yunyun333
5d ago
From Wikipedia it looks like there are about 7000 referrals to Prevent every year, and about 13% of them are followed up with by a 'Channel Panel'. It's also voluntary. I suppose the police could 'watch' him but it seems like you'd need a lot of surveillance to stop a guy from committing a very simple knife attack.
yunyun333
14d ago
There are increasing calls to try IDF soldiers who travel to other countries for war crimes. It could never happen in the US of course.
yunyun333
16d ago
What about the part where he was having sex while in the same room as his young kid? That's pretty messed up. Guy really went down the deviancy rabbit hole.
On February 19, 2022, Gaiman and his son spent the night at a hotel in Auckland, which they sometimes did for fun. Gaiman asked Pavlovich if she could come by and watch the child for an hour so he could get a massage. It was a small room — one double bed, a television, and a bathroom. When he returned, Gaiman and the boy ate dinner, takeout from a nearby delicatessen. Afterward, Gaiman wanted to watch a movie, but the child wanted to play with the iPad. The boy sat against the wall by the picture window overlooking the city, facing the bed. Pavlovich perched on the edge of the mattress; Gaiman got onto the bed and pulled her so she was on her back. He lifted the covers up over them. She tried to signal to him with her eyes that he should stop. She mouthed, “What the fuck are you doing?” She didn’t want the child to overhear what she was saying. Gaiman ignored her. He rolled her onto her side, took off his pants, pulled off her skirt, and began to have sex with her from behind while continuing to speak with his son. “‘You should really get off the iPad,’” she recalls him saying. Pavlovich, in a state of shock, buried her head in the pillow. After about five minutes, Gaiman got up and walked to the bathroom, half-naked. He urinated on his hand and then returned to Pavlovich, frozen on the bed, and told her to “lick it off.” He went back to the bathroom, naked from the waist down. “Before you leave,” he told Pavlovich, “you have to finish your job.” She went to the bathroom, and he pushed her to her knees. The door was open. (Gaiman’s representatives say these allegations are “false, not to mention, deplorable.”)
There's plenty of other bizarre accusations that paint him as more than just a regular sex pest.
One evening, Palmer dropped Pavlovich and the child off with Gaiman and retreated back to her own place. Pavlovich was in the kitchen, tidying up, when he approached her from behind and pulled her to the sofa. “It all happened again so quickly,” Pavlovich says. Gaiman pushed down her pants and began to beat her with his belt. He then attempted to initiate anal sex without lubrication. “I screamed ‘no,’” Pavlovich says. Had Gaiman and Pavlovich been engaging in BDSM, this could conceivably have been part of a rape scene, a scenario sometimes described as consensual nonconsent. But that would have required careful negotiation in advance, which she says they had not done. After she said “no,” Gaiman backed off briefly and went into the kitchen. When he returned, he brought butter to use as lubricant. She continued to scream until Gaiman was finished. When it was over, he called her “slave” and ordered her to “clean him up.” She protested that it wasn’t hygienic. “He said, ‘Are you defying your master?’” she recalls. “I had to lick my own shit.”
yunyun333
16d ago
Trump's Mideast Envoy Forced Netanyahu to Accept a Gaza Plan He Repeatedly Rejected
Last Friday evening, Steven Witkoff, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, called from Qatar to tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aides that he would be coming to Israel the following afternoon. The aides politely explained that was in the middle of the Sabbath but that the prime minister would gladly meet him Saturday night.
Witkoff's blunt reaction took them by surprise. He explained to them in salty English that Shabbat was of no interest to him. His message was loud and clear. Thus in an unusual departure from official practice, the prime minister showed up at his office for an official meeting with Witkoff, who then returned to Qatar to seal the deal.
In fact, Witkoff has forced Israel to accept a plan that Netanyahu had repeatedly rejected over the past half year. Hamas has not budged from its position that the hostages' freedom must be conditioned on the release of Palestinian prisoners (the easy part) and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza (the hard one). Netanyahu rejected this condition and thus was born the partial deal proposed by Egypt.
