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DelendaEst


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 14 19:15:00 UTC
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User ID: 1199

DelendaEst


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 2022 September 14 19:15:00 UTC

					

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User ID: 1199

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My intuition is that 'shit this didn't work' is more common, but also that 'shit this didn't work' happens a lot earlier in the development life cycle and thus the total losses are less per drug in the category, where as the costs for 'excess regulatory burden' happen at the end of the life cycle and thus are more onerous overall.

What I REALLY want to see is the percentage of drugs that make it to FDA testing and THEN fail. As in if we only did the required 'does it work' testing and not the amount required by the FDA how much time/money would it save and what would the false positive rate actually be. My first guess is that the savings would be significant, the false positive rate would be very low, and the only real loss would be fewer side effects listed on the bottle.

Would you even need to do that? Would a pre-paid card bought with cash not be able to do the trick?

Affirmative Action is discrimination against jews, asians, and whites (in that order). Should someone who has contributed a few hundred bucks to the democratic party which works in favor of that ALSO not be allowed to be a CEO? Or does this just apply to causes lefties care about?

Yeah, the defenestration of Brendan Eich was one of the first big moves of the Awokening. High level devs just tend to be lefties, it doesn't have to be all of them just enough to make it SEEM like its all of them and keep righties in the closet (and Damore the ones who don't), and the unaligned will mostly go along with whichever group seems to be in the majority.

I am much more hostile to trans than I am to gay, and more than I used to be. I wouldn't say I don't care if someone is trans or not, I will judge them and wouldn't want to hang out, but I am not here to police every dumb thing people do. So then I should be in favor of trans people being left alone right? I guess, but only if they will agree to leave me alone, and they certainly have not.

Demanding that society redefine gender to suit them even though it flies in the face of objective reality, trying to get men into women's only spaces, and otherwise trying to force everyone else to join them in their delusions is a hostile act, and I return it with hostility. If they want to be left alone and treated with anything other than hostility I say they can go first.

If you are in favor of ideals then Republican immigration policy sounds like it would be a better fit for you. In order for American Ideals to continue to be American Ideals we need to assimilate immigrants into them, and that means taking in a manageable flow, and preferably from all sorts of places. Too large a flow and the existing culture and ideals get diluted too quickly. Too much from a single source means they form enclaves which makes assimilation harder (I am especially thinking of the majority muslim areas of Michigan here). Republican policy preferences are the ones that will meet this goal the best.

I'd kinda hope not. If you do 100 polls you will get roughly that is a 1% outlier, and those have wacky results. By itself it is damning, but aggregated with everything else it comes out in the wash. If people are constantly second guessing their polls to guess if its real or outlier and only releasing the "real" ones then not only is the data untrustworthy but what is the point of the statistical confidence levels in the first place?

I think there is a very real chance that he knew very well who wrote the article but he didn't mention the name on purpose so as to not bring unwanted focus on Scott who he knew wouldn't want it.

Hard agree. Everytime my liberal friends get annoyed at me for being less anti-Trump than they are I remind them that as a Republican I have votes against him more than they have. I voted third party in 2016 and held my nose and votes for Biden in 2020. But this time I might vote Trump, mostly because I actually kinda like JD Vance and I think Trump is sufficiently uninterested in actually governing that Vance will get to drive a lot of the actual agenda, and I think there is about a 50/50 chance that Trump drops dead in office and Vance becomes President anyway. If I could vote for any of the four of Trump, Vance, Harris, or Walz it would be Vance by far so that factor might decide the "who is less shitty" contest for me. But how sad is that....

This is the good and the bad of AI art all wrapped up in one short post.

The Good: Low stakes things like rpg character art is now free to get quickly and at a pretty decent level of quality. Most people would never have paid for this and their having access to it is good. Even those who did pay for it before now get it cheaper, and with the ability to refine the prompts are more likely to get exactly what they want.

The Bad: Some people were paying for this, and it cuts the legs out from under those artists. I'd have more sympathy, but tons of people have gotten screwed by technological change or cheaper markets and this is special pleading. But at the same time, this is also the kind of thing people do when they are just getting into art. The first step to being good at something is being bad at it, and easy replacements which are superior to the Bad At It stage seem likely to demoralize/discourage people from working through this step cause why bother.

I also think this is why normies who are not artists and have only to gain from this change are still so rabidly anti-AI. Cause art is fun, and rewarding, and gives us a sense of accomplishment and helpfulness to the group even if its just a picture of our characters storming the castle. We always imagined the robots as mine labor, or housemaids, etc. because we wanted them to do the drudgery so we could all do art. Not have them take over all the art and leave us to do the manual labor.

Artists are engaged in special pleading, and they didn't care other people's ox got gored. But the reason people empathize more with them is that no one dreams of being a factory worker so who cares if the robots take those jobs. But if the robots take all the artist, novelist, musician, and philosopher jobs then what is there left for the post scarcity world except sitting on your ass watching netflix like those jerks in Wall-E?

I am pro-life, but I think its a good thing. It means Republicans are looking at what is feasible to do and trying to do that. Few things are as irritating as my side making the perfect the enemy of the good. Compromising too much is abandonment of principle, but standing on principle so firmly that you cede winnable ground to the enemy sort of is too. And now that abortion is not a constitutional matter it is always open to further changes so I'd rather take what I can get now and then keep working towards more later.

