terms of the bet were pretty clear.
I certainly wouldn't require Nate to pay up based on the Twitter exchange, but that would definitely be the Honourable thing to do -- he can probably afford it based on what he's charging on Substack alone, and it would be great degenerate-gambler PR for him to do so.
Quantumfreakonomics
2hr ago
Nick Fuentes doesn't even like girls. I don't just mean that he's a mysoginist. I don't even think he likes them sexually.
I'm certainly not going to say, "your body, my choice," is good rhetoric, but there is a kernel of reducto ad absurdam to it. It's saying, "Hey, y'all were the ones saying, 'my body, my choice,' was on the ballot. Y'all lost, so now by your own reasoning that means your body is my choice, because we won."
Folamh3
2hr ago
Trump is President-elect for two days:
- Stock market hits record high
- Migrant caravan at our border dissolves
- Hamas calls for end to war
- Bitcoin hits record high
- Putin ready to end Ukraine war
- Qatar kicks out Hamas leaders
- EU will buy U.S. gas not Russian gas
- Putin will sell oil in U.S. dollars
- Zelenskyy phones Trump & Elon
- NYC Mayor ends vouchers for illegals
- Mexico to stop migrants at U.S. border
- China wants to work peacefully with us
- Big U.S. company to move out of China
I repeat: Trump has been President-elect for two days.
Can any of you confirm or deny any of these claims?
3d and grid based are orthogonal concepts.
Captain of Industry is both grid based, for building, and fully 3d. They might even add on tunneling (I'd love it).
Vehicles have bounds defined by the grid, but they don't move on it.
the second step is to fight with the actual construction because first-person gameplay is a terrible way to translate your thoughts into (virtual) reality.
You know, I was actually considering going to the forums to bitch to ask for a FPS perspective, or more precisely, being able to zoom in really close and really down - it'd cost them not much because trying to stick another conveyor belt in a big mess of other belts, from a bird's eye view is pretty hard. Despite the snapping code being very,very good!
I mean, I like grids because we're not neanderthals and lacking incredible memory we need things neatly laid out if we're not to keep getting sidetracked looking for stuff. Neanderthals didn't put their stuff in any sense of order whatsoever, suggesting either improbable stupidity (bulk of our ancestors wasn't likely much smarter at the time), or more likely, far better memory. Having to align stuff is a pain.
jkf
2hr ago
Yeah that article where he explained the house effects modelling had me screaming at my monitor.
Like, you've noticed that pollsters are herding, and then you correct for house effects by... measuring how different their predictions are from the median pollster!? WTF Nate.
No_one
2hr ago
The real problem isn't the spoilage, it's that there's so many feedback loops needed.
And the issue is, if you let your fruit to spoil, you lose the seeds. If you lose the seeds, you lose possibility of sowing them. So.. Yeah.
This got me like 4x due to certain bugs. I've decided to, at the very least, used bots with fruits and seeds. The rest is nuts, the devs purposefully went with absurd amounts of stuff like nutrients to discourage botting.
In the end I decided that this kind of shit needs a modular approach - don't even want to deal with calculations, so I made small units that each does one thing and then just connect them together.
The outer loops is nutrients and waste removal, the straight-thrugh belt is the actual processing.
The issue is mainly that I the fruit cycles were unsynced, so sometimes it'd stop working bc one wasn't available in quantity.
It relies on there not being a consistent (statistical, not political, although in this case it's probably both) bias in the inputs; ie. the polls.
As I recall Silver actually rates Atlas (who absolutely nailed every swing state) pretty highly, unlike (say) RCP -- but I don't think his pollster confidence correction really amounts to anything huge -- in the end he's basically aggregating ~all the polls (he does throw some out), and if the polls are wrong, so are his model.
Based on the polls, his model was probably correct that the election was roughly a coin toss -- but his aggregation ended up favouring Kamala roughly 2-3 points (ED: vs actual results) in all the swing states, which is badly wrong and not in fact inside the error margin of an aggregation of a bunch of polls at +/- 3%.
