mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
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User ID: 1305
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
13d ago
When you say 'own battles', do you mean Ukraine, or something else?
It hardly qualifies as a theory of victory, but something to mention is the Mar-a-lago accords. I can’t find any discussion of these on TheMotte; it is loosely connected to "Are US gold reserves still in Fort Knox?" Musk/Trump talking point, so maybe this was discussed then.
The rough idea appears to be for allies to baghold US debt (a "soft" default? garnishing interest as back pay for the security the US provided in the past?) and to significantly devalue the dollar, giving US industries a shot at competitiveness. More a rumor woven from US officials’ grumbling than a concrete plan, but it raises questions:
How feasible is it for the US to overhaul the financial system in its own favor, again? Can drastic steps even make a dent? Or would it all implode if tried?
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
19d ago
After Ukraine, 'full NATO member' is not enough by itself - which member makes all the difference. US would do nothing, Western Europe would do nothing, Poland wouldn't move without US moving first, and if we did, it would be a criminal mistake.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
22d ago
Very neat, and worth watching for the lovely tune alone. Thanks!
Now that the proxy is expended, Americans pivot to deep concern for Ukrainian lives, to sober realism about Ukrainian prospects. Ukrainians to blame, for fighting, for taking scraps that were thrown to them, for trusting empty American promises. Admittedly Ukrainians were suicidally naive.
I wanted Ukrainians to take whatever deal they could have when ahead because I thought US was never serious about Ukrainian victory, that current outcome is the default. I did not think the pivot would be so shamelessly bold and callous, so miserly. My money was on Ukraine going into the memory hole.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
28d ago
No, there was a deal in place, and I'd say it was skewed in favor of the US, Europeans doing their part just fine. Now US wants to have and eat the cake both, because competition with Chyna is a daunting proposition without bold/desperate moves.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
1mo ago
I would support kicking Eastern Europe out of NATO
So would I, better no guarantees than false guarantees. False guarantees lead to complacency and Ukraine scenario for us.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
1mo ago
Deepseek is by far most notable for being state of the art reasoner model, out of China, released openly, with credible promises of more such releases to follow.
Secondary would be culture/vibe contrast to US labs, amount of cope and panic generated, widespread positive reaction and adoption in China, insight into actual costs and margins on US side, proof smaller players absolutely should not take American AI lab people at their word when they say not to bother trying to compete.
Shock announcement indeed. I expected the US to continue to support and whitewash Israeli criminal behaviour, not literally perform janitorial duties.
Abysmal optics, all smiles and courtesies next to Bibi, announcing violent cleansing, US funded redevelopment, gift to Israel barely obfuscated by "they ALL want to leave", "uninvolved countries will pay", "everyone will live there afterwards". They way he was describing why the plan is needed today, an uninformed person would be excused if they thought a natural disaster struck Gaza, repeatedly.
I liked the post Dase wrote, machine part included; 'ai slop' is harsh, but I think it only applies here.
I know pretty much nothing about it. Chinese claims seem like a bit of a stretch. I hope the sea hosts a US naval humiliation.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
1mo ago
The standard would be, extortion is when you abuse your power to benefit at the others expense. I do understand you can frame almost anything as merely hardball negotiations.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
1mo ago
Trump’s order also includes a mechanism to escalate the rates if the countries retaliate against the U.S
I hope they do retaliate. This nakedly extortive behavior is supremely off-putting, especially when coupled with Trumps victimhood narrative. "Woe is me, empire expansive, everyone abuses us" is turning me into a Chyna simp.
I'm heavily biased, but I believe this direction is not unique. Back when the Russian invasion on Ukraine was fresh, the 'China or US dominance?' question got me baffled looks across the board from a diverse group of friends/acquaintances (context: Poland). Very different attitudes today, with how Ukraine was treated, with Trump blatantly attempting to cannibalize ally industries, with Chynese hedgies bearing great gifts.
