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The reaction to JD Vance has been hilarious to me. There was a clip from some speech that Tucker Carlson was giving during the convention and he said (paraphrasing): "Here's you know how JD Vance is one of the good guys: all the bad guys in Washington DC, who want to keep you in permanent wars, that want to ship your jobs overseas, and that hate you, your children, and your way of life, those people all hate JD Vance. They're furious that he's anywhere near power."
Tucker Carlson...I don't know, but the reaction to JD Vance from all of the worst people that I see on twitter/reddit/etc. does seem to match up with this. This joke (very mean spirited, be warned) from twitter sums it up pretty well: https://x.com/grandoldmemes/status/1817666334823518436
Mainstream republican votes don't think JD Vance is "weird", they would look at you like a weirdo if you ever made a joke about JD Vance and couches, they certainly don't think that JD Vance should be inspecting the wares of every single vendor at every single gun show he has ever attended and doing background checks on all of them before being in the same building, etc.
They like JD Vance. The reaction validates him to me.
I guess Tucker Carlson must not be familiar with Maxim No. 29.
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This matches my impression. Where is all this JD Vance criticism coming from? The neocon types and the Democrats. Why exactly is this a drag on Trump when these are the people who would be criticizing virtually anyone he had picked?
You forget the white nationalists and 4channers calling him a miscegenating race-traitor; the paranoid "mark of the beast" folks who see him as a Thiel/Palantir/CIA puppet here to enact total digital surveillance; and the "sigma male" crowd around Vox Day calling him a possibly-gay "gamma":
The "the paranoid 'mark of the beast' folks" either bailed out of politics years ago to avoid becoming "of the world", or are holding thier noses and voting for Trump out of civic duty and hopes of maintaining a conservative majority in the USSC.
The rest are electorally irrelevant and if the Republicans think they can pick up even half of a percent of the minority vote by pushing them in front of the proverbial bus they will and they should.
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While it's impossible to ignore the online dimension of Vance criticism (and what kind of criticism isn't at least a little online nowadays?) that's not what gives the criticism its legs. No, the concern lies in what the more accurate political pundits are saying about his potential influence on the election, and this is grounded in polling, so it's not just white noise.
Two particular and factual points. Recent polling indicates that in his "home region" which includes significant battleground states (that's Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin), CNN pegged him at -16 net favorability, which is dramatic. Especially considering that usually VP picks are chosen specifically for their help in swing states! That he's hurting them there instead is notable.
Second, if we look nationally and compare again to historic VP picks, his polling is currently worse than Sarah Palin at the same point in time (i.e. right after the convention). And potentially the worst ever. One poll had net approval as -5 and another at -13. In fact literally no VP pick ever has had a negative net favorability rating (edit: at this stage)!
So yeah. It's not just insiders. This is data from voters themselves. Sure, that's a function of media attention in some respect, but this early in the campaign? I think a claim that it's just people out to get him is unsupported.
edit: Palin trajectory for comparison. She did end up around -20 net. Since typically net favorability tends to decrease for most VP candidates as the campaign goes on, starting already in the red is worrying. Note that although the chart goes longer, her net rating was only around zero-ish when the 2008 election actually happened, so -5 is still worse than she ever was during the actual campaign!!
I'm not really sure I'd call Illinois and Indiana battleground states. ohio and michigan, sure. But Illinois and Indiana aren't particularly competitive.
Well yeah but thus the word "include". Michigan and Wisconsin are literally 2 of maybe 5 states that will decide the election, so have absurdly outsized importance. In typical cycles, even improving your vote share by a half percent in those states could swing the election, and so to realize that Vance is potentially a drag? That's big news.