It's hard to know how Netanyahu feels about this aggressive behavior. While it provides an excuse he can give to his base, he may resent being dragged into an unwanted deal that will end the war and possibly lead to political upheaval at home. His propaganda machine is pushing the no-choice narrative that it's Trump. On Monday, laments began to be heard on Channel 14 that Trump isn't what we thought. "I'm surprised all the senior officials in the U.S. administration are saying the same thing," Yotam Zimri said on the Patriots program. "If this doesn't happen by the time Trump comes in, Hamas will understand what hell is. I don't understand the Israeli interest in at least not waiting for Trump." Yinon Magal answered," It's because Trump is pressing to do it! That's what's happening."
Trump declared repeatedly that if the remaining Israeli hostages weren't out by his inauguration there would be 'hell to pay'. Most people assumed this meant that MIGA Don would fully back more aggressive Israeli military action, but instead he's willing to pressure Israel into a deal they don't want. Israeli finance minister Smotrich called it a 'catastrophe' and if he quits the government it would collapse Netanyahu's coalition.
Details of the proposed plan can be found here:
Both sides agreed that Hamas would release three hostages on the first day of the agreement, after which Israel would begin withdrawing the troops from populated areas. Seven days later, Hamas would release four additional hostages, and Israel would allow displaced people in the southern to return to the north, but only on foot via the coastal road. Cars, animal-drawn carts, and trucks would be permitted to cross through a passage adjacent to Salah al-Din Road, monitored by an X-ray machine operated by a Qatari-Egyptian technical security team.
The agreement includes provisions for Israeli forces to remain in the Philadelphi corridor and maintain an 800-meter buffer zone along the eastern and northern borders during the first phase, which will last 42 days. Israel has also agreed to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including approximately 190 who have been serving sentences of 15 years or more. In exchange, Hamas will release 34 hostages. Negotiations for the second and third phases of the agreement would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.
yunyun333
21d ago
I read about 35-40 books last year, in my defense some of them were really long (no one ever accused david halberstam of brevity). It's kind of a tragedy that so many people stop reading when they're not forced to. There are also disturbing stats about how half of American adults can't read above a 5th grade level.
Somewhat related, remember the goldfinch, bestseller from about a decade ago? Literary critics were disturbed by how popular it was despite being 'children's literature'. Is that still a criticism people level about modern fiction?
yunyun333
21d ago
Speaking of Maidan, can anyone who knows Ukrainian peruse the court document from this article and check if it's accurate? The author claims that many of the protestors shot during Maidan were shot by far-right pro-Maidan groups, not the special police (Berkut), and that this has been confirmed by a recent trial verdict.
A nearly one-million-word verdict from Ukraine’s Maidan massacre trial has recently confirmed that many Maidan activists were shot not by members of Ukraine’s Berkut special police force or other law enforcement personnel but by snipers in the far-right-controlled Hotel Ukraina and other Maidan-controlled locations a decade ago today. The verdict, handed down on October 18, 2023, states specifically that this hotel was controlled by Maidan activists and that an armed, far-right-linked Maidan group was in the hotel and fired from it. It also confirms that there was no Russian involvement in the massacre and that no massacre orders were issued by then President Viktor Yanukovych or his ministers. The verdict concludes that the Euromaidan was at the time of this massacre not a peaceful protest but a “rebellion” that involved the killing of Berkut and other police personnel.
The document in question: https://reyestr.court.gov.ua/Review/114304164
And some sections translated with google:
Video from a BBC reporter at the scene where he claims to have seen shooting from the Hotel Ukrainia: https://youtube.com/watch?v=zQhuD4F1yJ0
yunyun333
26d ago
I figure the whole 'military technology is so far advanced!' thing is only in areas where the military has far more of an interest than civilian scientists, like radar stealth/detection. The US military probably isn't hiding super-iphones. Gravity manipulation certainly isn't in their wheelhouse.
yunyun333
27d ago
Depends on what he considered a success. From his original letter to America, his goal was to get us to fuck off.