90 days is already very harsh, please do not permaban him.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
2mo ago
Fully expect to see domestic humanoid form factor robots come out of China in 2026 onwards.
I agree this is feasible, and wonder if plebs in Europe would be permitted to buy them. The fear that when imported at scale, they would essentially be a foreign army billeted all across the country, ready to pummel people to death at any time, seems inescapable?
Nightmare scenario: Chinese are building them by the millions, speed running unparalleled prosperity, having tons of fun. Meanwhile Europeans get to chose between overpriced, crappy Ameribots with the same risks, or Eurobots made impractically expansive by lethargic development and US sabotage.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
2mo ago
Ok, removed.
Certainly a good thing for Israel. They would prefer an ethnic cleansing fully realized, but a sea of ruins, 100k-200k dead and maimed, Hamas and allies crippled, with US support unwavering, is still satisfying, I imagine. I wonder if they will make serious efforts to keep the conditions in the area abysmal, and try to push the locals to emigrate, or take a different approach.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
2mo ago
Return from the Stars was my favourite, though it has been a decade.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
2mo ago
Perhaps https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2022/10/11/why-high-speed-rail-hasnt-caught-on/? I remember it making a good point for airports over high speed rail, at least good enough to sway me.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
2mo ago
Why attempt such a brazen, obvious lie, with approximately nothing to gain? Just baffing. Make me think I'm being psyoped somehow.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
2mo ago
timer rigged to the voice recognition too
Nothing so fancy! I did not try using triggers, holding out for AI assistants instead. By 'quite closely' I meant more that I tracked essentially every hour of the year, but making extensive use of Edit->Action->Divide functionality whenever I forget to switch activities.
I was going for detail initially, but unsurprisingly that risks burnout - I instead settled on pretty broad 'activities' that serve as baskets for everything other than distinct activities I definitely want to track - 'Sleep', 'Books', 'Anki', 'Mealprep', 'Exercise' etc. Baskets like 'Routine misc' (tasks that keep you from falling apart), 'Tasks misc' (small tasks that get you somewhere you want to be), 'Nothing' (exclusively bad, mindless web browsing goes here). I don't bother with activity tags, it's more clicks, more decisions, and rarely a tag is more justified than another activity.
It also helps the app has the widget that cuts the interaction to just Touch Widget -> Touch activity.
Working to have 'Nothing' diminish as % of total hours tracked, while remaining honest, is a nice goal, most tangible positive effect the app had for me.
I was tracking my daily activities quite closely this year - Simple Time Tracker (ignore the screens they show, dark version is far more visually pleasing) is one of those best-in-category things I wish I knew a good list of. I intend to continue, it's motivating and therapeutic both.
I'm at 429 hours of books for 2024, +/-13k pages, only 30 pages/hour. Far, far more than the year before - in my case at least, it came down to the combo of accessibility (god bless Anna and her archive), seamless switching to 'audiobook' with text-to-speech (Voice Aloud is awesome for books in all formats, or any text really, especially with the new Google Journey voices) and a wireless headset. Now if only I had an endless supply of genius-tier literature recommendations.
Safe in South America, as far as I can tell.
mildly_obsolete
Now 80% less juvenile.
3mo ago
I did try it a while back, based on a weak recommendation from here, as well. Was mostly curious if they managed to make at least one good show under the IP.
I hated it. Paper thin on all fronts.
For what it's worth, it did read like a joke to me, hinging on the incongruity between a dismissive term and actual labour costs.
Interesting topic, this 'tradition' of jokes - a relic; today, domestically, they track as innocent, too much self-confidence for them to be cutting. And even a while back, my grandfather had many tiny tomes full of these jokes. I do not remember them ever being construed as a serious matter. A lot more serious for emigrants, I imagine.
Come to think of it, the 'Polack' itself as a derogatory term barely registers, I'd likely be unaware of it if not for the '/pol/ack' twist (quite different in meaning, positive really).
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