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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32962 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 13, 2023

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An aging species tries to save itself

We begin with Do It For Denmark. The angle in this ad campaign is sex. Don't you want to have sex? No? Well, do it for your country, or at least your mother, who wants grandchildren. We'll also throw in a travel discount for a romantic holiday getaway, where you will hopefully have sex. Of course, the declining appeal of sex is probably not the main cause of declining birth rates.

Like Denmark, Iran also has a fertility rate of around 1.7, but of course we find a more conservative version of the exhortation to build a family in this ad from an Iranian cultural center. The sell now focuses on the benefits of a tradwife: she'll replace your alarm clock, cook you healthy meals, and give you children. I guess they saw no need for an ad on the benefits of a tradhusband.

For the most direct and honest appeal we turn to Taiwan, whose fertility rate of 1.0-1.2 portends a crisis possibly even worse than the much-discussed demographics of its belligerent neighbor. To a soundtrack that tries to be hopeful, this PSA from the Taiwanese ministry of education, which I recommend watching, pleads its case:

Once upon a time, building a family [/ settling down] meant that the man got a second mother [a wife cooks in the kitchen], while the woman had to leave her parents' home [to join the multigenerational household of her husband]. It took many years for her to realize she could search for her own voice ... outside marriage [they return their wedding rings in a bittersweet farewell].

One upon a time, building a family [/ settling down] meant the man's domain was outside the home, and the woman's inside. So they ended up living in separate worlds [split screen: woman waits on the sofa while the man works late]. But sometimes, all it took to break down conventional roles [man pushing a stroller with his son] ... was a chance. [Text: More and more men are taking paternity leave.]

Once upon a time, building a family meant rushing [to have kids], as if to wait was to waste [her] youth / prime years [pregnant woman hands her boss her notice of leave].

[Text advertises increased government assistance for fertility issues.]

When we've learned to better empathize with others, we've become stronger supporters of each other [happy gay couple]. And behind every step of progress we make [happy lesbian couple] ... are countless clashes and acts of persuasion. [Text: paternal benefits are also open to same-sex couples.]

Although things aren't perfect, over the decades we've seen more and more ways to build a family [group of happy young people at a restaurant]. And of course that includes starting a family while single [woman walks alone at night]. Because in a democratic society, everyone has the right to decide how they want to live their life.

[A couple takes care of their baby. The camera lingers on a pamphlet: "From 0 to 6 years old: raising a kid together with your country."]

With gender education [?] and environmental awareness as our starting point, let's work together as a society to do our "homework": raising the next generation. [Montage of different kinds of families.] We promise to work even harder to take care of more families, and make it normal and comfortable for everyone to ...

[final screen with slogan] choose to build a family, together.

I don't know about you, but the earnestness and sheer desperation in this plea really broke me down. And I have no reason to think the whole project isn't exactly that: an act of desperation.

Denmark had a small upwards bump after the Do It For Denmark campaign in 2015 (nat change per 1000: 1.0 -> 1.5, or some three thousand babies more) but it has since tapered off, and it is difficult tell if it was because of the campaign or other random variation.

ad from an Iranian cultural center

Man that ad seriously made me think for a few minutes that I should get married immediately (I felt seen at the cola and pizza leftovers vs juice and healthy breakfast bit).

Are they confusing having sex and having kids? Or are they implying low fertility rate is the consequence of people not having enough sexual intercouse, and if so, is there any data to support it?

That said, I can just imagine what a field day would people on some alt-right forums will have with the fact that Europeans now apparently need to be convinced to have sex (and the ad seems to place emphasis on the male as the party not wanting to rumble).

That said, I applaud to whoever in the marketing dept thought of this. Tapping into retiree's incomes to sell them active vacations they can't actually do is not an easy task, but they found a way.

all it took to break down conventional roles [man pushing a stroller with his son]

Oh come on, my woke copywriter bro, breastfeeding is breaking down conventional roles for a male, walking with one's son never has been.

paternal benefits are also open to same-sex couples.

Not sure how this is going to help the issue? I imagine the grammatical structure of wokese does not admit any other way of expressing it, though.

Because in a democratic society, everyone has the right to decide how they want to live their life.

But some of the decisions are so wrong, or we wouldn't be doing this ad.

With gender education [?] and environmental awareness as our starting point

It will all undoubtedly prove a huge waste of taxpayer money. But doubleplusgood woke duckspeak, to be sure. Maybe one day they'd be so desperate as to kick out the wokesters, but that day is definitely not today.

Oh come on, my woke copywriter bro, breastfeeding is breaking down conventional roles for a male, walking with one's son never has been.

All the reports of men being harassed for taking their child to the park because people are assuming they're some kind of paedophile kidnapper indicate otherwise.