So his statewise model is probably pretty good -- I missed the flashy toolkit he had where you could choose results for some states and see the likely shifts in others this time around -- I'll bet if you plugged Atlas' polls alone into the model, it would have had Trump at like 80%. But he didn't do that, he relied on a bunch of polls that he noted showed obvious herding towards 50% and the (cope) hypothesis that the pollsters might possibly have corrected their anti-Trump lean and be herding towards 50/50 because... they were too scared to predict a Kamala win or something?
I guess the ballsy thing for Silver to do would have been, upon noting the herding, to toss out all of the polls showing signs of this, and see what was left.
This would have (probably) had a negative impact on his subscriptions though -- so whether it was greed or his personal anti-Trump inclination, he apparently doesn't really live on The River anymore after all.
grognard
Intel Pentium III 450 / Nvidia Riva TNT2 Ultra / Corsair 128MB PC133 / ABIT BH6
2hr ago
I can’t say I have any insight into controlled opposition strategy management. But as far as having a deal with the Feds, what other explanation do we have for his light touch treatment after Jan6?
No_one
3hr ago
The enemies are no threat - they only appear if you're farming the trees hard enough.
Don't care about pollution - care about the spores.
I mean, you can automate the space platform. I dumped like 15k iron on Gleba purely working out the bugs on mine.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3hr ago
I think the difference in requirements for agreement are due to the position of each group in the American dominance hierarchy. Democrats are still pretty dominant in most spheres, and therefore they don’t need to tolerate a situation in which they are hearing wrong-think. They don’t need Allies who are imperfect because they control most of the consensus building organs completely. Republicans and conservatives need those imperfect allies because they’re on the bottom of that hierarchy. They don’t wholesale own social media, in fact there’s only one social media platform out of 3-4 big ones where they aren’t actively suppressing conservatives. The6 therefore cannot simply move on if they hear something they don’t like. They’d have to cede the entire thing.
hanikrummihundursvin
3hr ago
I am sure he is a federal agent in some deep state conspiracy to... do... something? I don't know where the plot goes from there, hence why I asked: What does Fuentes being controlled opposition even mean?
Some arrangement was definitely made and ... Then what happens? Like, the FBI need to pay some guy to be a shock jock on twitter? They put CP on his PC and now he has to do as they say which is... Make fun of zionists, women and democrats?
I don't want to sound too dismissive but I don't know what relevance I should place on the notion that someone is a 'fed'. I mean, can I just refer to Ben Shapiro as Mossad and therefor dismiss everything he says when it inconveniences me somehow? I don't understand the purpose of calling Fuentes a fed otherwise.
MaiqTheTrue
Renrijra Krin
3hr ago
I mean sure, it’s plausible that in some odd universe that it’s possible that someone might pull a gun on a FEMA agent. But again, even with millions of Trump supporters there’s no incident like this. There’s perhaps a need for caution, but there’s a difference between “there have been threats made, so be careful and buddy up” and “avoid houses with [out group] signage because those guys are more likely to be the shooters.
yunyun333
3hr ago
How can news sites call it so early if it's such a small margin at the end?
Glassnoser
3hr ago
I don't know anything about that or what point you're making.
grognard
Intel Pentium III 450 / Nvidia Riva TNT2 Ultra / Corsair 128MB PC133 / ABIT BH6
3hr ago
Wasn’t Fuentes present during Jan 6? And wasn’t he, unlike so many others even less tangentially involved, not charged or imprisoned? This is why people think he glows. Some arrangement was made.
Silverdawn
Small Language Model
3hr ago
I really hate Gleba too. In hindsight, the biggest problem is you essentially have to beat the entire challenge before you get a reliable source of iron and copper. But you're going to get attacked regardless of whether you're doing well or not. There are other problems but the 'you're getting attacked and you have no good way to get bullets' is just an awful design decision.
In the end, I also went with the 'army of logistic bots' solution. I really wish there was some way to get future technologies without the Gleba science though, having to keep a space platform constantly running there and back is incredibly annoying.
I don't necessarily believe it's cope. A weak government (of either side) with no mandate is just less good than a clear victory (of either side).
Sure there's individual losers and winner (oil & gas especially), but I'd say there is a combination of a Trump bump specifically attributed to him with a bump for "someone has a mandate to govern decisively".
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