I saw some reporting a few days ago that speculated that part of the movement of black men towards the right (they will still vote Kamala at 80+% but still movement) was driven my crypto concerns. I'm not sure I buy that, but I'm guessing whomever wrote this press release did.

Nate Silver has written about how the Red Wave that never manifested was in fact never well supported by the polling data and instead was a result of just such an overcorrection so there is at least some evidence in that direction.

Changing the rules so that the reactors can be build much quicker is possible and I'd like to see much more effort put into that, but the main issue is that elections still happen. A nuclear plant is a huge investment that will take decades to pay off, and at any point a Democrat who wants to make the green lobby happy (or just one who views nuclear as a Red issue and wants to stick it to their enemies) can come along and pass new regulations and mess everything up. You cannot build the reactors without investment, and you cannot get the investment if the whole thing can be wrecked next election. Even if they somehow got everything fast tracked instead of needlessly slowed down and you could go from zero to operational in 4 years (meaning you could get it done before the next election) changes to operating regulations would still be a major risk.

You'd need to get bipartisan support and I just don't see any path to getting Democrats on board. You'd think "nuclear is the only realistic way to replace carbon" would be a winning pitch, but the left never wants to compromise from its preferred vision, and its vision is solar and wind.

If people are engaging in fraud what makes us think that they will be willing to steal an election but balk at back dating their fraudulent ballots?

The only reason the left doesn't call the right NPCs is because the NPC meme is right coded and everyone knows it so left wingers find the idea of using it icky.

Instead every comment that goes against the left wing hive mind is a bot. Same idea, different terminology. Kind of like how Red Pilled and Woke mean exactly the same thing (awake to realities that normies don't or won't see) but everyone who uses one hates the other.

I think there are also areas that are rural enough and mostly vacant and abandoned where you can form a homeless camp without anybody noticing easily, so there's less pressure to set up in populated areas.

I think this is probably a lot of it. Having a release valve to give people an option of doing something other than the most disruptive possible thing seems very helpful. If nothing else it means when the cops hassle them they have an option of a place to go where they won't be hassled and of course won't be bothering other people. If there are literally no options available which don't involve bothering normal productive people, then why not set up shop in downtown and shit directly onto the sidewalk. The cops having a middle option of "roust them out of here and into the out of the way encampment not bothering anyone" also means there is something for them to since all of the more serious remedies have been denied them.

We are from the same place, I saw that on the local reddit as well. Glad my kid is old enough that we don't go there on a regular basis anymore, but I just cannot fathom how the entire community losing something of value for the sake of letting crazy druggies roam around being a problem is just accepted. "Whelp, nothing to be done about it other than just accept things suck now." But there are quite a few things that can be done about it, and it makes me feel like I am taking crazy pills to see people insist otherwise.

Still, I think it is a more valuable signal than abstaining. I constantly see people who just assume non-voters would break heavily Dem if forced to choose a side, but it is really hard to say for sure what would happen. But votes for 3rd party show up in a countable way, and reduce the total votes of the winner. Reducing them to below 50% even in victory is a good way to send a signal that they didn't win, the other guy just lost.

It doesn't work that way. You cannot have your VP candidate call his opponents weird and creepy and engage in a coordinated campaign to label the opponent as weird and expect that to have zero effect on the valence of that word, especially on normies who don't get that you mean "people I don't like are weird which is gross, but actually weird people who are fine," a statement which doesn't even make sense on the face of it. And it definitely lights the entire concept of trying to fight bullying against weird kids on fire because impressionable youth won't hear anything except "weird is bad, the Vice President told me so."

I think you are just an asshole who is willing to burn the commons if it means you get to piss off your outgroup. As they say, the cruelty is point.

But dems made up the couch thing completely out of whole cloth, so the thing they lie about him having done makes him weird. Rs haven't made up anything about Walz yet, and the media wouldn't signal boost it if they had, so he is normal.

I usually see accusations of that phenomenon phrased as "it's (D)ifferent"

W got 2 nominees in 2 terms, but notably both were in his second term. So his first had zero.

I wanted Haley, and I like JD Vance just fine (much better than I like Trump) FWIW.

I am very happy to see 1 and 2, and very unhappy about number 3.

  1. I don't have strong feelings about the substance of this either way, but it is very nice to see someone responding to a SC ruling they don't like the way they are supposed to - passing a new law. The court says the law currently doesn't work the way you want it to, so change the law don't just fight about the court. I'd hope this succeeds this even though I don't care about the merits just because I want everyone to respond to SC rulings in this productive manner.

  2. I think this is good and I have been advocating this plan for years. Every President gets exactly 2 picks, they happen regularly every 2 years. This lowers the luck factor in the court both high and low, makes terms a little shorter which is probably good, and should as a result hopefully lower the tensions around Presidential elections on this front.

  3. WTF is this supposed to be. Impeachment is the answer to this, just like it is for Presidents and other electeds. This just seems like an attempt to get a set of seemingly neutral rules which can be wielded in an decidedly unneutral manner in order to be able to force the other side's justices out even though you don't have the votes to impeach.