That's not breaking conventional roles, that's moral panic which has been promoted for years in the press (completely contrary to stats showing stranger child kidnapping is a very rare event, and pedophiles mostly prey on children already close to them). But I don't think it has much to do with gender roles. It used to be normal for a father to play with their kids. I've seen old movies that are full of these tropes. It's not some recent invention, it's very traditional (well, maybe not in the Victorian tradition where kids are meant to be seen rarely and heard never, but in less rigid ones).

"All the reports"? I'm a father. I take my kid to parks. Other dads do also. I've never seen or 2nd hand heard of a dad being accused of anything at a public park. I accept that it must have happened sometime somewhere in a nation of hundreds of millions of people. But I believe such a thing is vanishingly rare.

I once took a teenaged non-blood-relative out to dinner. Given our relative ages and racial differences it should be obvious I'm not her dad and you wouldn't know we are relatives by marriage. I wondered if I looked like a creep. No one cared. No one gives a damn about a 30 year old eating dinner with a teenaged girl.

That's not tradition, that's the remnants of an earlier moral panic.

That said, I can just imagine what a field day would people on some alt-right forums will have with the fact that Europeans now apparently need to be convinced to have sex (and the ad seems to place emphasis on the male as the party not wanting to rumble).

From a Russian (headquartered in Riga, Latvia, ofc) liberal globohomo news portal Meduza.io:

At Berlinale 2023, Manodrome, a psychological thriller starring Jesse Eisenberg, was screened

You immediately recognise the protagonist - not Ralphie himself, but the type he embodies. A frustrated, lonely, struggling to cope with his impulses, obsessed with childhood trauma, a taxi driver in a metropolis at night: a direct descendant of Travis Bickle from Scorsese's Taxi Driver. Nowadays, such a loner drives an Uber. The director brilliantly defines his character in the opening scene: he's looking too intently in the rear-view mirror at a female passenger who has decided to breastfeed an infant right in the car. Calling the driver a pervert, she exits halfway through. In fact, Ralphie's interest can be explained. His girlfriend Sal is pregnant and about to give birth. Struggling with irritation and fatigue, she ploughs on at the supermarket cash register while Ralphie, who has recently lost his job, drives customers around. The only outlet in his life is the gym, where he works out to a deafening heavy metal soundtrack.

[...] The only hope for success comes when the guy is welcomed into their circle by members of the mysterious «Manodrome», an elite fraternity of men. Its members call themselves «sons» and its leaders «fathers». In this phantom club, Trengov has developed the dreams of hundreds of thousands of alpha males, venting their frustrations on the universe in the social networks. He has created the perfect ersatz family of incels, where women are not allowed.

The word «incels», as you can see, is helpfully disambiguated:

From the English "incel", an abbreviation for "involuntary celibacy", meaning "involuntary abstinence" [rus]. These are people who feel unable to find a sexual partner, despite wanting to do so.

Fair enough. However, doesn't this seem at odds with the text around, where incels are simultaneously alpha males who also avoid the company of women? Web archive, yesterday's snapshot:

From the English "incel", an abbreviation for "involuntary celibates". These are people who have completely renounced sex because of their own belief that they are incapable of building a romantic relationship.

I think this is telling. The notion that men can be genuinely not guilty of some failure relating to relations of sexes – whether to score or to sire – is about as far outside the Overton window as HBD. It just feels weird to those progressive journalists and the whole «Cathedral». There must be some mistake, or barring that, a conspiracy of alpha male incels who just refuse to pull their weight... It can't be that the solution lies in any conceivable change to female behavior, except even more emancipation, even greater triumph over toxic masculinity. Так победим.

Haven't heard about the movie, but looks like woke Fight Club, tbh.

As for the whole story, it always boils down to the same thing - in the leftist idpol ideology, the oppression categories are fixed, and only the proper oppressed are allowed to have qualia and have their suffering mean something. If you are not a member, your suffering is a) your own fault for being an evil oppressor and b) does not matter and you have no right to ever mention it, because it's just a cynical manipulation in order to keep your oppressor position. And if you try to make it otherwise, it never ends well - the "tragic finale" is guaranteed. As if you weren't warned by hot iron rituals. Thus, people that are desperate to find love and human connection, or struggling an ages-old struggle for meaning, are always reduced to a one-dimensional universal metaphor for evil.

The notion that men can be genuinely not guilty of some failure relating to relations of sexes – whether to score or to sire – is about as far outside the Overton window as HBD

Interestingly, the fertility rate itself says otherwise: whether they feel it's their fault is immaterial to the fact they're going "well, fuck you then", strapping on the wirehead if they have one, and laying flat. And when the barbarians come to enslave the women... well, they weren't putting out for the men of their own tribe anyway, so what's the difference?

I guess the shy Tory effect applies to the Overton window, too.

I, for one, welcome our new barbarian overlords.

Faustian man is done, the sooner we move on the more will still be around for the next civilization to build upon. This slow agony is almost unbearable.

