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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   1901 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 20, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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I think average productivity in the US will take a dive over the next month. For the 2.5 weeks before Nov 5, much of the public will be psychologically consumed by election uncertainties that distract them from doing quality work, and then for another week or two afterward, the losing side will mope while the winning side get drunk. I don't think the impact will be limited to "bullshit" knowledge jobs that don't produce much tangible outcome anyways, but extend to all sectors. For instance, I predict restaurant meals will taste worse, surgeons will make more mistakes, etc.

Thoughts? Do you anticipate any election impact on your own productivity over the next 30 days?

Instinct: no way! Most people don’t care about the election any more than they care about the Super Bowl. Internet political forums are a hell of a selection bias.

On second thought: I need to get back to work instead of moderating said forums.

But how could this be measured? Stock market? Number of malpractice lawsuits? Firings? Place your bets.

The only impacts I recall in 2020 were a few local businesses whose owners were arrested on Jan 6th. Other than that I didn't notice any disruptions.

A lot of people will have some stuff occupying their mind and causing their work productivitity to suffer anyhow. If it's not politics then it's personal life stuff, hobbyist drama, sports, celebrity shit, UFOs or whatever.

For politically obsessive terminally online weirdos, our habits will remain the same. For normies, they will be annoyed by political ad but otherwise remain unchanged. There is only a small, niche group of people that actually care, but aren't already enmeshed in this nonsense constantly.

Time to short the market then bud.

I probably would spend less time reading the news than usual, until the election. I don't believe anything short of super-dramatic things is going to happen to change anything - there's probably no dirt on Trump left that could be discovered (if it were possible, they'd do it in the last 8 years), no dirt on Harris, even if discovered (which is unlikely), will be published anyway widely enough to make any effect, and if something like somebody dying happens, I'd hear about it somehow. So, reading any news from now till the election is completely pointless.

I kinda doubt it. I think it’s a hobby of the too-online crowd, but I’m not convinced that the median American is all that interested in the election. I’m not hearing much discussion of the election in the real world, I’m not hearing ordinary Americans discussing things like Project 2025, trans people, immigrants or their culinary habits, etc. I’m also seeing a lot fewer signs around my neighborhood, bumper stickers, roadside homemade signs, hats, shirts, etc. honestly I’m not sure anyone else is interested. The only real conversation I’ve had offline about the candidates was right after the first assassination attempt, and that was mostly a short conversation of “OMG, did you hear someone shot at Trump.” “Yeah, that’s really weird.” That’s it.

Given this level of interest, I think you’re not going to see a lot of people consumed with election uncertainty to the point of a measurable impact on productivity. It’s not really something I’m seeing a lot of people thinking about or talking about or anything like that. I see more sports talk around me than election talk.

I was unfavorably compared to Kamala Harris on a customer call. (I was typing and talking at the same time and started to say word-salad.) I think people mostly avoid talking about politics when out in groups, but it is on people's minds.

I may be wrong of course but the reason most don't discuss these issues is because they want (if only unconsciously) keep the fragile illusion that all of their surrounding peers hold the same views as they themselves hold, regardless of how tenuous. Broaching such topics in the current climate has the potential to create a bloodthirsty ideological combatant or lifelong enemy, where before there was just Rusty, the guy at the Hardee's on Tuesdays.

If not gone, certainly dormant are the days when healthy political discussion was a way to pass the time. I was at a group gathering recently where when someone brought up the election I said offhandedly that I would really prefer a Trump to Harris (though I was clear I did not in any way like Trump) and it was as if I had said I believed the moon was made of cheese. All eyes turned toward me with what seemed a sudden constriction of pupils and sphincters. It was a beer garden however and Bacchus hates a serious tone, so the boat eventually righted itself and we carried on (on far different topics.)

I mean it’s certainly possible, but then again we didn’t seem to have that problem with other elections. Even with it being contentious in 2016 and 2020, people still talked about current events to some degree, and people did put out yard signs, at least around me. There are now more sports flags flying than Trump or Harris combined. There’s not really much tension that I’ve seen, just that it’s not something people are interested in. They’re also not really following news. It’s just not something in the air, or anything that people seem dialed in on. It might make a difference where you are, I’m in Missouri which is pretty conservative.

No doubt--I'm in Japan, so there's that. I don't have a feel for what it's like on the ground in the US.

I think it won't matter because most people are already indulging their digital addiction to the max anyway. (Looks at self). Lately I've begun to notice how many people are looking at their phones while driving. It's pretty crazy.

Boring election coverage can't compete with Tiktok.

We are doomed.

Who's "we"?

The car in front of you as you posted this.

I was thinking you and me specifically, but others are welcome to join.

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