(5) We also advise you to pack your luggage and get out of our lands. We desire for your goodness, guidance, and righteousness, so do not force us to send you back as cargo in coffins.
(6) Sixthly, we call upon you to end your support of the corrupt leaders in our countries. Do not interfere in our politics and method of education. Leave us alone, or else expect us in New York and Washington.
yunyun333
1mo ago
Eh, both Jesus and Saul believed that the end of days was supposed to happen soon. I wonder how those early Christians reacted when Jerusalem was razed to the ground and the world kept on ticking.
yunyun333
1mo ago
Canada's finance minister quits over Trump tariff dispute with Trudeau
Canada's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned from her post, citing disagreements with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on how to respond to incoming President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs. In her publicly-shared resignation letter, Freeland said Canada needs to keep its "fiscal powder dry" to deal with the threat of sweeping tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump.
She added this means "eschewing costly political gimmicks" that Canada cannot afford. Trump has promised to impose a levy of 25% on imported Canadian goods, which economists have warned would significantly hurt Canada's economy. Referencing the tariffs, Freeland called them a "threat" that needs to be taken "extremely seriously".
She and Trudeau were reportedly also in disagreement over a series of recently-proposed policies by the prime minister designed to address the country's cost-of-living crisis. Among them is a cheque of C$250 that the government wanted to send to every Canadian earning less than C$150,000 annually. These cheques were expected to cost the federal government a total of C$4.68bn. Another is a temporary tax break on essential items during the holidays which is anticipated to cost C$1.6bn in lost tax revenue. Freeland's office had reportedly been concerned about the price of these two policies, saying they are economically unwise at a time when the country's deficit is growing.
Seems like Trudeau is floundering for some ways to keep his job and his head economist didn't approve. I'm not sure why Trump wants to mega tax Canada but it certainly can't have helped. This may end up bringing down the Trudeau government.
yunyun333
1mo ago
People don't look at the night sky enough. Here's the former governor of Maryland complaining about the constellation Orion. There are a lot of things up there that look strange when you zoom in really hard with a shaky camera!
yunyun333
1mo ago
Last Friday after several days of deadlocked deliberations, the judge agreed to the prosecutor's request to drop the most serious charge of manslaughter, and asked the jury to consider the lesser charge of negligent homicide. It's strange that the jury was so quickly able to dismiss this charge while spending multiple days debating the more serious one.
This case was pretty controversial but judging by the political temperature I don't forecast any major protests or riots.
yunyun333
1mo ago
Ports require lots of heavy machinery to do their job, you can't 10x their capacity in a few days. LNG terminals (Taiwan imports 98% of energy) also cannot be easily migrated.
The routes between west and east are highly mountainous. One was closed for 13 years due to typhoon damage. They could all be shut down with well placed missiles, crippling resupply.
This is all ignoring submarine warfare/anti ship ballistic missiles.
yunyun333
1mo ago
A blockade will require, almost certainly, getting ships onto the far side of Taiwan
The four ports responsible for >95% of shipping are all on the west side. The east side of Taiwan is obnoxiously mountainous.
yunyun333
1mo ago
Sortie generation is inversely proportional to distance, and Hawaii is ~5000 miles away from China's coast. If you can't stage out of Japanese bases or Guam then can you bring meaningful fires?
yunyun333
2mo ago
The US did try to kill Saddam though, and Saddam never bothered to surrender. When your tanks are rolling through Baghdad unmolested it was a pretty clear sign that his reign was over.
