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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   26396 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 18, 2024

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I'm reminded of this Onion article:

U.S. loses Vietnam War: Ford Urges All Americans to Salute Our Vietcong Rulers

Russia is losing Ukraine in the sense that the US lost in Vietnam. They are failing to achieve their war objectives and are paying a high cost in blood and treasure.

But, in a different way, they are winning since they are grinding Ukraine down faster than they themselves are being ground down.

In any case, war is almost always negative sum. There can be multiple losers. This seems to be the case here. Russia is losing, but Ukraine is losing ever worse. And, in the end, it will be Russia, not Ukraine which imposes its conditions upon the other side unless a truce is arranged soon.

There can be multiple losers

And there is a clear winner, too, the US.

Even Ukraine being ruined is a good thing if you take the longer view - sure, there will be tensions and resentment for some years, decades maybe, but these are people with a common language and culture. You can't rule out another reorientation in 10 years, so squint a little, and civilizationally degraded and depopulated Ukraine is weaker future Russia.

If by the US you mean the oligarchs and the MIC then yes. Though it seems short term focused given the damage they've done to global finance. For us ordinary serfs living here not much of a win.

They’re paying a cost, but I would argue Ukraine is paying a much greater one and thus losing. Ukraine always had a much smaller population, was less militarized, more rural, etc. than Russia. If NATO a we’re not sending billions in aide and weapons, Russia would be much closer to victory than they are now. Ukraine can absolutely stalemate them for a while — until their military population shrinks to the point where they can’t hold territory, or the “allowance” gets cut off, or the public turns against the war because life without electricity and running water is miserable. Basically all we can do is keep Ukraine from losing for a while, at a cost of billions a month, at risk of Russia going after NATO, and until the last Ukrainian dies in a foxhole. That’s not us winning. It’s certainly not winning for Ukraine.

They’re paying a cost, but I would argue Ukraine is paying a much greater one and thus losing.

By that logic the Vietcong lost the Vietnam war.

Basically all we can do is keep Ukraine from losing for a while, at a cost of billions a month,

Do you think billions a month is a burdonsome amount in the context of government policy?

As a reminder- last year the Americans allocated $820 billion to national defense in 2023. As of earlier this year, the Americans spent about $64 billion in military assistance across the 30-ish since the Feb 22 invasion.

Over 3 years the entire Ukraine War military support costs has been less than 8% of 1 year of American DoD spending, or less than 3% per year on an annual spending level. 3% isn't nothing, but it would take decades for the current level of Ukraine War spending to match (1) year of 'normal' DoD spending.

DoD spending which is, by US treaty-law, required to enable/prepare the US to fight... Russia. Who incurs the harm and cost of every munition provided to the Ukrainians used against them. A war-preparation requirement which is increasingly less likely as the Russians lose their cold war strategic stockpiles and devolve into a Soviet Era military which will require years to decades of recapitalization, particularly if the Russians bork themselves by unsustainable spending for medium/longterm economic overheating issues.

There are plenty of other arguments one can make about Ukraine, and I'm not going to argue them in this point, but 'we're spending unsustainable amounts of money' is the opposite of reality. The business case / government finance case is for supporting the Ukraine War, not against it.

This is the same bot talking point NAFO bots spam all over twitter...

It's less an endorsement of the war and more an indictment of our government spending. DOGE save us.

Thank you for not contesting the point of affordability, I appreciate the concession in good humor. You do, however, bring an interesting question.

What are the maximum, and the minimum, non-indictable levels of military spending?

For the level of spending to be an indictment implies a non-indictable level of spending. That amount, in turn, would morally need to align with the legal obligations that the American legislature has passed on the American government, which includes things like security treaties.

Treaties are pieces of paper, ask the native american's how much the US cares about treaties. Trying to hold the US population hostage to a group of war mongering imperialists because some out of them have made agreements with other countries has nothing to do with morality. It's part of this whole conveniently framing things in bizarre ways in a weak attempt to justify your position thing you have going here that isn't convincing anyone.

Treaties are pieces of paper, ask the native american's how much the US cares about treaties. Trying to hold the US population hostage to a group of war mongering imperialists because some out of them have made agreements with other countries has nothing to do with morality. It's part of this whole conveniently framing things in bizarre ways in a weak attempt to justify your position thing you have going here that isn't convincing anyone.

Thank you for continuing to not contest the point on affordability. Thank you also for continuing the underscore your lack of counter-argument on the issue of affordability by introducing amusing divergences that demonstrate good humor.

Comedy is, after all, about the gap between expectations and delivery. For example, one might expect that a moral condemnation of broken treaties and war mongers of a century ago to be an admonishment to not break other treaties or tolerate imperialist war mongers in the present. Instead, spending treasure to honor treaties and otherwise protect independent states from a warmongering imperialist is itself the basis of condemnation.

This is funny because the punchline is that you don't actually care about unindictable spending or honoring treaties or opposing warmongering imperialists.

American appetite for ending the war is shrinking, which is reflected in Trump's election on pledging to negotiate peace. America might have more money to spend than Russia, but is less willing to spend it.

I'm sorry, I may misunderstand. You think that Trump or his administration is going to reduce government spending?

Not SlowBoy, but I'm pretty sure he was saying Trump was less willing to spend on Ukraine specifically, not government spending in total. He is, of course, free to correct me.

at risk of Russia going after NATO, and until the last Ukrainian dies in a foxhole

Russia will go after nato with what economy and military industrial complex?

He has given several red lines about under what conditions he’d consider using nuclear weapons. The latest one being “don’t allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia. Good thing we’re doing exactly that…

China's, presumably.

This is all a ploy to teach Russia about the power of friendship imported cheap labor.

To a large extent aren't we already in a position where if China truly cut Russia off, Russia couldn't continue the war?

I remain convinced from as soon as it became clear the Kiev wouldn't fall that the war will continue until Xi decides he wants a Nobel Peace Prize to burnish China's reputation abroad.

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