aqouta
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User ID: 75
aqouta
4hr ago
This is a straw man. If anyone critiques the present United States/Western economic system, he must believe in some terrible 19th century egalitarian philosophy book.
You have the same basic problem of the communists, you think you can decide better than market actors what labor is worth paying for. It's an incredible hubris. The employer wants to pay senior staff well, the senior staff wants to do work but you seethe separately at the arrangement.
The problem with this is that basically nobody who makes this argument is willing to let the fentanyl market come to full fruition. Or many other markets.
There's a lot of space between anarchism and not believing that you should get to decide who's labor is valuable and who's isn't for other people.
What are you talking about? In reality I am only allowed, with a ton of friction, to create a tax paying company that panders to the democratic market. If I create a business that actually crushes other institutions and takes, that's called a criminal enterprise in the vast majority of cases, and the commies come in and violently destroy you. We do not live under anarcho-capitalism.
Are you talking exclusively about state run businesses?
aqouta
6hr ago
Sure, if you want to quibble over how far of an advancement mythos was then I think there are a variety of reasonable opinions. But this is very much part of chicken's "Ai bulls in shambles" series of posts and I can't help but point out that the people he's calling out as being in shambles here were basically right in previous iterations if you take the supposed doomsayer's opinion at face value.
aqouta
8hr ago
We can just as soon as redistribute the consumer tokens as we can ban the AI. Which is why I've been banging on about Universal Income with like a consumption tax this whole time. Banning AI won't work for many reasons, not least of which because other markets won't ban it.
aqouta
11hr ago
HBD itself is a term mostly used by us autistic online types. Your standard vulgar racist doesn't reach for academic sounding terms to justify their views.
Again in actual practice is used to argue against theories of disparate impact which are very collectivist. "reshape society" is impossibly vague.
aqouta
11hr ago
The amount of steering it needs is still totally speculative. There are a thousand reasons you'd run the queries yourself rather than give some rando model access. And @ChickenOverlord goes well beyond claiming the tools are moderately over hyped, he's argued extensively that they're basically useless for coding.
aqouta
19hr ago
HBD believers,
HBD is a belief about an is, not an ought. It says nothing about collectivism vs individualism and in actual practical use is almost always used to counter a collective guilt blood libel.
aqouta
20hr ago
Like I said, I prefer the strong argument. But on this point, I don't need to analyze old people's labor, I can just analyze labor right now. I'm convinced most of the economy is just a circus and is pretty far removed from serious natural laws. The economy should be in service to improving the human race but 95% of economic activity is not that. That means a lot of people make a lot of money producing no value, since I only count value as human race improvement. This point meets a brick wall with most people though because you can't make a man understand what his salary depends on him not understanding.
You're basically a communist, you think there is some way that we could organize the economy to produce more abundance and progress. Yet all attempts besides nibbling around the edges have failed just giving people property rights with some ground rules and letting it rip, which produces all these things you complain about. Doesn't apply to like government mandated redistribution but that's not the central case. Nothing stops you from trying to create a business that competes with the unfair and negative sum discrimination you claim is endemic, if you're right you should be able to quickly crush those institutions and take from the boomers what they didn't earn.
aqouta
20hr ago
Nope, I remember a lot of nights spent studying and doing my homework for my CS degree. There was also a lot of time to trying and go pro in gaming though. I suspect non-stem people had more free time.
aqouta
21hr ago
Did you ever get around to trying my suggestion for setting up a code harness and predigesting your code base?
So I'm asking @self_made_human and others who seem more on-board with the AI hype train: does this report from a knowledgeable and experienced developer change your opinions on the future trajectory of AI at all?
I don't really have any strong opinions on what one dude has to say about about a model I can't otherwise evaluate myself, but in your own article the guy you're apparently claiming is skewering ai and that should put us in shambles also said:
We also see a high volume of high quality security reports flooding in: security researchers now use AI extensively and effectively.
Like, I dunno, man. Do you not feel like the goal posts are shifting here? It's useful but one report from mythos on one repo where the guy said he was disappointed that there weren't more bugs found because other AI tools had found more(Which were already patched and thus not available for mythos to find)? This is your justification for the whole of AI being slop and hype?
I guess I update slightly in favor of mythos being closer to the current public sota rather than a league ahead of it. Perhaps the Curl codebase is just actually so tight that the whatever IQ equivalent level security expert that mythos represents wasn't about to find much, I promise you that other projects are not so tight.
curl is one of the most fuzzed and audited C codebases in existence (OSS-Fuzz, Coverity, CodeQL, multiple paid audits). Finding anything in the hot paths (HTTP/1, TLS, URL parsing core) is unlikely.
aqouta
8d ago
hygiene issues
Alright, this is a little off topic, but is this actually like seriously a widespread issue? I might be a bubble, but even among the nerdy guys I've hung around with hygiene is not an issue unless they're like the highest tier of still functioning autistic.
aqouta
8d ago
It's kind of funny that superman's position basically can be used to justify the evil government plots of the Xman series.
aqouta
9d ago
you will either 1-box or 2-box, based on the movements of the clock. We can also compute from axioms regarding the clock's movements that 1-boxers will possess more money
This seems more or less yud's position.
You're in this hypothetical situation where you need to think about the rational way to proceed optimally, and here is why you should choose to act in the following way.