n the early morning of 19 March 2003, U.S. forces abandoned the plan for initial, non-nuclear decapitation strikes against 55 top Iraqi officials, in light of reports that Saddam Hussein was visiting his sons, Uday and Qusay, at Dora Farms, within the al-Dora farming community on the outskirts of Baghdad.[153] At approximately 04:42 Baghdad time,[154] two F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighters from the 8th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron[155] dropped four enhanced, satellite-guided 2,000-pound GBU-27 'Bunker Busters' on the compound. Complementing the aerial bombardment were nearly 40 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from several ships, including the Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Cowpens, credited with the first to strike,[156] Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USS Donald Cook and USS Porter, as well as two submarines in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.[157]
yunyun333
2mo ago
So is he part of said 'transition team' or does he just have the ear of someone on it?
yunyun333
2mo ago
We can't even produce enough shells for ukraine. It's explosive in a metal container, how hard could it be? And on the other end of the scale we can't produce enough ships, and also some of the ones we do produce are garbage, and we don't have enough sailors to properly man said ships. I don't see much reason to be more optimistic about the shiny new thing.
yunyun333
2mo ago
How can news sites call it so early if it's such a small margin at the end?
yunyun333
2mo ago
Taken from credibledefense:
Nothing quickly changed. Ukraine has been struggling with a major manpower crisis since 2023, now the front is finally collapsing as a result.
First off, military service has never been popular in Ukraine and they had issues with draft dodging since early 2015.
Early in this war the AFU primarily relied on volunteers or at least motivated individuals who eagerly did their duty when mobilized, ie conscription during wartime. However, the Ukrainian mobilization system was corrupt, incompetent, and the pool to pull from was deliberately kept small. Even by early 2023, cracks in the mobilization system were notable since early 2023. But nothing was done, probably because there were high hopes for the Spring 2023 Counteroffensive, if it went well then the war would hopefully end with a military victory in 2024.
But the counteroffensive was a disaster. More so, the Ukrainians kept it going for six months, racking up losses they never planned to take, the mobilization of new soldiers was grossly insufficient to replace losses, so combat units grew weaker and weaker. A reputable military analyst named Michael Kofman says the Ukrainian only cut their counteroffensive off because they basically ran out of troops.
During the summer of 2023, the mobilization crisis finally became so problematic that Zelensky got involved. The UA parliament passed a law to lower the mobilization age from 27 years old to 25, but Zelensky refused to sign it (he was worried about it polling badly). However, he did mass fire every regional military recruitment commander (called the TCC), as corruption and incompetence were the two best words to describe the system.
However, the situation didn't improve, it just got worse. Just as the Ukrainians cut off their strategic offensive due to unsustainable losses, the Russians started theirs, and it's only grown in intensity as time went on. Initially it was largely directed against Avdiivka, that culminated with its fall in April 2024. Then the Russian strategic offensive grew in scale on a broader front, adding Kharkiv in May, with other localized offensives against Chasiv Yar, New York, Kupyansk, and along different locations in the South.
The fall of Avdiivka was outright blamed on two things, limited ammo (blame fell on the US for not passing the large supplemental aid package to help Ukraine) and manpower. Zelensky finally agreed to make mobilization reforms and in April he signed the law to lower mobilization age to 25, he also signed laws expanding penalties for draft dodging, to make it easier for TCC to track mobilized personnel, and a few other odds and ends.
Ukraine mobilization jumped up in numbers in May, when the laws went into effect, and in June too, with the first month numbers of inducted personnel being reported to be at 35k, which was more than they got the previous four months combined. June supposed got about that many too, then it started dropping. Those that came in during May took about two months to be fully inducted into the AFU. counting admin, transportation, screening, training, and more transportation before they would arrive at their units, so it would be around August when the results would become noticeable.
However, August saw a much greater expansion of the war. Ukraine attacked Kursk, successfully too, driving pretty deep and taking close to 1000 sqkm of land. There are many reasons they might wanted to do that but what it did do is turn a relatively quiet frontage on the border hot, necessitating triple or more of AFU units to hold the new ground they took and to try to take more. Kursk has become the strategic main effort for Ukraine, that's where the majority of military assets are going in terms of reserves, quality equipment, and manpower.