Declining rates of sexual intercourse, plus a rising percentage of virgins and practical celibates among young people, have been recorded in most Western or Westernized societies (such as Taiwan) for many years. This, the so-called sex recession, has been discussed extensively on the parent subreddits as well, multiple times, and also on this forum here. I can’t be arsed to dig up sources because I’m lazy, and because the sources themselves aren’t much relevant here. But anyway, yes, I’m sure that declining fertility rates can easily be explained in part by this. And I’m also sure that it’s driven by multiple factors that are, in part, mutually reinforcing: obesity epidemic, opioid epidemic, rising rates of prescription drug abuse, rising rates of alcoholism and unhealthy life choices in general among single women and the resulting health problems, chemical pollution, endocrine disruptors in the drinking water, dropping sperm counts, a growing mental health crisis in society due to the consequences of social media use/abuse etc.

I think this belongs squarely in the 'raising awareness' category of government activity. Governments raise awareness about obesity, mental health, cancer and so on - it does basically nothing.

On the other hand, there are actual kinetic, physical actions.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/41487443

From the abstract of this article, it cost the government about Aus $ 126,000 per new birth in its fertility spending program (giving $3000 to women who have children). Accounting for inflation, that sums to about US $ 118,417.10 2022.

So if Taiwan wants to double its fertility (which I'll take to be that of 2019 pre-COVID, 177,767) births, it would cost somewhere around $21,050,634,839 per annum, or about 2.5% of GDP. That's more than they spend on defense, so they're at least consistent about ignoring all threats to national existence. Anyway this naively assumes the effect scales, which it probably won't seeing as many Taiwanese women are too old to have children or too rich to care about a few thousand here or there. There'd be some dysgenics too.

Only a massive spending program is going to have any significant effect. Alternately, there are more unconventional options like organizing social credit for parents (such that they're priveliged in education and workforce), suppressing contraception, placing caps on women entering higher education and so on. My suspicion is that the ultra-nerdy East Asian youth would instantly start having children if it meant they'd better be able to get into prestigious universities. The amount of effort that goes into education there is ridiculous. But nobody has bothered trying this. Perhaps it's a case of 'you know who else tried raising their country's fertility by encouraging mothers to have children?'

Real desperation is when states start taking serious action.

'you know who else tried raising their country's fertility by encouraging mothers to have children?'

My guess was gonna be "Communist Romania."

You assume that marginal cost of extra birth will stay flat. There is every reason to expect otherwise. As you buy yourself more births, each additional one will be more and more expensive.

I’m skeptical that even a massive spending program will have any effect. Eventually natural selection will run its course and the USA, France, Japan, Australia, etc will have high TFRs once more. Of course the populations might look very different, but eh, hajnalis shouldn’t have invented the pill.

Eventually natural selection will run its course and the USA, France, Japan, Australia, etc will have high TFRs once more.

... why do you think so? Even if we aren't all converted into biodiesel for use in drone tanks and jets by competing AI armies by 2060, there won't be much 'natural' selection going on within 50 years.

If we don't die out, odds are very high the dream of biological immortality is going to be realised, at that point a high fertility becomes a real problem unless your plan is to dismantle Venus into raw materials for a lot of space habitats.

Since it might not have been obvious immediately from the OP, the Danish ad doesn't belong to this category. It's an ad by a (private) travel company, and their goal is not (at least directly) to increase fertility but to sell vacations. Moreover, it's the travel company originally established by this dude, so using sex and publicity to sell vacations basically runs in their blood, so to say.

You might be the first person on the planet to suggest that Asians are too concerned with not copying Hitler.

I was mostly thinking about the West in that bit, that obviously doesn't come through in what I wrote. Anyway, it's striking how important demography and race was to Hitler's thinking. The whole objective of the war was to acquire land to fit more Germans on, ensure that there were as many Germans as possible. Population is power as far as he was concerned. But today, there's this schizophrenic thinking about demography where some countries like Canada and Australia want to massively increase their populations by immigration even as they artificially restrict and complicate housing, as they propagate memes about overpopulation. It's made out to be virtuous not to have children due to climate change. The notion that population is power seems to be very fringe, there's only that 'One Billion Americans' book.

China goes around calling the West racist for police brutality against blacks. They bring in tens of thousands of Africans to Chinese universities. They actually conducted a mass sterilization/infanticide program of their own people in the One Child Policy. Their rhetoric and their official policy are diametrically anti-Hitler. It's funny since China is probably the closest thing ideologically today to fascism but without any of the racial or eugenic angles. They've got the corporatism, the party-state and the national rejuvenation/revanchism elements.

China goes around calling the West racist for police brutality against blacks.

As did the Nazis, with the same motives.

I remember that Spike Lee movie where some waiting Germans tried a "Berlin Betty" kind of thing on an advancing black troop.

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