This seems basically identical. What you decide to do is determined but all of the reasoning is part of how it happens anyways. From the first moment time one boxers were always going to follow this game theory reasoning and none the less, like how a domino still does cause the next domino to fall, the reasoning is still relevant. I just don't really see what the game theory problem here is, choices are relevant to the reasoning that individuals do, free will or not that's how the meat computer in or head picks which muscles to contract.
aqouta
10d ago
You can also just model it as omega knowing whether or not you're smart or lucky enough to come up with the right answer to get the $1m. If you pick the right answer you get $1m if you don't then you don't. It's a bit of a brain twister but it works out.
aqouta
10d ago
Your choice reveals what kind of person you are, which omega already knew. If you didn't know what you were going to choose ahead of time that's a mark of your ignorance, not omega's.
aqouta
10d ago
If you choose to one box after the decision period by reasoning it out then you are in fact the kind of person who would one box. If you say fuck it, it's too late then you're in fact the kind of person to two box. Thus it still hinges on your decision, albeit the concept of libertarian free will is questionable.
aqouta
11d ago
This is only possible if you model people as deterministic mechanisms and not as rational game theory agents
These are not in tension. In some game theory scenarios adding randomness, if such a thing is actually possible, is useful to some agent. But Newcome's problem is not such a scenario. Adding any chance of walking away without the $1 million is not worth going for the extra $1k and to the best of my knowledge the best you could do by adding randomness would be to make your expected value $500,500. Whereas your expected value if you cooperate is $1m
As for the rest of the post, yeah just seems like you're demanding the hypothetical grant you libertarian free will and say something different than it says. It's very "But I did eat breakfast this morning" fighting of the hypothetical. If you want to demand that actually you can't be predicted, even hypothetically then you're just not willing to engage with the question.
aqouta
11d ago
The problem with Newcomb's problem is that it basically involves time travel, and generally underspecifies how that time travel works. Consider a similar problem:
Not time travel, just perfect prediction. If you're actually a perfect predictor then you can in essence see the future. If you had a perfect model of physics and initial conditions then you could predict a coin flip with 100% accuracy. The kind of reason a human does when presented with the boxes is no different unless you a proposing some spooky non-material stuff in the reasoning. The formulation I'm familiar with is perfect prediction in which case there are four theoretical cases.
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You one box and Omega correctly predicted you would one box thus you get $1m
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You one box and omega incorrectly predicted you would 2 box so you get zero. This is impossible by construction, omega cannot predict wrongly.
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You two box and Omega incorrectly assumed you would one box, you get $1m + $1k. This is impossible by construction, Omega cannot be wrong.
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You two box and Omega correctly guesses you'll two box. You get $1k.
There are only two actually possible options with the given constraints and you get to make a choice which of them is the case. This is not a paradox unless predicting future events is impossible.
Your whole reasoning relies on there being something intrinsically impossible about predicting your decisions, even as you lay out the reasoning for them. Is it so hard to imagine that someone could read you well enough to know which outcome you'll ultimately reach?
aqouta
12d ago
All good, I was really confused because it feels like being a two boxer would have super conflicted with everything he believes in.
aqouta
12d ago
I didn't notice the first link was yud himself but unless I'm reading the post wrong he seems like a one boxer? does he take a definitive side elsewhere?
aqouta
12d ago
Where's yud's 2 box argument? I'm not sure what the very smart 2 boxers believe but one of the most common two box explanations boils down to a disbelief that their actions can be predicted at all because they imagine some kind of free will break after the boxes are set.
aqouta
16d ago
Did you grow up with sisters? Nail polish itself has always been a pretty neutral concept to me, like wearing hats. Now certain types of nails, and hats, certainly can signal things. Long false acrylics have a reputation for low class, black is a signal of either goth or bisexual but just a subtle gloss is pretty common in my fortune 100 company.
aqouta
23d ago
Courtship isn't exactly a modern invention in the last 70 years. It happens in observed and studied hunter gathering tribes and we have records of it in every civilization. It happens in other closely related species and we have many of the sexual dimorphic characteristics, concealed ovulation and year-round female receptivity, classic to pair bonding species.
The actual makeup of the social roles certainly change but I think they broadly almost always fit the model I proposed above. Especially for men who in practically every society I've heard of are expected to prove themselves worthy through successfully demonstrating merit in some way. Which hunter gathering societies exactly do you observe male sexual success decouple from the ability to navigate the sexual market place? Of which being impressive to a girl's parents would certainly be an example. What do you even think status is? If what it took to get paired with a high status and attractive woman was very legible do you not think men would endeavor to game whatever the system was?
Your stuff through 2028 is already happening. People are already trying to do basically canned drop in tech workers at every software shop I'm aware of, you're basically just describing Claude code/cursor. Those start ups already exist. Models are already making big progress on erdos problems.
This has already happened. I'm baffled that you don't know that the models can now handle spreadsheets. They do so pretty well, especially after Opus 4.7.
This is a misunderstanding of how models improve. It's not a matter of finding more undiscovered java script code to ingest, much of it is now post training self play and should continue to improve as general model scale increases. Of course it's already perfectly capable of writing good javascript and has been for several models, the limitations are mostly in reasoning about larger chunks of the code context.
It's too bad Ilforte left because he'd eviscerate this. I tend to be less optimistic on the Chinese models than some but both Deepseek and Kimi have offerings that are comparable to sonnet 4.6 if you trust the benchmarks, I don't but fully expect them to have a sonnet 4.6 level model by end of 2026 and likely an opus 4.6 model by then. And you can run these models on rented hardware for pretty cheap. Although they'd be hard to run locally for a lot of complicated reasons that have to do with it being much more efficient to batch queries than run them individually. In any case though the weights are public and anyone can set up an api to sell tokens at affordable rates.
I'm skeptical of your ability to predict the future as you seem incapable of predicting the past.
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