In the Donbas, the Ukrainians never stabilized the front after losing Avdiivka and that's come to bite them in the ass. They've had numerous fall back lines but none held and the Russians keep advancing. Now they threaten the key transportation hub Pokrovsk, but also everything south of it. Because priority of everything is going to Kursk, the Ukrainians are losing more there, and many AFU units are being seriously attrited in those locations because they're stuck fighting against the Russian main effort (getting the bulk of Russian military support), taking heavy losses they can't place, effectively dying in place because they're not allowed to retreat and there isn't anybody to relieve them with.
The Russians launched a big offensive against Vuhledar in late August and it fell in late September, largely because the unit holding it was utterly exhausted. Reserves were sent and they did poorly, a mix of unpreparedness and poor morale.
Meanwhile, the manpower crisis keeps getting worse. The May July induction numbers dropped significantly, by 40% according to reports, or more. Zelensky still doesn't want to consider more mobilization reforms especially to expand the pool of potential recruits because he's worried about polling.
Overall, AFU morale is seriously degraded and now desertions have become a major problem, including among the better troops who finally had enough and quit because the way things are going nobody is leaving combat without becoming a serious casualty. The problem was so bad that the UA govt tried to fix it but because they're worried about political optics and polling, they took a very timid approach to limiting desertions, instead of cracking down they outright decriminalized desertion for first time offenders. The hope is those who left already will want to return knowing how badly they're needed and that there won't be any punishments. But it effectively motivated everyone who hadn't deserted yet as they know they too will suffer no consequences.
Overall, the intensity hasn't been this high since the start of the war in terms of Russian momentum. The AFU units fighting can't replace losses, can't be relieved, can't retreat unless violating orders. Losses are beyond casualties, most of the vacancies are deserters now. More and more units are crumbling, and when they crumble it causes Russian successes, as they aren't blind and are timing their attacks against the weakened units to take advantage..
I'm not saying that the AFU will crack and a major operational breakthrough will happen. But historically when those happen due to attrition, the runup to mass collapse looks like what is happening now.
yunyun333
2mo ago
As I understand it, the situation in the donbas is deteriorating at an accelerating pace in favor of russia. US officials have come to the same conclusion.
U.S. government analysts concluded this summer that Russia was unlikely to make significant gains in Ukraine in the coming months, as its poorly trained forces struggled to break through Ukrainian defenses. But that assessment proved wrong.
Russian troops have advanced in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. They have clawed back more than a third of the territory that Ukrainian forces seized in a surprise offensive in the Kursk region of western Russia this year. The number of Russian drone strikes across Ukraine has increased from 350 in July to 750 in August and 1,500 in September.
“The situation is tense,” said a Ukrainian major stationed on the Ukrainian side of the border near Kursk who goes by the call sign Grizzly. “We are constantly losing previously occupied positions, the enemy has an advantage in men and artillery, and we are trying to hold the line.”
In addition the number of glide bomb strikes has increased to >1000 a week, and it is too risky to deploy expensive anti air assets close to the front to counter these, as Russian ISR has improved. Shahed drone strikes are also getting through more easily due to depleted AA, Ukraine is no longer claiming 90% shootdowns as in previous months. Ukrainian desertion numbers have skyrocketed and their solution is that everyone gets 1 AWOL as a treat. Zelensky is still resisting Western calls to conscript 18-25 year olds but there may be no other choice.
yunyun333
2mo ago
This may not end up mattering in the end, but still hilarious.
yunyun333
2mo ago
NYT is predicting Trump winning iowa +9. So what was with that selzer poll?
The egypt thing according to twitter's translate is
which appears to be a reference to the Quimbaya goldsmiths whose artifacts date back to ~500 BC. Beautiful work and the pharaohs ruled until Cleopatra, so he's correct. Were the Chiribiquete natives the first artists? Probably not, but their rock paintings were pre-history so close enough.
What the hell is he referring to here? The Floyd riots?
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