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Could you link to those polls? How much of that factual point is democrats responding to the polls? It would not surprise me at all if the polling was far more partisan than when Palin ran and democrats answering presidential polls are probably skewed far more negative nowadays toward republican candidates regardless of who that candidate actually is. I don't think people during the McCain campaign era would be grousing that an assassination attempt against him failed. I think even discounting McCain being an outlier where democrats could like him that kind of opposition party respect just does not exist anymore. Trump is literally Hitler. Vance what's-his-name is VP, well then he's Hitler, too. Not even saying it doesn't work both ways but I'd bet that favorability does not matter unless someone is undecided anymore because anyone who's of the opposite party is going to be as negative as it can get.
I genuinely think it would make little difference who Trump picked. There would be wild and constant hysterics about anyone. Some of it would be mitigated if the person had more experience or was a more palatable gender or race but they'd still be ground into dust by the media machine just like Palin was and Vance is getting done. If Vance's childless cat-lady quote can be so easily taken out of context and create an entire personality for people to hate then anyone who has any public statements in the past is going to get the same treatment.
Ask and you shall receive!
This article summarizes some of the anecdotal concerns fairly well. As for polls, here is a source on comparisons to VP picks back to 1980, this article summarizes the four polls that asked specifically, and if you look at this YouGov poll linked in the previous roundup as an example, they have him at -8% (page 20), or -4% with registered voters more specifically, and -25% among self-identified moderates if you're trying to divine how the "swing vote" might go. Reuters/Ispos had him at -7% net, NPR/PBS/Marist at -3%, CNN -6%. The -13% was probably a less reputable poll, I was probably not cautious enough of hearsay there, but the original source I tracked down and is here.
Furthermore in at least the YouGov poll which I mentioned, and also the most recent Ipsos one, you can see independents and moderates reflect this trend, so it's not just closet Democrats. Ispos for example among n=341 independents shows a -15% net favorability rating!
So yeah, it's not just one poll, it's all of them. Obviously there's still plenty of space to go, it sounds like about a quarter to a third of voters either don't know him (Ipsos: 32% of independents, 20% of registered voters) or don't have a strong opinion right now, but given that normally VP picks provide an instant bump and only peter out later, it's big news. Polling seems to generally indicate that the upside of VPs more generally doesn't matter that much (though occasionally in their home state it does), but the downsides can move the needle. Palin for example didn't cost McCain the election (he lost by a lot) but as an example this paper thinks she cost him a whopping 2%. In national politics, that's very notable!
Thank you. I wonder if not having a direct competitor at this point is having an effect in any way. Much the same as "generic democrat" or "generic republican" can probably beat any specific democrat or republican. I think until he gets into a debate or does like a 60 minutes interview most of this is prognosticating without enough information. Palin not being able to name books or supreme court decisions is a kind of gaff/failure that moves the needle in my mind and as long as Vance can come across as even slightly intelligent he won't be impactful to the election. The fact that they're going so hard and so constantly against him with so little means, in my mind, they don't have much to tar him with. I am surprised they seem to have him out there appealing to the base though, maybe they needed to appeal to republicans more than independents.
Maybe his freshness or even appeal to republicans is a reason to pick him, but maybe it's just that Trump can stand him and considering the volatility of trying to get a VP that might publicly disagree with Trump and get Trump to start huffing and puffing at his own party it might be better to pick an "unlikable toady" than someone who might cause Trump to gaffe himself out of the election. It heads off Trump tripping over himself down the line. Who knows what strategy was put into the choice or if there wasn't any at all, really. Trump feels like a black box that you can't mess with if you want it to perform, if he decides it's JD Vance, then just let it be and try to make best of what you have.
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The people criticizing Vance wanted Nikki Haley.
I wanted Haley, and I like JD Vance just fine (much better than I like Trump) FWIW.
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I've seen a good few who weren't Haley fans -- Pete Spiliakos or EsotericCD, both of whom would have preferred Youngkin -- but they also generally weren't Trump fans, and many had (and some still have) committed to not voting for Trump regardless.
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And if they'd gotten her, she'd get the Romney treatment from them. Probably not literally "binders full of women", but something equally unreasonable.
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It’s not coming from neocons, Vance is a full neocon as regards policy toward Israel. It’s coming from very online types on both the left and right.
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